Iowa
Iowa vs. Iowa State score prediction by expert college football model
Three of the last four wins the Iowa State Cyclones have picked up in the Cy-Hawk Trophy series have come on the road, and they’ll look for a fourth in five tries against the No. 21 Iowa Hawkeyes in college football’s Week 2 action on Saturday.
The rivalry is split the last two seasons, and the Hawkeyes are coming off a 20-13 victory over the Cyclones in last year’s game, while Iowa State won a 10-7 decision the year before. Otherwise, Iowa has dominated in the last decade, winning 8 of the last 10 meetings.
Iowa’s infamously unproductive offense took what appeared to be an important step forward in this season’s opener, posting a 40-0 victory over Illinois State in which quarterback Cade McNamara passed for 251 yards and threw three touchdown passes, and the Hawkeye ground game amassed 241 yards and averaged 6 yards per carry while Kaleb Johnson scored twice.
Iowa State handled North Dakota in a 21-3 win last week, as quarterback Rocco Becht threw two touchdown passes and ran for a third, but the Cyclones’ rushing attack finished with just 86 yards while back Abu Sama ran 5 times for 36 yards.
What can we expect in the matchup? For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of what to watch as Iowa and Iowa State re-new the Cy-Hawk Trophy series on Saturday.
The simulations favor the Hawkeyes to pull out a close win over the Cyclones this week.
SP+ predicts that Iowa will defeat Iowa State by a projected score of 21 to 14 and to win the game by an expected 7.8 points.
The model gives the Hawkeyes a 69 percent chance of outright victory.
SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”
Iowa is a 3 point favorite against Iowa State, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook, which set the total at 35.5 points for the game.
FanDuel lists the moneyline odds for Iowa at -162 and for Iowa State +134.
If you’re using this projection to bet on the game, you should take…
Other analytic tools suggest the Hawkeyes will take down the Cyclones this week.
That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.
Iowa is projected to win the game in 71.8 percent of the computer’s calculations, while Iowa State comes out the expected winner in the remaining 28.2 percent of sims.
The model projects Iowa will be 6.5 points better than Iowa State on the same field in both teams’ current composition, enough to cover the spread.
Iowa will win 7.7 games this season, according to the index, which projects the team has a 2.4 percent chance to win the Big Ten championship.
The model projects Iowa State will win 6.2 games this year and has a 1.5 percent shot to win the Big 12 championship.
When: Sat., Sept. 7
Time: 2:30 p.m. Central
TV: CBS network
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Iowa
Waukee Northwest beats Urbandale in Iowa boys soccer state semifinal
Tate Schendel on Waukee Northwest boys soccer’s win over Urbandale
Hear from Waukee Northwest goalkeeper Tate Schendel after the Wolves beat Urbandale in the Class 4A boys soccer state semifinals.
It took two overtimes and six penalty kicks to decide a winner in Waukee Northwest’s Iowa high school boys soccer state quarterfinal matchup against Johnston on Monday.
And it looked like the semifinal would go the same way, that is, until Eman Alicic came up big on a penalty kick in the final minutes of the No. 2 Wolves’ state semifinal game against No. 3 Urbandale on Wednesday, June 3.
“It was too long of a game last time,” joked Northwest goaltender Tate Schendel postgame. “From now on, we’re just going to try to close things out, get it done and keep moving on.”
It took more than 10 minutes for either team to record a shot, and even longer for an attempt to go on goal.
The Wolves hammered a dozen shots in the direction of Urbandale’s goal in the opening 40 minutes, but only a couple came close to going in – including a shot from Alicic that bounced out after hitting the corner of the crossbar.
The J-Hawks had fewer chances at the net, but more attempts hit the target. Of Urbandale’s seven first-half chances, four were on goal – and Schendel stopped all of them.
With one defense keeping shots on goal away from their keeper and the other team’s goalie stepping up to make risky saves, Northwest and Urbandale headed to the locker room tied, 0-0, at halftime.
“He’s been with us now for three years as a starter, and each year he’s come up big and done great things,” Waukee Northwest head coach Carlos Acebey said about Schendel. “I don’t think he gets a lot of credit for how well he plays between the goalposts, and he’s a solid player for us.”
The Wolves took control in the second half, firing off 12 more shots – including seven on goal – to Urbandale’s three shots, only one of which made its way into Schendel’s hands. But despite Northwest’s ability to keep much of the pressure on the J-Hawks’ end of the field, the game remained scoreless deep into the second half.
With just under four minutes remaining in regulation, Eddie Mihura won the ball around midfield, and then Alicic sent a cross-field pass that was misplayed by one of Urbandale’s players and made its way to Sully Ervin.
He took the ball downfield on a breakaway, but didn’t get a chance at the net, as a J-Hawks player took him down in the box, resulting in a penalty kick.
“He’s just a little buzz saw,” Acebey said about Ervin. “He creates a lot of problems just because he’s annoying, but he’s a great annoying for us. I love it.”
Alicic – the sophomore star and leading goal scorer on Northwest’s roster – lined up for the penalty kick and nailed it, sending the ball left as Urbandale’s goalie dove to the right.
“He’s really wiser than people give him credit for,” Acebey said. “He’s a sophomore, but he’s very intelligent. His soccer IQ is off the charts. He’s a player that gives us a lot of confidence…and the last three teams that we played have tried to double team, triple team him, and he still is going to get the ball.”
