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UM report forecasts moderate economic growth in Michigan, nation in 2025-26

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UM report forecasts moderate economic growth in Michigan, nation in 2025-26


As the Federal Reserve continues to cut interest rates amid a cooling job market, the economy is poised for moderate growth in Michigan and nationally over the next two years, according to University of Michigan economists.

The national economy is projected to grow 2.3% in the fourth quarter of 2024 with the unemployment rate averaging 4.2%, while growth may ease slightly in the near future due to a slowing labor market, the UM economists said in a U.S. Economic Outlook for 2025–2026.

Meanwhile, Michigan’s economy has slowed since spring, with heightened uncertainty due to the recent elections, the economists wrote in a Michigan Economic Outlook for 2025–2026. Both reports were written by Jacob T. Burton, Gabriel M. Ehrlich, Kyle W. Henson, Daniil Manaenkov, Niaoniao You and Yinuo Zhang.

“The U.S. economy has gone through times of great uncertainty before and emerged intact,” the economists wrote. “We are projecting that both Michigan and the nation will follow that path over the next two years.”

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Job growth in Michigan is expected to decline in the second half of the year, but grow moderately in 2025 and 2026.

“We believe the election results have amplified the uncertainty surrounding Michigan’s economic outlook,” the economists wrote. “We project a small dip in Michigan’s job count in the back half of 2024 to give way to moderate job gains in 2025 and 2026, but the outlook depends critically on uncertain policy decisions and the subsequent market responses.”

The economists expect job growth in the state to be strongest in health care, leisure and hospitality and government, while sectors including manufacturing and professional services are expected to remain stable.

“We are projecting the state economy to return to growth over the next two years as easier monetary policy and another round of tax cuts boost medium-term growth,” the economists wrote. “Michigan adds 19,000 payroll jobs next year and an additional 26,700 in 2026. The unemployment rate in Michigan is projected to fall from 4.6% in late 2024 to 4.3% by the end of 2026.”

The Detroit, Grand Rapids and Ann Arbor metro areas showed a downward trend in job growth, with Detroit and Grand Rapids seeing 0.1% growth during the past year. Ann Arbor saw relatively stronger job growth of 1.3% as of September, according to the report. Metro-level data for October was not available for the report, officials said.

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The report attributes the underlying cause of the slowdown in Michigan’s job market as the Federal Reserve’s policy of monetary tightening to control inflation.

“Although the Fed has recently pivoted toward reducing short-term interest rates, we believe that real interest rates remain at a restrictive level and that the effects of the Fed’s past tight monetary policy continue to impact Michigan’s economy,” the economists wrote. “Indeed, in many ways, the national rebalancing in the labor market is precisely what the Fed hoped to engineer with its policy actions. Unfortunately for Michigan, our relatively rate-sensitive industry mix means that higher interest rates have taken a larger economic toll than nationally.”

The Michigan outlook points to stronger personal income growth, with per capita income increasing to $64,000 in 2024 and reaching around $68,500 by 2026, up 41% from 2019.

Inflation is expected to slow to 3.3% in 2024 and 2.2% in 2025 before increasing to 2.7% in 2026 due to new tariffs that the incoming Trump administration is expected to impose.

The U.S. and Michigan economic outlook reports follow the presidential election, which economists say will result in significant changes in U.S. economic policies. In the reports, the economists shared their thoughts on about the impacts of a second Trump administration.

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The recent election of Donald Trump as well as the Republican majorities in the U.S. Senate and House will likely to result in a continuation of tax cuts Trump enacted during his first term, the economists said. Also expected is a sharp rise in tariffs on imports from China to take effect by 2026. 

While rising tariffs on Chinese imports and tax cuts for corporations and individuals are expected in upcoming years, revenue increases from tariffs are unlikely to offset revenue losses generated by tax cuts, according to the report. This could result in slower revenue growth and a sharp increase in federal deficits.

“As the stimulative effects of the expected tax cuts dominate the drag from the anticipated new tariffs, we project quarterly GDP growth to accelerate modestly during 2026, reaching a 2.5 percent annualized pace by 2026 Q4,” the economists wrote.

The report notes that the Federal Reserve has started cutting interest rates after keeping them at a 23-year high of 5.25% to 5.5% for 14 months. The rate was reduced by 50 basis points in September and 25 basis points in November, bringing it to 4.5% to 4.75%.

Additional cuts will depend on economic data, with the economists expecting another 25 basis point cut in December.

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Looking ahead at next year, the economists say they expect the Fed to make four more 25-basis-point cuts in 2025 and reach a range of 3.25–3.5% by the end of the year.

