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Iowa vs. Iowa State score prediction by expert college football model

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Iowa vs. Iowa State score prediction by expert college football model


Three of the last four wins the Iowa State Cyclones have picked up in the Cy-Hawk Trophy series have come on the road, and they’ll look for a fourth in five tries against the No. 21 Iowa Hawkeyes in college football’s Week 2 action on Saturday.

The rivalry is split the last two seasons, and the Hawkeyes are coming off a 20-13 victory over the Cyclones in last year’s game, while Iowa State won a 10-7 decision the year before. Otherwise, Iowa has dominated in the last decade, winning 8 of the last 10 meetings.

Iowa’s infamously unproductive offense took what appeared to be an important step forward in this season’s opener, posting a 40-0 victory over Illinois State in which quarterback Cade McNamara passed for 251 yards and threw three touchdown passes, and the Hawkeye ground game amassed 241 yards and averaged 6 yards per carry while Kaleb Johnson scored twice.

Iowa State handled North Dakota in a 21-3 win last week, as quarterback Rocco Becht threw two touchdown passes and ran for a third, but the Cyclones’ rushing attack finished with just 86 yards while back Abu Sama ran 5 times for 36 yards.

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What can we expect in the matchup? For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of what to watch as Iowa and Iowa State re-new the Cy-Hawk Trophy series on Saturday.

The simulations favor the Hawkeyes to pull out a close win over the Cyclones this week.

SP+ predicts that Iowa will defeat Iowa State by a projected score of 21 to 14 and to win the game by an expected 7.8 points.

The model gives the Hawkeyes a 69 percent chance of outright victory.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

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Iowa is a 3 point favorite against Iowa State, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook, which set the total at 35.5 points for the game.

FanDuel lists the moneyline odds for Iowa at -162 and for Iowa State +134.

If you’re using this projection to bet on the game, you should take…

Other analytic tools suggest the Hawkeyes will take down the Cyclones this week.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

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Iowa is projected to win the game in 71.8 percent of the computer’s calculations, while Iowa State comes out the expected winner in the remaining 28.2 percent of sims.

The model projects Iowa will be 6.5 points better than Iowa State on the same field in both teams’ current composition, enough to cover the spread.

Iowa will win 7.7 games this season, according to the index, which projects the team has a 2.4 percent chance to win the Big Ten championship.

The model projects Iowa State will win 6.2 games this year and has a 1.5 percent shot to win the Big 12 championship.

When: Sat., Sept. 7
Time: 2:30 p.m. Central
TV: CBS network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams

Follow College Football HQ: Bookmark | Rankings | Picks

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US House Speaker campaigning in Iowa responds to President’s election fraud claims

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US House Speaker campaigning in Iowa responds to President’s election fraud claims


DES MOINES, Iowa (Gray Media Iowa State Capitol Bureau) — U.S. Speaker of the House Mike Johnson told Gray Media Iowa that he got briefed late Thursday afternoon, a few hours before President Donald Trump gave a prime-time speech to make his latest claims about election fraud.

“Yeah, I just got off of a telephone call literally in the motorcade as we were driving here,” Johnson said after arriving at a campaign appearance with U.S. Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R – 1st District, Ottumwa) at a Pella bakery.

Miller-Meeks is running for re-election in what is again considered a competitive race with Democrat Christina Bohannan, a University of Iowa law professor from Iowa City.

This is the third straight election that the two will meet in a general election.

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Johnson said the “off the record” intelligence briefing to leaders in the U.S. House and Senate previewed Trump’s new election fraud claims. He called it “blockbuster information.”

“It’s the result of an investigation that’s been ongoing for some time now about fraud and irregularity in in federal elections, American elections around the country,” Johnson said.

Gray Media Iowa asked Johnson whether he believes congressional colleagues were elected because of fraud.

He did not directly answer that question.

“…everybody’s going to be able to evaluate all that information on their own, and it will lead to other investigations, I’m certain,” Johnson said of the briefing.

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He added, “we’ll have to see where all this goes.”

For years, Trump has alleged widespread fraud that cost him the 2020 election. Trump has lost dozens of court cases on the matter.

On January 7, 2021, Congress certified his defeat to Democrat Joe Biden, a day after Trump supporters rushed the U.S. Capitol Building. Some attacked law enforcement officers and damaged the outside and inside of the building.

After returning to office in 2025, President Trump pardoned supporters for their crimes.

