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Will Michigan see a quiet winter or another COVID-19 surge?

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Will Michigan see a quiet winter or another COVID-19 surge?


Whether or not a brand new coronavirus variant takes maintain within the coming weeks may decide if Michigan will endure one other seasonal COVID surge or get pleasure from its first quiet winter in three years.

Modeling from The COVID-19 State of affairs Modeling Hub supply projections for the following six months, with a handful of various eventualities primarily based on vaccine uptake and the emergence of hypothetical new variants. Well being officers have regarded to those fashions all through the pandemic to assist estimate upcoming developments.

The newest fashions counsel Michigan may see COVID instances and hospitalizations proceed to plateau and even decline this fall if there aren’t any new immune-escaping variants of coronavirus that acquire traction by way of the tip of the 12 months.

Alternatively, a brand new variant with the flexibility to evade current immunity may open the door to a different rise in infections, hospitalizations and deaths this winter, very like omicron brought about in 2021.

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“It’s the sort of state of affairs the place I might find it irresistible if we bought a pleasing shock and we ended up not having a winter spike, however I believe we in all probability ought to put together for one,” mentioned Marisa Eisenberg, an affiliate professor of epidemiology on the College of Michigan who assists the state with infectious illness modeling. “Historical past has proven that normally we do get one.”

The distinction between State of affairs Hub’s most pessimistic state of affairs (new variant, low booster uptake), and its most optimistic state of affairs (no new variant, excessive booster uptake early on), is about 600,000 hospitalizations and 70,000 deaths nationwide.

The group estimates early booster availability and uptake would avert 6-12% of instances, 10-16% of hospitalizations, and 12-15% of deaths.

COVID questions: Are the brand new vaccine boosters nonetheless free? Who’s eligible?

Omicron subvariants BA.4 and BA.5 proceed to make up greater than 95% of sequenced samples within the U.S. One other omicron subvariant often known as BA.2.75, initially recognized in India, made up 1.3% of sequenced U.S. instances final week and is being monitored by the World Well being Group.

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“Predicting what the precise new variant goes to be and when it would emerge is a very powerful downside,” Eisenberg mentioned. “It relies upon a lot on transmission occurring not simply in Michigan however all world wide, and different variables.

“There are lots of totally different variants that (the World Well being Group) and others are conserving monitor of. Whether or not any a kind of is more likely to sort of emerge and turn into the following dominant variant is hard to say.”

Michigan’s COVID-19 developments have been constant from week to week all through the summer season, with regular will increase during the last three months. Over the last week, the state reported a median of 1,849 instances and 17 deaths per day — up from 1,588 instances and eight deaths per day three months in the past.

Equally, hospitals had been treating 1,174 COVID sufferers as of Tuesday, Sept. 20, in comparison with 777 such sufferers on June 21.

The newest numbers aren’t far off from mid-September 2021, when the state was reporting about 2,772 instances and 21 deaths per day. Case counts had been probably extra correct then, attributable to much less availability of at-home testing.

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Within the months that adopted, a extra infectious variant often known as omicron took over delta because the dominant pressure within the U.S., leading to spikes in case, loss of life and hospitalization charges. By mid-January, there have been greater than 17,500 instances being reported per day in Michigan, and hospitalizations neared 5,000 COVID sufferers as well being programs begged for residents to train warning.

The fashions from State of affairs Hub present potential for one more spike close to the tip of the 12 months. Additionally they depart the door open for charges to proceed plateauing even regardless of a hypothetical new variant, because it’s tough to foretell the infectiousness of a hypothetical new variant.

One other huge issue at play can be how a lot of the inhabitants will get the brand new bivalent vaccines. The up to date booster pictures, which turned out there to Michiganders earlier this month, had been made to supply safety towards the unique coronavirus pressure from the beginning of the pandemic, in addition to omicron BA.4 and BA.5.

