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A non-American’s guide to the 2022 US midterms | CNN

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A non-American’s guide to the 2022 US midterms | CNN



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Can Joe Biden keep away from the midterm elections curse?

Republicans have the momentum going into Election Day on Tuesday, with excessive hopes of profitable again the Home. The Senate might be determined by a handful of shut races. If the GOP takes one or each chambers, they are going to be ready to kill Biden’s home legislative agenda. Nonetheless, they’ll wrestle to get insurance policies previous the president’s veto, which requires a two-thirds majority to override. The following two years may see America run by a divided authorities, with offended standoffs, monetary showdowns and partisan investigations.

Within the Home, all 435 seats are up for grabs, the place lawmakers serve two-year phrases. Democrats at the moment narrowly management the chamber, however Republicans want solely a internet achieve of 5 seats to take the bulk.

Within the 100-seat Senate, a complete of 35 seats are being contested. The chamber the place incumbents serve for six years is cut up 50-50, and Democrats at the moment have management since Vice President Kamala Harris wields a tie-breaking vote. However Republicans solely require a internet achieve of a single seat to take management.

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There are additionally a lot of different races to look at, together with 36 governorship contests, and lots of extra decrease positions. Races for state-level Secretaries of State have taken on further significance this 12 months, since they management state elections —together with the 2024 presidential race. There are additionally elections for state legislatures and poll initiatives on points together with entry to abortion, adjustments to voting techniques, gun management measures and the legalization of marijuana for recreation.

At each election, candidates inform voters that that is probably the most crucial election of their lifetimes. This time they could be proper.

A Republican wave would sweep in scores of candidates who swear by ex-President Donald Trump’s false claims that the 2020 election was stolen. The previous President would seemingly weaponize a Republican-controlled Home towards Biden forward of the 2024 presidential vote; Rep. Kevin McCarthy – who would seemingly change into Republican Speaker if Republicans win – has not dominated out impeaching Biden, regardless of the absence of any proof that he’s dedicated an impeachable offense.

A shock Democratic victory would enable Biden to construct upon his social, well being, and local weather change laws, and to steadiness out the judiciary with liberal judges after 4 years of Trump’s conservative picks.

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Kevin McCarthy requested about impeaching Biden if GOP wins Home. Hear his reply

The cliché, “It’s the financial system, silly,” which dates to Invoice Clinton’s 1992 presidential marketing campaign, is all over the place this election season. However it needs to be, “It’s inflation, silly.” The US value of dwelling is at a 40-year-high, placing voters in a disgruntled temper. Excessive gasoline costs haven’t helped both, and the sense of post-pandemic normality that Biden promised stays elusive.

The President has struggled to border the financial challenges into a powerful political message or to offer voters any confidence that costs will fall quickly. Some Democrats are actually asking whether or not their candidates ignored the true issues of voters by spending a lot time arguing that Republicans would destroy US democracy.

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Democrats had hoped that the conservative Supreme Court docket’s overturning of the appropriate to an abortion would trigger a backlash towards the GOP. This might play out in some areas – however the financial system has repeatedly been the dominant concern of voters in polling forward of Election Day.

Republicans haven’t needed to work too arduous — their technique has simply been responsible Biden for every part — regardless that inflation is being pushed principally by outdoors components just like the pandemic and the struggle in Ukraine. They’ve additionally branded Democratic positions on training, crime, and immigration as excessive and much left of the mainstream.

Home bellwethers: One of the simplest ways to look at outcomes roll in is to choose a number of bellwether races that may give a way of the place the election is headed. If Republicans begin profitable massive in suburban areas and Home districts the place Biden was much more standard than Trump in 2020, it’s a very good guess they’re heading for a banner night time.

FILE - Employees test voting equipment at the Miami-Dade County Elections Department, Oct. 19, 2022, in Miami, in advance of the 2022 midterm elections on November 8. Top U.S. election security officials say protecting the nation's voting systems has become increasingly more challenging. That's due mostly to the embrace by millions of Americans of unfounded conspiracy theories and false claims about widespread fraud in the 2020 presidential race. (AP Photo/Lynne Sladky, File)

Midterm elections: Listed below are the Home races to look at

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Given the slim margin within the Home, Republicans may successfully win the bulk by sweeping contested seats in a state like New York alone. One fateful battle is in a brand new seat created from the post-Census reapportionment – Colorado’s eighth Congressional District; if Republicans win, they’re on a roll.

