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Iowa vs. Iowa State score prediction by expert college football model

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Iowa vs. Iowa State score prediction by expert college football model


Three of the last four wins the Iowa State Cyclones have picked up in the Cy-Hawk Trophy series have come on the road, and they’ll look for a fourth in five tries against the No. 21 Iowa Hawkeyes in college football’s Week 2 action on Saturday.

The rivalry is split the last two seasons, and the Hawkeyes are coming off a 20-13 victory over the Cyclones in last year’s game, while Iowa State won a 10-7 decision the year before. Otherwise, Iowa has dominated in the last decade, winning 8 of the last 10 meetings.

Iowa’s infamously unproductive offense took what appeared to be an important step forward in this season’s opener, posting a 40-0 victory over Illinois State in which quarterback Cade McNamara passed for 251 yards and threw three touchdown passes, and the Hawkeye ground game amassed 241 yards and averaged 6 yards per carry while Kaleb Johnson scored twice.

Iowa State handled North Dakota in a 21-3 win last week, as quarterback Rocco Becht threw two touchdown passes and ran for a third, but the Cyclones’ rushing attack finished with just 86 yards while back Abu Sama ran 5 times for 36 yards.

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What can we expect in the matchup? For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of what to watch as Iowa and Iowa State re-new the Cy-Hawk Trophy series on Saturday.

The simulations favor the Hawkeyes to pull out a close win over the Cyclones this week.

SP+ predicts that Iowa will defeat Iowa State by a projected score of 21 to 14 and to win the game by an expected 7.8 points.

The model gives the Hawkeyes a 69 percent chance of outright victory.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

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Iowa is a 3 point favorite against Iowa State, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook, which set the total at 35.5 points for the game.

FanDuel lists the moneyline odds for Iowa at -162 and for Iowa State +134.

If you’re using this projection to bet on the game, you should take…

Other analytic tools suggest the Hawkeyes will take down the Cyclones this week.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

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Iowa is projected to win the game in 71.8 percent of the computer’s calculations, while Iowa State comes out the expected winner in the remaining 28.2 percent of sims.

The model projects Iowa will be 6.5 points better than Iowa State on the same field in both teams’ current composition, enough to cover the spread.

Iowa will win 7.7 games this season, according to the index, which projects the team has a 2.4 percent chance to win the Big Ten championship.

The model projects Iowa State will win 6.2 games this year and has a 1.5 percent shot to win the Big 12 championship.

When: Sat., Sept. 7
Time: 2:30 p.m. Central
TV: CBS network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams

Follow College Football HQ: Bookmark | Rankings | Picks

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Man sentenced for killing 4 people appeals his sentence to the Iowa Supreme Court

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Man sentenced for killing 4 people appeals his sentence to the Iowa Supreme Court


CEDAR RAPIDS, Iowa (KCRG) – Luke Truesdell’s attorney has filed as of Sunday to appeal his sentence to the Iowa Supreme Court.

Truesdell was sentenced last week to three consecutive life sentences plus 50 years for the deaths of four people killed in rural Linn County.

A jury convicted Luke Truesdell, 36, in November on the first-degree murder of Brent Brown, 34; his girlfriend, Keonna Ryan, 26, of Cedar Rapids; and Amanda Parker, 33, of Vinton. They also found him guilty of second-degree murder in the death of Romondus Cooper, 44, of Cedar Rapids.

His attorneys previously argued multiple reasons for a retrial that could potentially be brought up again.

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They said that one juror was overheard talking about news on the case.

They also said the prosecutors inflamed the jury, rather than focusing on the facts.

His lawyers said there is no direct evidence that Truesdell committed the murders.

Truesdell’s defense also pointed to Truesdell’s father, Larry Tuesdell, who was found covered in blood at the scene but never fully investigated. Authorities have not been able to locate Larry.

The state disagreed, citing overwhelming evidence including DNA on the murder weapon, eyewitness testimony and video of Truesdell entering the garage where the four people were found dead.

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2026 Iowa high school boys basketball state tournament brackets, schedule

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2026 Iowa high school boys basketball state tournament brackets, schedule


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The Iowa high school boys state basketball tournament is just around the corner and the full field has now been set.

By March 13, four teams will be crowned state champions and there are plenty of worthy squads vying for the title. On Tuesday, the final brackets were released and we now have a clear picture of the eight teams in each class hoping to take home the trophy.