“In our view, the temporary uptick of inflation related to tariffs will not prompt the Fed to tighten policy in 2026,” economists wrote. “We believe that risk management concerns related to the potential negative growth effects of tariffs, which played a role in the 2019 rate cuts, will balance the upside risks from new tax cuts, prompting the Fed to stand pat.”

cwilliams@detroitnews.com

@CWilliams_DN



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How can Michigan boost and keep teacher diversity? New report has ideas – Bridge Michigan

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How can Michigan boost and keep teacher diversity? New report has ideas – Bridge Michigan


  • About 1 in 10 teachers in Michigan are people of color, compared with a third of students
  • New report highlight barriers that stop people from becoming teachers
  • Research shows teacher diversity is linked to better student performance 

As Michigan schools continue to struggle to find enough highly qualified teachers, a new report points to a lack of teacher diversity statewide.

Statewide, 11.3% of teachers are people of color, compared to about 37.7% of students in Michigan public schools, according to new analysis from EdTrust-Midwest, a school policy and advocacy organization. 

Charlotte Pierce, senior policy analyst for EdTrust-Midwest, said about 11% of students go to schools with no teachers of color, meaning about 1 in 10 Michigan students are “going to school and seeing no diverse representation in the front of their classrooms.”

The report offers several ideas to increase teacher diversity throughout the pipeline — from the moment someone chooses to become a teacher all the way through the person’s employment in a school. 

Research shows that Black students who are taught by a Black teacher are more likely to graduate high school and enroll in college while being less likely to be chronically absent or get suspended, said Seth Gershenson, a public policy professor at American University. Gershenson researches teacher diversity and said there are also social benefits to teacher diversity.

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School is one of the first places children encounter adults that aren’t family members, and “it’s useful for kids of all backgrounds to see that people of different backgrounds can be in those professional positions of authority.”

EdTrust-Midwest is calling for state policy and funding changes to increase teacher diversity. (Screenshot)

EdTrust-Midwest’s report, released Tuesday, builds on findings from earlier this year, including a report revealing that while districts with the highest concentration of student poverty employ 13.5% of teachers in the state, they employ 38% of the teachers who have emergency credentials.

Teachers in those high-poverty districts also employ 33.5% of the teachers statewide who are teaching outside of the grade level or subject area on their teaching license. 

“Our goal is to increase the teachers of color who join and stay in the teacher workforce,” said Pierce of EdTrust-Midwest. 

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The report joins a chorus of other recent reports calling for changes to Michigan’s education system. A state-sponsored report from the University of Michigan’s Youth Policy Lab recommends giving the governor more authority over education policy and more funding for the Michigan Department of Education. A report from the Autism Alliance of Michigan and other special education stakeholders calls for changes in how special education is funded in public schools. 

The report also comes during a time where the federal government has placed increased scrutiny on diversity, equity and inclusion efforts.

The teacher starting salary in Michigan is $41,645, according to a report from Education Policy Innovation Collaborative at Michigan State University. 

Actions, recommendations

Michigan has a program to help students in sixth through 12th grade to explore teaching as a profession, funding to help future teachers with college scholarships and financial support for student teaching.

The group recommends the state find ways to expose younger students to teaching as a profession, continue the scholarships and student teaching support and help teachers pay back their student loans.  

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As college students work toward their teaching credential, EdTrust-Midwest recommends curricula that are “culturally and linguistically sustaining for candidates of color” and that the state “should strengthen its oversight of teacher preparation programs” to ensure teachers are prepared to teach. 

The Michigan Department of Education has repeatedly advocated for funding to address teacher workforce concerns 

“There have been an additional 2,272 teachers of color added to the state workforce in the last eight years, which is a 34% increase,” MDE said in a statement, noting that “the department recognizes that more work is necessary to increase the diversity of the state’s educator workforce.”

It was not immediately clear how many teachers of color left the profession in those eight years.

MDE also assesses educator preparation programs when they are initially formed and after five years. Programs are evaluated annually by the state and required to have national accreditation. 

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EdTrust-Midwest recommends districts having inclusive working environments for teachers of color, create affinity groups and “same-race early teacher mentoring relationships for new teachers of color.”

Finally, the group recommends putting in additional protections so that new teachers are not lost to layoffs through “Last In, First Out” policies. This could include protections for teachers in subject areas that are often hard to fill or teachers who completed a “grow your own” program. 