One other tight race is in Virginia’s seventh District, the place former CIA officer and Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger is making an attempt to win reelection towards a Trumpy conservative, Republican Yesli Vega. If Democrats can maintain on on this redrawn district, which turned extra favorable for them in redistricting, it gained’t imply they’ll win the Home, however it may sign they maintain the GOP surge beneath landslide ranges. Spanberger, considered one of Democrats’ strongest incumbents, hasn’t hesitated to criticize the president or her social gathering.

And keep watch over Michigan’s seventh District, the place one other former CIA worker and Democratic Rep Elissa Slotkin is operating for reelection. Slotkin is a average who distanced herself from hovering progressive insurance policies and criticized her social gathering for not doing extra to deal with the financial ache Individuals face.

Senate battlegrounds: Within the Senate, keep watch over neck-and-neck battles in Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia. If Democratic Sen Maggie Hassan loses her reelection bid in New Hampshire, it’s a certain signal it’s the GOP’s night time.

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Pennsylvania represents the very best likelihood for Democrats to choose up a Republican-held seat, however their candidate John Fetterman had a stroke simply earlier than profitable the social gathering nomination in Could. Even off the marketing campaign path over the summer time, Fetterman had the higher hand towards his Republican challenger, however the pair’s current debate opened up new questions on how the lingering results of the stroke on the Democratic nominee.

Republicans try to win Democratic-held seats in Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia. If neither candidate in Georgia will get 50% of the vote, there might be a run-off in December, which means uncertainty over who runs the Senate for the subsequent two years may linger for weeks.

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These 3 races might decide the destiny of the Senate


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– Source:
CNN

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That is the primary nationwide election for the reason that cataclysm of 2020 when Trump refused to confess defeat and tried to remain in energy. Biden took workplace two weeks later with a message of therapeutic and nationwide unity. However his imaginative and prescient that America’s higher angels may carry a polarized nation collectively has fizzled. Trump nonetheless gained’t admit he misplaced, and is utilizing the lie that he was pressured illegally from energy to catapult an anticipated bid for reelection. Thousands and thousands of Individuals imagine him, creating depth amongst core supporters that would sweep the GOP again to energy in Congress.

One key growth to look at Tuesday is whether or not Republicans who lose their races concede, or like Trump insist they gained and cite non-existent poll irregularities. One other supply of stress will come up in races the place it seems Republicans are main vote counts till massive batches of early and mail-in ballots are tabulated suddenly. Trump used such a state of affairs to falsely solid doubts on the integrity of the 2020 election.

We don’t must guess. The GOP is already telling us it is going to make life depressing for Biden and attempt to destroy his hopes of reelection. McCarthy advised CNN in an unique interview that he plans to topic the White Home to a blistering spherical of investigations on every part from the origins of Covid-19 to the withdrawal from Afghanistan.

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McCarthy tells CNN first invoice can be on border safety if GOP wins Home

The GOP additionally plans to focus on Biden’s son Hunter over his enterprise dealings, and can search to discredit and disrupt the FBI and Justice Division investigations into Trump. Within the Senate, a Republican majority would make it terribly troublesome for Biden to substantiate cupboard appointments, key officers overseas ambassadors and judges. Count on a interval of acrimonious standoffs over budgets and the US authorities’s borrowing restrict — a disaster that would ship the worldwide financial system into deeper turmoil.

Historical past exhibits that newly elected presidents virtually at all times face a backlash within the midterm elections two years later. That’s why they jam prime legislative priorities into the beginning of their time period.

If Democrats don’t do as badly as some concern, Biden will get a lift as he contemplates whether or not to run for reelection. If Republicans win massive, contemporary questions will come up over his prospects in 2024.The president might be 80 in a number of weeks — an event to have a good time, but in addition an undesirable reminder of his personal political liabilities.

