Michigan

UM report forecasts moderate economic growth in Michigan, nation in 2025-26

Published

1 year ago

November 21, 2024

UM report forecasts moderate economic growth in Michigan, nation in 2025-26

As the Federal Reserve continues to cut interest rates amid a cooling job market, the economy is poised for moderate growth in Michigan and nationally over the next two years, according to University of Michigan economists.

The national economy is projected to grow 2.3% in the fourth quarter of 2024 with the unemployment rate averaging 4.2%, while growth may ease slightly in the near future due to a slowing labor market, the UM economists said in a U.S. Economic Outlook for 2025–2026.

Meanwhile, Michigan’s economy has slowed since spring, with heightened uncertainty due to the recent elections, the economists wrote in a Michigan Economic Outlook for 2025–2026. Both reports were written by Jacob T. Burton, Gabriel M. Ehrlich, Kyle W. Henson, Daniil Manaenkov, Niaoniao You and Yinuo Zhang.

“The U.S. economy has gone through times of great uncertainty before and emerged intact,” the economists wrote. “We are projecting that both Michigan and the nation will follow that path over the next two years.”

Job growth in Michigan is expected to decline in the second half of the year, but grow moderately in 2025 and 2026.

“We believe the election results have amplified the uncertainty surrounding Michigan’s economic outlook,” the economists wrote. “We project a small dip in Michigan’s job count in the back half of 2024 to give way to moderate job gains in 2025 and 2026, but the outlook depends critically on uncertain policy decisions and the subsequent market responses.”

The economists expect job growth in the state to be strongest in health care, leisure and hospitality and government, while sectors including manufacturing and professional services are expected to remain stable.

“We are projecting the state economy to return to growth over the next two years as easier monetary policy and another round of tax cuts boost medium-term growth,” the economists wrote. “Michigan adds 19,000 payroll jobs next year and an additional 26,700 in 2026. The unemployment rate in Michigan is projected to fall from 4.6% in late 2024 to 4.3% by the end of 2026.”

The Detroit, Grand Rapids and Ann Arbor metro areas showed a downward trend in job growth, with Detroit and Grand Rapids seeing 0.1% growth during the past year. Ann Arbor saw relatively stronger job growth of 1.3% as of September, according to the report. Metro-level data for October was not available for the report, officials said.

The report attributes the underlying cause of the slowdown in Michigan’s job market as the Federal Reserve’s policy of monetary tightening to control inflation.

“Although the Fed has recently pivoted toward reducing short-term interest rates, we believe that real interest rates remain at a restrictive level and that the effects of the Fed’s past tight monetary policy continue to impact Michigan’s economy,” the economists wrote. “Indeed, in many ways, the national rebalancing in the labor market is precisely what the Fed hoped to engineer with its policy actions. Unfortunately for Michigan, our relatively rate-sensitive industry mix means that higher interest rates have taken a larger economic toll than nationally.”

The Michigan outlook points to stronger personal income growth, with per capita income increasing to $64,000 in 2024 and reaching around $68,500 by 2026, up 41% from 2019.

Inflation is expected to slow to 3.3% in 2024 and 2.2% in 2025 before increasing to 2.7% in 2026 due to new tariffs that the incoming Trump administration is expected to impose.

The U.S. and Michigan economic outlook reports follow the presidential election, which economists say will result in significant changes in U.S. economic policies. In the reports, the economists shared their thoughts on about the impacts of a second Trump administration.

The recent election of Donald Trump as well as the Republican majorities in the U.S. Senate and House will likely to result in a continuation of tax cuts Trump enacted during his first term, the economists said. Also expected is a sharp rise in tariffs on imports from China to take effect by 2026.

While rising tariffs on Chinese imports and tax cuts for corporations and individuals are expected in upcoming years, revenue increases from tariffs are unlikely to offset revenue losses generated by tax cuts, according to the report. This could result in slower revenue growth and a sharp increase in federal deficits.

“As the stimulative effects of the expected tax cuts dominate the drag from the anticipated new tariffs, we project quarterly GDP growth to accelerate modestly during 2026, reaching a 2.5 percent annualized pace by 2026 Q4,” the economists wrote.

The report notes that the Federal Reserve has started cutting interest rates after keeping them at a 23-year high of 5.25% to 5.5% for 14 months. The rate was reduced by 50 basis points in September and 25 basis points in November, bringing it to 4.5% to 4.75%.

