Michigan
Michigan vs. Illinois prediction: Week 8 CFB odds, picks, best bets
Michigan’s national title defense has been underwhelming this year and its 4-2 record is misleading.
The No. 24 Wolverines narrowly escaped against USC and Minnesota before losing to Washington.
Coming off a bye week, can coach Sheronne Moore right the ship with a road test against No. 22 Illinois?
We’ve seen a steady stream of Michigan money all week, moving this line from an opener of -1.5 for the Wolverines to the current -4.5.
Let’s dive in and see if there’s any value left in Saturday’s Big Ten matchup.
Michigan vs. Illinois odds
Team | Spread | Moneyline | Over/Under |
---|---|---|---|
Michigan | -4.5 (-108) | -185 | o44.5 (-108) |
Illinois | +4.5 (-112) | +154 | u44.5 (-112) |
When Michigan has the ball
Moore won’t admit it publicly, but I fully believe he intended to name Jack Tuttle his starting quarterback this season. An offseason elbow injury, however, threw a wrench into those plans, and we didn’t see Tuttle until the second quarter against Washington.
Tuttle had an interception and a fumble in the game but it was his first live reps in nearly a year, and he’s a better downfield passer than Alex Orji or Davis Warren.
With the benefit of a bye week to get up to speed in the offense, I expect Tuttle to play a much cleaner game this week. Tight end Colston Loveland’s return to full health after missing the USC game will also be pivotal.
However, I don’t expect Tuttle to need to do a ton in this game. The Wolverines will bully an Illini run defense that ranks 105th in defensive line yards. Expect Kalel Mullings and Donovan Edwards to churn out chunk yardage, keeping Tuttle out of obvious passing situations on third-and-long.
When Illinois has the ball
Luke Altmyer has had a strong season under center for the Illini, averaging 8.6 yards per attempt and passing for 14 touchdowns to one interception.
However, according to Pro Football Focus, the former Ole Miss transfer is due for some negative regression with nine big-time throws to nine turnover-worthy plays.
Altmyer has especially struggled under pressure, with an 8.4% turnover-worthy play rate. According to PFF, Michigan has the best pass rush unit in the country and Illinois ranks just 93rd in pass-blocking.
Elite defensive linemen Mason Graham, Kenneth Grant and Josaiah Stewart can take this game over on passing downs.
It will be difficult for the Illini to avoid those obvious passing situations, as Michigan ranks third in the country in rushing success rate allowed and Illinois ranks 105th in rushing success rate on offense.
When the Illini faced Penn State, a similarly elite run defense, their running backs finished with 17 carries for just 62 yards (3.6 YPC).
Michigan vs. Illinois pick
It has to be mentioned that Illinois almost lost to Purdue last week. The Illini escaped with a one-point win in overtime, but the Boilermakers had a 69% postgame win expectancy.
This was the same Purdue team that lost to Wisconsin by 46 points the week prior and had not played within 17 points of an FBS opponent all season.
Coming off a bye week with an opportunity to get its third starting quarterback of the year up to speed, this looks like a solid buy-low point for the Wolverines.
Betting on College Football?
Michigan’s defense is by far the best unit on the field in this game, and I’m banking on Wink Martindale’s group putting constant pressure on Altmyer, especially with Illinois’ struggling run game.
I’d be surprised if Michigan’s passing attack performed on average for the rest of the season. Still, it might not need to this week, given the considerable advantage the Wolverines should have in the run game.
I’m backing Michigan as a road favorite in this spot against an overrated Illinois team primed to fall back down to earth.
Best bet: Michigan -3.5 (-115, BetMGM)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Jacob Wayne handicaps college football and the NFL for the New York Post. He’s up 84.5 units across the two sports with a 6.27% ROI.
Michigan
Ex-Michigan running back fractures forearm in Rams’ regular-season finale
Sunday was supposed to be rookie Blake Corum’s chance to step into a featured role in the Los Angeles Rams backfield.
But the former Michigan running back didn’t get much of an opportunity, suffering a fractured forearm in the second quarter of a 30-25 loss to the Seattle Seahawks.
Rams head coach Sean McVay confirmed the injury after the game.
“He’s a tough, resilient guy,” McVay said. “He’s going to be a really good player for us for a long time, but he will miss the postseason.”
With the Rams having already clinched the NFC West crown entering Sunday, they rested No. 1 running back Kyren Williams, paving the way for Corum to handle a larger workload in the team’s regular-season finale.
Michigan’s all-time rushing touchdowns leader received just two carries for 10 yards and one catch for 12 yards before exiting. The 2024 third-round pick was on the sideline in the second half wearing a sling, finishing the year with 58 carries for 207 yards and seven receptions for 58 yards.
The Rams will host the loser of the Lions and Vikings’ Sunday night matchup in next week’s Wild Card round.
