Ohio
Ohio State vs. Nebraska score prediction by expert college football model
An important Big Ten football matchup kicks off on Saturday as No. 4 Ohio State returns home against Nebraska in college football’s Week 9 action. Let’s take a look at the latest prediction for the game from an expert model that projects scores and picks winners.
Ohio State fell to 2-1 in Big Ten play after a 1-point loss at Oregon and is back in the Horseshoe looking to build some confidence heading into another tough road date against Penn State next weekend with the team’s playoff hopes potentially hanging in the balance.
Nebraska skidded to a 2-2 mark in conference games after getting punched in the mouth by Indiana in a 56-7 decision and embarks on the second straight road game against a ranked conference opponent looking to make what would be one of the biggest upsets of the season.
What do the analytical models suggest for when the Buckeyes and Cornhuskers meet in this Big Ten clash?
For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Ohio State and Nebraska compare in this Week 9 college football game.
As expected, the models are siding strongly with the Buckeyes over the Cornhuskers this week.
SP+ predicts that Ohio State will defeat Nebraska by a projected score of 33 to 11 and to win the game by an expected margin of 22 points in the process.
The model gives the Buckeyes a strong 92 percent chance of outright victory.
SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”
How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 211-194-4 against the spread with a 52.1 win percentage after going 31-27-1 (53.4%) last weekend.
Ohio State is a 25.5 point favorite against Nebraska, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.
FanDuel lists the total at 47.5 points for the game (Over -115, Under -105).
And it set the moneyline odds for Ohio State at -7000 and for Nebraska at +2000 to win outright.
If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take …
If you do, you’ll be in the minority of bettors who are taking the Cornhuskers this week, according to the latest spread consensus picks.
62 percent of wagers currently project that Ohio State will win the game and cover the spread in the process.
Nebraska is getting 38 percent of bets to either win the game in an upset, or more likely, to keep the final score under this generous line.
Ohio State has been 41.3 points better than its opponents when playing at home so far this season.
And the Buckeyes have been 19.3 points better than the opposition on average over its last three games overall.
Nebraska has averaged 15.5 points worse than its opponents when playing on the road in 2024.
And the Cornhuskers are averaging 8 points worse overall over the last three games, with last week’s 49-point loss at Indiana playing a big role in determining that average.
Most other analytical models are also favoring the Buckeyes over the Cornhuskers in this game.
That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.
Ohio State is projected to win the game in the overwhelming 96.5 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.
That leaves Nebraska as the expected winner in the remaining 3.5 percent of sims.
Ohio State is projected to be 29.5 points better than Nebraska on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.
Ohio State is second among Big Ten teams with a 77.2 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.
That model gives the Buckeyes a win total prediction of 10.6 games this season.
Nebraska is expected to have an 85.3 percent chance at becoming eligible for a bowl game this year.
FPI gives the Cornhuskers a win total projection of 6.5 games in ‘24.
When: Sat., Oct. 26
Time: 12 p.m. ET | 11 a.m. CT
TV: Fox network
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Ohio
Northeast Ohio school closures for Wednesday, Jan. 28, 2026; Cleveland School District plans to resume classes
CLEVELAND, Ohio — Cleveland Metropolitan School District is going to give it a try Wednesday.
The city’s school district posted a message on its website Tuesday night that it intends to resume classes Wednesday. However, the message says the district intends to monitor weather conditions overnight.
Temperatures are expected to go as low as minus-3 degrees with wind chills at minus-15, according to the National Weather Service. The predicted temperature at 7 a.m. is 1 degree with wind chills at minus-11. A cold weather advisory is in effect until 11 a.m. Wednesday.
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That’s led dozens of districts to already cancel classes for Wednesday, including Akron Public Schools, Avon Lake City Schools, Elyria City Schools, Lorain City Schools, Medina City Schools and Strongsville City Schools.
Below is a list of closures and delays for Wednesday, Jan. 28. For a more complete list that includes day cares, preschools, Head Start programs and church programs, go to the list from cleveland.com/The Plain Dealer news partner WKYC Channel 3.
