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Ohio State vs. Nebraska score prediction by expert college football model

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Ohio State vs. Nebraska score prediction by expert college football model


An important Big Ten football matchup kicks off on Saturday as No. 4 Ohio State returns home against Nebraska in college football’s Week 9 action. Let’s take a look at the latest prediction for the game from an expert model that projects scores and picks winners.

Ohio State fell to 2-1 in Big Ten play after a 1-point loss at Oregon and is back in the Horseshoe looking to build some confidence heading into another tough road date against Penn State next weekend with the team’s playoff hopes potentially hanging in the balance.

Nebraska skidded to a 2-2 mark in conference games after getting punched in the mouth by Indiana in a 56-7 decision and embarks on the second straight road game against a ranked conference opponent looking to make what would be one of the biggest upsets of the season.

What do the analytical models suggest for when the Buckeyes and Cornhuskers meet in this Big Ten clash?

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For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Ohio State and Nebraska compare in this Week 9 college football game.

As expected, the models are siding strongly with the Buckeyes over the Cornhuskers this week.

SP+ predicts that Ohio State will defeat Nebraska by a projected score of 33 to 11 and to win the game by an expected margin of 22 points in the process.

The model gives the Buckeyes a strong 92 percent chance of outright victory.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

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How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 211-194-4 against the spread with a 52.1 win percentage after going 31-27-1 (53.4%) last weekend.

Ohio State is a 25.5 point favorite against Nebraska, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 47.5 points for the game (Over -115, Under -105).

And it set the moneyline odds for Ohio State at -7000 and for Nebraska at +2000 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take …

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If you do, you’ll be in the minority of bettors who are taking the Cornhuskers this week, according to the latest spread consensus picks.

62 percent of wagers currently project that Ohio State will win the game and cover the spread in the process.

Nebraska is getting 38 percent of bets to either win the game in an upset, or more likely, to keep the final score under this generous line.

Ohio State has been 41.3 points better than its opponents when playing at home so far this season.

And the Buckeyes have been 19.3 points better than the opposition on average over its last three games overall.

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Nebraska has averaged 15.5 points worse than its opponents when playing on the road in 2024.

And the Cornhuskers are averaging 8 points worse overall over the last three games, with last week’s 49-point loss at Indiana playing a big role in determining that average.

Most other analytical models are also favoring the Buckeyes over the Cornhuskers in this game.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Ohio State is projected to win the game in the overwhelming 96.5 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

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That leaves Nebraska as the expected winner in the remaining 3.5 percent of sims.

Ohio State is projected to be 29.5 points better than Nebraska on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

Ohio State is second among Big Ten teams with a 77.2 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives the Buckeyes a win total prediction of 10.6 games this season.

Nebraska is expected to have an 85.3 percent chance at becoming eligible for a bowl game this year.

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FPI gives the Cornhuskers a win total projection of 6.5 games in ‘24.

When: Sat., Oct. 26
Time: 12 p.m. ET | 11 a.m. CT
TV: Fox network

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams

Follow College Football HQ: Bookmark | Rankings | Picks



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No. 21 Ohio State women beat Norfolk State 79-45

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No. 21 Ohio State women beat Norfolk State 79-45


COLUMBUS, Ohio (AP) — Kylee Kitts scored 13 points, Jaloni Cambridge added 11 and No. 21 Ohio State rolled past Norfolk State 79-45 on Thursday night for its eighth straight win.

Dasha Biriuk added 10 points for Ohio State, which is 10-1 overall and 7-0 at home.

Kitts was 6 of 12 from the field, and grabbed 10 rebounds to go with two steals and two blocks. Cambridge was 4-of-8 shooting and had eight rebounds and two steals.

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Cambridge scored seven points in the first quarter as the Buckeyes jumped out to a 20-10 lead and built a 43-21 halftime advantage. Kitts and Cambridge each scored nine first-half points.

Ohio State outrebounded Norfolk State 55-32 and scored 21 points off 17 turnovers.

Jasha Clinton scored 18 points to lead Norfolk State (5-9). Ciara Bailey had 10 points and 11 rebounds.

Up next

Norfolk State plays at Elon on Sunday.

Ohio State hosts Western Michigan on Mondahy.

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___ Get poll alerts and updates on the AP Top 25 throughout the season. Sign up here. AP women’s college basketball: https://apnews.com/hub/ap-top-25-womens-college-basketball-poll and https://apnews.com/hub/womens-college-basketball



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Menards to pay 10 states, including Ohio, $4.25 million in rebate settlement

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Menards to pay 10 states, including Ohio, .25 million in rebate settlement


COLUMBUS, Ohio (WCMH) — Ohio is part of a multistate lawsuit settlement against home improvement store Menards.

