Ohio
Ohio State vs. Nebraska score prediction by expert college football model
An important Big Ten football matchup kicks off on Saturday as No. 4 Ohio State returns home against Nebraska in college football’s Week 9 action. Let’s take a look at the latest prediction for the game from an expert model that projects scores and picks winners.
Ohio State fell to 2-1 in Big Ten play after a 1-point loss at Oregon and is back in the Horseshoe looking to build some confidence heading into another tough road date against Penn State next weekend with the team’s playoff hopes potentially hanging in the balance.
Nebraska skidded to a 2-2 mark in conference games after getting punched in the mouth by Indiana in a 56-7 decision and embarks on the second straight road game against a ranked conference opponent looking to make what would be one of the biggest upsets of the season.
What do the analytical models suggest for when the Buckeyes and Cornhuskers meet in this Big Ten clash?
For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Ohio State and Nebraska compare in this Week 9 college football game.
As expected, the models are siding strongly with the Buckeyes over the Cornhuskers this week.
SP+ predicts that Ohio State will defeat Nebraska by a projected score of 33 to 11 and to win the game by an expected margin of 22 points in the process.
The model gives the Buckeyes a strong 92 percent chance of outright victory.
SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”
How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 211-194-4 against the spread with a 52.1 win percentage after going 31-27-1 (53.4%) last weekend.
Ohio State is a 25.5 point favorite against Nebraska, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.
FanDuel lists the total at 47.5 points for the game (Over -115, Under -105).
And it set the moneyline odds for Ohio State at -7000 and for Nebraska at +2000 to win outright.
If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take …
If you do, you’ll be in the minority of bettors who are taking the Cornhuskers this week, according to the latest spread consensus picks.
62 percent of wagers currently project that Ohio State will win the game and cover the spread in the process.
Nebraska is getting 38 percent of bets to either win the game in an upset, or more likely, to keep the final score under this generous line.
Ohio State has been 41.3 points better than its opponents when playing at home so far this season.
And the Buckeyes have been 19.3 points better than the opposition on average over its last three games overall.
Nebraska has averaged 15.5 points worse than its opponents when playing on the road in 2024.
And the Cornhuskers are averaging 8 points worse overall over the last three games, with last week’s 49-point loss at Indiana playing a big role in determining that average.
Most other analytical models are also favoring the Buckeyes over the Cornhuskers in this game.
That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.
Ohio State is projected to win the game in the overwhelming 96.5 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.
That leaves Nebraska as the expected winner in the remaining 3.5 percent of sims.
Ohio State is projected to be 29.5 points better than Nebraska on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.
Ohio State is second among Big Ten teams with a 77.2 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.
That model gives the Buckeyes a win total prediction of 10.6 games this season.
Nebraska is expected to have an 85.3 percent chance at becoming eligible for a bowl game this year.
FPI gives the Cornhuskers a win total projection of 6.5 games in ‘24.
When: Sat., Oct. 26
Time: 12 p.m. ET | 11 a.m. CT
TV: Fox network
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Michigan State Insider Podcast: Recapping Spartans’ Win Over Ohio State
No. 18 Michigan State extended its win streak to seven games with its 69-62 victory over Ohio State on Thursday.
The Spartans went into Columbus and were able to pull off the road win, despite blowing a 14-point lead in the second half.
It was a valiant late-game effort for Michigan State, which improved to 12-2 on the season and is 1-0 to start 2025. The Spartans are also 3-0 in conference play.
Our Aidan Champion recaps the contest on this postgame edition of the Michigan State Spartans Insider Podcast.
You can watch the episode below:
Michigan State senior center Szymon Zapala led the way with 15 points. He also recorded two blocks. Spartan senior guard Jaden Akins did his part on offense as well, scoring 14 in the victory.
Redshirt freshman guard Jeremy Fears Jr. was arguably the MVP of the game for the Spartans as he posted 6 points, six rebounds and seven assists.
Sophomore forward Xavier Booker had a bounce-back performance after falling off in his last two outings. He finished with 9 points and two blocks.
Junior forward Jaxon Kohler nearly ended up with another double-double, scoring 8 points while collecting 10 rebounds.
Sophomore forward Coen Carr tallied 11 points. He was efficient from the charity stripe, knocking down 7-of-8 free throws.
The Spartans were tested by veteran guard Bruce Thornton, who was a huge part of the Buckeyes’ comeback late. They also had to deal with Ohio State’s leading scorer in the contest, junior guard Micah Parrish, who finished with 13 points and also excelled down the stretch.
Michigan State struggled from deep in the contest and continued to have trouble turning the ball over. But it was able to overcome those issues and secure the road win, a tough feat in the Big Ten, especially considering the setbacks.
The Spartans will look to build on their perfect start to conference play with a home matchup against Washington on Thursday. It will be the first time the two teams face off since 2010 when Michigan State narrowly defeated the Huskies, 76-71, in the Maui Invitational. That game is set for 8 p.m. EST.
Don’t forget to follow the official Spartan Nation Page on Facebook Spartan Nation WHEN YOU CLICK RIGHT HERE, and be a part of our vibrant community group Go Green Go White as well WHEN YOU CLICK RIGHT HERE.
