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Michigan vs. Illinois prediction: Week 8 CFB odds, picks, best bets

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Michigan vs. Illinois prediction: Week 8 CFB odds, picks, best bets


Michigan’s national title defense has been underwhelming this year and its 4-2 record is misleading.

The No. 24 Wolverines narrowly escaped against USC and Minnesota before losing to Washington.

Coming off a bye week, can coach Sheronne Moore right the ship with a road test against No. 22 Illinois?

We’ve seen a steady stream of Michigan money all week, moving this line from an opener of -1.5 for the Wolverines to the current -4.5.

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Let’s dive in and see if there’s any value left in Saturday’s Big Ten matchup.

Michigan vs. Illinois odds

Team Spread Moneyline Over/Under
Michigan -4.5 (-108) -185 o44.5 (-108)
Illinois +4.5 (-112) +154 u44.5 (-112)
Odds via DraftKings

When Michigan has the ball

Moore won’t admit it publicly, but I fully believe he intended to name Jack Tuttle his starting quarterback this season. An offseason elbow injury, however, threw a wrench into those plans, and we didn’t see Tuttle until the second quarter against Washington. 

Tuttle had an interception and a fumble in the game but it was his first live reps in nearly a year, and he’s a better downfield passer than Alex Orji or Davis Warren.

With the benefit of a bye week to get up to speed in the offense, I expect Tuttle to play a much cleaner game this week. Tight end Colston Loveland’s return to full health after missing the USC game will also be pivotal.

However, I don’t expect Tuttle to need to do a ton in this game. The Wolverines will bully an Illini run defense that ranks 105th in defensive line yards. Expect Kalel Mullings and Donovan Edwards to churn out chunk yardage, keeping Tuttle out of obvious passing situations on third-and-long.

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When Illinois has the ball

Luke Altmyer has had a strong season under center for the Illini, averaging 8.6 yards per attempt and passing for 14 touchdowns to one interception.

However, according to Pro Football Focus, the former Ole Miss transfer is due for some negative regression with nine big-time throws to nine turnover-worthy plays.

Altmyer has especially struggled under pressure, with an 8.4% turnover-worthy play rate. According to PFF, Michigan has the best pass rush unit in the country and Illinois ranks just 93rd in pass-blocking.

Luke Altmyer is playing well for Illinois. Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

Elite defensive linemen Mason Graham, Kenneth Grant and Josaiah Stewart can take this game over on passing downs.

It will be difficult for the Illini to avoid those obvious passing situations, as Michigan ranks third in the country in rushing success rate allowed and Illinois ranks 105th in rushing success rate on offense.

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When the Illini faced Penn State, a similarly elite run defense, their running backs finished with 17 carries for just 62 yards (3.6 YPC). 

Michigan vs. Illinois pick

It has to be mentioned that Illinois almost lost to Purdue last week. The Illini escaped with a one-point win in overtime, but the Boilermakers had a 69% postgame win expectancy.

This was the same Purdue team that lost to Wisconsin by 46 points the week prior and had not played within 17 points of an FBS opponent all season.

Coming off a bye week with an opportunity to get its third starting quarterback of the year up to speed, this looks like a solid buy-low point for the Wolverines.


Betting on College Football?


Michigan’s defense is by far the best unit on the field in this game, and I’m banking on Wink Martindale’s group putting constant pressure on Altmyer, especially with Illinois’ struggling run game.

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I’d be surprised if Michigan’s passing attack performed on average for the rest of the season. Still, it might not need to this week, given the considerable advantage the Wolverines should have in the run game.

I’m backing Michigan as a road favorite in this spot against an overrated Illinois team primed to fall back down to earth.

Best bet: Michigan -3.5 (-115, BetMGM)


Why Trust New York Post Betting

Jacob Wayne handicaps college football and the NFL for the New York Post. He’s up 84.5 units across the two sports with a 6.27% ROI.

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Trieu: Texas LB Bryce Breeden getting to know Michigan football

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Trieu: Texas LB Bryce Breeden getting to know Michigan football


The new Michigan coaching staff got a later start in recruiting the 2027 class, but made good progress during the latter part of January’s evaluation period.

The Wolverines began their efforts out West, where the staff had prior connections, and in their home base of Michigan and the Midwest states.

They also were able to hit states outside of those two wheelhouses. One offer in Texas was to Bridge City linebacker Bryce Breeden, a 6-foot-1, 205-pound tackling machine with 225 tackles (39 for loss), 14 sacks and seven forced fumbles in the last two seasons. 

