Michigan
Re-visiting preseason predictions for Michigan Basketball
Projecting how well a college basketball team will perform has become harder and harder thanks to NIL and the transfer portal. That hasn’t stopped us (or anyone else) from making predictions.
Today, we took the time to re-visit some of our projections both from the preseason and in-season as well. So how did we do?
Let’s start all the way back in May 2024. Following Dusty May’s construction of his inaugural roster in Ann Arbor, we asked our readers what their expectations are for the 2024-25 season. It turns out we all underestimated how good the Wolverines would be — 48 percent predicted one NCAA Tournament victory, 40 percent predicted an NCAA Tournament appearance but no wins, nine percent chose Michigan would be on the wrong side of the bubble, and two percent thought it would be a true rebuild.
The fact we didn’t even pose the Sweet Sixteen as an option shows just how wildly the season played out.
In August, we took our first stab at projection a starting lineup and rotation. While we nailed the back court, we had one glaring omission in the front court.
On the guard duo of Tre Donaldson and Rubin Jones:
[…] It would make sense for Donaldson and Jones to both start. Donaldson proved to be a valuable shot-creator at Auburn, and Jones brings tons of experience and excellent on-ball defense. Jones is the type of experienced guard every team could use, so he seems like one of the locks to start looking at this roster on paper.
On Danny Wolf and Vlad Goldin sharing the floor:
May and Michigan’s assistants did hint Goldin and Wolf could share the floor for stretches, but that pairing both being in the starting lineup seems unlikely. With Goldin as the starting center, I could see Wolf serving as the backup center who can earn more minutes if he makes his shots. In the second unit, he also has more of a chance to be a lead creator, which is a good thing for his long-term growth.
I’ll give us half points for complimenting Wolf’s chance at being a lead creator, but he was far from a backup center. Not only did Wolf start every game, he became Michigan’s best player rather quickly.
Next, let’s look at our starting lineup projection from October. While we still had the back court mostly correct, we still vastly underrated Area 50-1. The idea of a 7-footer pick-and-roll hadn’t appeared in anyone’s minds yet.
Fast forward to mid-January with 13 games left, when we took a game-by-game approach to projecting the remainder of the season:
- At Purdue: Projected loss, Actual loss
- Vs. Penn State: Projected win, Actual win
- At Rutgers: Projected win, Actual win
- Vs. Oregon: Projected win, Actual win
- At Indiana: Projected win, Actual win
- Vs. Purdue: Projected win, Actual win
- At Ohio State: Projected loss, Actual win
- Vs. Michigan State: Projected win, Actual loss
- At Nebraska: Projected loss, Actual win
- Vs. Rutgers: Projected win, Actual win
- Vs. Illinois: Projected loss, Actual loss
- Vs. Maryland: Projected win, Actual loss
- At Michigan State: Projected loss, Actual loss
Final Record: Projected 22-9 (14-6 in conference), Actual 22-9 (14-6)
Our midseason projection absolutely nailed Michigan’s final record. However, how the Wolverines got there went a little bit unexpected. We correctly predicted the result of nine of the 13 games. In two games, we projected a loss when Michigan ended up winning (at Ohio State, at Nebraska). Vice versa, twice we projected a Michigan win when the Wolverines came up short (vs. Michigan State, vs. Maryland).
Lastly, we turned to KenPom in mid-February to make one final prediction on how Michigan’s post-season would play out. We looked at historical teams that KenPom gave Michigan a similar resume to. While Michigan ended up being seeded significantly lower than most of the similar teams, we hit the post-season ceiling on the money:
March Madness is great because of the chaos, and there is certainly plenty of that to be had. But based on the historical metrics of where teams similar to Michigan’s current KenPom ratings, it appears the ceiling this year is a Sweet 16 run, while an exit before winning a game is also in the cards. Anything beyond that on either side of the spectrum would be a bit of a surprise.
All in all, I don’t think we did too bad for predicting an entirely new roster in a newly expanded conference.
Michigan
West Michigan celebrates Juneteenth with parades, more
GRAND RAPIDS, Mich. (WOOD) — Friday is Juneteenth. The long-celebrated holiday, which was officially declared a federal holiday in 2021, marks the day in 1865 when enslaved Americans in Galveston, Texas, learned they were free — two years after the signing of the Emancipation Proclamation.