Ohio
Texas Coach Gets Brutally Honest on Ohio State Matchup
The Ohio State Buckeyes look like a buzzsaw at the moment, and Texas Longhorns head coach Steve Sarkisian is well aware of that fact.
Ohio State will be facing Texas in the Cotton Bowl next Friday with a trip to the National Championship Game on the line, and Sarkisian understands that the Longhorns are big underdogs.
The Buckeyes have opened as 5.5-point favorites over Texas, which actually seems like a rather slim margin considering what they just did to the previously undefeated Oregon Ducks.
But keep in mind: the Cotton Bowl will actually be played in Arlington, so the Longhorns technically have homefield advantage.
Still, it will be difficult to find anyone outside of the Lone Star State actually picking Texas in this game, and Sarkisian knows that.
“I need Longhorn Nation to show out in Arlington. We’re going to need everything we’ve got to try to win this game,” Sarkisian said, via Eleven Warriors. “Clearly, we’re massive underdogs. Nobody’s going to give us a shot. So we’re going to need all that we can to try to win this game.”
The Longhorns are one of the best teams in the country, but they don’t quite match Ohio State in terms of raw talent.
We saw the Buckeyes’ scary talent on display in the Rose Bowl, when they jumped out to a 34-0 lead against Oregon and ultimately came away with a 41-21 victory.
Meanwhile, Texas nearly lost to the Arizona State Sun Devils in the Peach Bowl, surviving in a double-overtime thriller.
Of course, stranger things have happened on the football field, so Ohio State absolutely cannot take the Longhorns lightly.
Ohio
After breakout at Michigan State last year, Devin Royal ready to lead Ohio State in rematch
Ohio State coach Jake Diebler previews Michigan State, Big Ten play
Ohio State coach Jake Diebler previews Michigan State, Big Ten play in this Jan. 2, 2025 press conference.
Devin Royal’s internal clock told him he was out of time.
The green-and-white-clad crowd of 14,797 was screaming as the Ohio State freshman held the ball, and likely the game, in his hands. A Tyson Walker free throw had just pulled Michigan State even against upset-minded Ohio State with 6.4 seconds remaining as Royal tried to get the Buckeyes set up for a final shot. Frantically, the freshman looked for his primary outlet to inbound the ball only to find the Spartans had taken it away.
“I’m counting in my head,” Royal said Thursday, thinking back on the moment. “I’m at five (seconds) myself, so I’m trying to hurry up and get it in.”
No whistle blew, and Royal managed to thread a pass into Bruce Thornton amid three Michigan State defenders. What happened next set off a celebration not seen in 12 years: Thornton pushed the ball up the court, found Dale Bonner along the 3-point line and fed his teammate for a game-winning shot that swished through the net with 0.2 seconds remaining.
The shot will live on in Ohio State lore as the first road winner against the Spartans since William Buford’s jumper lifted them to a share of the 2012 Big Ten title in the final game of the regular season. It also snapped a 17-game road losing streak for the Buckeyes. But while Bonner’s name gets the headline for the play, that shot doesn’t go in – and Ohio State isn’t in position to shock the Spartans – without the first true standout game of Royal’s career.
On that Sunday afternoon, Royal finished with 14 points on 6-of-6 shooting and added two steals and two rebounds in the most playing time of his freshman season to that point: 17:54. It was a glimpse of why the Pickerington Central product had been such a coveted recruit, one who picked the Buckeyes despite a hard push from Michigan State coach Tom Izzo.
Friday night, those two teams meet for the first time since Bonner’s shot when the Spartans come to Value City Arena in the lone matchup between Ohio State and Michigan State this year. This time, Royal features prominently atop the scouting report amid a breakout sophomore season that was hinted at last season.
He leads the Buckeyes in rebounding (7.5 per game) and is second in scoring (14.8) after averaging 2.4 and 4.7 last season, respectively. It’s the kind of growth players sometimes show from freshman to sophomore seasons, but coach Jake Diebler said that’s not exactly how Royal’s summer went.
“At times you can just assume (that growth) is going to happen, but there’s a work, there’s a mentality, there’s a maturity required to make that jump,” Diebler said. “He was a little inconsistent with that at times in the summer. We talked about it. He owned that, and then he took off because I think he was honest with himself.”
When the Buckeyes reported for fall camp, Diebler said Royal had flipped the page and quickly began to assert himself as a high-level player.
“You’re seeing a great deal of benefit from the hard work and mentality he had really starting in August,” the coach said. “He’s a great story about what I want our program to be about. I want guys to come in and grow and get better and he’s certainly done that.”
When Ohio State returned from holiday break, Royal was hardly able to practice due to an illness that had him questionable for the Dec. 29 home game against Indiana State. He gutted out 19:44, finishing with 13 points and four rebounds in the 103-83 win against the Sycamores.
In two Big Ten games this season, Royal leads Ohio State in scoring average (20.0) and rebounding average (7.5). For the Buckeyes to knock off No. 18 Michigan State, Royal will have to play a big part.
Just like he did last year.
“It taught me a lot,” Royal said of that experience. “It’s a very physical game. Tom Izzo definitely put in them (the mentality) to be physical a lot. I know coming into this game I have to put it into some of the younger guys who might not know about it.”
ajardy@dispatch.com
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