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UM report forecasts moderate economic growth in Michigan, nation in 2025-26

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UM report forecasts moderate economic growth in Michigan, nation in 2025-26


As the Federal Reserve continues to cut interest rates amid a cooling job market, the economy is poised for moderate growth in Michigan and nationally over the next two years, according to University of Michigan economists.

The national economy is projected to grow 2.3% in the fourth quarter of 2024 with the unemployment rate averaging 4.2%, while growth may ease slightly in the near future due to a slowing labor market, the UM economists said in a U.S. Economic Outlook for 2025–2026.

Meanwhile, Michigan’s economy has slowed since spring, with heightened uncertainty due to the recent elections, the economists wrote in a Michigan Economic Outlook for 2025–2026. Both reports were written by Jacob T. Burton, Gabriel M. Ehrlich, Kyle W. Henson, Daniil Manaenkov, Niaoniao You and Yinuo Zhang.

“The U.S. economy has gone through times of great uncertainty before and emerged intact,” the economists wrote. “We are projecting that both Michigan and the nation will follow that path over the next two years.”

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Job growth in Michigan is expected to decline in the second half of the year, but grow moderately in 2025 and 2026.

“We believe the election results have amplified the uncertainty surrounding Michigan’s economic outlook,” the economists wrote. “We project a small dip in Michigan’s job count in the back half of 2024 to give way to moderate job gains in 2025 and 2026, but the outlook depends critically on uncertain policy decisions and the subsequent market responses.”

The economists expect job growth in the state to be strongest in health care, leisure and hospitality and government, while sectors including manufacturing and professional services are expected to remain stable.

“We are projecting the state economy to return to growth over the next two years as easier monetary policy and another round of tax cuts boost medium-term growth,” the economists wrote. “Michigan adds 19,000 payroll jobs next year and an additional 26,700 in 2026. The unemployment rate in Michigan is projected to fall from 4.6% in late 2024 to 4.3% by the end of 2026.”

The Detroit, Grand Rapids and Ann Arbor metro areas showed a downward trend in job growth, with Detroit and Grand Rapids seeing 0.1% growth during the past year. Ann Arbor saw relatively stronger job growth of 1.3% as of September, according to the report. Metro-level data for October was not available for the report, officials said.

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The report attributes the underlying cause of the slowdown in Michigan’s job market as the Federal Reserve’s policy of monetary tightening to control inflation.

“Although the Fed has recently pivoted toward reducing short-term interest rates, we believe that real interest rates remain at a restrictive level and that the effects of the Fed’s past tight monetary policy continue to impact Michigan’s economy,” the economists wrote. “Indeed, in many ways, the national rebalancing in the labor market is precisely what the Fed hoped to engineer with its policy actions. Unfortunately for Michigan, our relatively rate-sensitive industry mix means that higher interest rates have taken a larger economic toll than nationally.”

The Michigan outlook points to stronger personal income growth, with per capita income increasing to $64,000 in 2024 and reaching around $68,500 by 2026, up 41% from 2019.

Inflation is expected to slow to 3.3% in 2024 and 2.2% in 2025 before increasing to 2.7% in 2026 due to new tariffs that the incoming Trump administration is expected to impose.

The U.S. and Michigan economic outlook reports follow the presidential election, which economists say will result in significant changes in U.S. economic policies. In the reports, the economists shared their thoughts on about the impacts of a second Trump administration.

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The recent election of Donald Trump as well as the Republican majorities in the U.S. Senate and House will likely to result in a continuation of tax cuts Trump enacted during his first term, the economists said. Also expected is a sharp rise in tariffs on imports from China to take effect by 2026. 

While rising tariffs on Chinese imports and tax cuts for corporations and individuals are expected in upcoming years, revenue increases from tariffs are unlikely to offset revenue losses generated by tax cuts, according to the report. This could result in slower revenue growth and a sharp increase in federal deficits.

“As the stimulative effects of the expected tax cuts dominate the drag from the anticipated new tariffs, we project quarterly GDP growth to accelerate modestly during 2026, reaching a 2.5 percent annualized pace by 2026 Q4,” the economists wrote.

The report notes that the Federal Reserve has started cutting interest rates after keeping them at a 23-year high of 5.25% to 5.5% for 14 months. The rate was reduced by 50 basis points in September and 25 basis points in November, bringing it to 4.5% to 4.75%.