In Grand Rapids, a parade steps off at noon at the corner of Eastern and Hall. It will head to Dickinson Buffer Park, where an opening ceremony gets underway at 1 p.m. The celebration continues until the evening and will feature food, vendors and activities for kids.
Organizers say it’s important to recognize Juneteenth.
“We cannot properly deal with and accept our future if we don’t understand our past,” said Rhaeven Richardson with West Michigan Jewels of Africa. “So it’s very important for us to come together and bring notoriety for what Juneteenth stands for and how important it is — not just for people of color, but for everyone in this country.”
There are plenty of other Juneteenth events happening in Grand Rapids and around West Michigan. For a full list, click here.
Michigan
Michigan Department of Corrections to launch L.E.A.D. Academy program this fall
LANSING, Mich. — The Michigan Department of Corrections (MDOC) is launching the L.E.A.D. Academy, a new leadership development program set to begin this fall as part of the department’s Safe Prisons Initiative.
L.E.A.D. Academy stands for Learn Today, Empower Tomorrow, Aspire Beyond, Develop a Legacy.
Officials say the program is a four-phase leadership development pathway designed to support employee growth at every stage of a career, and intends to advance training and staff support goals by preparing employees to lead “with skill, integrity and professionalism.”
“Our workforce is constantly evolving, and it is more important than ever that we are supporting our emerging leaders in a way that will create change-makers and thought-leaders in the correctional field,” MDOC Director Heidi E. Washington said. “Well-trained professional staff create safe facilities by stepping above the status quo to challenge themselves, and those around them, to go above and beyond.”
MDOC partnered with Michigan State University to develop the program’s curriculum, focusing on leadership principles applied specifically to the corrections environment.
According to the MDOC, the program emphasizes daily conduct, communication, presence and professionalism as factors that can influence others and contribute to safer facilities.
“The curriculum is designed to help participants develop practical leadership skills rooted in communication, emotional intelligence, professionalism, and ethical decision-making,” Vivian Aranda-Hughes, an assistant professor in MSU’s School of Criminal Justice, said. “We are excited to support a program that invests in people and recognizes that leadership is demonstrated through the choices, actions, and influence individuals bring to their work every day.”
Applicants for the L.E.A.D. Academy will be selected through a formal review process after applying for the program, according to the MDOC.
To be eligible, applicants must meet the following requirements: one year of MDOC employment, attainment of satisfactory status during the initial probationary period, and full commitment to the program, including assignments outside the classroom.
Officials say the L.E.A.D. Academy is a key component of the state’s Safe Prisons Initiative, which was launched in March to improve safety and security across MDOC’s 26 prisons.
More information about MDOC’s Safe Prisons Initiative can be found online.
Michigan
Birmingham police say massive pool party should have been shut down sooner
Police in Birmingham, Michigan, say officers should have shut down a massive pool party in a residential neighborhood sooner last weekend.
More than 100 people showed up for a party in the 300 block of Westchester Way on June 13, when city officials say a private residential pool was rented out to a third party, violating zoning regulations.
“While officers shut the party down and issued multiple citations, the department acknowledges the party should have been shut down earlier,” said Birmingham police Chief Scott Grewe in a social media post. “Protecting public safety and preserving the quality of life in Birmingham neighborhoods remain top priorities. Should an event require intervention in the future, there will be police supervision to ensure the orderly and safe dispersal of attendees.
Homeowners on Westchester Way told CBS News Detroit that the street was filled with cars and some intoxicated partygoers.
“Women, I don’t even know if they were wearing anything, thong bikinis on top of vehicles, twerking,” said homeowner Brian Homer.
Birmingham police confirmed the individual who rented the backyard over the weekend was a promoter. Police say the homeowner and the person who rented the pool were among those who received citations.
Residents told CBS News Detroit that the house has been hosting parties for years and that its pool is listed on Swimply for rent.
“This isn’t the first time; this has been ongoing. This is just the first time he got caught,” said a resident who shares a fence with the homeowner who is renting their pool.
During a Birmingham City Commission meeting Monday night, Birmingham Mayor Clinton Baller said that the city had failed in this case.
Homeowners who spoke with CBS News Detroit said they are concerned about their safety, given that the neighborhood is filled with children.
In April, three men were arrested and later charged in connection with a shooting at a short-term rental in the 1400 block of East Lincoln Street. According to police, a party was advertised at the rental home, and three 18-year-old men drove up to the property, where other teens were gathering, when an argument ultimately led to a shooting.
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