Academy of St. Bartholomew
Akron Public Schools
Albert Einstein Academy (all campuses)
Amherst Exempted Village Schools
Archbishop Hoban High School
Around the Sun Montessori School
Ashtabula Area City Schools
Ashtabula County Tech Campus
Avon Lake City Schools
Avon Local Schools
Barberton City Schools
Berea City Schools
Bethel Baptist Christian Academy
Black River Career Prep High School
Brooklyn City Schools
Brunswick City Schools
Buckeye Joint Vocational School District
Buckeye Local Schools (Ashtabula County)
Buckeye Local Schools (Medina County)
Building Bridges
C.A.S.T.L.E High School (Parma)
Cascade Career Prep
Central Christian School
Chapel Hill Christian School, North and South
Chippewa Local Schools
Christian Community School
Cleveland Arts & Social Sciences Academy
Clearview Local Schools
Cleveland Central Catholic High School
Cleveland Shambhala Center
Cleveland Sports Academy
Cloverleaf Local Schools
Community Action Head Start (Akron, Barberton)
Conneaut Area City Schools
Constellation School Westpark Community Elementary
Constellation Schools Stockyard Community Middle
Constellation Schools Eastside Arts Academy
Constellation Schools Elyria Community Elementary
Constellation Schools Elyria Community Middle
Constellation Schools Lorain Community Elementary
Constellation Schools Lorain Community Middle
Constellation Schools Madison Community Elementary
Constellation Schools Old Brooklyn Community Middle
Constellation Schools Old Brooklyn Community Elementary
Constellation Schools Parma Community Elementary
Constellation Schools Parma Community Middle
Constellation Schools Parma Community High School
Constellation Schools Parma Community Intermediate
Constellation Schools Puritas Community Elementary
Constellation Schools Puritas Community Middle
Constellation Schools Stockyard Community Elementary
Constellation Schools Westpark Community Middle
Constellation Schools Westside Community School of Arts
Constellation Schools Pearl Road Elementary
Copley Fairlawn City Schools
Cornerstone Community School
Corpus Christi Academy
Coventry Local Schools
Crestwood Local Schools
Cuyahoga Falls City Schools
Dale Roy School
Education Alternatives (Bedford, Brook Park, Elyria, Ravenna, Springfield, Willoughby)
EHOVE Career Center (two-hour delay)
Elyria Catholic High School
Elyria City Schools
Fairlawn Lutheran School
Fairview Park City Schools
Field Local Schools
Geneva Area City Schools
Ginn-Thompson School for Girls
Global Ambassadors Language Academy
Global Village Academy
Gospel Haven Academy (two-hour delay)
Grand Valley Local Schools
GSCELC SCOPE Academy
Hametown Christian Academy
Happy Hearts
Hartville Christian School
Highland Local Schools
Hiram College
Holy Cross Lutheran School
Holy Family (Stow)
Holy Name High School
Horizon Science Academy Denison Middle, Cleveland Middle, High School
I.D.M.R. Akron
Imagine Bella Academy
Immaculate Heart (Cuyahoga Falls)
Incarnate Word Academy Elementary
Innovation Academy West
Insightful Minds
Jefferson Area Local Schools
Kent City Schools
KidsLink School
Kingsway Christian School
Lake Center Christian Schools
Lake Ridge Academy
Lawrence School (Lower, Upper)
Lincoln Park Academy
Lorain City Schools
Lorain Preparatory School
Magnificat High School
Maplewood Career Center
Mayfair Christian School
Medina Christian Academy
Medina City Schools
Medina County Career Center
Midview Local Schools
Mogadore Local Schools
Monroe Preparatory Academy
Noble Academy (Cleveland)
Nordonia Hills City Schools
North Olmsted City Schools
North Ridgeville City Schools
North Royalton City Schools
Northside Christian Academy
Olmsted Falls City Schools
Open Door Christian Schools
Orchard Park Academy (Akron)
Our Lady of Angels Elementary
Our Lady of Elms (all closed)
Padua Franciscan High School
Parma City Schools
Parma Heights Christian Academy
Pathways to Success
Portage Learning Center (Atwater, Kent, Ravenna, Streetsboro)
Positive Education Program
Pymatuning Valley Local Schools
R G Drage Career Center
Ramah Junior Academy
Ravenna School District
Redeemer Christian Elementary
Regina Coeli-St. Joseph
Revere Local Schools
Rising Sun Centers
Royal Redeemer Lutheran
S.U.P.E.R. Learning Center
Seton Catholic School
Sheffield-Sheffield Lake City Schools
Southeast Local Schools (Portage County)
Springfield Local Schools (Summit County)
SS Philip and James School (Canal Fulton)
St. Adalbert (Cleveland)
St. Albert the Great Elementary
St. Angela Merici.