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Here’s a look at the first-round pairings and the full state tournament schedule for next week’s IHSAA action.

Class 4A Iowa boys state basketball tournament schedule

State quarterfinals, Monday, March 9

  • No. 4 Dowling Catholic vs No. 5 Dubuque Senior, 5:30 p.m.
  • No. 1 Cedar Falls vs No. 8 Urbandale, 7:15 p.m.

Tuesday, March 10

  • No. 3 Waukee Northwest vs. No. 6 Johnston, 10:30 a.m.
  • No. 2 Waukee vs No. 7 Cedar Rapids Prairie, 12:15 p.m.

State semifinals, Thursday, March 12

  • TBD vs. TBD, 10:30 a.m.
  • TBD vs. TBD, 12:15 a.m.

State championship game, Friday, March 13

Class 3A Iowa boys state basketball tournament schedule

State quarterfinals: Monday, March 9

  • No. 1 Ballard vs. No. 8 Gilbert, 10:30 a.m.
  • No. 4 Pella vs. No. 5 Carroll, 12:15 p.m.
  • No. 2 ADM vs. No. 7 Xavier, 2 p.m.
  • No. 3 Storm Lake vs. No. 6 Solon, 3:45 p.m.

State semifinals, Wednesday, March 11

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  • TBD vs. TBD, 5:30 p.m.
  • TBD vs. TBD, 7:15 p.m.

State championship game, Friday, March 13

Class 2A Iowa boys state basketball tournament schedule

State quarterfinals: Wednesday, March 11

  • No. 1 Kuemper Catholic vs. No. 8 Union Community, 10:30 a.m
  • No. 4 Treynor vs. No. 5 Grundy Center, 12:15 p.m
  • No. 2 Unity Christian vs. No. 7 Western Christian, 2 p.m.
  • No. 3 Regina Catholic vs. No. 6 Aplington-Parkersburg, 3:45 p.m.

State semifinals, Thursday, March 12

  • TBD vs. TBD, 5:30 p.m.
  • TBD vs TBD, 7:15 p.m.

State title game, Friday, March 13

Class 1A Iowa boys state basketball tournament schedule

State quarterfinals: Tuesday, March 10

  • No. 1 St. Edmond vs. No. 8 Woodbine, 2 p.m.
  • No. 4 Notre Dame vs. No. 5 Bellevue, 3:45 p.m.
  • No. 2 MMCRU vs. No. 7 Boyden-Hull, 5:30 p.m.
  • No. 3 Bishop Garrigan vs. No. 6 Marquette Catholic, 7:15 p.m.

State semifinals, Thursday, March 12

  • TBD vs TBD, 2 p.m.
  • TBD vs TBD, 3:45 p.m.

State title game, Friday, March 13



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Iowa State announces gymnastics program will be discontinued

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Iowa State announces gymnastics program will be discontinued


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Iowa State University announced March 3 that it is cutting its women’s gymnastics program, weeks after abruptly canceling the remainder of the season due to what athletics director Jamie Pollard said were “unreconcilable differences” in the program.

Cyclone gymnasts were informed of the decision to cut the program by ISU associate athletics director Shamaree Brown in a meeting on Tuesday morning, two people with direct knowledge of the situation told USA TODAY Sports Network.

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Iowa State gymnastics head coach Ashley Miles Greig and her three assistant coaches were told that their contracts would not be renewed, the university’s news release stated. Miles Greig’s contract was set to expire after the season on June 30, 2026.

Cyclones gymnasts will have the option to remain at Iowa State to finish their degrees, or to transfer to another NCAA school to compete in gymnastics. If they stay at Iowa State, ISU will honor their scholarships. Iowa State’s release said its compliance department would work with the NCAA on waivers to help gymnasts receive an additional year of competition.

Tuesday’s announcement ended weeks of speculation about the program’s future that began when Iowa State canceled its gymnastics season on Feb. 8. In a statement at the time, Brown said the decision was because the Cyclones did not have enough athletes available to compete. In a letter to the gymnastics team and alumni on Feb. 17, Pollard wrote that the cancellation resulted from “a series of complex internal conflicts between individual teammates, coaching staff members, and parents,” language that Iowa State repeated in Tuesday’s release.

In a video released by the school, Pollard said Iowa State would take the next several months to decide which women’s sport would replace gymnastics so that the athletics department remains compliant with Title IX, a federal law that requires NCAA schools to provide proportional participation opportunities to men and women.