According to the state Attorney General’s Office, Ohio and nine other states reached the settlement with Menards, a Wisconsin-based home-improvement retail store, over allegations of deceptive rebate advertising.

The 10-state led investigation revealed that Menards would give shoppers the impression that they were getting an immediate discount while shopping through its advertising, when in fact, savings actually came in the form of a rebate or in-store credit.

The investigation raised concerns with Menards’ marketing strategy and sales practices, alleging the following of the company:

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  • Advertised 11% off or 11% off everything that suggested an instant price cut, even though customers received only a rebate on future purchases.
  • Listed prices already at an 11% discount, reinforcing the idea that shoppers were getting an in-store discount.
  • Failed to clearly explain the important limits of the rebate program, burying key details in the fine print.
  • Tell customers that Rebates International was a separate company handling rebates, even though it is operated by Menards itself.

The settlement, announced Thursday, included an agreement by Menards that it would, in part, discontinue ads suggesting immediate discounts, clearly explaining the rules, limits, and conditions of its rebate program, and offer customers an easier path towards claiming rebates, both in person and online, among other changes.

In addition, Menards will pay participating states $4.25 million in fees, of which $365,173.05 will go toward the Ohio Attorney General’s Consumer Protection Enforcement Fund.



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Ohio State dominate latest power ranking as nine Buckeyes rank inside Top 50 players

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Ohio State dominate latest power ranking as nine Buckeyes rank inside Top 50 players


The honors continue to roll in for this Ohio State Buckeyes football team.

From young players ready for another College Football Playoff run next season to players hungry for one more run starting December 31 before the NFL Draft, this Ohio State Buckeyes team is loaded with talent headed into their seventh playoffs appearance since the CFP era began in 2014.

Five defensive players and four offensive players headlined a class of extremely talented Buckeyes. Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza took the No. 1 spot to go along with his Heisman and Maxwell honors.

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An offensive Ohio State Buckeye took the No. 2 spot right behind Mendoza.

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Ohio State Buckeyes linebacker Arvell Reese (8) tackles Michigan Wolverines running back Bryson Kuzdzal (24) during the NCAA football game at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor, Mich. on Nov. 29, 2025. Ohio State won 27-9. | Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Wide receiver Jeremiah Smith takes the No. 2 spot

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Jeremiah Smith was ranked behind Mendoza along with his gun-slinging sophomore quarterback. Julian Sayin was the second-highest ranked quarterback on the list at No. 5.

“Smith caught 80 balls for 1,086 yards and 11 touchdowns as a sophomore, but that doesn’t really tell the story…Smith commands double-teams constantly, draws the attention of everyone’s best corner, and has every defensive coordinator he faces scheming to slow him down. And none of it has mattered.”

ESPN’s David Hale

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Smith is expected to have one more dominant season with the Buckeyes next season where fans hope to see him paired next to five-star recruit Chris Henry Jr. Senior wide receiver Carnell Tate has been an impressive receiving mate for Smith the past two seasons. Tate caught 48 passes, nine touchdowns, and had 838 yards. He ranked No. 26 in the rankings.

Offensive tackle Austin Siereveld ranked No. 44 as well.

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The defense takes over

All five of Ohio State’s defensive players on the list ranked inside the top-22. Junior linebacker Sonny Styles sat at No. 21 to kick things off for the defense. The Buckeyes have had the best defense in college football for the entire season and these are the names that have made it happen. Projected first round NFL Draft Arvell Reese took the No. 16 spot.

“A new set of stars emerged to lead the nation’s No. 1 defense this fall, and Reese was undeniably front and center. He has thrived under new coordinator Matt Patricia, recording 6.5 sacks and 10 tackles for loss from the edge position and finished second on the squad with 62 total tackles…Reese was named Big Ten’s Linebacker of the Year and recorded a sack in six of Ohio State’s first eight games of the season.”

ESPN’s Adam Rittenberg

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Defensive linemen Kayden McDonald and Caden Curry ranked at No. 13 and No. 11 respectively. Safety Caleb Downs was the highest ranked defensive Buckeye at No. 7. Downs is a simply a lockdown player who can play corner or safety while still being able to tackle at a high level. If he chooses to declare for the NFL Draft after the season is over, he’ll be slated to go within the top 10 in most mock drafts.

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Opposing quarterbacks only targeted downs 20 times for the entire season. Only nine passes were caught on his watch as the primary defender.

“The longest completion he gave up was 17 yards. A 14-yard completion in the second quarter of the Big Ten title game was the first one he’d given up in nearly two months. There is not a more lockdown corner in the country than Downs.”

ESPN’s David Hale

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The Ohio State Buckeyes are waiting for the winner of the No. 10 Miami Hurricanes against the No. 7 Texas A&M Aggies in the first round of the College Football Playoffs this Saturday at 12:00pm Eastern on ABC/ESPN.



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