Additional cuts will depend on economic data, with the economists expecting another 25 basis point cut in December.

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Looking ahead at next year, the economists say they expect the Fed to make four more 25-basis-point cuts in 2025 and reach a range of 3.25–3.5% by the end of the year.

“In our view, the temporary uptick of inflation related to tariffs will not prompt the Fed to tighten policy in 2026,” economists wrote. “We believe that risk management concerns related to the potential negative growth effects of tariffs, which played a role in the 2019 rate cuts, will balance the upside risks from new tax cuts, prompting the Fed to stand pat.”

cwilliams@detroitnews.com

@CWilliams_DN



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Yaxel Lendeborg scores 29 points and No. 2 Michigan stays unbeaten with 101-83 win over Maryland

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Yaxel Lendeborg scores 29 points and No. 2 Michigan stays unbeaten with 101-83 win over Maryland


COLLEGE PARK, Md. (AP) — Yaxel Lendeborg had 29 points, a career-best nine assists and eight rebounds, and No. 2 Michigan rallied from a nine-point deficit Saturday night to defeat Maryland 101-83.

Aday Mara scored 18 points for the Wolverines (10-0, 2-0 Big Ten), who overcame a halftime deficit for the second time this season and the first since they beat TCU on Nov. 14.

Michigan scored 100 points for the fourth time in five games.

Diggy Coit made eight 3-pointers and scored 31 points for the Terrapins (6-5, 0-2), who lost center Pharrel Payne to a right leg injury late in the first half and forward Solomon Washington to ejection after he picked up his second technical foul early in the second half.

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Coit scored nine of Maryland’s first 10 points and 22 before the break, helping to prevent Michigan from opening a lead larger than six in the first half.

The Terps lost Payne, their leading scorer at 18.7 points a game, with 4:36 remaining before halftime. Yet Maryland stretched its lead from one to 50-45 at the midpoint, then expanded it to 56-47 on Elijah Saunders’ 3.

Washington, who had a first-half technical for celebrating a 3 in front of the Michigan bench, was called for a delay-of-game technical just after Saunders’ basket. His departure left the Terps without their two most experienced and imposing interior players.

Lendeborg took advantage, scoring the next eight points. Mara’s dunk with 14 minutes left made it 64-63 and gave the Wolverines the lead for good.

Elliot Cadeau’s layup with 21.2 seconds remaining got the Wolverines to 100 points for the fifth time this season.

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Michigan hosts La Salle on Dec. 21.

Maryland visits No. 24 Virginia on Dec. 20.

___

Get poll alerts and updates on the AP Top 25 throughout the season. Sign up here. AP college basketball: https://apnews.com/hub/ap-top-25-college-basketball-poll and https://apnews.com/hub/college-basketball

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Aquinas College expands automatic acceptance to 2 more West Michigan high schools

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Aquinas College expands automatic acceptance to 2 more West Michigan high schools


GRAND RAPIDS, MI – After beginning a direct admittance program at one West Michigan high school in November, Aquinas College has now expanded the program to cover more classrooms.

The guaranteed admission program, first implemented for graduates of West Catholic High School with a 2.0 GPA or above, has now been expanded to Catholic Central High School in Grand Rapids and Muskegon Catholic Central High School.

The partnership will apply to students from all three schools entering college in the fall of 2026.

The direct admission program was described by Aquinas College leaders as offering high school students a “clear path to college success” while also continuing to develop partnerships.

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Aquinas College, a private Catholic liberal arts institution located at 1700 Fulton St. E, was founded by the Dominican Sisters of Grand Rapids in 1886.

The college has enrolled 1,262 students during the 2025-26 academic year, and its new student numbers are up, with 419 new students on campus this fall, up from 311 in 2024-25.

The college’s overall enrollment total is just slightly under the approximately 1,300 students Aquinas recorded across its campus in 2023-24, according to a press release sent out in January 2025.

This year’s partnership announcements do not mark Aquinas’ first direct admittance deal.

The college also has a direct admit bachelor’s in nursing partnership with the University of Detroit Mercy, which allows students to take core curriculum courses at Aquinas and nursing classes from Detroit Mercy faculty.

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On Nov. 14, Aquinas announced its direct admittance deal with West Catholic High School.