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It’s not all darkish for the president, although. His two Democratic predecessors Invoice Clinton and Barack Obama suffered debilitating rebukes from voters within the midterms, however recovered to win simple reelection two years later. The query is whether or not Biden has the vitality and political dexterity to make use of what can be an excessive Republican Congress as a foil.

The previous president has made the midterms a check of loyalty for Republicans, who’ve needed to pay for his endorsement by amplifying his false claims of election fraud in 2020. GOP leaders would have most well-liked that Trump keep out of the election fully — however that’s not how he rolls.

Trump was instrumental in his social gathering dropping the Home in 2018 and the Senate and the White Home in 2020, and it’s doable he’ll once more be a spoiler for the reason that protégés he picked in Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Ohio have massive liabilities as candidates. If Republicans do properly on Tuesday night time, Trump will take the credit score. In the event that they don’t meet expectations, he’ll blame everyone else.

Both means, the ex-President appears sure to run once more in 2024 — a marketing campaign that would set off a political meltdown since there’s an opportunity he’ll be indicted over his hoarding of categorized paperwork or over his malfeasance after the 2020 election.

However right here’s the underside line. A Republican win Tuesday, particularly within the Home, signifies that two years after he left in shame — Trumpism is again in energy.

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Airbus and Boeing near deal to carve up aerospace supplier Spirit AeroSystems

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Airbus and Boeing near deal to carve up aerospace supplier Spirit AeroSystems

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Airbus is nearing a deal with Spirit AeroSystems to take over parts of the aerospace supplier’s work on some of its key aircraft programmes, paving the way for Boeing to purchase the rest of the group.

Under the agreement, Airbus would take over the work that Spirit does for its A220 and A350 aircraft programmes at several sites around the world, including in Belfast in Northern Ireland, said several people familiar with the discussions.

Talks are “moving in the right direction”, these people said. An announcement could come as early as next week although they cautioned that it could yet slip as discussions continue on what is a complex agreement between the three companies. Boeing is expected to take over the bulk of Spirit’s operations, including its main facility in Kansas.

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Boeing has been in talks with Spirit since March as the US plane maker seeks to improve the supplier’s manufacturing processes after the mid-air blowout of a section of the main body of one of its 737 Max aircraft in January. Spirit supplies Boeing with the fuselages and both companies are undergoing an audit by the US’s aviation safety regulator.

News of the talks comes days after Boeing and Airbus acknowledged they included parts in their jets, purchased from Spirit, that were made with titanium whose certification documentation was counterfeit.

An agreement, however, has been complicated by the fact that the Kansas-based group is also a key supplier to Europe’s Airbus from sites including in Northern Ireland, Scotland and the US.

Spirit’s Belfast facilities build the wings and mid-fuselage sections for the A220 passenger jets. Some other A220 work is done at a site in Casablanca, Morocco. Spirit builds sections for the A350 wide-body jet in Kinston, North Carolina and Saint-Nazaire, France.

Airbus, which previously confirmed it was in talks with Spirit about potentially acquiring some of the activities the supplier carries out for it, has been focused on carving out the work for the A220 and A350 programmes, said the people briefed on the talks.

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The Belfast facilities are lossmaking. Analysts have suggested Airbus could agree to pay a nominal sum to take over the work on the A220 programme subject to due diligence.

Spirit also does work for other aviation customers at its sites. Belfast manufactures the fuselage sections and other critical components for a range of business jets built by Canada’s Bombardier.

Unions in Northern Ireland have raised concerns over a break-up of the Belfast operations, which span six sites and employ more than 3,000 people. They are integral to the region’s thriving aerospace industry and are part of the historic Short Brothers factory.

Unite, the union representing the vast majority of Spirit workers across the UK, said it was seeking urgent assurance that the Belfast and Prestwick operations would be acquired intact with no loss of jobs.

“The livelihoods of workers must not be put at risk as corporate giants carve up the future of this company,” Unite general secretary Sharon Graham said. “It is vital that all workers are quickly given cast iron guarantees over their futures.”

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Spirit reported a net loss of $617mn in the first quarter after Boeing slowed operations at its 737 Max factory in Washington state and stopped accepting flawed fuselages from the Kansas supplier, in an effort to improve the quality of Boeing’s own manufacturing processes. The supplier last reported an annual profit in 2019.

