After a lot jockeying among the many high Japanese Convention groups, the Milwaukee Bucks discovered their approach into the 3-6 matchup, an identical to final season, however this yr they’re dealing with their neighbors to the south, the Chicago Bulls. Of all of the Japanese Convention Playoff groups, Chicago could also be scuffling probably the most in the intervening time. They’re 8-15 because the All-Star Break with a -7.1 web ranking. That bore out in two late season blowout Bucks wins. Chicago’s additionally handled well being points, as Lonzo Ball is out for the yr, however for now they’re principally wholesome with Patrick Williams again within the fold. From my vantage level, it’s one of many simpler attracts within the Japanese Convention, now it’s as much as the Bucks to indicate that they’re the superior workforce. Let’s break it down.

And for the view from the opposite aspect of the border, be certain to move to our brethren at BlogaBull.com.

Matchup Historical past

When pondering the trendy historical past of Bucks-Bulls, notably within the Playoffs, there’s just one place to begin:

Previous to Milwaukee’s surge to relevancy below Bud, few modern-era Bucks moments are extra iconic than this. Not solely was this one of the vital lopsided video games in Playoff historical past, however it offers us an ideal line of demarcation between younger, scrappy Giannis and the evolution into the court-swallower he’s turn out to be. That sequence additionally featured the vitality of a a possible 3-0 comeback, beginning with sport 4 of that sequence, when Jerryd Bayless hit this iconic game-winner. I used to be within the area that day, and the stands have been SO stuffed with Bulls followers, my hate for his or her fanbase grew three sizes that day.

Sadly, within the years since, the Bulls have been, nicely, dangerous. The Bucks have dominated this franchise within the Bud period to the diploma it’s genuinely unhappy to observe them play from the months of October-mid April.

Now, the names have modified for Chicago considerably this yr, however the outcomes have stayed the identical. What appeared like a plucky budding rivalry in video games one and two this season rapidly was the everyday working over the Bulls. A Bull dehorned is far much less threatening, and as somebody who has actually dehorned many bulls in my life…the Bucks have dehorned this franchise.

The most recent end result, a 127-106 win, featured Brook Lopez turning their protection to hamburger. If you wish to mirror on the video games, listed below are the prolonged recaps from these ventures.

Backside line, it acquired much less fairly because the yr wore on. That being stated, Chicago definitely presents extra potential for some rivalry juice than the also-ran Pistons or Magic of yr’s previous. We even acquired a recent infusion of some vitriol with the introduction of GraysonGate, however even the Bulls followers appeared to lose curiosity in booing him fairly so enthusiastically because the season wore on.

One Huge Query: Who Guards Giannis?

There’s a purpose this query isn’t, “Who can guard Giannis?” However on this occasion, we actually solely want two phrases: “Patrick Williams.” Billy Donovan telegraphed as such within the final two matchups towards the Bucks, when the lately returned from damage Williams matched up with Giannis for almost all of possessions. It was none too quickly both for this Bulls workforce. The monitoring knowledge confirmed that Nikola Vucevic (OOF METER) and Tristan Thompson (eek) acquired the first process of chasing Milwaukee’s celebrity in video games one and two respectively.

Defensive monitoring subject aim knowledge is simply too finnicky to learn all that a lot into, however we all know exactly how these first two video games went. Sure, the effectivity doesn’t look all that good on paper, going 11-23 and 12-22, however Giannis additionally manufactured 31 free throws in these two contests. He nailed all the things on the rim, however his in-between and three sport weren’t working one bit. Because the season wore on, he’s seemed much more snug with these pull-up midrange pictures too, so perhaps the maths swings again his approach in these Playoff video games. Both approach, these two simply aren’t viable choices towards the pace and energy of Giannis, notably with Milwaukee’s elevated emphasis within the paint after Brook returned. Thompson, ostensibly a powerful individual, wilts like spinach right here even after giving Giannis a large berth on the arc.

It ain’t gonna work. And when Donovan is saying this type of stuff, Bulls followers ought to be frightened.

Williams is a greater possibility given he can crowd Giannis extra realistically on the perimeter, which is, IMHO, nonetheless the “finest” defensive technique towards him. Antetokounmpo tried simply 25 pictures within the closing two sport mixed, hitting 16 of them. His 9 turnovers within the third sport is a black mark, however he had as many dangerous passes as I’ve seen from him all season in that one, on high of leaving his ft too continuously. He wants to indicate endurance when driving, and if the Bulls present assist he has to only toss it excessive. The previous few video games of the common season have been mainly observe runs for Giannis passing over double groups.

Regardless, even when Williams performs Giannis nicely, he doesn’t have the energy to carry up on a post-up and no one on the Bulls inside strikes worry into Antetokounmpo as a assist defender.

The Bulls are lucky to have Williams again, however he gained’t be capable to maintain up all sequence towards a totally locked-in Antetokounmpo.

4 Components Breakdown

Let’s check out the fundamental offensive and defensive rules for each of those groups from their 4 elements on CleaningTheGlass.com.

