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Iowa poll shows Democrats in position to flip 2 GOP House seats

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Iowa poll shows Democrats in position to flip 2 GOP House seats

Democrats are in a position to possibly flip two of Iowa’s four House seats, according to a new poll. 

The state’s four House seats are currently controlled by Republicans. 

Democrats have the upper hand in the 1st and 3rd Congressional Districts, while Republicans remain ahead among voters in the 2nd and 4th Districts, according to a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll. 

In the 1st Congressional District, 53% of respondents said they preferred the Democratic candidate, while 37% said they would vote or have already voted for the Republican. 

Democratic challenger Christina Bohannan, therefore, has a 16-point lead over Republican incumbent Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks in their 2022 rematch contest. 

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Miller-Meeks secured victory over Bohannan by nearly 7 percentage points in 2022. 

“This race was always going to be competitive,” Miller-Meeks campaign spokesman Tyler Menzler said in a statement. “In 2020, Mariannette Miller-Meeks won by 6 votes and in 2022, she won by 7 points.” 

“Just like yesterday, the final Selzer poll greatly defies the reality on the ground,” Menzler said. “And not even the Democrats are buying it. On Tuesday, Mariannette Miller-Meeks will win the only poll that matters and be re-elected.”

Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks, R-Iowa, speaks during a House Committee on Veterans’ Affairs subcommittee hearing on Capitol Hill on Feb. 5, 2024.  (MANDEL NGAN/AFP via Getty Images)

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The Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows 48% of voters in the third congressional district prefer the Democratic candidate, while 41% said they voted or will vote for the Republican. Democratic challenger Lanon Baccam has a 7-point lead ahead of Republican incumbent Rep. Zach Nunn. 

“We are confident Representatives Zach Nunn and Mariannette Miller-Meeks will win because they have delivered strong results for their communities,” National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) spokesman Mike Marinella told Fox News Digital. “This poll is a clear outlier, as voters are well aware that career political activist Lanon Baccam and radical liberal Christina Bohannan are too out of touch for Iowa.” 

Nunn leaves GOP caucus meeting

Rep. Zach Nunn, R- Iowa, speaks to members of the press as he exits a Republican Caucus meeting in Washington, D.C., on Thursday, Oct. 12, 2023.  (Anna Rose Layden/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) had a different perspective on the poll. 

“It’s been clear Iowans are ready for change since the day Christina and Lanon launched their campaigns; that’s why they have broken fundraising records, outraised their opponents every single quarter, and consistently led in polls,” a DCCC spokesperson told Fox News Digital. “Iowans know Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Zach Nunn are out of step with Iowans, pushing an anti-abortion agenda and siding with their party bosses and special interest donors instead of helping middle class families get ahead.”

In the 2nd Congressional District, 45% of respondents prefer the Republican, while 42% prefer the Democrat. Republican U.S. Rep. Ashley Hinson has a three-point lead over Democrat Sarah Corkery. 

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ALASKA, IOWA, MONTANA, 7 OTHER STATES END EARLY IN-PERSON VOTING ON MONDAY

Republican incumbent Rep. Randy Feenstra wields a 16-point lead over Democratic challenger Ryan Melton. The poll found 53% of voters support the Republican in the 4th Congressional District, while 37% of voters support the Democratic candidate. 

Hinson at House GOP retreat

Rep. Ashley Hinson, R-Iowa, speaks on “Putting American families first” at the Greenbrier Hotel on March 14, 2024, in White Sulphur Springs, West Virginia.  (Alex Wong/Getty Images)

The polling represents the first time since September 2020 that Democrats have the advantage statewide on the congressional ballot. In the last poll in September, Republicans were favored statewide, 52% to 44%. Since then, Iowa voters have shifted toward Democrats. The Democrat in the 1st congressional district had a 3-point lead in September, while the Republicans had the advantage in the three other races then. 