- BETTING: Check out our guide to the best Michigan sportsbooks, where our team of sports betting experts has reviewed the experience, payout speed, parlay options and quality of odds for multiple sportsbooks.
Michigan
Five Key Plays: Michigan 85, USC 74 | UM Hoops.com
Michigan knocked off USC in Los Angeles on Saturday night to move to 3-0 in the Big Ten. It was a game of runs, with Michigan stringing together three different 10-0 kill shots, but USC never went away. The Trojans consistently battled back into the game all night, forcing Michigan to execute down the stretch.
Here are Five Key Plays from the win featuring Danny Wolf, Vlad Goldin, Tre Donaldson, Roddy Gayle Jr., and more.
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1. First half 3-point barrage
Michigan was on fire from 3-point range in its final two home games of the year and carried that momentum into the Galen Center. On Saturday night, the Wolverines got off to a terrific shooting start, knocking down their first five 3-pointers and finishing with ten made threes in the opening half.
The Wolverines have been a volatile 3-point shooting team all year. They’ve hit double-digit threes in eight of 14 games but shot worse than 30% from three in five games. They shoot 36.6% from three (54th nationally) as a team but have shot better than 40% or worse than 30% in 12 of 14 contests.
In 28 halves of basketball, Michigan has hit seven or more threes nine times (32%). They’ve also hit two or fewer threes in 10 of those 28 halves (36%) — including last night’s 0-of-8 second-half performance.
Michigan’s half-by-half perimeter shooting splits are becoming a trend to watch closely. The Wolverines shoot 40.8% from three in first halves (5.9 for 14.4 attempts) compared to 31.2% in second halves (3.5 of 11.2 attempts).
Michigan survived 0-of-8 3-point shooting to win last night, but it is 5-of-36 (14%) from 3-point range in the second halves of its three losses — a particularly painful stat given that those defeats came by five points total.
Michigan
Michigan WR Peyton O'Leary will return for 2025 season: 'Last year incoming'
Michigan Wolverines football senior wide receiver Peyton O’Leary will return for his fifth season at U-M, he announced on social media Saturday. O’Leary has one year of eligibility remaining.
The 6-foot-3, 203-pounder joined senior quarterback Davis Warren in announcing his return for the 2025 season on the same day. Warren and O’Leary are housemates and close friends.
O’Leary and Warren are both former walk-ons who earned scholarships.
“It was a dream come true. It was so great,” O’Leary said in 2023 of being put on scholarship.
The Byfield, Mass., native played a key role on the Michigan offense this season, logging the second-most offensive snaps among wide receivers (376), behind only Tyler Morris (464), who has transferred to Indiana.
O’Leary caught 10 passes for 102 yards and 1 touchdown in 13 games this season. He was targeted 14 times.
The highlights of his season were a touchdown catch on third down in a loss to Oregon Nov. 2 and an impressive third-down grab in a 13-10 win over Ohio State in Columbus Nov. 30.
Tied 10-10, Michigan drove all the way to the Ohio State 3-yard line, before Warren threw an interception in the end zone.
Devastating, but not a deathblow. Michigan’s drive that Warren and O’Leary kept alive still chewed a whopping 9:10 off the clock. The Wolverines dominated time of possession, keeping the football for 13:03 of the 15 minutes in the fourth quarter, sealing the 13-10 win with a game-winning field goal by junior kicker Dominic Zvada.
Weeks later, Warren and O’Leary can laugh about all of it.
“We’ve watched it a couple times — a handful,” Warren said of he and his housemates, including O’Leary. “It always shows up on the YouTube and stuff, so it’s there.
“But can’t pump his tires up too much. Gotta keep him grounded. He’s kinda a pain to be around if he gets too confident.”
Warren and O’Leary have a special connection. Both came in as walk-ons and developed incredible chemistry while on scout team. That became apparent as the two worked their way up the depth chart, starting with the 2023 spring game, when Warren found O’Leary for the game-winning two-point conversion.
“Love him to death, and that was a huge catch when we needed it,” Warren said of the play against Ohio State, in a more serious tone. “I remember the first time me and him were throwing together on the field out there the summer my freshman year, and [tight ends] Coach [Steve] Casula, who recruited us, was kinda watching off to the side.
“To think that it would progress to us being in The ‘Shoe trying to get a win like that, it was a special thing and a testament to him to all the work he’s put in to get better.
“Hitting the celebration after was a nice touch.”
O’Leary was a deep reserve before the 2024 season. He had appeared in 14 games at wide receiver from 2022-23, hauling in 3 catches for 17 yards and a touchdown. His score in the 2023 campaign came in a win at Nebraska and was thrown by Jayden Denegal, who transferred to San Diego State this offseason.
O’Leary was originally signed to play lacrosse at UMass
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