Additional cuts will depend on economic data, with the economists expecting another 25 basis point cut in December.

Looking ahead at next year, the economists say they expect the Fed to make four more 25-basis-point cuts in 2025 and reach a range of 3.25–3.5% by the end of the year.

“In our view, the temporary uptick of inflation related to tariffs will not prompt the Fed to tighten policy in 2026,” economists wrote. “We believe that risk management concerns related to the potential negative growth effects of tariffs, which played a role in the 2019 rate cuts, will balance the upside risks from new tax cuts, prompting the Fed to stand pat.”

cwilliams@detroitnews.com

@CWilliams_DN

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Michigan

Michigan football signs former No. 1-ranked running back

Published

5 hours ago

January 8, 2026

Press Room

Michigan football signs former No. 1-ranked running back

Michigan football moved quickly to help fill its running back room on Thursday, adding the No. 1-ranked rusher in the 2024 recruiting class to the roster.

Taylor Tatum, who spent the last two seasons at Oklahoma, signed with the Wolverines for the 2026 season, The Ann Arbor News/MLive confirmed.

Tatum, listed at 5-foot-10 and 212 pounds, has three seasons of college eligibility remaining.

He appeared in 12 games for the Sooners, most of it during his true-freshman season in 2024. That first season, Tatum rushed for 278 yards and three touchdowns, highlighted by a five-carry, 69-yard game in Oklahoma’s season opener against Temple.

Tatum was hampered by injuries in 2025, appearing in just one game against South Carolina, where he rushed once for negative-1 yard.

A former four-star recruit, Tatum was considered the nation’s No. 1 running back in 2024 out of Longview High School in Texas, where he set the school record for career rushing touchdowns (53). He picked Oklahoma over Ohio State, Alabama, Oregon, USC, among others.

Tatum was also a member of the Oklahoma baseball team, though he didn’t appear in a game in 2025.

The signing comes just a day after Michigan’s leading rusher in 2025, Jordan Marshall, announced his return to the Wolverines. Since the transfer portal opened last Friday, reserve running backs Bryson Kuzdzal and Jasper Parker have entered. Parker has since signed to play at Arkansas next season.

Meanwhile, Michigan awaits a decision from its other star back, Justice Haynes, who’s left the door open to a return to college. A pair of freshmen backs, Savion Hiter and Jonathan Brown, also joined the team this week.

Tony Alford, Michigan’s running backs coach, was one of three assistants retained by new head coach Kyle Whittingham.

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Kyle Whittingham knows what Michigan football needs

Published

17 hours ago

January 8, 2026

Press Room

Kyle Whittingham knows what Michigan football needs

Michigan football is primed to win now, new coach Kyle Whittingham said this week on “The Dan Patrick Show.”

The Wolverines have made far too many headlines off the field, which is why Whittingham told Patrick the organization needs to simply get back to focusing on the reason they’re all together as a team − football.

“The place doesn’t need a rebuild, it needs a reboot of trust and getting rid of the drama and just get back to playing Michigan football without all the distractions,” Whittingham said. “It didn’t come from the players. The players were not involved. It was not some player issue – it was just the peripheral.

“Guys here have a great attitude, I met with everyone of them last week at the bowl site. Quality young men, care about academics, excited to be at Michigan, but they’ve dealt with a lot over the last few years.”

Whittingham, 66, takes over as the 22nd head coach in program history after a pair of scandals rocked the previous two men who held his job.

Jim Harbaugh led the Wolverines from 2015-23 − and left on top by winning a national championship − but also was found to have a lack of institutional control in his program by NCAA investigators after two separate NCAA violations occurred under his watch: impermissible recruiting and illegal sign-stealing.

More recently, Sherrone Moore was fired in scandal after he was found to have had a relationship with a subordinate and was subsequently arrested after he allegedly went to her house and threatened his own life − he was jailed for two nights and charged with felony home invasion, misdemeanor stalking and misdemeanor breaking and entering.

Patrick asked if there was any selling point Whittingham needed to hear specifically from Michigan. Whittingham said when he stepped away from Utah in mid-December there were only a handful of program’s he would have even entertained. He called Michigan “a special place.”

“Needed to hear that Michigan was what I thought it was,” he said. “Hey’re committed to winning here, we do have some challenges with entrance requirements, there is a little bit of a hurdle there, but talk about athletes, resources, tradition − it’s all here at Michigan.”