Feenstra during committee

Rep. Randy Feenstra, R-Iowa, questions Office of Management and Budget Director Shalanda Young on March 29, 2022, in Washington, D.C.  (Rod Lamkey – Pool/Getty Images)

The new poll was conducted from Oct. 28-31 and sampled 808 likely Iowa voters. That included people who had voted already or who told pollsters they would definitely vote. 

 

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Its margin of error statewide was plus or minus 3.4 percentage points, and for congressional districts, was a maximum of plus or minus 7.2 percentage points. 

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Illinois

Early results show Democrats likely to maintain supermajorities in Illinois General Assembly | Capitol News Illinois

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Early results show Democrats likely to maintain supermajorities in Illinois General Assembly | Capitol News Illinois


Preliminary, unofficial election results show no seats in the state House or Senate have changed party hands, although a few races remained too close to call according to the Associated Press.

That means Democrats will maintain supermajorities in each chamber of the General Assembly even as President Donald Trump appears to have vastly outperformed his previous two showings in the state in 2016 and 2020.

The AP called the presidential race for Trump early Wednesday, and with an estimated 93% of votes counted, he trailed Vice President Kamala Harris in Illinois by about eight percentage points. If the total holds, it’s about half of the margin of victory enjoyed by Democrats in the state in each of the past four presidential cycles.

Illinois’ representation in Congress also appears unlikely to change. Democratic U.S. Rep. Eric Sorensen withstood a challenge in the 17th Congressional District of northwest Illinois, beating Republican challenger Joe McGraw, 54% to 46%, meaning Democrats will keep their 14-3 advantage in the state’s congressional delegation.

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“Now, it’s about coming together to do what’s best for all of us and I am proud to be the good neighbor to represent you,” Sorensen said in a statement late Tuesday night. “We have a lot of challenges and hard work ahead of us, but I can tell you the sun will rise tomorrow morning and our forecast is bright.”

And in Cook County, early returns showed Democrats poised to sweep all county-level offices that were up for election, including state’s attorney, while voters in Chicago cast ballots in their first-ever elections for local school board seats.

 

General Assembly

As of early Wednesday, unofficial results showed Democrats were poised to likely keep their 78-40 supermajority in the Illinois House and their 40-19 control of the Senate, although a few races proved to be highly competitive.

That was true in the 52nd House district, where incumbent Republican Rep. Martin McLaughlin, of Barrington Hills, was leading Democratic challenger Maria Peterson, 51% to 49%, a margin of fewer than 1,000 votes.

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And in the 47th House District, incumbent Republican Rep. Amy Grant, of Wheaton, was leading Democrat Jackie Williamson, 50.4% to 49.6%, a margin of just 500 votes.

Another uncalled race is in the 76th District that includes parts of DeKalb, LaSalle and Bureau counties. Democrat Amy Briel led Republican Liz Bishop by less than 700 votes in the race to succeed retiring Democrat Lance Yednock.

The race was also too close to call for a pair of incumbents – 91st District Rep. Sharon Chung, D-Bloomington, and 104th District Rep. Brandun Schweizer, R-Danville, in two central Illinois races. As of Wednesday morning, the AP hadn’t tallied all the votes in Champaign or McLean counties. A Capitol News Illinois analysis 91st District data showed Chung handily winning that race by about 3,500 votes, while Schweizer had a lead of 771 votes in the 104th District with some mail votes outstanding.

In the 112th District in the Metro East area outside St. Louis, Democratic Rep. Katie Stuart, of Edwardsville, was leading Republican challenger Jay Keeven, also of Edwardsville, 54% to 46%.

That district was at the center of a debate during the spring legislative session when Democrats pushed through a bill to ban the practice of political parties “slating” candidates for a race after a primary election if no candidate from that party ran for the nomination.

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That bill passed the General Assembly in May, even though candidates from both parties, including Keeven, were already actively gathering petition signatures to fill vacant ballot positions.

The Illinois Supreme Court eventually ruled that law couldn’t go into effect in 2024, allowing Keeven to remain on the  ballot.

