Billikens coach Josh Schertz called the Wolverines the best team in the country.
Michigan’s Morez Johnson Jr. on 101-80 win over Howard in NCAA opener
Morez Johnson Jr. scored 21 points with 10 rebounds in 101-80 victory over Howard in Buffalo.
Buffalo, N.Y. — It’s no secret that stretch bigs have given Michigan problems this season.
And it’s no secret that Saint Louis runs a five-out offense with one of the premier shooting big men in the country in Robbie Avila, who sports goggles and has an endless supply of color nicknames.
When push comes to shove in Saturday’s NCAA Tournament second-round matchup at KeyBank Center, the battle between the centers could be at the center of determining who secures a spot in the Sweet 16.
“We’ve learned that against pick-and-pop bigs, if you allow a direct pass, they’re going to shoot about 25% to 30% better. If they make one or two, you need to be prepared to go to your contingency plans quicker than usual,” Michigan coach Dusty May said. “We’ve played this defensive philosophy for several years, so we know what can beat it on a given night. We know what the holes in the defense are. But it’s just like everything else, there’s a give and take.
“We’ve got to be OK giving up what we’re going to give up. And if we feel like that’s not going to put us in a position to win, we’ve got to be adaptable enough to pivot and change it on the fly. But that’s kind of where each game is a little bit different. You take all this information and try to predict what’s going to happen, and sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn’t.”
More: Michigan vs. Saint Louis scouting report, prediction for March Madness second round
The 6-foot-10 Avila — who has monikers like “Cream Abdul-Jabbar,” “Larry Nerd” and “Milk Chamberlain” — has been a long-range threat throughout his college career, from his time at Indiana State to his two seasons at Saint Louis.
But he’s as dangerous as ever as a trailer and pick-and-pop option, knocking down a career-best 63 3-pointers at a career-high 41.7% clip. That, according to May, has added “a whole other element” to his game and certainly has Michigan’s attention.
It also creates defensive predicament for the Wolverines, with big man Aday Mara, the Big Ten’s Defensive Player of the Year and top shot blocker, possibly being pulled away from the rim at times against a Saint Louis team that was cutting and getting to the rim at will in its 102-77 obliteration of Georgia in the first round.
“I think I can guard outside, too,” Mara said. “It’s going to be a tough matchup, because how talented he is, he can do everything. I just got to be ready for everything.
“I like the way he plays, because he reminds me a little bit of me. I think we have similar style of game. I like to see another big being able to create and pass the ball. It’s fun to watch him.”
Maybe not as fun to defend him, though. Forward Morez Johnson Jr. has experience with that, crossing paths with Avila as the two grew up in the same area in Illinois.
“I’ve been knowing Robbie forever. Robbie can pretty much do everything,” Johnson said. “But I think we’ve played a lot of good frontcourt players.”
Stretch bigs gave Michigan’s defense fits in both games against Wisconsin. In the first meeting, the Wolverines played the percentages and didn’t guard 6-10 forward Aleksas Bieliauskas out on the 3-point line. They ended up paying a price.
Bieliauskas, who entered that matchup shooting 29.6% from deep (8-for-27) and with one 3-pointer in the previous five games, burned Michigan with a season-high five 3-pointers. Combined with 6-11 forward Nolan Winter, a 30.2% 3-point shooter on the season at that point, the two made nine of Wisconsin’s 15 3-pointers in an upset and handed Michigan its only Big Ten loss during the regular season.
In the rematch between the teams in the Big Ten tournament semifinals, Wisconsin’s bigs once again were a thorn in Michigan’s side. Bieliauskas hit three 3-pointers, but this time it was 6-10 Austin Rapp who went nuclear. Rapp tied his career high with six 3s, all coming in the final 9:26 and many of those coming on drive and kicks.
There were several lessons to take from those experiences. May, for starters, said Michigan needs to do a better job of challenging passes, being prepared to rotate or switch depending on the game plan, and disrupting the opponent’s timing and rhythm.
Forward Yaxel Lendeborg cited giving Mara more help when he’s in off-ball defense and fanning out when he’s on ball to force the ball handler away from the middle of the court.
Forward Will Tschetter, Johnson and Mara all pointed to the importance of guarding the ball and not giving Saint Louis — a team that ranks in the top 10 in both 2-point shooting and 3-point shooting, with five players shooting at least 40% from 3-point range — any advantages on dribble drives.
“After you overhelp, there’s going to be players wide open for 3,” Mara said. “I think if we do a better one-on-one defense, that is not going to happen. I’m not going to need to maybe help the rim, so they’re not going to find those wide-open shooters. By doing that and being quicker when they get the ball to be there with one hand up, those things are very important.”
It all has the makings for an intriguing chess match between Saint Louis coach Josh Schertz and May, who are close friends that talk weekly and often share ideas.
Schertz called the Wolverines the best team in the country, with their elite talent, their ability to hurt teams in different ways on offense and their knack to make things hard for opponents defensively.
Michigan has a unique team with its frontcourt size across the board. Saint Louis is unique because its offense revolves around Avila rather than a traditional point guard.
The key question is who is going to guard Avila?
“Is it Mara, is it Johnson, is it Yax? Where do they put Mara?” Schertz said. “The thing with Robbie is he can find mismatches and he does a good job of triggering a layering offense. His ability to provide spacing, he’s obviously an incredible shooter and passer. He’ll be a focal point for us, regardless. He always is.
“I think (Avila’s) ability to provide horizontal spacing, take bigs away from the basket, opens up driving and cutting lanes, and we’ll need all of that. … We’ll need the best version of him and everybody else against Michigan.”
The same could be said for the Wolverines, who will need to be on top of their game defensively and find an answer to a problem they’ve struggled with at times.
“(Avila) is like the hub. Everything runs through him,” guard Nimari Burnett said. “At the same time, they all play well off each other. He’s a big part of what they do, and we look forward to the challenge.”
NCAA Tournament
NO. 1 SEED MICHIGAN VS. NO. 9 SEED SAINT LOUIS
▶ What: Second-round NCAA Tournament game
▶ When: Saturday, 12:10 p.m.
▶ Where: KeyBank Arena, Buffalo, New York
▶ TV: CBS
▶ Records: Michigan 32-3, Saint Louis 29-5
jhawkins@detroitnews.com
@jamesbhawkins