St. Anthony of Padua (Akron, Lorain, Parma)
St. Augustine (Barberton)
St. Charles Borromeo School
St. Columbkille Elementary
St. John Lutheran (Cleveland)
St. John School (Ashtabula)
St. Joseph-Randolph
St. Jude Elementary (Elyria)
St. Leo The Great (Cleveland)
St. Mary Elementary (Elyria)
St. Mary Immaculate (Avon)
St. Mary (Akron)
St. Mary (Berea)
St. Michael Archangel
St. Patrick Elementary (Kent)
St. Paul Lutheran (Westlake)
St. Peter Elementary (Lorain)
St. Peter (North Ridgeville)
St. Sebastian Elementary
St. Stanislaus Elementary
St. Thomas More Elementary
St. Vincent-St. Mary High School (two-hour delay)
STEAM Academy (Warrensville)
STEPS Academy
Stepstone Academy
Stow-Munroe Falls City Schools
Streetsboro City Schools
Strongsville City Schools
Sts. Joseph and John (Strongsville)
Summit Academy Elementary (Akron, Lorain)
Summit Academy (Akron Middle, Secondary)
Summit Academy-Akron Secondary
Summit Christian School
Tallmadge City Schools
The Golden Key School
The Lippman School
Urban Vision (Akron)
Wadsworth City Schools
Warrensville Heights City Schools
Washington Park Community School
Windfall School
Wings of Change
Ohio State Buckeyes defensive coordinator Matt Patricia isn’t returning to Columbus to mess around. He wants to win and wants to do so immediately to erase the bad taste from the Buckeyes’ Cotton Bowl loss to the Miami Hurricanes last month.
To do so, Patricia needed a mindset shift. It’s one made famous by ex-Ohio State legend Woody Hayes, whose words still resonate with Buckeye faithful to this day.
“You Win With People.”
“When you go into a new building, man, you better leave all that baggage behind,” Patricia said, via The Silver Bulletin.” “You [had] better leave that behind because they don’t deserve it or they’re not there in that same space.”
Patricia wants his players to remember, whether it’s ex-safety Caleb Downs or a practice squad plsyer thst he wants to remain in their life for as long as he can instead of just being transactional.
“I really have a lot of joy in this and love being around the guys and the relationships,” Patricia said. “I’ve got guys that I coached in the 90s, and I’m still really close with, and guys that don’t call, they just be like, ‘Hey, I need your advice on this,’ or after football, career advice and things like that. So I love being that mentor.”
Patricia does tend to use the growth vs. fixed mindset, channeling the growth mindset as his main source of positive coaching.
“I just try to take it one step at a time,” Patricia said. “I always want to have that growth mindset. I always want to be a curious learner.”
Matt Patricia Finds Inner-Motivation to Lead Buckeyes
Nonetheless, though, one thing is non-negotiable.
“I’m gonna give you everything I got,” Patricia said. “I’m really gonna sacrifice everything I can to make sure I come through for you.”
Regardless of the outcome, that’s Patricia’s constant message.
Everything can be reset, which Patricia realized after a failed stint with the Detroit Lions.
“I wasn’t my best version,” Patricia said. “I think learning that is really important. That’s how you get better as a coach, as a person.”
Now, he says feels much better about himself overall. Especially when it comes to mentoring players where he knows they will be successful with the next level like Downs.
“I think just in general with Caleb [Downs], just the amount of experience he has playing football is probably the most important thing,” Patricia said. “And his professionalism, and how he prepares, is probably the best example that I can point to for all the players.”
With Patricia at peace, the Buckeyes defense can move forward as well.
It remains to be seen whether everything pays off. Come August, we will find out.
