The toughest stretch of the Indianapolis schedule begins with a trip to a place that has been an intermittent house of horrors for the Colts over the years.
Indianapolis hasn’t won in Pittsburgh since 2008.
Daniel Jones, Jonathan Taylor and the rest of the Colts will try to end that streak at 1 p.m. Sunday in Acrisure Stadium (WTTV-4) against a reeling Steelers team hoping to bounce back from disheartening losses to Cincinnati and Green Bay.
Plenty is at stake for both teams. Indianapolis (7-1) placed itself in the driver’s south for the AFC South title and potentially the No. 1 seed with its fast start, and Pittsburgh (4-3) is trying to hold onto the lead in an ugly AFC North this season.
1. Pittsburgh is typically known for defense. Not this Steelers team. These Steelers rank 30th in the NFL in yards allowed (386.0 per game), 32nd in passing yards (273.3), 18th against the run (112.7), and they’re not much better on a per-play basis. Pittsburgh ranks 22nd in scoring defense, giving up 24.1 points per game, but the wheels are coming off there, too — the Steelers allowed 33 and 35 points in their last two games. Their reward is facing a Colts offense that is the No. 1 attack in the NFL, leading the league in yards (385.3) and points per game (33.8) while sitting in the top 10 in essentially every major category.
2. The Steelers made a trade to upgrade their defense this week, picking up strong safety Kyle Dugger from New England for a low pick. Dugger was once considered one of the NFL’s best up-and-coming safeties, earning him a four-year, $58 million extension from the Patriots, but he’s fallen out of favor in New England due to issues in coverage. Pittsburgh may need Dugger to play right away; normal starting strong safety DeShon Elliott is out with a knee injury this week.
3. Rookie tight end Tyler Warren should be licking his chops. Warren leads all NFL tight ends with 492 receiving yards through the first eight games, averaging an impressive 13.3 per catch, and now he gets to go up against a Pittsburgh defense that will likely counter with Dugger and free safety Chuck Clark, who is allowing opposing quarterbacks to produce a 144.4 quarterback rating when he’s the nearest defender in coverage. Pittsburgh has given up 555 yards to tight ends this season, the third-worst mark in the league, and the Steelers are susceptible to players who can make plays downfield like Warren.
4. Then again, Indianapolis wide receivers Michael Pittman Jr., Alec Pierce and Josh Downs are going to get their opportunities. Pittsburgh has allowed the third-most catches and sixth-most yards in the NFL to wide receivers this season. The Steelers doubled down on experience by picking up aging star cornerbacks Jalen Ramsey and Darius Slay, but both players are allowing opposing quarterbacks to post ratings of more than 100 when they’re the nearest player in coverage. Indianapolis can beat secondaries in a variety of ways with Pittman, Pierce and Downs, and Jones has been excellent at spreading the ball around, making the Colts’ tendencies difficult to gauge.
5. Pittsburgh’s old defensive formula was to overwhelm offenses with the pass rush, and the Steelers are tied for eighth in the NFL in sacks this season with 22, but the pressure has been far from consistent. Pittsburgh ranks 14th in the league in pressure rate, getting pressure on 35% of dropbacks, and the Colts have been one of the league’s best at avoiding sacks this season, giving up just nine sacks through the first eight games.
6. The edge tandem of T.J. Watt and Nick Herbig drives the Pittsburgh rush. Herbig has 4.5 sacks, Watt has four of his own and the two outside linebackers each have 27 pressures this season, a number that ranks firmly within the top 10. Indianapolis will counter with the excellent tackle tandem of Bernhard Raimann and Braden Smith, who have been solid in pass protection all season long.