Whittingham also quipped about the irony of previously being a team that wore red (Utah) whose primary rival wore blue (BYU) to flipping that. It’s also not lost on him that his mentor, Urban Meyer, went 7-0 against Michigan in his tenure in Columbus − Whittingham joked at his opening press conference that Meyer’s name alone might be considered a “four-letter word” in Ann Arbor.

“Blue was our rival at Utah for years,” he said. “Now I’ve got to get used to saying, ‘Go Blue.’”

Whittingham is in the throes of one of the busiest times on the college football calendar. The transfer portal opened for a 15-day window Jan. 2-16, setting off a scramble to both retain players, scout the database and find appropriate fits for the team.

Whittingham has only known his roster and coaches for approximately 10 days – he said while down in Florida he was going to “lock himself” in a room at Schembechler Hall in Ann Arbor to watch film on the players on his roster. He has been able to keep Bryce Underwood, Andrew Marsh, Andrew Babalola, Blake Frazier, Evan Link, Jake Guarnera and Zeke Berry − the last two of whom had put their names in the transfer portal before indicating their return to U-M for 2026.

With money flowing, back-channeling frequent and poaching at an all-time high, Whittingham doesn’t see college football’s current model as something that will last as currently constructed for more than a handful of years.

“It is not sustainable, there’s no question about that,” Whittingham said. “Something’s gotta give. Within a 2- to 4-, 5-year window, you’re going to see a major overhaul of Division I football. I think it’s going to become more of a minor league NFL model. I think you’re gonna see a salary cap, collective bargaining, players as employees.

“I think all that’s coming because we cannot maintain this pace.”

Tony Garcia is the Wolverines beat writer for the Detroit Free Press. Email him at apgarcia@freepress.com and follow him on X at @RealTonyGarcia.

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Michigan

Michigan Lottery contributions over $1B to K-12 schools for 7th year in a row, state says

Published

1 day ago

January 7, 2026

Press Room

Michigan Lottery contributions over B to K-12 schools for 7th year in a row, state says

LANSING, MI – The Michigan Lottery’s annual contribution to K-12 education reached more than $1 billion for the seventh time in a row in 2025, according to the state.

The amount at $1.16 billion makes up roughly 5-6% of the state’s School Aid Fund, which has exceeded $20 billion in recent years.

It peaked in 2021 at $1.4 billion, according to the state budget office, marking a 78.4% increase in six years at the time. The reported portion for 2025 marks a slight decrease when compared to the previous five years.

In a release on Wednesday, Jan. 7, the state reported the total Lottery contribution had reached more than $30 billion since it began in 1972 and $8.7 billion within a seven-year span.

“In (2025), Lottery retailers earned more than $300 million in commissions for the sixth straight year,” Acting Lottery Commissioner Joe Froehlich said in a statement. “The support the Lottery provides to public education and to businesses throughout the state is critical and far-reaching.”

Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s office utilized Wednesday’s announcement to recap the current state investment in K-12 schools based on the budget deal lawmakers green-lit in October three months after the current fiscal year was already underway.

That includes a 4.6% hike to $10,050 per student, $201.6 million to maintain a free universal meals program that Whitmer said saves “parents almost $1,000 a year per kid,” and a series of investments geared toward boosting literacy skills.

“This year’s lottery contributions will help build on that progress and make a difference for students, educators and schools across Michigan,” the governor said in a statement.

Other budget highlights included hundreds of millions in grants to reduce class sizes and school infrastructure, as well as for career-technical education and English-language learners.

Additionally, there was another $258.7 million boost to $1.3 billion for at-risk student supports and $321 million to support mental health and school safety initiatives ― the latter including a waiver requirement that spurred litigation from schools against the state in late 2025.

According to the Michigan Lottery, participating retailers earned more than $330 million in commissions for the 2025 fiscal year. Since 2019, when the Lottery’s streak of billion-dollar contributions to the School Aid Fund began, the state reported more than $2.3 billion in commissions.

Lottery products are sold at more than 10,000 locations across the state, and over 700 retailers sold $1 million or more last year in Lottery games.

Michigan residents took home more than $2.8 billion in prizes in 2025 and over $58 billion since the Lottery began.

According to the state, roughly 25 cents went to the School Aid Fund from every dollar spent on a Michigan Lottery Ticket, while 63 cents went to players as prizes, 9 cents to vendor commissions and 3 cents to the Lottery’s operations.

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