Copyright 2026 Gray Media Iowa State Capitol Bureau. All rights reserved.

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Jaylen Raynor Wisely Predicted To Be Starting Quarterback for Iowa State Football

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Jaylen Raynor Wisely Predicted To Be Starting Quarterback for Iowa State Football


With the college football season right around the corner, the Iowa State Cyclones will be hoping to have a strong campaign with a new regime coming in. However, a lot of their success might depend on one key player. 

Following the departure of Matt Campbell to the Penn State Nittany Lions, the Cyclones saw their roster get completely gutted. Most of their players entered the transfer portal, leaving new head coach Jimmy Rogers with plenty of work to do. 

Fortunately, Rogers and the coaching staff were able to get out there and bring in a lot of new players from all over the country. While Iowa State might be lacking star power and aren’t going to be as talented as they were last year, they do have a good amount of depth. 

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There should be quite a bit of competition for spots in camp, but there are some players who should clearly be starters that transferred in. 

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Pete Nakos of On3 recently predicted who would be the starting quarterback for every team in the Big 12. Unsurprisingly for the Cyclones, it was Jaylen Raynor who was the choice. 

Raynor an Easy Pick 

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Jul 8, 2026; Frisco, TX, USA; Iowa State quarterback Jaylen Raynor speaks with reporters during Big 12 Conference Football Media Days at The Star. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

After bringing in the three-year starter from the Arkansas State Red Wolves, Raynor instantly became the favorite to be the starter for the Cyclones in Week 1. Him being predicted as that guy should come as no surprise, and his ability to play against elevated competition on a weekly basis will be key. 

There is a lot to like about Raynor’s game, and he could certainly help Iowa State exceed expectations next year. 

Last season with the Red Wolves, he totaled 3,361 passing yards, 19 passing touchdowns, and a 66.5 completion percentage. It was career-highs for him in all three of those categories, showing some nice improvement in his junior season. 

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As a dual-threat player, he also totaled a career-high in rushing yards and rushing touchdowns. The junior recorded 423 yards on the ground to go along with seven rushing scores. 

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Overall, the numbers for Raynor were really solid, and there is reason to believe he might be even better in his senior season. For the Cyclones, with all of the new players on the roster, there will undoubtedly be some competition for starting spots around the field. However, it should certainly be Raynor who is under center to start.

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Weight loss drug needles creating safety risk for eastern Iowa law enforcement

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Weight loss drug needles creating safety risk for eastern Iowa law enforcement


CEDAR RAPIDS, Iowa (KCRG) – Syringes from injectable weight loss medications are turning up in drug drop-off boxes across eastern Iowa, creating a safety hazard for law enforcement officers who handle the containers.

Sgt. Erich Lear of the Linn County Sheriff’s Office said emptying the drug drop-off box is part of his daily routine — and the box fills fast.

“It’s probably a 30-gallon tote, and I’d say 3 out of the five days of the week it’s completely full,” Lear said.

Needles found mixed in with other medications

Lear said he has noticed over the past five years that people are placing medicine, nasal sprays and syringes in the bin. He said many of the syringes come from people discarding GLP-1 medications such as Ozempic and Wegovy.

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“That tote that I pull out — there’s nothing that protects me from needles other than my observation and using gloves when I sort through things,” Lear said.

The Hiawatha Police Department said it is also seeing an increase in improperly discarded syringes.

Where syringes should go

The Cedar Rapids Linn County Solid Waste Agency is the proper disposal site for sharps. The agency said it has seen syringe intake increase by more than a ton in recent years.

“We’re talking about two thousand pounds of sharps and syringes coming in,” said Joe Horaney of the solid waste agency. “Before 2021 we were around 1.9, maybe 2 tons a year — now we are over 3 tons a year.”

Horaney said any Linn County resident can bring syringes to the facility, provided they are contained properly.

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“We just ask that you have it in a heavy plastic container — so one of those medically certified red biohazard containers,” Horaney said. “If you don’t have that, it can be a heavy plastic container like an old laundry detergent [bottle].”

A third-party company picks up the sharps from the facility and incinerates them.

Some drop-off programs discontinued

Lear said another reason sharps are appearing at drop-off locations is that some agencies have ended their disposal programs. The Marion Police Department said it stopped offering the service after people continued to place broken glass, liquids and other garbage inside the box.

Copyright 2026 KCRG. All rights reserved.



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