7. With Jones at the helm, Indianapolis simply hasn’t turned the ball over this season. The Colts have committed just four turnovers (three interceptions, one fumble), trailing only Philadelphia and Green Bay for the NFL’s top spot. Pittsburgh has forced 10 turnovers, tied for eighth in the NFL and a big reason why the Steelers’ tendency to hemorrhage yards hasn’t hurt them as bad as it could have this season. If Pittsburgh is going to make life tough on this Indianapolis offense, the Steelers are going to have to force a few Jones mistakes, but when Pittsburgh took on the Packers last week, Green Bay quarterback Jordan Love carved up the Steelers instead of turning the ball over.
8. Taylor has forced his way into the MVP discussion this season because he’s been remarkably consistent, producing something special in almost every game. Pittsburgh’s run defense is probably better than its numbers; the Steelers have been solid in five games this season, giving up big days on the ground to only the Jets and Bengals. Taylor’s a different kind of test, though; the Colts superstar leads the NFL with 850 rushing yards and 14 total touchdowns even though he’s faced five defenses ranked higher in rush defense than Pittsburgh.
9. With Taylor on the ground and Jones finding Taylor, Warren, Downs and Pittman through the air, the Indianapolis offense has been a nightmare for opposing linebackers this season, and according to the numbers, Pittsburgh’s primary passing tandem of Patrick Queen and Payton Wilson looks ripe for the picking. Queen has allowed a rating of 132.7 when he’s the nearest defender in coverage, and Wilson isn’t far behind at 111.9. Expect Jones to attack the soft underbelly of the Pittsburgh defense as often as possible.
Can the Colts stop Aaron Rodgers?
10. Aaron Rodgers could be a problem for the Indianapolis defense. Decimated by injuries at the cornerback position, the Colts have struggled against the pass this season, ranking 29th in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game (252.0) even though they’ve been 13th in yards per dropback (6.4). Rodgers has been good, completing 68.3% of his passes, averaging 7.2 yards per attempt and posting a 104.4 quarterback rating while taking just 12 sacks through the first seven games. Green Bay was able to put Rodgers under fire in the second half last week, but the Packers pass rush is far more dominant than Indianapolis has been. Making matters worse, defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo is going to have a hard time confusing Rodgers, who has seen just about everything in his career by this point.
11. D.K. Metcalf is a problem for young Colts cornerbacks Mekhi Blackmon, Johnathan Edwards and Cameron Mitchell. Metcalf is volatile, but he’s also racked up 461 yards and five touchdowns on just 27 catches this season, and his combination of size and speed makes the former Seahawk a difficult matchup for any Indianapolis cornerback. If third-year cornerback Jaylon Jones is finally ready to make his defensive debut after missing the first half of the season due to recurring hamstring injuries, he will help, but it will also be his first action of 2025.
12. Indianapolis has Warren at tight end. Pittsburgh has Jonnu Smith (22 catches, 134 yards), Pat Freiermuth (16 catches, 200 yards) and mammoth red-zone target Darnell Washington (9 catches, 84 yards). The Colts have struggled against tight ends, allowing the third-most catches and second-most yards to the position. With Rodgers at the helm, Indianapolis safeties Nick Cross and Camryn Bynum must be on top of their games.
13. Pittsburgh’s running game has been fairly pedestrian this season. Running backs Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell are both averaging 4.5 yards per carry, but the Steelers rank just 22nd in the NFL in yards per carry (4.07) and 25th in rushing yards per game (94.3). If Indianapolis can jump on Pittsburgh early, it might take the running game out of it entirely, but if the Colts start a little slow, nose tackle Grover Stewart might be able to take the Pittsburgh running game out of it by himself.
14. The Steelers have been incredible in the red zone, converting 73.68% of their chances into touchdowns, the third-best mark in the league. Indianapolis has been a middling defense in the red zone, allowing scores on 61.54% of its chances to rank 18th, and Anarumo is going to need a plan to limit Rodgers when Pittsburgh starts sniffing the goal line.
Joel A. Erickson and Nathan Brown cover the Colts all season. Get more coverage on IndyStarTV and with the Colts Insider newsletter.