Absent of a brand new variant, the fashions challenge early boosters may forestall 2.4 million instances, 137,000 hospitalizations, and 9,700 deaths from COVID.

“The bivalent booster will assist battle the omicron subvariants, together with BA.4 and 5,” mentioned Dr. Natasha Bagdasarian, Michigan’s chief medical govt, in a ready assertion. “COVID-19 vaccines stay our greatest protection towards the virus, and we suggest all Michiganders keep updated.”

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About 63% of Michiganders bought an preliminary dose of the unique vaccines. Of them, about 59% bought an preliminary booster dose. The state hadn’t printed any information on bivalent booster uptake as of Wednesday, Sept. 21.

State of affairs Hub notes that even one of the best fashions of rising infections wrestle to provide correct forecasts higher than a number of weeks out attributable to unpredictable variables like altering coverage setting, habits change, improvement of recent management measures, and random occasions.

Eisenberg mentioned it’s getting tougher to make these fashions, as a result of the image of current immunity and re-infection is getting more and more difficult with the evolving coronavirus variants. Nonetheless, they continue to be helpful.

“They’re not making an attempt to challenge what’s going to occur,” she mentioned. “They’re saying ‘if we get a brand new variant, right here’s what it would seem like. If we don’t, right here’s what it would seem like.’”

To discover a vaccine close to you, go to the net vaccine finder instrument and enter your ZIP code. For those who’re on the lookout for a bivalent booster, choose one or each of the bivalent pictures from Pfizer and Moderna.

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Learn extra on MLive:

Michigan experiences 16,901 COVID instances, 147 new deaths as plateau continues

Michigan docs could empower pharmacists to prescribe contraception drugs, licensing company says

Michigan could possibly be in for a worse flu season than current years

Mail poll preprocessing doable earlier than election as negotiations proceed

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The place’s the middle of Michigan’s inhabitants? See the way it’s modified since 1880



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Michigan steps back from developing 1,400-acre rural megasite

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Michigan steps back from developing 1,400-acre rural megasite


Michigan is no longer pursuing a plan to turn farmland into an industrial site after facing community pushback on developing the controversial megasite.

The Michigan Economic Development Corp. and the Lansing Area Economic Partnership, LEAP, put together a 1,400-acre megasite in Eagle Township to attract a largescale, job-creating investment.

But after the state disbursed nearly $6 million to the project, it’s been halted.

“We continue to believe the site could have great potential given its proximity to infrastructure, workforce and other adjacent industrial uses,” said Otie McKinley, a spokesperson for the Michigan Economic Development Corp. “We also recognize that this is not the right time to pursue additional development on the site.”

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‘At what cost?’ Michigan communities fight mega sites despite promise of jobs

The Eagle Township megasite, also known as the Michigan Manufacturing Innovation Campus, was one of four megasites the state started assembling two years ago as a part of its strategy to land major billion-dollar investments.

Named for their size, each “build-ready” megasite is at least 1,000 acres.

Others are located in Mundy Township near Flint, Shiawassee County and Marshall, where Ford Motor Co. is building a $2.5 billion electric vehicle battery plant.

The Michigan Strategic Fund earmarked $75 million two years ago to make these megasites “build ready” with infrastructure upgrades and real estate acquisition.

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For the Eagle Township property, the state distributed $5.95 million to LEAP for site prep. LEAP did not respond to questions about how the funding was spent.

A former map of the Michigan Manufacturing Innovation Campus, a 1,400-acre megasite located in Eagle Township. (Photo provided by the Lansing Area Economic Partnership)

LEAP says there was a “sense of urgency” because of Michigan’s need for “sites of that magnitude to pursue important semiconductor and EV-related industry investment projects to reshore US manufacturing and technology jobs.”

It took six months of “confidential real estate assembly” to put together the Eagle Township megasite, according to LEAP. This included farmland donated to Michigan State University by late farmer David Morris and private properties under a three-year option agreement.