The J-Hawks attempted to get another chance at a goal in the final minutes of the game, but Northwest had an answer for everything Urbandale tried. The final horn bellowed, and the Wolves celebrated their first trip to the championship game since the program’s inaugural season in 2022.
Northwest will face off against No. 1 Ankeny Centennial – still undefeated – at 2:30 p.m. on June 5 at Mediacom Stadium.
Alyssa Hertel is the college sports recruiting reporter for the Des Moines Register. Contact Alyssa at ahertel@dmreg.com or on Twitter @AlyssaHertel.
Iowa
Trump's primary endorsement winning streak just ended in Iowa
Iowa
Zach Lahn projected to win Iowa GOP governor primary, upsetting Trump’s pick in a state Democrats hope to flip
Zach Lahn will win the Republican primary for Iowa governor, CBS News projects, overcoming a Trump-backed congressman and setting up a November contest against Democrat Rob Sand that could be one of this year’s most competitive gubernatorial races.
Lahn — a farmer and businessman who has touted his ties to the “Make America Healthy Again” movement — prevailed over a crowded GOP field on Tuesday. Sand, who serves as state auditor, ran for the Democratic nomination unopposed.
His victory bucks the recent winning streak of Trump-backed candidates and marks an upset over Rep. Randy Feenstra, who didn’t attend any primary debates and was viewed by many observers as a frontrunner. President Trump endorsed Feenstra last week, calling him “MAGA all the way,” and several top Iowa GOP figures backed him.
Feenstra conceded late Tuesday night, saying in a speech surrounded by his family that the outcome “wasn’t what I wanted.”
Describing himself as a sixth-generation Iowan, Lahn owns a family farm and runs the agriculture, real estate and technology investment firm Homeplace Ventures. He previously worked for the conservative group Americans for Prosperity. He’s running on a populist-inflected platform that he branded “Iowa First” and has said he wants to boost local ownership of farmland, stem the flow of younger Iowans out of the state and address Iowa’s high cancer rate.
“I fear every day we are losing the Iowa we love,” Lahn said in his victory speech Tuesday, castigating out-of-state investors that he says “treat Iowa land like it’s a commodity instead of our inheritance.”
Lahn was endorsed last year by MAHA Action, a group founded by allies of Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and he picked up support from the late Charlie Kirk’s Turning Point Action last week. He was also endorsed by former Rep. Steve King, who was known for incendiary comments about race before Feenstra ousted him in a 2020 primary.
Three other candidates also ran: former Iowa Department of Administrative Services Director Adam Steen, state Rep. Eddie Andrews and former state Rep. Brad Sherman.
Lahn will now face Sand, a two-term state auditor who defeated a GOP incumbent in 2018 after working in the state attorney general’s office.
Sand has focused his campaign on government accountability and faulted Republicans for the state’s economic issues, while pitching universal pre-K and criticizing a school voucher program introduced by GOP officials. He has also sought to cultivate a moderate image on social issues, as Republicans try to cast him as a liberal in centrist’s clothing.
In a campaign video late Tuesday, Sand said Republican voters are “welcome in this campaign,” adding that the state’s political system is “broken” and “all you would get with Zach Lahn it is more of the same.”
Once considered a swing state, Iowa has trended sharply red in recent years as Democrats increasingly struggle on rural Midwestern terrain. Mr. Trump won the state three times in a row, including by a 13-point margin in 2024, and GOP Gov. Kim Reynolds won reelection by 18 points four years ago. Iowa hasn’t elected a Democratic governor in two decades, and Sand is the only statewide elected Democrat, after he won reelection by fewer than 3,000 votes in 2022.
But Democrats are hopeful that a challenging political environment for Republicans, both nationally and in Iowa, could make them more competitive in the midwestern state. The Cook Political Report has rated the Iowa gubernatorial race a tossup, one of five states with that distinction this year, and the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics says the race leans red.
Reynolds — who has led the state since 2017 — has one of the lowest approval ratings of any governor nationwide. Iowa farmers also struggled last year after the trade war with China caused Beijing to cut American soybean imports, pushing down prices of one of Iowa’s most widely grown crops, and the war with Iran has caused a run-up in fuel and fertilizer prices.
Reynolds declined to run for reelection this year, setting up Iowa’s first gubernatorial election without an incumbent in the race since 2006.
Lahn lent his campaign $2 million last year, but is heading into the general election at a fundraising disadvantage. His campaign had just over $700,000 on hand as of mid-May, compared to nearly $18.3 million for the Sand campaign. Sand’s wife runs a sizable food and health products company founded by her family called the Lauridsen Group, and the Democrat’s campaign coffers have been bolstered by millions in contributions from his in-laws.
Sand raised about $9.7 million between the start of the year and mid-May, just over $3 million of which came from members of his wife’s family. Lahn raised just under $1 million.
Beyond the governor’s race, Iowa also has an open Senate contest after Ernst declined to seek reelection, drawing interest from Democrats, though Republicans likely have a sizable edge. Democrats are also heavily targeting two of Iowa’s four House seats, including the 1st District, where incumbent GOP Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks won by fewer than 1,000 votes in 2024.
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