The school, located at 1801 Bristol Ave. NW, enrolled just over 500 students as of the 2024-25 school year, according to an online school profile.

West Catholic President and CEO Jill Wierzbicki said the initiative simplifies the college application process and offers students a straightforward path to higher education.

On Nov. 20, Aquinas then announced it had also partnered with Grand Rapids’ Catholic Central High School, 319 Sheldon Blvd SE, which enrolls 567 students and is the oldest co-educational diocesan Catholic high school in the nation.

Brian Matzke, vice president for enrollment management, said there’s “no doubt that Aquinas here has had more graduates from Catholic Central than any other school in our history.”

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On Dec. 10, the college announced another partnership deal with Muskegon Catholic Central High School, 1145 W Laketon Ave., which enrolled just under 300 students in 2023-24, according to the National Center for Education Statistics.

Jerry McDowell, Muskegon Catholic Central president, said both the high school and Aquinas share a “deep commitment to developing the whole student — academically, spiritually, and individually.

“This direct-admit program provides our graduates with an exceptional opportunity to transition confidently into higher education while maintaining the Catholic values that guide their formation,” McDowell said.

Aquinas’ listed price for traditional undergraduate tuition is $41,192, according to senior director of strategic communications Dave DeJonge.

Students are eligible for annual merit scholarships between $15,000-$25,000, depending on their GPA and housing status. Additional scholarships may be available. This applies to all students who are admitted to Aquinas.

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Matzke highlighted the direct admittance program’s easy transition from one West Michigan school to another, with those accepted to Aquinas able to live on campus or commute from home depending on what best fits their needs.

He also said a growing Grand Rapids job market, combined with support from the college’s career center, contributes to a 97% placement rate for graduates.



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Legal experts question University of Michigan’s role after charges against former HC Sherrone Moore

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Legal experts question University of Michigan’s role after charges against former HC Sherrone Moore


WASHTENAW COUNTY, Mich. – Former Michigan Wolverines head football coach Sherrone Moore appeared in court Friday on charges of stalking, home invasion, and breaking and entering, just days after being fired from his position.

The 39-year-old coach, who has no prior criminal history, was terminated by the university on Wednesday following an investigation that uncovered evidence of an inappropriate relationship with a staff member.

According to prosecutors, the charges stem from an incident that occurred after the victim, a University of Michigan staff member, ended her relationship with Moore on Monday (Dec. 8).

Following the breakup, Moore allegedly made numerous unwanted calls and texts to the victim.

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The situation escalated on Wednesday, Dec. 12, 2025, when Moore allegedly forced his way into the victim’s Pittsfield Township apartment.

Prosecutors say he grabbed kitchen utensils and threatened to take his own life, allegedly telling the victim, “My blood is on your hands.”

“The totality of the behavior is highly threatening and highly intimidating. She was terrorized, your honor,” a prosecutor told the court during Friday’s arraignment.

Defense attorney Joseph Simon pushed back on prosecutors’ claims that Moore could be a threat to public safety.

“My client’s 39 years old, with zero prior criminal history, zero prior contact with the criminal justice system in any fashion,” Simon stated.

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Attorney Todd Flood, who practices both criminal defense and civil litigation, said the fallout within the university could continue depending on when the organization was first alerted about the relationship and how university athletic officials first responded.

“What did they know, when did they know it, and what did they do about it when they found out? Those are going to be the three major questions,” Flood said.

“The university could possibly have some culpability there, that they didn’t put a stop to this,” noted Flood, adding that the victim may have grounds to pursue action against both the university and Moore.

Flood said the stalking charge against Moore likely stems from a documented pattern of harassment.

“When there is a position where he is harassing, either via text messages, harassing via telephone calls, social media content, or showing up at a place where he doesn’t belong,” Flood said. “Those stalking charges are ones where you can show that pattern of conduct.”

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“He’s ultimately going to probably plead this case out, under some sort of either misdemeanor, or something that gives probation,” Flood said.

Moore posted his $25,000 bond Friday.

As part of his bond conditions, he must wear a GPS tether, undergo mental health treatment, and have no contact with the victim.

He is scheduled to appear in court in person on Jan. 22.

–> Jim Harbaugh talks Sherrone Moore’s firing, arrest after former Michigan football understudy posts bond

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