LEAP has since allowed the real estate options to expire after “the local municipality leaders and neighbor sentiment turned from initial unanimous support into significant opposition.”

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“We took the further step of offering early termination to all affected property owners in recent weeks,” LEAP said in a statement.

Michigan assembling 1,000-acre ‘mega sites’ to attract big investments

This decision comes after the project faced significant backlash from community members who objected to the large swath of rural land becoming a major industrial site.

Opposition gained momentum over the past two years through a 3,200-member Facebook group called “Stop the Mega Site, Eagle MI.” Red signs proclaiming “No Eagle Megasite” have also dotted the rural community located about 15 miles west of Lansing.

Eagle Township Supervisor and local farmer Troy Stroud, 54, says he’s cautiously optimistic about the news.

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“We’re not all farmers in Eagle, but it’s a very strong part of how we identify and what we enjoy about where we live,” he said. “It’s what matters to us, and you have to fight for what matters to you.”

Eagle Township

Michigan is no longer marketing a 1,400 megasite in Eagle Township for future industrial development. (Photo by Rose White | MLive)Rose White | MLive

A key sticking point for opponents was that Morris, a former Eagle Township supervisor and longtime farmer, donated his centennial family farm to Michigan State University with the stipulation it must remain farmland until 2031. MSU previously said the agreement would extend to any future owner, but the university was sued last year for allegedly redacting too much information about the deal.

Stroud says a “lack of transparency” was another major issue after former township supervisor Patti Schafer signed non-disclosure agreements about the project.

“We just wanted some transparency around what it was,” he said. “It just became this quest of wanting to know the knowledge, the details, what was really happening.”

State approves $250M grant for new Genesee County megasite

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This led to Schafer, Township Treasurer Kathy Oberg and Trustee Richard Jones facing recall efforts over the NDAs. Schafer lost her seat to Stroud while Oberg and Jones both resigned last November.

Secrecy around economic development has also been contentious in Lansing where lawmakers have signed confidentiality agreements tied to big deals.

It remains unclear what the future holds for the Eagle Township megasite.

Both LEAP and the Michigan Economic Development Corp. said it is not currently being marketed for development. A website for the Michigan Manufacturing Innovation Campus is now password protected. And the “primary economic opportunity” LEAP was trying to land chose another location outside the region.

Additionally, Eagle Township adopted a 220-page master plan in September that reflects residents’ will “to maintain the cherished natural and rural charm of the community.” It also updated its zoning rules around industrial sites.

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“The future of a site in Eagle Township remains in the hands of the community,” McKinley said. “We are always open to any future engagement should their vision or plans for development on that site change from what they are today.”



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Michigan State’s leading rusher a familiar name for Rutgers football fans

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Michigan State’s leading rusher a familiar name for Rutgers football fans


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PISCATAWAY – It’s been a long college football journey for Michigan State’s leading rusher, but it’s one that started five years ago with Rutgers football.

Running back Kay’ron Lynch-Adams spent the 2019 and 2020 seasons with the Scarlet Knights before transferring to UMass, but now he’s with the Spartans and a player Rutgers’ defense will need to limit Saturday (3:30 p.m., FS1) at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing.

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The 5-foot-10, 215-pound Ohio native returned to the Power 4 level with the Spartans as a sixth-year graduate transfer, and through 11 games has a team-leading 580 yards rushing on 124 carries (4.7 yards per attempt) with two touchdowns.

Lynch-Adams’ production isn’t surprising to Rutgers coach Greg Schiano, who on Monday said he believed Lynch-Adams had this type of potential.

“I was disappointed when he left. I liked the young man, and I also really liked the football player,” Schiano said. “And I can remember exactly where I was when he called me to tell me he was leaving. I was truly disappointed, and really tried to keep him.”