And in the neighboring 114th District, former Democratic Rep. LaToya Greenwood, of East St. Louis, appeared far behind in her attempt to retake the seat she lost following redistricting in 2022 to Republican Rep. Kevin Schmidt. Unofficial returns from that rematch showed Schmidt holding onto lead of less than 2,000 votes with 78% of votes counted. Although the AP had not called the race as of Wednesday, Schmidt issued a news release claiming victory.

 

Statewide and local referendums

Three statewide “advisory questions” all passed on Tuesday, although they don’t carry any legal weight.

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The first question concerned whether candidates should be subject to civil penalties if they interfere with election workers’ official duties. That passed with 88.9% of respondents voting ‘yes’ with an estimated 89% of votes counted.

The second asked voters whether Illinois should modify its constitution to allow for higher taxes on those with incomes over $1 million to pay for property tax relief programs. With an estimated 89% of votes counted, ‘yes’ had carried about 60.3% of the vote.

The third asked whether the state should require insurers that cover pregnancy benefits to also cover assisted reproductive treatments like in vitro fertilization. ‘Yes’ received 72.4% of the vote with 89% of votes counted.

Downstate, seven counties asked voters to consider whether they should explore separating from Cook County to form a new state, with all seven voting in favor of similarly phrased referendums.

This result means that 33 counties so far have voted in favor of exploring separation, just under one-third of Illinois’ 102 counties. In total, about 10.9% of Illinois’ population has voted on this issue, with every county where the question appeared on the ballot voting in favor of separation.

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Madison County, which held a referendum on Tuesday, was the closest referendum yet – passing with 56.5% of the vote. The other six counties that voted on Tuesday ranged from about 71% to 77% voting in favor.

 

Chicago-area races

Chicagoans voted – for the first time – for elected school board members. Ten seats were up for grabs this election and the fiercely fought races brought out millions of dollars in spending from candidates and political committees.

As of Wednesday morning, three races were still too close to call. Of the seven where a winner is clear, three went to candidates backed by the Chicago Teachers Union. Three seats were won by candidates endorsed by either the charter school group INCS Action, a political action committee associated with the conservative Illinois Policy Institute or both. The final candidate wasn’t endorsed by any of those groups.

Recent decisions from leaders in Chicago Public Schools have raised questions about what actions the state might have to take in response. Some state Democrats began publicly considering looking at the level of state oversight at CPS following the resignation of its entire board last month amid tensions with Mayor Brandon Johnson and the CTU.

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The election itself follows a fight among state-level Democrats earlier this year that saw competing proposals and a monthslong debate surrounding ethics rules for the reformed board and a timeline on when to hold the board’s first elections.

Other Cook County offices that were up for election were swept by Democrats, including county clerk, circuit court clerk and state’s attorney. Retired judge Eileen O’Neill Burke defeated Republican Bob Fioretti, a former Chicago alderperson, in a closely watched race to replace outgoing State’s Attorney Kim Foxx.

The outgoing prosecutor drew national attention for her progressive policies and her office’s handling of the 2019 Jussie Smollett case.

 

Capitol News Illinois is a nonprofit, nonpartisan news service that distributes state government coverage to hundreds of news outlets statewide. It is funded primarily by the Illinois Press Foundation and the Robert R. McCormick Foundation.

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Indiana

Trump dominated Indiana. Where did he perform better, worse here than in 2020?

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Trump dominated Indiana. Where did he perform better, worse here than in 2020?


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Republican President-elect Donald Trump’s decisive victory over Democrat Kamala Harris in Indiana was not a surprise on Election Day; the race was called for the former president right as all Indiana polls were closed.

Not only did he delivery a victory, getting 58.9% of the vote to Harris’ 39.4%, he also performed better in Indiana than he did in the previous two election cycles, according to the unofficial results.

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Trump’s vote share this year was 19.5 percentage points higher than Harris’. In 2020, Trump defeated President Joe Biden here by 16 points. And in 2016, Trump defeated Hillary Clinton here by 19 points.

In both of those elections, Trump won between 56.5% and 57% of the vote. This year, he performed two points better than that.