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While Breeden does not have any connections to the university, Michigan is helped by his father working and living in the state. They have talked about both Michigan and Michigan State as options so Dad could make his games.

He is working on getting to know the staff at Michigan better, but they had offered at Utah back in October.

“I’ve been in contact with coach Alex Whittingham, and his first impression was great,” Breeden said. “I’m very interested in the program now. I like how they are a run-stopping defense. I don’t know too much about the school, but I’m willing to learn more about them.”

Breeden has nearly 30 offers. Louisville, Arizona State, Pittsburgh, TCU, Northwestern, Arizona, West Virginia, Purdue, Virginia Tech and more are on that list.

A swing through Michigan where he could stop in both Ann Arbor and East Lansing make sense, but a schedule for his next few months is still in the works.

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“I haven’t finalized my spring and official visits yet, but I plan on committing around the first or second week of June,” he said.

What he knows is, how he connects with a staff will be an important component in that eventual decision.

“I’m a big relationship guy,” he said. “I want to go to a school where I’m wanted and needed, and team culture (is important).”

Breeden was District 10-4A D1 Defensive Most Valuable Player this season. He also blocked two field goals on special teams.

In the classroom, he holds a 3.7 grade-point average.

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Wolverines make progress with LB recruits

In addition to Breeden, Michigan also offered Brentwood (Tennessee) Academy linebacker Kenneth Simon II earlier in the month. 

A 6-foot-2, 200-pound four-star, Simon has 24 offers. His father Kevin Simon played at Tennessee then in the NFL. He named a top four of Alabama, Texas A&M, Tennessee and Ole Miss, but Michigan is hoping to work its way into his list.

Michigan also is set to receive a spring visit from Tooele (Utah) Stansbury linebacker Broncs Baker, who has a relationship with the Wolverine staff from their Utah days. A 6-foot-1, 215-pound prospect, he is also considering Virginia Tech, Cal, Arizona State, Boise State and more, but the Wolverines are believed to be one of the top programs for him.

More information

Bryce Breeden profile

Broncs Baker profile

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Kenneth Simon profile

Allen Trieu covers Midwest football recruiting for 247Sports. He has been featured on the Big Ten Network on its annual Signing Day Show. His Michigan and Michigan State recruiting columns appear weekly at detroitnews.com.



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Hockey roundup: Shine scores twice for Griffins; No. 2 UM wins in shootout

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Hockey roundup: Shine scores twice for Griffins; No. 2 UM wins in shootout


All-Star forward Dominik Shine scored two goals for the Grand Rapids Griffins in a 4-2 victory over the Texas Stars on Friday at Van Andel Arena in Grand Rapids.

Amadeus Lombardi and Austin Watson scored the other goals, Shai Buium had two assists and Michal Postava stopped 24-of-26 shots.

Michigan 5, Penn State 4 (SO)

Second-ranked Michigan beat No. 6 Penn State, 5-4, in a shootout on Friday at Yost Ice Arena in Ann Arbor.

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Michael Hage scored the winner in the shootout after setting up the first three goals, T.J. Hughes added two goals and Jack Ivankovic made 38 saves.

Western Michigan 6, Arizona State 2

Western Michigan improved to 21-8-0 overall with a 6-2 victory over Arizona State on Friday at Lawson Arena in Kalamazoo.

Ty Henricks, Garrett Szydlowski, Liam Valente, Alex Calbeck, Owen Michaels and Zaccharya Wisdom scored goals and Hampton Slukynsky made 25 saves.

Dubuque 7, NTDP U17s 3

Nolan Fitzhenry scored his 20th goal of the season for the NTDP U17s in a 7-3 loss against the Dubuque Fighting Saints on Friday at USA Hockey Arena in Plymouth.

The two teams will meet again on Saturday at 7 p.m.

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Local schedules

Friday

▶ Grand Rapids 4, Texas 2

▶ Michigan 5, Penn State 4 (SO)

▶ Western Michigan 6, Arizona State 2

▶ Michigan Tech 2, Lake Superior State 2

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▶ Ferris State 5, Northern Michigan 4 (SO)

▶ Dubuque 7, NTDP U17 3

Saturday

▶ Penn State at Michigan, 5

▶ Arizona State at Western Michigan, 6

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▶ Michigan Tech at Lake Superior State, 6

▶ Northern Michigan at Ferris State, 6

▶ Dubuque at NTDP 17s, 7

Sunday

▶ Texas at Grand Rapids, 4

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Whitmer adds $625M for Michigan schools for literacy & pre-K. Here’s how to track her goals.