Lynch-Adams played in nine games for Rutgers in 2019, finishing with 161 rushing yards on 48 carries. Then in 2020, he ran for 159 yards and one touchdown on 35 carries in the pandemic-shortened nine-game season.

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The problem for Lynch-Adams was that there was a stellar running back atop the depth chart – now two-time Super Bowl champion Isiah Pacheco of the Kansas City Chiefs.

While Schiano didn’t want Lynch-Adams to leave, he couldn’t blame him either.

“I understood why,” Schiano said. “You know, you had this guy by the name of Pacheco in front of him, and he’s a pretty good player, too.”

Lynch-Adams was productive at UMass – last season he rushed for 1,157 yards on 236 carries with 12 touchdowns.

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“It’s not like I have stayed in touch with him but I have a little bit,” Schiano said. “I really respect him. He’s a hard-working kid. He’s a really tough football player and I love the way he played. I loved what he did. He was a team guy. I was disappointed when we lost him, and I’m not surprised that he’s having success.”

Lynch-Adams will be the latest challenge for Rutgers’ run defense, which has been up and down this season. He splits carries with Nate Carter, who’s rushed for 452 yards and four touchdowns this season.

The Scarlet Knights are hoping to pick up a seventh regular-season victory, something they haven’t done since 2014.

Limiting Lynch-Adams will be a key to making that happen.

“He’s someone that we have to stop now for sure,” Schiano said.

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What injury? Freshman leads Michigan State past Colorado in Maui Invitational opener

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What injury? Freshman leads Michigan State past Colorado in Maui Invitational opener


So much for Jase Richardson’s sprained left ankle.

Less than a week after rolling it late in a game and being helped off the court, he led Michigan State on it.

The freshman guard came off the bench to score a career-high 13 points as the Spartans rolled to a 72-56 win against Colorado on Monday in the opening around of the Maui Invitational at the Lahaina Civic Center.

In the first tournament setting of the season, Michigan State overcame another miserable shooting performance beyond the arc (2-for-21) with a deep rotation, explosive transition game and active defense.

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The Spartans (5-1) will play their second of three games in three days on Tuesday (6 p.m., ESPN) in a semifinal against Memphis (5-0), which survived a late rally to knock off No. 2 UConn 99-97 in overtime earlier Monday. The other half of the bracket features No. 4 Auburn, No. 5 Iowa State, No. 12 North Carolina and Dayton, who are all playing later Monday night.

Richardson made six of eight field goals and was one of 10 different scorers for the Spartans, whose bench outscored the Buffaloes 40-13. Frankie Fidler scored nine, Jeremy Fears had eight and six assists and Coen Carr had eight points.

Julian Hammond led Colorado with a game-high 15 points while Elijah Malone scored 14.

Any concerns about Richardson’s mobility after suffering a sprained ankle late in last week’s 83-75 win against Samford were quickly erased. He checked in less than four minutes into the game and immediately got in the paint for a basket. Richardson shot 4-for-4 from the floor in the first half and Carr made all three of his shot attempts as the two combined for 14 of Michigan State’s 23 bench points in the opening 20 minutes.

That helped make up for the awful 3-point shooting that has plagued the Spartans so far this season. They entered Monday’s game ranked 352nd out of 355 teams in the nation from beyond the arc at just 22.1 percent and picked up where they left off. Michigan State shot 50 percent (15-for-30) from the floor in the opening half despite missing all nine 3-point attempts.

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After the teams traded baskets and slim leads, the Spartans closed the half on a 17-4 run. Colorado went scoreless for more than five minutes and missed 10 straight shots at one point before going into halftime trailing 38-25.

Coming out of the locker room, the Buffaloes put together an 8-2 run with a pair of triples from Hammond but three quick turnovers prevented them from further shrinking the deficit. After Michigan State missed its first 14 triple tries, Richardson knocked one down a little more than six minutes into the second half to reestablish a double-digit advantage. The Spartans cruised down the stretch to secure a spot in the semifinals.



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