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Michigan deer season ends with fewer hunters despite healthier deer population

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Michigan deer season ends with fewer hunters despite healthier deer population


NORTHERN MICHIGAN (WPBN/WGTU) — Firearm deer season has come to a close in Michigan, and state wildlife officials say fewer hunters took to the woods this year. It’s a surprise that’s raising concerns even as the overall deer population appears healthier than in the past.

“Overall deer season this year, to date, seem like things have been going fairly slow,” DNR Biologist Steve Griffith said. “The hunters that we’ve interviewed have reported not a lot of camps in the woods.”

Griffith said seeing the low turnout was a surprise.

“It just seems like there were fewer hunters in the woods Opening day, which was surprising,” Griffith said. “Being on a Saturday, we expect there to be a spike. People don’t have to typically won’t have to take time off to hunt the first two days.”

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The DNR is hopeful that the numbers in future years will even out and stay steady.

“We have the hunters that we that we have talked to have been seeing a moderate amount of deer,” Griffith said. “Most of them actually report seeing closer to a one-to-one buck to doe ratio.”

Despite the drop in deer hunters, Griffith said in the past, they used to see a 50-doe-to-one-buck ratio, and what we are seeing now with a one-to-one ratio, is much better.

“Getting the doe numbers down allows for some of the resources to be spread out and gives the bucks a chance to develop antlers and actually they have to move around a little bit,” Griffith said.

Seeing the drop in deer hunters around, it is creating some concerns.

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“With the decline in the hunting community we are hampered as far as having enough hunters that are successful to keep tabs on the on the deer population,” Griffith said.

While we are seeing lower numbers in northern Michigan, Griffith said the southern half of the Lower Peninsula is doing better overall as more and more people are hunting closer to home.

“That’s where a lot of deer are down there. That’s farm country more fertile soils and so I’m sure the activity down there should remain pretty active pretty good,” Griffith said.



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Pat Fitzgerald’s task restoring Michigan State football starts with jolting fans to life

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Pat Fitzgerald’s task restoring Michigan State football starts with jolting fans to life


EAST LANSING – After being formally introduced as Michigan State’s new coach and meeting with donors, Pat Fitzgerald made a brief stop at Spartan Stadium.

As part of a video filmed by the program’s social team, he stepped through the tunnel while holding hands with his wife, Stacy, but it was far from a first impression.

Fitzgerald played and coached for Northwestern at the century-old stadium and recalled a mistake made his first time as head coach in East Lansing.

“We made some poor decision to warm up in front of the student section,” Fitzgerald said during Tuesday’s introductory press conference. “I don’t know why we decided to do that, that was a first and last time that we were going to ever do that.”

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In Fitzgerald’s debut season as head coach in 2006, Michigan State rallied from a 35-point deficit in the third quarter in an NCAA-record breaking comeback to win 41-38. A year later, the Wildcats survived student section antics to pull out a 48-41 overtime victory in East Lansing.

“Spartan Stadium has always been an incredibly challenging place to play, I know first-hand,” Fitzgerald said. “I don’t want to talk about a lot of those games, we’ll leave those alone, but what jumps out so much is the pride, the people, the commitment and the resources to compete at the highest level. I’m here because I believe deeply in what we can build together.”

Fitzgerald replaces Jonathan Smith, who was fired after posting a 9-15 record in two seasons that lacked a program identity and public support. There are similarities between the two – both former standout players with their lone head coaching experience at their alma mater – but plenty of differences.

Smith, a West Coast native, doesn’t have a fiery personality and never connected with the Michigan State fan base. Fitzgerald is a walking, talking energy drink commercial with deep roots in the Midwest and Big Ten who immediately tapped into what the Spartans want – passion and a belief better days are ahead.

“Michigan State has historically competed for Big Ten championships and my family and I are grateful for the opportunity to make sure we get back to that place,” Fitzgerald said. “We’re going to build this for long-term success and we need everyone to buy in.”

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The same Spartan Stadium Fitzgerald remembers for its ferocity hasn’t been as daunting for opponents in recent years. There are a lot of reasons but it basically comes down to winning. Michigan State hasn’t done enough of it and college kids will find different ways to spend their time.

A Michigan State student reporter pointed out continued program failures and asked what the new coach will do to flip it.

“That’s the environment we need, the homefield, hostile, passionate environment and we have to provide a team on the field that has the students say, you know what, we’re having a fun time on Saturday, let’s go have a great party in Spartan Stadium,” Fitzgerald said. “That 12th person is going to be the student body, and obviously all the other fans, but especially the student body. You’re the core of the fanbase, you’re the heartbeat and we’re going to need you.”



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