Boeing declined to comment. Spirit said the company remained “focused on providing the best-quality products for our customers”.

Airbus said it was in discussions with Spirit “to protect the sourcing of our programmes and to define a more sustainable way forward, both operationally and financially, for the various Airbus work packages that Spirit AeroSystems is responsible for today”.

Reuters first reported that talks were nearing an agreement.

Additional reporting by Jude Webber in Belfast.

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Gateway Church members return to services this weekend, minus Robert Morris

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Gateway Church members return to services this weekend, minus Robert Morris

NORTH TEXAS — Mid-June 2024 is likely a time members of the Gateway Church won’t soon forget. The megachurch cringed at a different revelation of founding pastor Robert Morris.

Congregants from six locations head back into the sanctuary for healing and answers.

In a message posted on the church’s website, the elders reached out to members.

“This is an unthinkable and painful time in our church. Our church congregation is hurt and shaken, and we know that you have many important questions,” Elders said. “We want to answer as many of your questions as we can at this point, and we ask that you continue to extend us grace as we navigate through the most challenging time in Gateway’s history.”

The Watchburg Watch published Cindy Clemishire’s recollection of sexual abuse by Morris. She said it started on December 25, 1982, and continued until March 1987. The story gained steam in The Christian Post.

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Gateway was not a church at the time. Morris was an evangelist on the road with his wife. According to an initial statement from the nine elders at Gateway, “Pastor Robert has been open and forthright about a moral failure he had over 35 years ago when he was in his twenties and prior to him starting Gateway Church.”

The elders said Morris had spoken openly in the pulpit about the proper steps he took for restoration, including a two-year hiatus from ministry to get professional and freedom ministry.

“I was involved in inappropriate sexual behavior with a young lady in a home I was staying,” Morris said. “It was kissing and petting and not intercourse, but it was wrong.”

The former Gateway leader said the relationship continued into March 1987 and came to light when he said he confessed, repented, and submitted to elders of Shady Grove Church in addition to the young lady’s father.

Clemishire pushed back in an interview with CBS News Texas.

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“Young lady? I was not a young lady. I was a little girl. I was 12,” she said.

The alleged victim said he told her not to tell anyone or it would ruin everything.

By June 18, Morris had resigned from running the church, which is said to have as many as 100,000 members. He also stepped down as chancellor and the Board of Trustees of Kings University. The preacher also gave up his spiritual oversight over his daughter and son-in-law’s church in Houston.

“…Please be praying for those affected, including Cindy Clemishire, her family, the Morris family, Gateway members, staff, and others,” Elders said in the latest statement. 

Services at six of the church’s campuses are on Saturday at 4 p.m.

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Wealthy foreigners step up plans to leave UK as taxes increase

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Wealthy foreigners step up plans to leave UK as taxes increase

Increasing numbers of wealthy foreigners say they are leaving the UK in response to the abolition of the “non-dom” regime that allowed them to avoid paying tax on overseas income. 

The change — backed by both the Conservative and Labour parties — has contributed to a relative decline in the UK’s attractiveness, according to over a dozen interviews with wealthy foreigners and their advisers. Other deterrents cited include Brexit, fiscal and political instability, and concerns around security. 

“Brexit happened and the Conservatives promised to make the UK like Singapore and instead they turned this place into Belarus,” said a billionaire businessman who has lived in London for 15 years and is now moving his tax residency to Abu Dhabi. “Security is now a major issue and another contributing factor to the tax reasons for why people are wanting to leave.”

In March chancellor Jeremy Hunt stole one of the opposition Labour party’s flagship fiscal policies when he announced the abolition of the non-dom regime. 

Labour shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves followed with proposals to toughen the planned crackdown, notably reversing a Tory decision to permit non-doms who will lose benefits from next April to shield foreign assets held in an offshore trust from inheritance tax permanently. 

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Polls have put Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour party on track for victory in the general election on July 4. 

