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6 days to kickoff: 6 bold predictions for the Iowa Hawkeyes in 2023

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6 days to kickoff: 6 bold predictions for the Iowa Hawkeyes in 2023


It is game week. For the first time in over nine months, it is time to get ready for the Iowa Hawkeyes to strap up their helmets and play a game inside Kinnick Stadium. The buzz around this team is palpable this year and there is a sense of urgency for Iowa to perform with the immensely talented roster they have. The schedule is set up nicely, the Big Ten realignment hasn’t occurred yet, and this is Iowa’s chance to show something.

To perform at those levels and live up to their expectations, it is going to take some primetime efforts from primetime players. Each year a few select individuals step up, some units come together when it matters most, and teams find a way to win.

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With the 2023 college football season just six days away for the Hawkeyes, the countdown is truly on now. As we approach kickoff, today looks into six bold predictions for the Iowa Hawkeyes in 2023.

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6

Nick Jackson will be the Hawkeyes’ leading tackler

Joseph Cress/Iowa City Press-Citizen / USA TODAY NETWORK

Nick Jackson is a tackling machine. The former Virginia Cavalier totaled 354 tackles, 20 tackles for loss, and 10.5 sacks. He has had 100 or more tackles each of the last three years, which included 117 in 2021 when he led the entire ACC in tackles. He joins a Hawkeye front seven that is among the best in football and likely better than any he has played with before. Jackson could surpass 120 tackles.

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5

Xavier Nwankpa will lead Iowa in interceptions

Andrew Nelles/USA TODAY NETWORK / USA TODAY NETWORK

This year is Xavier Nwankpa’s time to shine. Flashing in the bowl game last year with a pick-six, Iowa saw the talent he has. Cooper DeJean is not taking a step back by any means in losing this crown. Rather, he won’t get thrown at due to how good he is. Nwankpa gets the opportunities and takes advantage. His athleticism could top DeJean’s five interceptions last year.

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4

Deacon Hill starts and wins a game for Iowa

Syndication: HawkCentral

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This is no knock on Cade McNamara at all. In fact, I have more on him later. Let’s get that out there in front of everything. It is simply a look into the reality of the situation. There will be a game this year where Deacon Hill is called upon to step in for Iowa. Sure, the game plan will change, but with Iowa’s weapons on offense and defense, Hill will get the win. This is one of the better quarterback rooms Iowa has had in a while and Hill inspires confidence if and when his number is called.

3

Kaleb Johnson rushes for 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns

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Syndication: HawkCentral

After setting the freshman record with 779 yards in 2022 and finding the end zone six times, Kaleb Johnson proved he could handle the workload. In 2023, Iowa will give him the keys as the top back and he delivers. In my opinion, he is possibly Iowa’s biggest talent and key to success on offense. Johnson gets to 1,000 yards and finds 10 trips to the end zone behind a revamped offensive line in a statement season for the young back.

2

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Cade McNamara completes 60% of his passes

Syndication: HawkCentral

A stat that isn’t bold on the surface, but when you dive in, gets a bit more intriguing. C.J. Beathard in 2015 was the last time an Iowa starting quarterback completed at least 60% of his passes. The Hawkeyes went 12-2 that year with an 8-0 Big Ten record. If McNamara can complete the easy passes and sustain drives, this year could feel reminiscent of 2015.

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1

Iowa’s offense averages 27 points per game, defense allows under 14

(Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images)

Let’s start with the defense. Last year, the Hawkeyes gave up just 13.3 points per game and they were on the field an excessive amount of time. With an offense that should be better, this defense gets more rest and has an even better group up front and a more experienced secondary. Phil Parker repeats last year and doesn’t allow an average of two scores per game.

Offensively, Iowa has more talent. The tight ends are stacked. The ground game can only go up. And the quarterback play should be upgraded. After a 17.7 points per game showing in 2022, the Hawkeyes rebound. In the last decade, Iowa has averaged more than 27 points five times. They hit that number once again.

