This weekend brings us a meeting between ranked Big Ten rivals, one looking to earn its first conference win and another hoping to win a second league game, as No. 19 Illinois goes on the road to Happy Valley against No. 9 Penn State in college football’s Week 5 action on Saturday night. 

Illinois already boasts a road victory against a ranked Big Ten opponent after taking down Nebraska last week and defeating a then-ranked Kansas team a few weeks ago.

Penn State is perfect through 3 games and is coming off a 56-0 domination against Kent State, embarking on the first of an expected three Big Ten games against ranked opponents this season.

What can we expect in the matchup this weekend?

Let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Penn State and Illinois compare in this Big Ten football game under the lights.

As expected, the simulations are siding more with the home team this weekend.

SP+ predicts that Penn State will defeat Illinois by a projected score of 33 to 15 and will win the game by an expected 18.6 points.

The model gives the Nittany Lions a strong 88 percent chance of outright victory in the game.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 105-91-1 against the spread with a 53.6 win percentage.

Penn State is a 17.5 point favorite against Illinois, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the moneyline odds for Penn State -1200 and for Illinois at +720 to win outright.

And the book set the total at 47.5 points for the game.

If you’re using this projection to bet on the game, you should take …

Other analytical models also favor the Nittany Lions to take down the Fighting Illini.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Penn State is projected to win the game in the majority 86.3 percent of the computer’s updated simulations.

That leaves Illinois as the expected winner in the remaining 13.7 percent of sims.

Penn State is projected to be 16.9 points better than Illinois on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

Penn State is second among Big Ten teams with a 59.2 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and will win 10.2 games this season, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives Illinois a 9.1 percent shot at the playoff and a win projection of 8 games.

When: Sat., Sept. 28
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET | 6:30 p.m. CT
TV: NBC network

More … Penn State vs. Illinois prediction: What the analytics say

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BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – Perhaps more than any other position in football, wide receiver is one that is fueled by ego.

The stereotypical wide receiver wants the ball. He demands the ball. He lets his quarterback know, he lets his coordinator know, he lets his head coach know he’s the guy to move the sticks.

If a team has a talented receiver, he can take them far. One need only look at Maryland, Indiana’s  opponent on Saturday.

Terrapin wide receiver Tai Felton gets the ball in ways most receivers would dream of. He has 41 catches for 604 yards and 5 touchdown catches. Per game, that works out to 10.25 catches, 151 yards and 1.25 touchdowns per game. That makes Felton one of the most productive receivers in all of college football.

Accepting that we don’t know about Felton’s ego or how much he demands the ball, his level of production would be the envy of any receiver motivated by such things.

Meanwhile, Indiana does things differently.

In contrast to Maryland, where Felton accounts for 37.2% of the Terrapins’ total receptions, Indiana spreads the wealth.

Elijah Sarratt leads the Hoosiers with 15 receptions, but three other receivers – Myles Price (14), Omar Cooper Jr. (12), Miles Cross (12) – are right behind Sarratt. Two more – Ke’Shawn Williams (8) and tight end Zach Horton (7) have also been frequent targets.

No one Indiana receiver accounts for more than 19.4% of the Hoosiers’ reception total. It’s receiver-by-committee, just as the running backs operate under the same principle of sharing the ball.

It only works if you have buy-in from a position group where the individual players often demand the ball. So far, Indiana has been able to achieve that goal.

“It’s not as difficult when you’re about the team and you want the team to be successful,” Williams said. “We have a group of guys in our room who are extremely talented. Anybody that’s on that field can go out there and start and make plays.”

Price, who came to Indiana after four seasons at Texas Tech, said putting his ego aside isn’t a problem.

“It’s about winning. Everyone wants to win. When you win, everyone gets looked at,” said Price, who peaked at 51 receptions while he was with the Red Raiders.

So suppression of ego for the good of the team can also be good for the individual? Price thinks so.

“You look at those teams that go on to win championships. They have 15-20 players that may get drafted and that’s just because they’re winning,” Price explained. “So it’s bringing more attention, it’s bringing more eyes. That’s how we look at it.”

Williams said he’s used to the dynamic of sharing the ball. He played regularly at Wake Forest from 2021-23. Williams never had less than 27 catches in any of those seasons, but he never ranked higher than third on the Demon Deacons in receptions.

“If you’ve watched over my career, I’ve been in crowded receiving rooms since I’ve been in college. I’ve been surrounded by great receivers,” Williams said.

For Williams, who is a fifth-year receiver getting his last chance to prove himself, he admitted it can be tough to be in sharing mode.

“Being a fifth-year guy, it’s definitely challenging,” Williams admitted. “You know, if I don’t go about it the right way, I only do nothing but hurt myself and hurt the team. Me doing the right thing while waiting for my turn allowed me to be successful and help the team win games once I got out there.”

Price, who led Texas Tech with 43 catches in 2023, believes the high tide of team success raises all boats in the end.

“We just continue to win. If it’s in God’s plan (for individual success), it’s in his plan. So I just kind of let that work itself out,” Price said.

As the Kansas Jayhawks prepare to host the TCU Horned Frogs at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium this Saturday, both teams are seeking their first Big 12 victory of the season.

Here’s what you need to know ahead of the matchup.

1.) Recent Performance and Team Dynamics

Kansas enters the game with a record of 1-3 (0-1 in the Big 12) after a heart-wrenching 32-28 loss to West Virginia, where they demonstrated a strong running attack, racking up 247 yards. Senior running back Devin Neal and redshirt junior Daniel Hishaw Jr. played key roles in the offense.

TCU, on the other hand, sits at 2-2 (0-1 in the Big 12) following a significant 66-42 defeat to SMU, despite a huge performance from sophomore quarterback Josh Hoover, who threw for 396 yards and three touchdowns.

This contest marks the first meeting between the two teams since October 2022, when TCU narrowly defeated Kansas.

2.) Defensive Strategies and Challenges

Defensively, both squads have faced challenges recently. Kansas’ defensive coordinator, Brian Borland, has highlighted the talent of TCU’s offense, particularly their effective wide receivers.

Meanwhile, TCU’s defense has struggled against the run, allowing over 260 rushing yards in their last two games.

Kansas offensive coordinator Jeff Grimes has indicated that they will look to exploit this weakness, emphasizing a strategy focused on a strong ground game to gain the upper hand against TCU’s defense.

3.) Rivalry and Historical Context

This game will mark the 40th encounter between the Jayhawks and Horned Frogs, with TCU leading the series 26-9-4.

The Horned Frogs have dominated recent matchups, winning the last four meetings, with Kansas’ last victory against TCU occurring on October 27, 2018.

Additionally, this matchup holds historical significance as it will be the Jayhawks’ first game at Arrowhead Stadium since 2011.

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