Trump dominated Indiana in 2024 by winning 88 of Indiana’s 92 counties, with Harris winning just Marion, Monroe, Lake and St. Joseph counties.

In 2020 he won one fewer county here: Tippecanoe County, which comprises Lafayette and West Lafayette. Tippecanoe County flipped back to Trump this year, albeit narrowly. Trump got 49.2% of the vote there to Harris’ 48.9%. Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who dropped out of the race, and Libertarian Chase Oliver each got about 1% in that county.

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Though some Indiana Democrats hoped to chip into Trump’s vote share in suburban Hamilton County, that didn’t happen in a substantial way. Trump performed similarly in suburban Indianapolis this year to his 2020 showing, though Harris did just over a half-point better there than Biden.

This year, Trump won Hamilton County by 52.1% to Harris’ 46%, with RFK Jr. and Oliver each getting about 1%.

Where did Trump do better than in 2020?

Along with Tippecanoe County flipping for Trump, most of the state saw shifts to the right that contributed to Trump’s continued dominance here.

Lake County, which includes Gary, was nearly 10 points more Republican than in 2020, according to an analysis by the New York Times. Biden won Lake County by more than 33,000 votes in 2020. Harris won Lake County by just 11,775 votes this election.

LaPorte County also swung right by more than 7 points, according to that analysis. Several other counties, from Newton to Jasper to Pulaski Counties in the northwest part of the state each shifted to Republicans by about 5 points.

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Where did Harris do better than in 2020?

There was no real good news for Indiana Democrats in Tuesday’s election results. But a few areas shifted a little bit more Democratic over 2020.

Besides the slight shift in Hamilton County, other Indianapolis suburbs where Harris performed marginally better than Biden in 2020 were Hancock County, where she did 3.8 points better than in 2020 and Boone County, which favored Harris by 2.4 points more than Biden, according to New York Times data.

Steuben County in the Northeast part of the state was more than 3 points more Democratic than 2020, Benton County on the far west side of the state was 1.6 points more Democratic and Harrison County near the Indiana-Kentucky border was seven points more Democratic.

Reactions to Trump’s performance

Indiana’s Republican U.S. Sen. Todd Young congratulated Trump and his running mate, U.S. Sen. J.D. Vance “on their decisive victory.”

“The incoming Trump administration and new Republican Senate majority will work together to reverse the open border policies of the last four years and address the economic challenges facing families in Indiana and across the country,” Young wrote in an X post.

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Indianapolis City-County Councilor Nick Roberts, a Democrat, said the result of the election was “genuinely devastating” but praised Harris, saying she “ran an incredible campaign” in a tight window. He also pointed out that Harris carried the majority of precincts in suburban Carmel, signaling future potential for Democrats in the Indianapolis suburbs.

Contact senior government accountability reporter Hayleigh Colombo at hcolombo@indystar.com.



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Kansas

New ’Furever Tree' in Kansas City park honors beloved pets this holiday season

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New ’Furever Tree' in Kansas City park honors beloved pets this holiday season


KANSAS CITY, Mo. (KCTV) – Our beloved pets will always have a special place in our hearts.

People living in the Kansas City area will have a new way to honor the animals no longer with their families this holiday season.

Kansas City Parks and Rec plans to add a ‘Furever Tree’ in Loose Park.

The tree will be filled with pictures of the special members of area families during the Santa Paws in the Park event on Dec. 7. The celebration is planned for 2 p.m. – 4 p.m.

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Anyone can take a picture of their furry friend to the event to be added to the tree.

You’ll find the tree standing in front of the Loose Park Garden Center throughout the holiday season.

Organizers are taking the idea from a popular Furever Tree in New York’s Central Park. Every year hundreds of people leave pictures and messages to their past pets on a tree in the park. Volunteers remove the tributes at the end of the year and rehang them every November.

ALSO READ: Buc-ee’s plans to bring hundreds of jobs, millions of visitors to Kansas City

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Learn more about the new tree through the Kansas City Parks and Rec website.



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