Ohio
Ohio State vs. Nebraska score prediction by expert college football model
An important Big Ten football matchup kicks off on Saturday as No. 4 Ohio State returns home against Nebraska in college football’s Week 9 action. Let’s take a look at the latest prediction for the game from an expert model that projects scores and picks winners.
Ohio State fell to 2-1 in Big Ten play after a 1-point loss at Oregon and is back in the Horseshoe looking to build some confidence heading into another tough road date against Penn State next weekend with the team’s playoff hopes potentially hanging in the balance.
Nebraska skidded to a 2-2 mark in conference games after getting punched in the mouth by Indiana in a 56-7 decision and embarks on the second straight road game against a ranked conference opponent looking to make what would be one of the biggest upsets of the season.
What do the analytical models suggest for when the Buckeyes and Cornhuskers meet in this Big Ten clash?
For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Ohio State and Nebraska compare in this Week 9 college football game.
As expected, the models are siding strongly with the Buckeyes over the Cornhuskers this week.
SP+ predicts that Ohio State will defeat Nebraska by a projected score of 33 to 11 and to win the game by an expected margin of 22 points in the process.
The model gives the Buckeyes a strong 92 percent chance of outright victory.
SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”
How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 211-194-4 against the spread with a 52.1 win percentage after going 31-27-1 (53.4%) last weekend.
Ohio State is a 25.5 point favorite against Nebraska, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.
FanDuel lists the total at 47.5 points for the game (Over -115, Under -105).
And it set the moneyline odds for Ohio State at -7000 and for Nebraska at +2000 to win outright.
If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take …
If you do, you’ll be in the minority of bettors who are taking the Cornhuskers this week, according to the latest spread consensus picks.
62 percent of wagers currently project that Ohio State will win the game and cover the spread in the process.
Nebraska is getting 38 percent of bets to either win the game in an upset, or more likely, to keep the final score under this generous line.
Ohio State has been 41.3 points better than its opponents when playing at home so far this season.
And the Buckeyes have been 19.3 points better than the opposition on average over its last three games overall.
Nebraska has averaged 15.5 points worse than its opponents when playing on the road in 2024.
And the Cornhuskers are averaging 8 points worse overall over the last three games, with last week’s 49-point loss at Indiana playing a big role in determining that average.
Most other analytical models are also favoring the Buckeyes over the Cornhuskers in this game.
That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.
Ohio State is projected to win the game in the overwhelming 96.5 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.
That leaves Nebraska as the expected winner in the remaining 3.5 percent of sims.
Ohio State is projected to be 29.5 points better than Nebraska on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.
Ohio State is second among Big Ten teams with a 77.2 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.
That model gives the Buckeyes a win total prediction of 10.6 games this season.
Nebraska is expected to have an 85.3 percent chance at becoming eligible for a bowl game this year.
FPI gives the Cornhuskers a win total projection of 6.5 games in ‘24.
When: Sat., Oct. 26
Time: 12 p.m. ET | 11 a.m. CT
TV: Fox network
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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Ohio
Color in the dark: Ohio artists’ ties to Cuba’s American-made blackout
COLUMBUS, Ohio (WCMH) — Ohio artist David Griesmyer said the colorful, resilient Cuba he’s frequented looked different his most recent trip as the island nation continues under a U.S.-induced blackout.
“To see the whole nation just plunge into darkness, it was odd,” Griesmyer said. “But then to see all the grandmas holding up battery powered lights in the dark and seeing children kicking a makeshift ball down the streets through the city, everybody was outside talking … It didn’t stop them. They’re there. There’s a fire inside of that. But it was dark. It was dark.”
The darkness was brought on by an American fuel blockade that has created a nationwide blackout and brought the tourism industry to a screeching halt. President Donald Trump has commented about a possible takeover of Cuba, where residents are living without power, heat or clean water.
The issue is front of mind for 60 Ohio artists, business and government leaders who traveled to the Havana Bienal last year, a prestigious international art festival. Ohio artists with close ties to the Cuban art scene want Ohioans to think about Cuba’s people, not its politics, as the blackout goes on.
“They are so resilient,” Michael Reese, Columbus art consultant, said. “And I just believe tomorrow’s going to be better because if they don’t go down the rabbit hole, they’ll never get out. So they just push on.”
The U.S. has maintained an economic embargo on Cuba since the 1960s, when Cuba became the center of a Cold War confrontation between two superpowers. In 1962, the Soviet Union attempted to deploy nuclear weapons to Cuba, which sits 90 miles away from the southern tip of the U.S. The attempt led to the 16-day Cuban Missile Crisis, considered the closest the Cold War came to using nuclear arms.
Cuba has been under U.S. embargo since, but the situation turned dire in January when the U.S. cut off access to Venezuela, Cuba’s main oil supplier. The U.S. has also blocked fuel and product deliveries from trading partners like Mexico.
In capital city Havana, home to 2 million people, residents are living without ways to keep food cold or operate water treatment plants. Residents can only cook using charcoal grills and have no internet access. Ohio documentarian Tariq Tarey is making a film about the Cuban people and said outside Havana, resources are scarcer.
“It is literally dark ages. Water scarce, internet is gone for weeks on end. Horse and buggy is the only thing that’s moving,” Tarey said. “It is dire. It’s absolutely dire.”
It had already been difficult to get items before the blackout. The coalition who attended the Bienal each brought a second suitcase stuffed with necessities to give away. Tarey recalled visiting a Cuban clinic and noting medical equipment that read “Made in East Germany,” a nation that has not existed for 36 years.