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Whitmer adds 5M for Michigan schools for literacy & pre-K. Here’s how to track her goals.


Gov. Gretchen Whitmer unveiled a new state budget proposal this week that includes a one-time $625 million shot in the arm for Michigan K-12 schools next year with things like reading and student achieve programs.

It’s a broad continuation of priorities to combat lagging student growth over the last couple of years as the governor’s administration has vowed to expand enrollment in universal preschool and make literacy the No. 1 priority for her final year in office.

But what does state education data say about the progress on those priorities so far?

The answer may depend on the program and how progress is tracked.

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Whitmer’s latest $625 million plan, released Wednesday, Feb. 11, most notably includes:

  • $181.1 million to boost free pre-kindergarten enrollment
  • $135 million to support expanded before- and after-school programming
  • $100 million for high-impact tutoring
  • $100 million for grants to districts to purchase literacy material
  • $50 to continue implementing specialty literacy

Legislation adopted a year ago, some of which won’t take effect until next year, has already implemented specialty literacy training for 5,000 educators, as well as requirements that schools scan all students from kindergarten through third grade for dyslexia and use proven methods to improve reading.

Additionally, under Whitmer, the state has introduced PreK for All nearly three years ago to boost preschool enrollment for at-risk 4-year-olds, primarily via the long-established Great Start Readiness Program (GSRP).

Last month, the state released a report on academic outcomes for third graders who participated in early childhood education programs – a bellwether measurement that could help track how effectively the state is addressing literacy and preschool priorities.

However, the dataset was not open to the general public.

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In late January, Jim Hines, a spokesperson for the Center for Educational Performance and Information, that’s because some details would violate student privacy, and he pointed to public reports about state testing results and student growth as alternatives

Below are two major ways to track progress in Michigan schools based on the impact of literacy and preschool initiatives among the state’s littlest learners.

Proficiency in English-language arts has declined for youngest test-takers

To check reading skills, parents may be looking to track results in the state-administered M-STEP, or Michigan Student Test of Education Progress.

The earliest period students take the tests for English-language arts (ELA) is in the third grade, and the number of third graders testing proficient or advanced in ELA has marginally but consistently declined annually over the last five years.

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According to M-STEP results reviewed by MLive Media, the ELA proficiency rate during the 2020-21 school year, when fewer students were recorded as taking the test, was 42.8% for third-grade students.

By last year, the rate had fallen to 38.9%.

Third graders during the 2024-25 school year, if they progressed normally from grade to grade, would’ve been in pre-kindergarten during 2020-21.

Students who were in the third grade in 2021 have since shown much more inconsistent or varied ELA results on tests as they continue through each grade level.

According to the data, fourth- and fifth-grade students tested at higher proficiency rates of 43.3% and 43.9% during the 2021-22 and 2022-23 school years, respectively. Then, the rate fell to 37.5% and 39.2% for sixth- and seventh-grade students in 2023-24 and 2024-25.

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Other ways Whitmer’s budget proposal would support reading include $10.5 million to hire additional regional literacy coaches who assist teachers in developing instructional strategies for students from pre-K to fifth grade.

According to her office, this increase puts the total funding for literacy coaches at $52.5 million ― 420 coaches across the state, or 327 more since she took office.

Another $7.6 million would support literacy professional development for educators in all grade levels.

Does pre-K schooling keep kids in class later on?

Roughly 51,000 children statewide were enrolled in the GSRP as of last October as part of Michigan’s PreK for All push. That’s 9,000 more children than fall 2024, according to the Michigan Department of Lifelong Education, Advancement and Potential.

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Whitmer’s office aimed to raise pre-K to an estimated 68,000 children through GSRP next year. Her budget plan also proposes another $30 million to support early learning partnerships to add to the expansion of GRSP statewide.

Another way to track whether those early childhood (EC) or preschool programs are successful is if they keep kids in school as they progress through each grade level.

The state tracks absenteeism for students in kindergarten through third grade based on EC participation. Students who miss 10% or more of the year’s scheduled school days are generally considered “chronically absent” and may be listed under the “high absence rate.”

Over the last three years, the number of absentees considered high has varied at each grade level for students who did not participate in an early childhood program.

Students in all four grade levels that participated in EC programs showed improvement with marginal declines in the high rate of absences.

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However, those rates have remained higher overall than groups who weren’t EC participants and both groups combined.

Part of that may be because of how EC participation is reported.

Districts hosting EC options like Great Start Readiness Program, which has been widely promoted by the state as free preschool, and other hybrid programs are required to report participation.

Head Start and Early Head Start programs, which are federally funded, are not.



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