Ohio State is set to bring in Arthur Smith as its next offensive coordinator, replacing Brian Hartline, who was recently named the head coach at South Florida.
Here are three thoughts on Smith’s imminent hire:
Ohio State head coach Ryan Day values NFL experience
The hire follows a familiar pattern, as Smith is the latest coordinator to bring an NFL background to Ohio State.
Six of the eight offensive and defensive play-callers hired by Day over his tenure have spent previous years in the NFL.
Smith’s career arc most closely mirrors Matt Patricia, the Buckeyes’ current defensive coordinator. Both were rising stars during the 2010s and landed head-coaching jobs at the peak of their ascents before washing out and returning to roles as coordinators.
After Smith was fired by the Atlanta Falcons at the end of 2023, he spent two seasons as the Pittsburgh Steelers’ offensive coordinator, helping them to twice reach the playoffs.
The approach worked well with Patricia, who elevated the Ohio State defense with NFL-style concepts that ranged from multiple fronts to coverage disguises as he replaced Jim Knowles last offseason. The Buckeyes finished 2025 with the best defense in the Football Bowl Subdivision, allowing the fewest points per game since Alabama 2011.
It figured to be worth repeating on the other side of the ball, especially after Day had relied on a first-time play-caller last year in Hartline, who had been the Buckeyes’ wide receivers coach before the promotion.
The experience of the 43-year-old Smith also allows Day to continue in a CEO-style role after remaining the primary play-caller for the offense in his first five seasons at the helm of the program. Day began delegating play-calling in 2024, though he briefly returned to the role for the College Football Playoff in December.
Arthur Smith adds a complementary strength
Smith’s best year as an offensive coordinator was with the Tennessee Titans in 2020.
The Titans were one of the highest-scoring offenses in league with an average of 30.7 points per game that ranked fourth out of 32 teams. They leaned on star running back Derrick Henry, who became only the eighth running back to rush for 2,000 yards in a season.
The Titans also finished drives during Smith’s two years as coordinator, ranking first in 2019 and second in 2020 for their red-zone touchdown percentage. They reached the end zone on three out of every four trips inside opponents’ 20-yard line.
If the success translates to Ohio State, it would pair well with the vertical passing that has long been the defining strength of Day’s offenses.
There were only five FBS quarterbacks in 2025 who completed more deep balls, as defined by Pro Football Focus as passes traveling at least 20 yards, than redshirt freshman Julian Sayin.
But the Buckeyes experienced a drop-off with both their running game, which went from 5 yards per carry in 2024 to 4.6 yards in 2025, and red-zone efficiency, where their touchdown percentage of 75.81% fell to 66.67%.
Smith should help in both areas, potential improvement that would enhance an offense that remains stacked with talent due to the return of Sayin and star wide receiver Jeremiah Smith.
The absence of Chip Kelly, the former offensive coordinator who elevated the Buckeyes’ running game during their national championship season, was noticeable last fall.
The hope for the Buckeyes is that Smith can help them to rediscover the balance.
Scheme is the priority at Ohio State
Two assistants will replace Hartline.
Day made the first hire earlier in January with Cortez Hankton as receivers coach before finding Smith.
The addition of Smith will leave Ohio State with a staff of 11 primary on-field assistant coaches, one more than in recent seasons.
The expansion is the result of the NCAA’s removal of limit on staff sizes, a rule change introduced in 2024 allowing schools to hire an unlimited number of assistants to coach during practices and games.
The only restriction that remains in effect involves recruiting. FBS teams can send only 10 assistants off campus to recruit in addition to their head coach.
The current setup suggests Smith would not be out recruiting. It would be a rare arrangement for a coordinator, but not unprecedented, as Clemson coach Dabo Swinney has other assistants on the road in place of offensive coordinator Chad Morris and defensive coordinator Tom Allen.
As Ohio State moves in a similar direction, it would leave Smith largely focused on game planning and play-calling for their offense without having to travel for recruiting.
Smith would also be Day’s first offensive coordinator without being assigned to a position group.
Joey Kaufman covers Ohio State football for The Columbus Dispatch. Email him at jkaufman@dispatch.com and follow along on Bluesky, Instagram and X for more.
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