“The UK’s inheritance tax of 40 per cent on your global assets is a real problem,” said a European non-dom businessman in his 50s, who is moving his family from London to Switzerland after more than a decade in the UK. “It’s the overall instability that has been the nail in the coffin for me. If there was a more balanced, less punitive inheritance tax I might have considered staying.” 

While Starmer has sought to position Labour as the “party of wealth creation”, the non-dom changes mark one of several potential tax increases under a Labour government. 

While Labour has committed not to raise income tax, national insurance, corporation tax or VAT, the party insists it has “no plans” to raise capital gains tax or inheritance tax or levy any form of wealth tax, but refuses to rule them out. Rachel Reeves, shadow chancellor, told the Financial Times this week: “We’re not seeking a mandate to increase people’s taxes.”

A party official said “nobody has seen” a supposed Labour memo, reported by the Guardian, which outlined that the party was mulling plans to increase the rate of CGT in line with income tax and cap business and agricultural land inheritance tax relief. Labour officials said the report appeared to be based on research by the Institute for Fiscal Studies and Tax Policy Associates.

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Trevor Abrahmsohn, director of Glentree Properties, a London estate agent, said there had been a steady decline in inquiries for £10mn properties, which he attributed to “higher interest rates and anticipated changes to the non-dom regime”. He added: “As more high-end property comes on to the market, I expect there to be fewer buyers and for prices to fall.” 

Indian vaccine billionaire Adar Poonawalla last month told the FT that the non-dom change had harmed the UK. “Some people are willing to pay that cost like I am, but most others aren’t,” said Poonawalla, head of the Serum Institute of India. “They can easily move out.”

There were 68,800 individuals claiming non-dom status on their tax returns in 2022, according to the most recent estimates from HM Revenue & Customs, the UK tax agency, but a lag in the data makes it impossible to gauge recent moves.

“There is no hard and fast data on non-dom departures but there’s a real buzz at the moment around people both considering leaving and actually going,” said Fiona Fernie, a partner at tax and accounting firm Blick Rothenberg. “There’s been a definite marker put down by both parties that non-doms are targets and whatever benefits perceived to be given to them is going to be significantly reduced. This is a catalyst for departures.”

One French investor in his 40s said that “any foreigner in the UK who has the option to leave is doing so because of the end of the non-dom regime”. He is moving from London to Milan early next year, lured by a system that was announced by Italy in 2017 that exempts foreign income from Italian tax in exchange for the payment of €100,000 a year. Returning to France was “out of the question”, he added, given the current political situation. 

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A crackdown on the non-dom regime began eight years ago under then Conservative chancellor George Osborne. He tightened the regime so that from April 2017 foreign residents who had lived in Britain for more than 15 of the past 20 years were deemed domiciled in the UK.

Since then other European jurisdictions — including France, Italy and Portugal — have gone in the opposite direction, launching comparable non-dom or impatriation regimes to attract wealthy families, increasing competition with traditional havens such as Monaco and Switzerland.

Italy, Switzerland, Malta and the Middle East are currently the most popular destinations for those leaving the UK, according to advisers.

While non-doms do not pay tax on their offshore earnings, they are taxed on their UK income. Proponents of the regime argue that non-doms bring skills, jobs and investment to Britain.

The American School in London is concerned about future enrolment as a result of the non-dom abolition, according to two people familiar with the situation. The American School declined to comment.

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A French businessman in his 50s who is resident in Switzerland said he had started the process of moving part of his business to the UK but backtracked after the government announced it would abolish the non-dom regime. 

“The Conservatives have sent a very strong signal that they don’t want foreigners here any more and Labour won’t do anything to change that. I’m 100 per cent sure I’m not going to come back.” 

He added: “Was the non-dom regime a fair system? No it wasn’t. Was it efficient? Yes it was.” 

Fears of a tougher tax regime are also causing some UK nationals to look at leaving the country. Henley & Partners, which advises on residence and citizenship, said it had received a three-fold increase in inquiries from UK nationals between 2022 and 2023 and a 25 per cent year-on-year increase in the first half of this year.

“A lot of the inquiries we’re getting at the moment in the London office are based on the fact that Labour will come in and what might happen on the back of that,” says Dominic Volek, group head of private clients at Henley & Partners.

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