Minnesota
Minnesota Twins PECOTA Projections: The Pitchers
The end of the Super Bowl means two things: pitchers and catchers reporting to spring training, and projection season. Teams are finished touching up their roster (sans a notable quartet of free agents still available), allowing our not-quite-yet robot overlords to offer their opinions on each squad.
I previously reviewed PECOTA’s predictions for the 2023 team here, and the articles about the pitching and hitting projections can be found here and here, respectively, along with a short description of what any of this is. Let’s wait no more, here are Minnesota’s top 12 projected pitchers.
(Other notable projected pitchers include Kody Funderburk (0.3 WARP), Jay Jackson (0.2), and Matt Canterino (0.2).)
That Pablo López comes in as the best pitcher on the team is no surprise; PECOTA pegged him as a top-tier arm last year, and he only reinforced the system’s confidence with his best all-around year to date. PECOTA only sees 10 other pitchers accruing more WARP in 2024.
Then, Joe Ryan. Man, PECOTA loves Joe Ryan. He had an eyebrow-raisingly high projection heading into 2022, and ranked solidly last year. It’s hard not to love his ability to combine an elite strikeout rate with an abnormally low walk rate; projections eat that skillset up. I think his relatively new home run problem gives the computer hope that it’s a fluke, not a sudden slide into late-career Bert Blyleven “all systems go” territory.
Bailey Ober rounds out the trio that, according to PECOTA, gives the Twins three of the 40 best pitchers in MLB. Yet again, projections love guys who can whiff hitters while keeping the walks low—and Ober’s increased workload in 2023 increased confidence in him staying healthy moving forward.
Jhoan Durán earns the best projection among all MLB relievers. His odd command downslide in 2023 did not portend disaster: he still struck out everyone and their mother and upped his groundball rate to 65.9%. Much like low walk rates, projection systems adore pitchers able to induce grounders at an elevated clip. When matched with elite strikeout production, few other relief arms can touch Durán.
The last thing I want to touch on is the two final arms. Dan Szymborski talked about the Brock Stewart conundrum in his piece here, in which he explains the deviation surrounding Stewart has to do with sample size: how can you project a 32-year-old who missed three MLB seasons, entered the year with a negative career WAR, and then mowed down guys like prime Joe Nathan? Simple: assume regression. Now, Szymborski points out that Stewart’s underlying numbers—mainly a 20% swinging-strike rate on all pitches and a 60.6% contact rate on swings—are hard to fake, giving legitimate credence to his success. Still, it’s going to take a few years for any projection system to believe in him.
(You can essentially say the same thing about Justin Topa, who didn’t shed rookie eligibility until his age-32 (!!!) season. How do you project something that almost never happens?)
Everything passes the smell test here. Minnesota’s big three look solid, but their back-end depth is a little scary, and the sleeping dragon nestled in the back of their bullpen should drive what appears to be a deep unit.
If you would like to see any of this PECOTA stuff yourself, consider heading over to Baseball Prospectus’s website to subscribe and read some of the best baseball writing in the business. Their alumni include Brandon Warne and Aaron Gleeman, and our editor, Matthew Trueblood, writes pieces for them as well. No one told me to write this; I truly believe they are one the best resources for analytical and creative baseball thinking currently in operation.
What stands out most to you in these projections? Where would you place more faith, or less? Spark a discussion in the comments, below.
Minnesota
The midterms loom as another chance for Minnesota to set an example for the nation
Minnesota
Small Minnesota farms feeling the impact of high beef prices
Beef prices have climbed to record highs this year, and consumers are noticing.
That’s due in part to the U.S. cattle herd being the smallest it’s been in 75 years due to drought and high feed costs. John Lauritsen shows us how that’s impacting smaller beef producers in Minnesota.
“In 2008 we started with three cows. And we didn’t sell our first beef to consumers until 2011,” said Josh Krenz of Windland Flats Farm near Princeton.
But for the past 15 years, Krenz said his Highland Cattle have been in high demand. The long-haired cows are a niche product, and over the past 5 years consumers have been contacting Windland Flats Farm for their steaks and ground beef.
“It’s super lean but really tender and has a lot of marbling to it still,” said Krenz.
The rising popularity of Highland meat has allowed Krenz to expand. The natives of Scotland are hearty animals and good grazers who need shade but not barns, so they’re cost-effective to raise. But lately, Krenz has wondered what the future holds for his herd, as consumers adjust.
“They are not buying in bulk packages that we used to sell. They are buying smaller just trying to go from paycheck to paycheck is what it feels like.”
Instead of buying 35-pound packages for about $450 like they have in the past, lately their clients have been looking to buy just a fraction of that.
“We just see people wanting to go down to 10 pounds or 15 pounds or maybe they aren’t coming back at all,” said Krenz.
And it’s forced Windland Flats and other farms like them to make a number of adjustments when it comes to promoting their product and limiting their overhead costs.”
“That’s what we are doing the most is watching our costs. Some of that is using technology to lower labor costs. Optimizing the land because we aren’t going to be able to afford to buy more land in 5 years if we aren’t going to have that income flow coming in,” said Krenz.
There’s still hope that things will turn around. In the meantime, it’s business as usual for the Highlands.
“Just as an economy as a whole, everybody is watching their wallet really hard right now,” said Krenz.
In Minnesota, Wisconsin and Iowa, there are about 250 members of the American Highland Cattle Association.
Minnesota
Wildcat Sanctuary: Rio the Ocelot Turns 27
A beloved ocelot named Rio is celebrating an incredible milestone at the Wildcat Sanctuary in Sandstone, Minnesota — her 27th birthday! This stunning medium-sized wildcat is known for her gorgeous spotted coat and distinctive ring-patterned tail. Tammy Thies, founder and executive director of the Wildcat Sanctuary, joined Minnesota Live to share more about Rio’s remarkable life. Learn more here.
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