Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are locked in a dead heat in the battleground state of Wisconsin, according to an exclusive new USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll.

With roughly a week until Election Day, Trump and Harris are almost tied in Wisconsin, 48% to 47%, the statewide poll of 500 likely voters found. The results are within the poll’s margin of error of 4.4 percentage points. The poll was conducted Oct. 20 to 23.

But in Door County, Wisconsin, which has been a bellwether for the state, Harris has a slight edge. Harris leads Trump in that area, 50% to 47%, the poll of 300 likely Door County voters found. The results are still within the margin of error of 5.7 percentage points.

Wisconsin, which has 10 electoral votes, is among several important swing states that both Trump and Harris are eyeing to help catapult them to the presidency.

The state is regarded as a “Blue Wall” state – along with Michigan and Pennsylvania — that for decades were Democratic bulwarks. Trump in 2016 flipped all three of the states, helping him win the presidency. In 2020, Biden won all three states back.

Most voters in Wisconsin have already made up their minds, with only 2% saying they’re still undecided.

One voter, Robert Olin of Milwaukee, said he will be voting for Trump because he’s disappointed with how the current administration has handled multiple policies – from the economy, to foreign policy in the Middle East, to issues at the U.S.-Mexico border. He said he believes Trump’s policies would improve the country.

“I strongly agree with his position of healing the country, becoming a country that follows its laws, that’s not being run by media or other parties, and that recognizes that there are practical ways to solve the economic problems,” Olin, 68, said of Trump. He voted for Trump in the last election, too.

For Olin, the high costs across the country have impacted him personally. He owns a coffee shop and said high inflation since the pandemic has “been very, very dramatic” on his business. The cost of operations to keep his business running have gone up and now, buying a cup of coffee has become a luxury for most customers.

“When our business is hurting, I’m hurting,” he said. 

But Mary Beth LaHaye, also of Milwaukee, is planning to cast her ballot for Harris. The 70-year-old said she is impressed with Harris’ “willingness to work across the aisle and bring both sides back together.” 

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“Our political system right now is broken,” LaHaye said. She said her top priorities are seeing Social Security and Medicare remain intact, as well as restoring reproductive rights. 

LaHaye, who voted for President Joe Biden in 2020, said she’s concerned with Trump’s rhetoric and whether he would accept the election results.

“I know that if Trump were to win, Kamala Harris is not going to storm the Capitol,” she said. “But if Kamala Harris wins, I don’t know what President Trump could possibly say that might incite people to act violently, as he did on January 6, (2021).”

A wider gender gap

While there is typically a gender gap between supporters of Trump and Harris, David Paleologos, director of Suffolk University Political Research Center, said the effects of the gap are more pronounced in the state.

In Wisconsin, Harris has a 14-point edge over Trump among women, 55% to 41%. But Trump is up 18 percentage points among men over Harris, 56% to 38%.

Harris’ margin of support among women is slightly behind the support she has across the nation, while Trump’s edge among men remains consistent. Nationwide, Harris has a 17-point edge over Trump among women voters, 53% to 36%, according to the latest USA TODAY/Suffolk University national poll. Among men, Trump has a 16 percentage point edge of Harris nationwide, 53% to 37%.

“(Trump) is identifying, or that, men are mobilizing behind Trump more than they did when Biden ran against Trump,” Paleologos said.

Paul Zarling, of Brookfield, Wisc., said he is voting for Trump because the former president already has a proven record. He added that he isn’t sure what Harris has done as vice president and feels like she has flip-flopped on issues.

“He was president before nothing happened, there was no doom and gloom,” said Zarling, 47, who has typically voted for Republicans in the past.

Mary Kay Wagner, 69, of South Milwaukee, already cast her ballot for Harris in this election. Wagner, who considers herself an Independent, voted for Biden in 2020. She said she believes Harris can improve the economy, as well as help restore access to abortion.

“The reasons I voted for her is that she is taking a very pragmatic approach to the issues that the country faces,” Wagner said. “Knowing that if we’re going to have a dynamic and growing economy, that makes it possible for everyone to thrive.”

In Door County, Paleologos attributed the gender gap, as well as a higher median age level, as the reason why the county may be trending better for the vice president.

“The demographics of Door County may deviate a little bit more than a typical bellwether in this election,” he said. “So I think that’s the reason why the bellwether is a little bit more Democratic friendly.”

Some voters still divided – and dissatisfied 

Although a majority of voters have already made their decision, there is still a small portion of voters in the state who still don’t know who they will support for president.

Susan Sauerberg, of Cedarburg, said access to abortions and women’s reproductive health are policies that are high on her list – and something she believes Trump will make even harder for women. But when it comes to foreign policy, especially Israel’s war in Gaza, Sauerberg doesn’t know if Harris can handle it.

“I’ll vote,” Sauerberg, 60, said. “I might just say a prayer and go with what my gut says at that moment.”

And for Samuel Beaver, a 20-year-old college student living in Madison, neither Trump nor Harris were a good option for him. Beaver, whose mom is Nicaraguan, said Trump was never an option for him because of his comments and policies around immigration. But Harris, he said, has walked back a lot of her policies, including on trans rights and gender affirming care.

Beaver said that he will be voting for the Green Party’s Jill Stein instead.

“The most pressing issue on my mind is like the United States’ foreign policy, specifically, like the dissimilarity between the Republican Party and the Democratic Party,” he said. “I feel like they both do the same actions.”

Sarah Paul, a 43-year-old resident of Random Lake, said she will be voting for Harris. She supports Harris’ passion for abortion access and LGBTQ issues, and believes Trump’s demeaning words about members of the military and people with disabilities is “not what a president should do.”

“Our choices aren’t perfect,” she said. “They rarely ever are.”

