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Ohio State vs. Nebraska score prediction by expert college football model

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Ohio State vs. Nebraska score prediction by expert college football model


An important Big Ten football matchup kicks off on Saturday as No. 4 Ohio State returns home against Nebraska in college football’s Week 9 action. Let’s take a look at the latest prediction for the game from an expert model that projects scores and picks winners.

Ohio State fell to 2-1 in Big Ten play after a 1-point loss at Oregon and is back in the Horseshoe looking to build some confidence heading into another tough road date against Penn State next weekend with the team’s playoff hopes potentially hanging in the balance.

Nebraska skidded to a 2-2 mark in conference games after getting punched in the mouth by Indiana in a 56-7 decision and embarks on the second straight road game against a ranked conference opponent looking to make what would be one of the biggest upsets of the season.

What do the analytical models suggest for when the Buckeyes and Cornhuskers meet in this Big Ten clash?

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For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Ohio State and Nebraska compare in this Week 9 college football game.

As expected, the models are siding strongly with the Buckeyes over the Cornhuskers this week.

SP+ predicts that Ohio State will defeat Nebraska by a projected score of 33 to 11 and to win the game by an expected margin of 22 points in the process.

The model gives the Buckeyes a strong 92 percent chance of outright victory.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

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How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 211-194-4 against the spread with a 52.1 win percentage after going 31-27-1 (53.4%) last weekend.

Ohio State is a 25.5 point favorite against Nebraska, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 47.5 points for the game (Over -115, Under -105).

And it set the moneyline odds for Ohio State at -7000 and for Nebraska at +2000 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take …

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If you do, you’ll be in the minority of bettors who are taking the Cornhuskers this week, according to the latest spread consensus picks.

62 percent of wagers currently project that Ohio State will win the game and cover the spread in the process.

Nebraska is getting 38 percent of bets to either win the game in an upset, or more likely, to keep the final score under this generous line.

Ohio State has been 41.3 points better than its opponents when playing at home so far this season.

And the Buckeyes have been 19.3 points better than the opposition on average over its last three games overall.

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Nebraska has averaged 15.5 points worse than its opponents when playing on the road in 2024.

And the Cornhuskers are averaging 8 points worse overall over the last three games, with last week’s 49-point loss at Indiana playing a big role in determining that average.

Most other analytical models are also favoring the Buckeyes over the Cornhuskers in this game.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Ohio State is projected to win the game in the overwhelming 96.5 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

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That leaves Nebraska as the expected winner in the remaining 3.5 percent of sims.

Ohio State is projected to be 29.5 points better than Nebraska on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

Ohio State is second among Big Ten teams with a 77.2 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives the Buckeyes a win total prediction of 10.6 games this season.

Nebraska is expected to have an 85.3 percent chance at becoming eligible for a bowl game this year.

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FPI gives the Cornhuskers a win total projection of 6.5 games in ‘24.

When: Sat., Oct. 26
Time: 12 p.m. ET | 11 a.m. CT
TV: Fox network

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams

Follow College Football HQ: Bookmark | Rankings | Picks



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Drake Bell unmasked on ‘The Masked Singer,’ his career, Ohio connections

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Drake Bell unmasked on ‘The Masked Singer,’ his career, Ohio connections


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Drake Bell, the former child star turned singer and actor, was featured on the hit singing competition television series “The Masked Singer” and was unmasked as the Ice King.

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Bell took the stage on “The Masked Singer” after opening up about his traumatic experiences as a child star in the documentary series “Quiet on Set.” 

What connections does Drake Bell have to Ohio? Here’s what to know.

Drake Bell performed as the Ice King on ‘The Masked Singer’

On the Nov. 20 episode, Bell competed as the Ice King on the singing competition show “The Masked Singer” for Miley Cyrus Night, according to People.

Bell had a “freeing experience” while performing on the show after opening up about the abuse he endured as a child star. Bell shared his experience of alleged sexual abuse at the hands of Brian Peck in the docuseries, “Quiet on Set.”

The series also features many former Nickelodeon staff members. They spoke out against former producer Dan Schneider, who was accused of engaging in unprofessional and inappropriate behaviors in the Nickelodeon workplace.

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Drake Bell had legal trouble in Ohio years before going on ‘The Masked Singer’

Before competing on “The Masked Singer,” Drake Bell was charged with disseminating harmful matter to juveniles and attempted child endangerment after being accused of sexual contact and grooming an underage fan in June 2021. He pleaded guilty to attempted child endangerment, the Dispatch reported.

At the time in court, the victim, who was a fan of Bell, claimed the exchanges began when she was 12. She said Bell exchanged explicit photos online and engaged in sexual conduct with her on several occasions, including at a 2017 concert venue in Cleveland and at a hotel.

Furthermore, the victim contacted Toronto police in October 2018, and they forwarded its findings to Cleveland police, prompting an investigation.

Bell claimed he was “unaware” of her age and communicated with her only through text and no physical contact, and also admitted that his interactions with the fan were “reckless and irresponsible.”

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Bell found fame on Nickelodeon, which has Ohio roots

The “Drake and Josh” actor began his career at Nickelodeon, a kids’ channel that was developed in 1977 with the help of a Columbus, Ohio-based company, Qube, the first two-way interactive cable system/remote control by Warner Cable.