The Bulls even have a couple of issues going for them right here! Whereas their offense is middling, they have been a extremely proficient capturing workforce all season. They ranked close to the highest of the league by way of three-point proportion…however they barely took any from that vary. In the meantime, in addition they defend the ball with a low turnover proportion and so they get to the road at a top-ten fee. Sadly, a number of of these benefits are mitigated by Milwaukee’s defensive statistics.

Turnovers/Free Throws: Milwaukee doesn’t attempt to manufacture turnovers on their very own, nor do they put their opponents on the road. It’s been nicely documented by Eric Nehm at The Athletic how Milwaukee is hyper-cognizant of not letting DeMar DeRozan get to the road. Sustaining self-discipline towards the Bulls quantity shooter is the 1st step to stopping the Bulls from discovering offensive rhythm. Coach Bud and his gamers noticed DeRozan’s 18 FTA of their first matchup, then held him to 5, then zero, then eight. Chicago will not be almost as disciplined, and whereas Giannis might not get the best whistle given postseason play tends to characteristic extra swallowing, I count on him to have the ability to manufacture factors aplenty from the charity stripe.

Rebounding: Whereas the Bulls additionally defensively rebound at a top-ten fee, I’m going to be watching the Bucks vigor on the offensive glass very intently. As I’ve documented many occasions this season, they rode a 29.9% offensive rebound fee within the Playoffs final yr all the way in which to a title. Can they sniff that ridiculous determine once more this yr? Right here’s a stable first litmus check.

Taking pictures: Bear in mind this? One way or the other, Mitchell’s headline held true all through the Playoffs, and the Bucks nonetheless gained a title. Milwaukee boasted the eighth finest mark from three this season, 37%, and I’m steeling myself for the inevitable precipitous fall of that determine. It’s even freakier given they’ve leaned extra into the three ball this season reasonably than working their technique to the rim, with 39.8% of their pictures coming from deep, sixth highest proportion. However not so quick my good friend!

Since Brook Lopez returned on March 14, Milwaukee’s taken 36.5% of their pictures from deep (sixteenth highest), and 33.4% on the rim (twelfth highest versus their season-long twenty first rating). Retaining that up ought to mitigate any potential three-point capturing flux they discover themselves in, and there was no higher time to extend their capturing on the rim than proper earlier than this Bulls sequence.

Chicago permits the very best proportion of pictures on the rim within the league, 36.5%. Meaning Brook and Giannis ought to be capable to rampage the paint. And whereas the Bulls have a high ten mark by way of opponent proportion on the rim, we noticed how that labored out within the latter two video games between these two when the Bucks giants have been parading to the tin, as they decisively gained the factors within the paint battle. The Bulls permit the second fewest proportion of pictures from lengthy vary as nicely, they’re intent on driving groups off the road, which you’ll see very often of their matchups when Bucks pumpfake after which drive into their smooth underbelly. Search for extra of that, and particularly drive and kicks that result in ball motion across the perimeter.

On the opposite aspect of the ball, Chicago does exactly the other of what we’ve seen usually deflate this Bucks workforce: shoot threes. They’re useless final with simply 30.4% of their jumpers coming from deep. The midrange, particularly lengthy midrange, is their specialty and one can count on to see loads of Vucevic, DeRozan and Caruso trying these very pictures. They’re greater than proficient at them, hitting a top-five fee, however the Bucks are going to reside with these pictures time and again versus letting them dive to the rim.

Bud’s Rotation

Given all season lengthy we’ve hemmed and hawed over getting this dude or that lad extra minutes, making an attempt to foretell how Bud will lastly method it on this sequence ought to be a enjoyable train for the parents at residence. In anyone playoff sport, there are 240 minutes up for grabs (5 gamers x 48 minutes). I truthfully don’t see all that many in-series changes from a personnel standpoint required of Bud, so right here’s how I count on a median sport to play out:

Guard

• Jrue Vacation: 40 minutes
• Wes Matthews: 22 minutes
• Grayson Allen: 20 minutes
• Jevon Carter (or George Hill): 10 minutes

Ahead

• Khris Middleton: 38 minutes
• Pat Connaughton: 25 minutes
• Giannis Antetokoumpo: 38 minutes

Huge

• Brook Lopez: 27 minutes
• Bobby Portis: 20 minutes

Sequence Prediction

I typically don’t like being this dismissive of an opponent, notably after I’m nonetheless curious how a lot our workforce will be capable to “flip the swap” within the postseason, however I simply can’t see this going every other approach than a Milwaukee win. The Bulls perimeter protection can’t cowl up for his or her deficiencies within the inside, Caruso doesn’t have an opportunity to match the energy of Jrue Vacation, Giannis and Brook can run roughshod within the paint. Maybe DeRozan will get scorching sufficient to win a sport, however even when he scored 40 within the closing common season matchup, Chicago misplaced by 21. It’s a mismatch on paper and within the numbers.

Bucks in 5.

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