Wisconsin (5-3, 3-2 Big Ten) has opened as a 3.5-point underdog against Iowa (5-3, 3-2) ahead of their Week 10 matchup at Kinnick Stadium.

The Badgers are coming off a disappointing result in Saturday’s 28-13 home loss to No. 3 Penn State. They led 10-7 at halftime and trailed 14-13 heading into the fourth quarter, but then allowed two long touchdown drives in the final period and couldn’t muster the offense to hang with one of the best teams in the country. Braedyn Locke was just 22 of 42 and threw a pick-six in the loss. Tawee Walker averaged 2.7 yards per carry.

The Hawkeyes, meanwhile, thrashed a bad Northwestern team 40-14 in Iowa City, running for over 200 yards and four touchdowns. They forced three turnovers, held the Wildcats to 163 yards of offense, and had all of their 40 points by the end of the third quarter.

This is a big game for both teams, who will looking to go to 4-2 and remain in the hunt in the Big Ten standings. It also happens to be a nationally-televised primetime game.

Wisconsin has a slight 49-46-2 lead in the rivalry series against Iowa. The Badgers won six of seven between 2013 and 2019, but the Hawkeyes have won two in a row and three of the last four. This year’s battle for The Heartland Trophy should be a good one.

5 things that stood out from Wisconsin’s loss to Penn State

Penn State has been a third-quarter team this season and will need to be one again to hold off Wisconsin and remain unbeaten. The Badgers lead Penn State 10-7 at halftime at Camp Randall Stadium after putting the Nittany Lions under plenty of duress early.

No. 3 Penn State has outscored opponents 59-3 in its six third quarters this season, allowing only a field goal to USC two weeks ago. The Nittany Lions (6-0) began the game with two dynamic drives, the second of which produced a superb touchdown catch from running back Nicholas Singleton and the other ended in a turnover. After that, though, Penn State managed just 45 yards of offense and watched quarterback Drew Allar limp into the locker room early.

Penn State has 30 minutes to reach 7-0 before hosting Ohio State next week. A look at the first half.

A stressful ending for Penn State’s offense

The Nittany Lions’ first two drives were sharp in terms of playcalling and ball movement. But for a drop, the first could have produced a touchdown, which the second did. However, Wisconsin’s defense dialed up more pressure on quarterback Drew Allar after that, punctuating the half with a key sack that prompted the quarterback into a slight limp that sent him to the locker room early.

Allar, who completed nine of his first 10 passes, looked increasingly more frustrated as the second quarter wore on. And after a first-down sack, he got up with a slight limp and walked off gingerly after two ensuing incompletions. Allar began the third quarter on the sldeline, wearing a knee brace, and Beau Pribula took over at quarterback.

Braedyn Locke finds a groove

After a sluggish, 2-for-7 start, Wisconsin quarterback Braedyn Locke sharpened his throws in the second quarter. He led a 10-play, 73-yard touchdown drive, completing three consecutive passes, including a pair to Will Pauling, before Tawee Walker scored on a 1-yard run 1:23 before halftime. The scoring drive benefited from a critical Penn State mistake: The Nittany Lions had 12 defenders on the field on a third-down stop before Walker’s touchdown.

Nicholas Singleton’s acrobatic touchdown catch

Penn State running back Nicholas Singleton wasn’t the best receiver in his backfield last year. That was fellow tailback Kaytron Allen. But Singleton spent the offseason upgrading that part of his game, with superb results.

Singleton made a spectacular one-handed touchdown catch in the second quarter, corralling a pass Allar floated into tight coverage. The catch was his second of the half; Singleton ended the first quarter by taking an Allar outlet throw 27 yards to get into the red zone. The touchdown catch, though, was an elite receiving play.

Penn State’s run game starts silently

The Nittany Lions have not run the ball well for 2-and-a-half games. Singleton and Allen combined for 38 yards in the first half, continuing a theme that began with the doubleheader against the California schools. Penn State averaged more than 250 yards rushing through the first four weeks but combined for just 203 yards against UCLA and USC.

Dropped passes blunt offenses

Wisconsin receivers dropped four first-half passes to stall several drives, including a potential scoring opportunity in the first quarter. One came when Penn State freshman safety Dejuan Lane put a shoulder on Wisconsin’s Trech Kekahuna downfield.

Penn State also had a huge drop on its opening series from Julian Fleming, who had been so sure-handed on his last three catches. Fleming, whose fourth-down catches were vital at USC, began the game with a 3rd-and-five conversion. Later in the drive he was wide open with the ball on his fingertips and the end zone in his sight. Fleming turned his head too quickly, though, and dropped the potential touchdown pass. On fourth down, Allar couldn’t collect a quick Nick Dawkins snap, and Wisconsin recover the fumble at its 28-yard line.

Wisconsin’s quirky opening drive

Locke went 2-for-7 on Wisconsin’s first series but a strong throw on 3rd-and-15 to keep alive the drive. Then came one of the savviest plays you”ll see from a punter. Penn State’s Jalen Kimber had a free rush to the block, but Wisconsin’s Atticus Bertrans calmly tucked the ball, reset to punt again and saw uncovered field. He ran for 15 yards on 4th-and-9 for the improbable conversion.

That set up kicker Nathanial Vakos for a 50-yard field goal, giving the Badgers a 3-0 lead.

More Penn State Football

Penn State’s Drew Allar is a “different quarterback” this season, NBC’s Todd Blackledge says

What’s next for Tyler Warren, Penn State’s “one of a kind” tight end?

A huge Gatorade ad featuring Nicholas Singleton debuted in State College this week. Columnist Ben Jones on what it means

Cornerback Jalen Kimber played at Georgia and Florida before transferring to Penn State. He did so intent on “upholding the tradition” of the Nittany Lions’ secondary