Before Nickelodeon was Pinwheel, a Qube channel that aired commercial-free, kid-friendly content 12 hours a day. Pinwheel later became Nickelodeon once Qube went under in 1984.

What shows has Drake Bell performed on?

Bell began his singing and acting career as a child. He acted on Nickelodeon’s “The Amanda Show” and later “Drake & Josh,” according to IDMb.

Bell also starred in many movies, including “Yours, Mine & Ours,” “Superhero Movie,” and two “Drake & Josh” movies. 

Grace Tucker and Jenna Ryu contributed to this report.

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How can Ohio State football beat Indiana? 3 keys for top-five matchup against Hoosiers

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How can Ohio State football beat Indiana? 3 keys for top-five matchup against Hoosiers


Here are three keys for No. 2 Ohio State against No. 5 Indiana on Saturday:

Start fast

The Buckeyes have played in big games, having been in two top-five matchups over the past month and a half. The matchup is a much steeper ramp up in competition for the Hoosiers, who have not faced a ranked opponent and only one in the top half of the Big Ten standings this year. The gap in experience adds incentive for Ohio State to build an early lead and energize the crowd at the Horseshoe. It would put Indiana in an unfamiliar position, having to come from behind in a rabid environment. The Hoosiers had not even trailed in a game until this month.

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Get pressure

Kurtis Rourke, the sixth-year starting quarterback who transferred to Indiana from Ohio, is one of the most efficient passers in the Football Bowl Subdivision, especially when he is well protected. Among quarterbacks with a minimum of 100 dropbacks, only three have a higher NFL passer rating from a clean pocket, according to Pro Football Focus. It’s why the Buckeyes must find ways to disrupt him. When Michigan gave the Hoosiers a scare earlier this month, it did so by sacking Rourke four times, including three during a second half in which the Wolverines held them to 18 total yards.

Account for Mikail Kamara

Between Marshall’s Mike Green and Penn State’s Abdul Carter, the Buckeyes have seen some of the best edge rushers in the sport. Kamara fits into that group as well. One of the James Madison transfers who followed Curt Cignetti to Indiana last offseason, Kamara leads the FBS with 53 total pressures, including nine sacks, per PFF. It’s the biggest test for the Buckeyes’ reshuffled offensive line since facing Carter earlier this month. While Carter had two sacks, twice getting around left tackle Donovan Jackson, the line held up and kept quarterback Will Howard from facing too much pressure. It will need to do so again.

Key matchup

Ohio State secondary vs. Indiana receivers

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The defensive backs were a liability for the Buckeyes in their loss at Oregon last month as the Ducks’ receivers got behind them in coverage, and they have not fully quelled concerns in the following weeks. While the Hoosiers lack a burner like Tez Johnson, they have a deep collection of pass catchers. Five receivers have caught multiple touchdowns, led by Elijah Sarratt’s six scores. Rourke and Sarratt execute a high volume of back-shoulder throws that could challenge cornerbacks Denzel Burke or Davison Igbinosun who will need to keep the James Madison transfer from pulling in his share of 50-50 balls on the perimeter. The receiving corps is as good as the Buckeyes will see outside of Oregon and one of the biggest factors in Indiana’s upset bid.   

Key stat

13: Total points allowed by Indiana in the first quarter over a span of 10 games.

Joey Kaufman covers Ohio State football for The Columbus Dispatch. Follow him on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter, @joeyrkaufman or email him at jkaufman@dispatch.com.

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Ohio Democrat Beats Trump's Pick, Extends House Record

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Ohio Democrat Beats Trump's Pick, Extends House Record


Ohio Democratic US Rep. Marcy Kaptur won another term on Wednesday, defeating a Republican state lawmaker endorsed by President-elect Trump. Her victory in northwest Ohio over state Rep. Derek Merrin allows Kaptur to continue her streak as the longest-serving woman in House history, the AP reports. The final results were certified by the Lucas County Board of Elections in Toledo; the AP called the race Wednesday after previously saying the race was too early to call, though Kaptur declaring victory around 2am the morning after Election Day. Final results were slightly outside the 0.5% margin that would have triggered an automatic recount, with libertarian candidate Tom Pruss scoring about 4% of the vote.

Kaptur, 78, was viewed as among the year’s most vulnerable congressional incumbents, placing Ohio’s 9th Congressional District in the middle of a campaign battle where spending topped $23 million, according to figures compiled by OpenSecrets, a nonpartisan tracker of campaign finance data. Her campaign said in a statement that Kaptur had overcome millions spent by special interests to distort her record. Kaptur thanked her constituents for trusting her to return to Washington in what will be her 22nd term. She pledged to continue to work to increase jobs, strengthen the manufacturing sector and “ensure dignity and stability for everyone who works hard and plays by the rules.”

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Merrin had been endorsed by Trump, and his defeat marks Trump’s first loss in a state that went for the president-elect three times. During the House campaign, Merrin, 38, and his Republican allies targeted Kaptur on immigration and the economy. Democrats targeted Merrin on his support for abortion restrictions, including his work on a bill that would have made certain abortions felonies.

(More Ohio stories.)





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