The Indiana legislature’s rejection of a new map that would have added two Republican seats in Congress marked one of the biggest political defeats for Donald Trump so far in his second term and significantly damaged the Republican effort to reconfigure congressional districts ahead of next year’s midterm elections.

The defeat showed that Trump’s political might is not unlimited. For months, the president waged an aggressive effort to twist the arms of Indiana lawmakers into supporting a new congressional map, sending JD Vance to meet in person with lawmakers. Trump allies also set up outside groups to pressure state lawmakers.

Heritage Action, the political arm of the Heritage Foundation, which has close ties to the Trump administration, issued a dramatic threat this week ahead of the vote: if the new map wasn’t passed, Indiana would lose federal funding. “Roads will not be paved. Guard bases will close. Major projects will stop. These are the stakes and every NO vote will be to blame,” the group posted on X. The state’s Republican lieutenant governor said in a since-deleted X post that Trump administration officials made the same threat.

All of that may have backfired, as Republican state senators publicly said they were turned off by the threats and weathered death threats and swatting attempts as they voted the bill down.

“You wouldn’t change minds by being mean. And the efforts were mean-spirited from the get-go,” Jean Leising, an Indiana Republican state senator who voted against the bill, told CNN. “If you were wanting to change votes, you would probably try to explain why we should be doing this, in a positive way. That never happened, so, you know, I think they get what they get.”

Nationally, the defeat complicates the picture for Republicans as they seek to redraw districts to shore up their majority in an increasingly messy redistricting battle. The effort began earlier this year when Trump pushed Texas Republicans to redraw the state’s congressional map to pick up GOP seats, a highly unusual move since redistricting is usually done once at the start of the decade.

“This isn’t the first time a Republican state legislature has resisted pressure from the White House, but it is the most significant, both because of the over-the-top tactics President Trump and speaker Johnson employed, and also the fact that there were two seats on the line,” said Dave Wasserman, an expert in US House races who writes for the non-partisan Cook Political Report. “It changes the trajectory of this redistricting war from the midpoint of possible outcomes being a small, being a modest Republican gain to a wash.”

Republicans in Texas and Democrats in California have both redrawn their maps to add as many as five seats for their respective parties, cancelling each other out. Republicans in North Carolina and Missouri have also redrawn their congressional districts to add one Republican seat apiece in each of those states. The Missouri map, however, may be blocked by a voter initiated referendum (Republicans are maneuvering to undercut the initiative). Democrats are also poised to pick up a seat in Utah after a court ruling there (state lawmakers are seeking a way around the ruling).

Ohio also adopted a new map that made one Democratic district more competitive, and made a new Democratic friendly and Republican friendly district out of two different competitive districts.

The biggest remaining opportunity to pick up seats for Democrats is in Virginia, where they currently represent six of the state’s 11 congressional districts. Don Scott, the House speaker, has said Democrats are considering adding a map that adds four Democratic seats in the state. Republicans could counter that in Florida with a new congressional map that could add as many as five Republican seats. There is also pending litigation challenging a favorable GOP congressional map in Wisconsin.

The close tit-for-tat has placed even more significance on a supreme court case from Louisiana that could wind up gutting a key provision in the Voting Rights Act that prevents lawmakers from drawing districts that weaken the influence of Black voters. After oral argument, the court appeared poised to significantly curtail the measure, which could pave the way for Louisiana, Alabama, and other southern states to wipe out districts currently represented by Democrats. It’s unclear if the supreme court will issue its decision in time for the midterm elections.

“The timing of that decision is a huge deal with two to four seats on the line,” Wasserman said. “We haven’t seen the last plot twist in this redistricting war, but the outlook is less rosy for Republicans than it was at the start.”

Another round of snow swept through Iowa, leaving more than 3 inches in some parts of the state.

For the 22nd consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction, as well as MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Kansas City Royals.

Batters

For the Royals, 2025 was about the season that was expected. Bobby Witt Jr. was amazing and the starting rotation was very good, but the team was held back as a result of getting pretty much no production out of the second base, outfield, and designated hitter positions. ZiPS projected the Royals for 83 wins, and they won 82. Normally, that would make a team a real contender in the AL Central, but the Tigers played like an elite team in the first half and the Guardians did the same in the second half, leaving the division always too far out of reach for the Royals.