Columbus City Councilmember Lourdes Barrosa de Padilla was among those who traveled to the Bienal last year, accompanied by her mother and daughters. Barrosa de Padilla’s parents fled Fidel Castro’s regime in Cuba, and she showed her daughters the small village her parents grew up in. Now, family tells her conditions are difficult.
“The challenge is that there’s not petroleum, there’s not cash. You cannot run a generator either,” Barrosa de Padilla said, adding a cousin had just three hours of power for a week due to the blockade.
Griesmyer was in Havana in mid-March and said the streets were empty of the thousands of tourists he’d grown used to seeing. While there, he watched the city go dark. He also witnessed an afternoon where Elon Musk used StarLink technology to temporarily give everyone in Cuba free Internet.
“This was history,” Griesmyer said. “And one of the people said to me, ‘Yes, we want electricity, but we want the freedom to be able to communicate and to to talk to people and know what’s going on.’ Because that’s scarier than not having electricity, just to not know.”
Starlink is not officially permitted to be used in Cuba, and Cuban officials allege Musk is breaking U.S. trade restrictions by providing free internet. Cuban officials are also worried about possible aggression from the U.S. as Trump threatens military intervention.
“I do believe I’ll be … having the honor of taking Cuba,” Trump said in mid-March. “Whether I free it, take it – think I could do anything I want with it. You want to know the truth. They’re a very weakened nation right now.”
Barrosa de Padilla said Trump’s threats to take over Cuba are complicated. She said the people of Cuba know their current government isn’t working, but feels American intervention in other countries’ governments is not putting America First.
While visiting Cuba, Barrosa de Padilla’s mother died from a heart attack. Barrosa de Padilla said her mother took her final breath in the homeland she loved, surrounded by the poverty she fled.
“It was a beautiful end to my mother’s story because she died in her hometown with her sister, her last living sibling,” Barrosa de Padilla said. “And the place where she first opened her eyes, she closed.”
Reese and Griesmyer said despite the darkness, lack of resources and uncertainty, the people of Cuba believe things will get better. Griesmyer said neighbors share the food he brings to the island so everyone can eat. He said people are dancing through the darkness.
There is much more to the story of Ohio, art, life and Cuba. See the full story on Sunday Briefing at 10 a.m.
Ohio
No. 9 Penn State men’s lacrosse stays perfect in Big Ten play, beats No. 6 Ohio State on the road
Penn State notebook | Men’s lacrosse coach Jeff Tambroni talks UNC loss, upcoming Ohio State matchup
Penn State is trying to build momentum as it has entered Big Ten play. The squad has won thr…
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Ohio
Math plan would help a generation of Ohio students | Opinion
Aaron Churchill is the Ohio research director for the Thomas B. Fordham Institute, an education policy think tank based in Columbus.
In November, the Ohio Senate unanimously passed math reforms that would help a generation of struggling students. House lawmakers should send that excellent package known as Senate Bill 19 to the governor’s desk post haste.
Math difficulties start early for many Ohio students. Last year, 45,000 third graders, or 36% statewide, fell short of proficiency on the state math exam. These youngsters had difficulty solving basic arithmetic and measurement problems. Without such skills, big trouble lies ahead for them.
Meanwhile, even larger percentages of high schoolers fare poorly in this subject. On last year’s algebra I state exam, 53,000 students – 41% of test takers – did not achieve proficiency, while a staggering 72,000 students (57%) fell short in geometry.
These failure rates are unacceptable. Students should not be left to struggle with the routine math needed to manage their personal finances, bake a cake or do a home repair. Nor should they lack the critical thinking, data interpretation and problem solving skills that are demanded by today’s employers and essential to career success.
Ohio must help more students gain fluency in math. Senate Bill 19 does this in the following ways.
First, it supports students with math deficiencies. The bill would require schools to provide math interventions to students scoring at the lowest achievement level (known as “limited”) on state tests. Importantly, schools must engage a child’s parents to create an individual improvement plan that outlines the interventions and how progress will be monitored.
Second, the bill promotes strong math curricula. The Ohio Department of Education and Workforce would be tasked with reviewing math materials and establishing a high-quality list. With dozens of programs and textbooks on the market – some far better than others – this vetting process would aid school districts in finding the best curriculum for their students.
Third, it asks colleges of education to better prepare elementary teachers. Research from the National Council on Teacher Quality shows that teacher training programs often lack serious math content, especially in the elementary grades, leaving teachers ill-prepared for effective instruction. To help address the problem, the bill mandates that prospective educators pass the math section of the state licensure test to teach the subject, something that is not presently required.
Fourth, it gives high-achieving math students a boost. Traditional course placement practices rely on teacher and parent referrals, which tend to overlook economically disadvantaged students who excel in math. Yet, as a recent Fordham Institute study found, access to advanced coursework is critical to high-achieving, low-income students’ college prospects. Through automatic enrollment provisions, Senate Bill 19 would ensure that all high achievers are placed in challenging math courses, including algebra I in eighth grade.
Some may view Senate Bill 19 as burdensome on schools. But the need for significant improvement in math is urgent and the reforms are commonsense. Students struggling in math ought to get help. Schools should use the best-available textbooks and materials. Teachers should know math before they teach it. Schools must push high achievers to reach their full potential.
Math and reading are the academic pillars that support students’ long-term success as well as the state’s economic growth. Thanks to the leadership of Gov. Mike DeWine, Ohio’s Science of Reading initiative is off to a strong start and promises stronger literacy statewide. It’s now time for policymakers to roll up their sleeves and help students get better at math. Their futures – and the state’s – are at stake.
Aaron Churchill is the Ohio research director for the Thomas B. Fordham Institute, an education policy think tank based in Columbus.
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