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Iowa

Pick ‘Ems: Iowa-Maryland, Iowa State-Utah, Indiana-Ohio State

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Pick ‘Ems: Iowa-Maryland, Iowa State-Utah, Indiana-Ohio State


There is a 4-way tie atop our season standings between John Steppe, Jeff Johnson, Rob Gray and Beth Malicki

Indiana celebrates after defeating Michigan in an NCAA college football game in Bloomington, Ind., Saturday, Nov. 9, 2024. (AP Photo/AJ Mast)
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The Gazette offers audio versions of articles using Instaread. Some words may be mispronounced.

The Gazette’s Pick ‘Ems for Week 13 of the college football season including long road trips for Iowa and Iowa State and the top-five showdown between Indiana and Ohio State.

Iowa (6-4, 4-3 Big Ten) at Maryland (4-6, 1-6)

11 a.m. Saturday (BTN)

Line: Iowa -6.5

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Mike Hlas (2-1, 24-12) — Iowa’s No. 3 quarterback for this game is a Maryland blue crab. Iowa 24, Maryland 14

John Steppe (2-1, 26-10) — My editors are excited for a deadline-friendly 11 a.m. start. I’m just excited to use Washington’s outstanding Metro system. Iowa 20, Maryland 13

Jeff Johnson (3-0, 26-10) — Hey, Coach Ferentz. I’ve got some eligibility remaining if you need a quarterback. I specialize in the Tush Push. Maryland 21, Iowa 17

Rob Gray (3-0, 26-10) — Can the return of Cade McNamara save the Hawkeyes’ season? Maybe. But can the “clouds” settle and put Jackson Stratton into the starting spot? It appears possible. Iowa 14, Maryland 10

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Beth Malicki (3-0, 26-10) — I’m hosting Thanksgiving and don’t want anyone to bring their own darn food. This isn’t a potluck. This is my chance to show off and stress out. Iowa 20, Maryland 17

Todd Brommelkamp (3-0, 25-11) — Maryland has a single B1G win (by just one point) and gives up almost 30 points a game yet somehow Iowa’s final road trip of the year has become very unnerving. Iowa 28, Maryland 19

No. 22 Iowa State (8-2, 5-2 Big 12) at Utah (4-6, 1-6)

6:30 p.m. Saturday (Fox)

Line: Iowa State -7.5

Hlas — Once I was in a bar in the old Denver airport waiting to catch a flight to Salt Lake City. Someone dropped a quarter in a jukebox and played a Hall and Oates record. At that moment, the most amazing thing happened to all of us there. (Continued on Page 13C). Utah 21, Iowa State 20

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Steppe — Utah has more national parks than college football wins this year. Iowa State 23, Utah 20

Johnson — “Is it possible the two Utes …” “The two what?” “What?” “Did you say two Utes?” “Yeah, two Utes.” “What is a Ute?” “Oh, excuse me, your honor. Two youths.” Iowa State 28, Utah 10

Gray — If the Cyclones can stop the run, a path to 9-2 swiftly materializes. If they can’t, this is a four-quarter game. Iowa State 27, Utah 17

Malicki — Why am I wearing a splint on each wrist when I sleep? Self-induced carpal tunnel from robust cleaning. Iowa State 31, Utah 24

Brommelkamp — Utah’s controversial loss in the Holy War two weeks ago was the final straw in a lost season for Kyle Whittingham’s team. Make it seven straight setbacks for the Utes. Iowa State 25, Utah 21

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No. 5 Indiana (10-0, 7-0 Big Ten) at No. 2 Ohio State (9-1, 6-1)

11 a.m. Saturday (Fox)

Line: Ohio State -12

Hlas — This is the biggest Indiana football game of our lives, then we have turkey dinner five days later. So delay that move to New Zealand for another week. Ohio State 35, Indiana 28

Steppe — My mother is an Indiana grad. I hope she does her Christmas shopping for me before reading this pick. Ohio State 41, Indiana 31

Johnson — Indiana is a great story, but let’s get real. Hoosiers have played exactly ONE team with a winning record, and that’s Washington, which is a mere 6-5. Ohio State 31, Indiana 14

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Gray — Heck, let’s blow it all up. Bluebloods be damned. Er, wait. On second thought … Ohio State 27, Indiana 14

