A notable late-season Big 12 matchup kicks off this weekend as No. 22 Iowa State goes on the road against Utah. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the game from an expert analytical football model that projects scores and picks winners.

Iowa State sits in a two-way tie for third-place in the Big 12 standings after a two-game losing skid that came to an end last weekend, but the Cyclones need help getting to the league title game.

Utah was the preseason favorite to win the Big 12 Championship Game, but slid to just 1-6 in conference play and is on a six-game losing streak, not having won since late September, against Oklahoma State, the other worst team in the league this season.

What do the analytical models suggest for when the Cyclones and Utes square off in this Big 12 matchup?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Iowa State and Utah compare in this Week 13 college football game.

As expected, the models are siding with the Cyclones against the Utes, but by a close margin.

SP+ predicts that Iowa State will defeat Utah by a projected score of 24 to 20 and to win the game by an expected margin of 4.1 points in the process.

The model gives the Cyclones a solid 60 percent chance of outright victory against the Utes.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 315-293-8 against the spread with a 51.8 win percentage after going 23-30 (43.4%) last weekend.

Iowa State is a 7.5 point favorite against Utah, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook for the game.

FanDuel lists the total at 41.5 points for the game (Over -110, Under -110).

And it set the moneyline odds for Iowa State at -280 and for Utah at +225 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take …

If you do, you’ll be in the company of a minority of bettors, most of whom expect the Cyclones to dominate the Utes, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Iowa State is getting 62 percent of bets to win the game and cover the spread in the process.

The other 38 percent of wagers project Utah will either win outright in an upset or keep the game under 8 points in a loss.

Most other analytical football models also favor the Cyclones against the Utes this weekend.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Iowa State is the favorite in the game, coming out ahead in the majority 63.2 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Utah as the presumptive winner in the other 36.8 percent of sims for the game.

How does that translate to an expected margin of victory in the matchup?

Iowa State is projected to be 4.8 points better than Utah on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

Iowa State is fourth among Big 12 teams with a 9.5 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model forecasts the Cyclones will win 9.3 games this season.

Colorado (34.3%) leads the Big 12 in the playoff race, according to the index projections, followed by BYU (31.1%) and Arizona State (13.5%).

Utah has two games left to become bowl eligible, but the index doesn’t foresee that happening.

FPI projects the Utes will win 4.7 games and have an 11.9 percent chance to make a bowl game.

When: Sat., Nov. 23
Where: Salt Lake City, Utah

Time: 6:30 p.m. CT | 5:30 p.m. MT
TV: Fox network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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We have reached Week 13 in the college football season, which means the pressure intensifies and the need for wins is amplified. 

This week there are several featured attractions around the Big 12 Conference. Those includes BYU looking to rebound at red-hot Arizona State while Kansas tries to knock off a third straight ranked opponent when they welcome Colorado to Kansas City.

Arizona and TCU kick things off early Saturday afternoon with BYU-Arizona State, Colorado-Kansas, Texas Tech-Oklahoma State and UCF-West Virginia starting 30 minutes later. 

The night window includes Baylor at Houston, Iowa State at Utah and Cincinnati at Kansas State.

The mid-afternoon window of games will give those interested in how the conference turns out some key answers. BYU (9-1, 6-1) and Colorado (8-2, 6-1) have it pretty simple: win the next two games and you are in for the title game in December with a berth in the College Football Playoff on the line.

The Cougars, though, are coming off a disappointing loss at home to Kansas. Now, they have to play quite possibly the hottest team in the conference in Arizona State (8-2, 5-2), who has climbed all the way back to contention. 

Led by Cam Skattebo and Sam Leavitt, the Sun Devils have won three in a row and five of is around a road loss to Cincinnati. They close with in-state rival Arizona next week. 

Colorado will try to do what Iowa State and BYU couldn’t the last two weeks in solving Jayden Daniels and Kansas (4-5, 3-4), who are fighting for bowl eligibility themselves. Heisman Trophy frontrunner Travis Hunter and Shedeur Sanders have won four straight for head coach Deion Sanders. 

* Matt Campbell talks up the Utah defense

* Cyclones right back into contention in wild, wild Big 12

*Three stars in Iowa State’s win over Cincinnati including Stevo Klotz

*Complete game recap of Iowa State’s win over Cincinnati

* Scouting the opponent: Get to know QB Brendan Sorsby

* Latest college football playoff rankings

* What Cincinnati coach Scott Satterfield had to say about Cyclones