While Kansas City had some serious problems, especially in those trouble spots mentioned above, it was generally encouraging how the team dealt with it. I stand by every word I said about the outfield back in February. The idea to just roll with Hunter Renfroe and MJ Melendez after their terrible 2024 seasons was a massive missed opportunity. But the good thing is that the Royals were quick to jettison both and get looks at other players who showed a lot of promise (Jac Caglianone) or at least had some upside (Drew Waters). Now, these moves didn’t actually pan out in the short term, but it’s always better to try something that might work over something that almost definitely won’t.

ZiPS doesn’t really like the outfield this time around either, but it does think that there are enough defense and platoon advantages in the various players slated to man the grass that the Royals could eke out respectable production from the group, certainly quite a lot more than they got last year. And this is important, because every win for a team with a projected total in the low-to-mid-80s, especially a team in a Central division, has tremendous value. Even better would be a much bigger acquisition to boost at least one of the positions, but failing that, ZiPS doesn’t see either left or right field as unmitigated disasters this time around (though Steamer is less optimistic).

Witt Jr. is the straw that stirs the drink, of course, but beyond that, this was the season I think Maikel Garcia clearly established himself as an All-Star level third baseman. He finally turned that good plate discipline and hard-hit numbers into real production, and he’s Gold Glove-worthy at the hot corner. Expect both players on the left side of the infield to keep things up in 2026. Another positive: The Royals could see some improvement at second base. ZiPS thinks that Michael Massey is better than his 2025 performance indicates. My inclination might be to use Massey as a super-sub type, and just stick Jonathan India at second and leave him there; there’s no reason to pretend India’s a corner outfielder, as the team did at times this past season.

I was a big advocate for the Royals’ being aggressive with Caglianone’s promotion, and I still think it was the right thing to do. It remains to be seen if he can contribute defensively anywhere, but he ought to hit better than he did in his debut campaign; it’s hard to imagine he could do worse than his horrifying 46 wRC+. The problem is the Royals can’t afford to just stick Cags at DH every day. They need to leave that open for Salvador Perez to get spot starts when he’s not wearing a glove in some sort of timeshare with Carter Jensen behind the plate and Vinnie Pasquantino at first. You shouldn’t be alarmed by the top comp for Caglianone. Costen Shockley didn’t hit for the Angels initially, and after a dispute about whether or not they told him they weren’t going to demote him, they sent him to the minors; in response, after having just moved his family out to California, he peaced out from baseball at age 23.

And you better not be upset about the Witt top comp. Dickie Thon was absolutely terrific until a Mike Torrez fastball shattered his face; he was never the same after that. Don’t worry, ZiPS isn’t forecasting Witt to suffer the same fate!

Pitchers

In the projection table, the rotation tops out at 2.2 WAR, from Cole Ragans. However, this understates the quality of this group of starters, as ZiPS is understandably squeamish about projecting big innings totals from Ragans and Kris Bubic. A full season for Ragans would put his WAR safely over three. The same is true for Bubic, though rotator cuff injuries always make me a bit worried.

The rest of the rotation, Seth Lugo, Noah Cameron, and Michael Wacha projects out as comfortably average-plus, and I don’t think it’s a stretch to put Kansas City’s starting staff at the back of the top 10 in baseball. Ryan Bergert and Stephen Kolek won’t scare anyone, but they’re perfectly reasonable emergency replacements, and both Bailey Falter and Daniel Lynch IV are at least plausible options if injuries plague the starting five.

The bullpen projects as a middle-of-the-pack unit at the moment. ZiPS remains a fan of Hunter Harvey, but injuries ruined his 2025 season, and he’s currently a free agent. Otherwise, ZiPS pegs the Royals as having a quintet of B+ relievers in Carlos Estévez, Lucas Erceg, John Schreiber, Angel Zerpa, and Alex Lange, but doesn’t think they have a true lights-out closer. Overall, this pen comes out aggressively mid, and a depth addition or two would be welcome.

Right now, ZiPS projects the Royals to finish with somewhere between 82-86 wins or so, depending on the assumptions. That makes them relevant in the AL Central and a second-tier wild card contender. There’s still time for them to do more to get over the hump.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here. Size of player names is very roughly proportional to Depth Chart playing time. The final team projections may differ considerably from our Depth Chart playing time.

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2026 due to injury, and players who were released in 2025. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Ambient Math-Rock Trip-Hop Yacht Metal band that only performs in abandoned malls, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.16.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR. It is important to remember that ZiPS is agnostic about playing time, and has no information about, for example, how quickly a team will call up a prospect or what veteran has fallen into disfavor.

As always, incorrect projections are either caused by misinformation, a non-pragmatic reality, or by the skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter or on Bluesky. This last is, however, not an actual requirement.