Malicki — I cannot wait for all three of my adult kids to come home so I can be so overwhelmed with delight I can’t sleep so in all the pictures I have “crazy eyes.” Ohio State 34, Indiana 23

Brommelkamp — It’s clear ESPN and the CFP aren’t fans of Curt Cignetti’s upstarts. I am. The Hoosiers will (hopefully) make this a game and prove their many doubters wrong. Ohio State 31, Indiana 24





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Decatur County duo arrested after alleged robbery in Iowa Wednesday, police say

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Decatur County duo arrested after alleged robbery in Iowa Wednesday, police say


WEST DES MOINES, Ia. (WCTV) – Two people from Decatur County were arrested in Iowa Wednesday, and face charges related to an alleged robbery, according to a press release from the West Des Moines Police Department.

Daniel Mathes of Bainbridge is charged with robbery in the second degree and theft in the first degree. Lisa Haire of Climax is charged with aiding and abetting robbery in the second degree and aiding and abetting theft in the first degree.

Daniel Mathes and Lisa Haire, pictured above in their mugshots.(West Des Moines Police Department)

Late Wednesday afternoon, police responded to a call of a robbery at a bank, according to authorities. No one was injured, and police determined Mathes and Haire suspects related to the incident, police say.

They were later pulled over by Iowa State Patrol on I-80, and arrested without incident, according to authorities.

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Iowa State vs. Utah score prediction by expert football model

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Iowa State vs. Utah score prediction by expert football model


A notable late-season Big 12 matchup kicks off this weekend as No. 22 Iowa State goes on the road against Utah. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the game from an expert analytical football model that projects scores and picks winners.

Iowa State sits in a two-way tie for third-place in the Big 12 standings after a two-game losing skid that came to an end last weekend, but the Cyclones need help getting to the league title game.

Utah was the preseason favorite to win the Big 12 Championship Game, but slid to just 1-6 in conference play and is on a six-game losing streak, not having won since late September, against Oklahoma State, the other worst team in the league this season.

What do the analytical models suggest for when the Cyclones and Utes square off in this Big 12 matchup?

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For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Iowa State and Utah compare in this Week 13 college football game.

As expected, the models are siding with the Cyclones against the Utes, but by a close margin.

SP+ predicts that Iowa State will defeat Utah by a projected score of 24 to 20 and to win the game by an expected margin of 4.1 points in the process.

The model gives the Cyclones a solid 60 percent chance of outright victory against the Utes.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

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How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 315-293-8 against the spread with a 51.8 win percentage after going 23-30 (43.4%) last weekend.

Iowa State is a 7.5 point favorite against Utah, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook for the game.

FanDuel lists the total at 41.5 points for the game (Over -110, Under -110).

And it set the moneyline odds for Iowa State at -280 and for Utah at +225 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take …

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If you do, you’ll be in the company of a minority of bettors, most of whom expect the Cyclones to dominate the Utes, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Iowa State is getting 62 percent of bets to win the game and cover the spread in the process.

The other 38 percent of wagers project Utah will either win outright in an upset or keep the game under 8 points in a loss.

Most other analytical football models also favor the Cyclones against the Utes this weekend.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

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Iowa State is the favorite in the game, coming out ahead in the majority 63.2 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Utah as the presumptive winner in the other 36.8 percent of sims for the game.

How does that translate to an expected margin of victory in the matchup?

Iowa State is projected to be 4.8 points better than Utah on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

Iowa State is fourth among Big 12 teams with a 9.5 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.

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That model forecasts the Cyclones will win 9.3 games this season.

Colorado (34.3%) leads the Big 12 in the playoff race, according to the index projections, followed by BYU (31.1%) and Arizona State (13.5%).

Utah has two games left to become bowl eligible, but the index doesn’t foresee that happening.

FPI projects the Utes will win 4.7 games and have an 11.9 percent chance to make a bowl game.

When: Sat., Nov. 23
Where: Salt Lake City, Utah

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Time: 6:30 p.m. CT | 5:30 p.m. MT
TV: Fox network

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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