MINOCQUA, Wis. — A scientist warns that the effects of climate change could ultimately drive Minnesota’s state bird out of the state entirely.

Loons captivate our imaginations and steal our hearts, but they’re literally shrinking. Loon nesting season on Blue Lake in Minocqua, Wisconsin has become a holiday of sorts.

“It is a big deal around here,” said lake resident Brian Colianni “When the chicks hatch, it’s loon watch.”

For 32 years, Professor Walter Piper, a biology professor at Chapman University in Orange, California, has made the trek from the West Coast for this front-row seat. 

Piper Tags and tracks loons with the help of lake residents and young research assistants from around the country.  All hoping to uncover what’s happening with the majestic icons of the north. You can follow his work online.

After cruising in Colianni’s pontoon for a while we spot a pair of chicks with their dad, but having a sibling these days is less common.

“A two-chick brood is almost getting to be a special thing now and that’s a reflection of a thing that’s going on here in Wisconsin,” said Piper.

Loon chicks are shrinking in northern Wisconsin — both in numbers and size — something that’s worsened since the early 2000s.

At one month, a loon chick used to weigh about 3.5 pounds. Now, they’re closer to 3 pounds. That worries lake residents like Brian and Teresa Colianni.

“It’s really disturbing because it’s such a part of our habitat and such a part of what we like up here,” said Brian Colianni.

To understand why chicks are shrinking, you first have to understand how they forage. If you’ve ever seen a loon fishing, you’ll notice they peer below the surface before diving down to grab their next meal. 

Loons need to see to hunt, and to hunt they need clear water. That’s where climate change becomes a problem. Our more frequent and intense downpours wash things like fertilizers and sediment into the water making it murky and hard to hunt.

“Parents simply can’t keep themselves alive and feed the chicks enough to keep those chicks growing,” said Piper.

The rain and heat also allow black flies to thrive. The pests can swarm and annoy loons and that can drive them off their nests.

“That second chick that would have made it 25 or 30 years ago when we didn’t have the water clarity problems that we have now. That second chick can’t make it anymore,” said Piper.

Piper says they used satellite images from over the decades to confirm water quality was dropping.

“It’s very serious,” said Piper.

At some point, Piper thought if this is happening in Wisconsin, it could be happening in Minnesota too. As a result, in 2021, he expanded his research into Minnesota to include places like the white fish chain of lakes near Crosslake, Minnesota. 

But Piper’s early findings in the land of ten thousand lakes are even more troubling than in Wisconsin.

Just 82% of Minnesota’s state birds return after wintering in the south.  That’s lower than Wisconsin’s 88%, and it surprised Piper.

Piper says while the return rate is not equivalent to the survival rate, it is certainly a strong indicator. 

“It’s another thing that’s keeping me awake at night,” said Piper.

His decades of data show loons in northern Wisconsin are declining 6% a year. 

“It means within 20 years we’ll have virtually no loons here in northern Wisconsin,” said Piper.

Others, like the National Audubon Society, say because of climate change, loons simply won’t live here by the end of the century. Despite all of that, we have loon-watching to enjoy in the here and now. 

As loon parents try to shelter their little ones from tough realities, others rally behind the symbolic and captivating creature. 

“My hope is just to hold on to loons. To keep loons around in Wisconsin and Minnesota,” said Piper. 

If you want to help, Piper says you can stop using lawn fertilizers. Planting or keeping native shorelines provides healthy habitat and clearer lakes. Building nest rafts can help, too. You can also get involved: Community scientists help provide important information to save the birds we love.