“I also want to say, this is not a financial decision. This is a student-athlete experience decision,” Pollard said in the video. “Adding another women’s sport will probably cost equal or more than what we’re already spending on the gymnastics program. This is about student-athlete experience.” 

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Pollard said that Iowa State conducted reviews of its gymnastics program in 2018 and 2023 stemming from unspecified issues. The 2023 review, conducted by an external law firm, led Iowa State to part ways with then-head coach Jay Ronayne. Miles Greig was hired in April 2023.

On Tuesday, Iowa State denied USA TODAY Sports Network’s public-records request for the findings of the university’s 2018 and 2023 gymnastics probes. In an email denying the request, Ann Lelis, a member of Iowa State’s office of general counsel, cited portions of state open records law that prevent the disclosure of personal information of students or public employees. Lelis also said the requested records were not subject to disclosure because they contained confidential attorney privileged documents.

In the video, Pollard said he asked his senior leadership team “to meet with those individuals in our department that work really closely with our gymnastics program and make a recommendation to me about what we should do going forward.”

The leadership team recommended to Pollard that the school discontinue the gymnastics program, Pollard said, and use those resources for a different women’s sport. Pollard accepted the recommendation from his staff, and he spoke with university leaders. “We are all on the same page,” he said. “This is the right decision for our athletics program and for our student-athletes.”

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Cyclone gymnast Samantha Schneider, a redshirt freshman, wrote in an Instagram post on Tuesday that she was heartbroken by the decision and criticized Iowa State’s administration for deflecting blame onto the gymnasts.

“Terrible that this is the result of the lack of support from Iowa State’s Athletic Administration,” Schneider wrote. “For the last 5 months, we have come forward as a team regarding (certain) situations and environment concerns and nothing has been done to protect us as athletes on this team. The gymnasts should NOT be blamed or be sharing any part of the responsibility for this decision being made.”

A former member of this season’s coaching staff also mourned the decision in a text message to USA TODAY Sports Network on Tuesday. The person requested anonymity for fear of repercussions.

“At the end of the day this is unfair to the athletes and the alumni that have built this program and have continued to ask for better,” the coach wrote. “It appears that the department was looking for an easy way out or an easy solution, not realizing they would hurt a lot of people in the process. My only hope is that the athletes can come back stronger than ever.”

Miles Greig could not be immediately reached for comment when contacted Tuesday morning by USA TODAY Sports Network.

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The Iowa State gymnastics team participated in four competitions this season before the athletics department shut down the remainder of the season on Feb. 8. Nick Joos, Iowa State’s senior associate athletic director for communications, told USA TODAY Sports Network at the time that the cancellation was due to a “combination of injuries and other health issues.”

During what ended up as Iowa State’s final meet against Denver on Feb. 1, several Cyclone gymnasts fell off the uneven bars. The Cyclones forfeited their next meet on Feb. 6 against West Virginia, with Miles Greig saying in a statement, “At this time, we do not have enough student-athletes available to safely field a team against West Virginia, and regrettably must cancel this competition.”

Two days after that, Brown met with gymnasts on Feb. 8 at Iowa State’s on-campus practice gym and informed them that their season would not continue.

Iowa State’s annual financial report submitted to the NCAA for fiscal year 2025 showed the gymnastics program generated $287,392 in total operating revenues with $1.69 million in expenses, a gap of about $1.4 million. Iowa State allotted 14 scholarships to gymnastics. Football and men’s basketball are the only Iowa State sports in which revenue exceeds spending.

Cyclone gymnastics recruits who had committed to the program for the 2026-27 season can commit to a different school or attend Iowa State and have their scholarship agreements honored.

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Former Iowa State gymnast Shea Mattingly, whose last name was Anderson when she graduated in 2012, said she had been in contact with other former members of the team after Tuesday’s announcement.

“We’re all frustrated. We’re all angry,” Mattingly said. “That (Pollard) video made us all really mad, honestly. … It places all the blame on these student-athletes whereas the administration’s accountability in this, they hired these coaches that maybe it seems like they couldn’t handle the program.”

Mattingly said she and other alums aren’t giving up hope on the future of the program.

“I think we’re still going to fight,” she said. “So we’re going to send emails. We’re going to call. We’re going to do all we can, even though it seems his mind has been made up.”



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