INDIANAPOLIS — Some of the forgettable video games of the 2011 NFL season performed out on Jan. 1, 2012, between two groups going nowhere.

Because the Colts and Jaguars squared off in Week 17, the remainder of the NFL targeted on the upcoming playoffs. However for Indianapolis, the day introduced one more loss in a season outlined by dropping.

Right here’s the factor: The outcome additionally introduced with it an important victory, with Indianapolis clinching the highest choose within the 2012 NFL draft. The prize: A lot-acclaimed Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck, who had lengthy been considered as one of the crucial NFL-ready passers in years.

Two months later, the Colts would make the historic choice to launch iconic — however injured — quarterback Peyton Manning, paving the way in which for the collection of Luck.

As bleak as that 2011 season felt within the second, the response to it was considerably optimistic. Receiver Reggie Wayne, now the workforce’s receivers coach, articulated it effectively that day within the dropping locker room.

“This must be a enjoyable time for the town of Indianapolis throughout the offseason,” he stated. “Regardless of the 12 months we had, there are issues to stay up for. It must be thrilling.”

Quick ahead to 2022, and the Colts (4-7-1) are within the midst of one other underwhelming season. Indianapolis ranks final within the NFL in offensive anticipated factors added, thirtieth in scoring and twenty sixth in yards per sport. Like 2011, the necessity to deal with the quarterback place is obvious. The distinction? The trail to resolving the state of affairs is way much less clear.

For simply the fourth time since 1990, the Colts are projected to make a deliberate effort to handle their quarterback place early within the draft. The Colts have had such unimaginable fortune at quarterback that they’ve made simply 5 quarterback choices within the first three rounds throughout their complete Indianapolis period (starting in 1984). This time, nevertheless, they possible gained’t have the highest general choose and their path to discovering their quarterback is prone to be extra treacherous.

Can a workforce that fell into Corridor-of-Famer Manning and four-time Professional Bowler Luck the final two instances it had a dire want at quarterback discover one other answer on the sport’s most tough place to fill?

How’d they get right here?

Earlier than shifting on, it’s essential to handle how the Colts obtained right here.

Their present quarterback state of affairs — 37-year-old Matt Ryan is displaying his age and 2021 sixth-round choose Sam Ehlinger hasn’t confirmed he’s prepared — might be traced on to Luck’s gorgeous retirement in August 2019.

The Colts had constructed a workforce to intensify their prodigious younger quarterback, specializing in their offensive line and protection. It appeared to be working. The Colts went 10-6 and gained a divisional playoff sport in 2018, Luck’s first season following a multi-year battle with proper shoulder accidents that robbed him of the 2017 season.

But it surely was all short-lived. Luck retired on Aug. 24, 2019, after encountering a cussed calf harm, leaving the Colts in a lurch. It marked the primary time since Manning’s arrival in 1998 that the Colts confronted long-term uncertainty at quarterback.

However there’s a key calculation the Colts made following Luck’s departure that has, arguably, introduced them to their present place greater than three years later: The Colts proceeded with the concept they had been a quarterback away from taking the following step of their development. And but, every season since Luck’s retirement has produced fewer tangible outcomes regardless of strikes to stabilize the quarterback place.

In 2020, the Colts added veteran Philip Rivers and went 11-5, however they had been eradicated within the first spherical of the playoffs. In 2021, the much-debated commerce for former Eagles star Carson Wentz led to a 9-8 end with two consecutive season-ending losses that eradicated the Colts from the postseason. This season, with largely Ryan underneath heart, the Colts have by no means seemed like a risk to get to the playoffs. Coach Frank Reich was fired final month and the workforce feels as far-off from competition because it’s been in years.

The Colts have frequently talked themselves into these strikes. In August, proprietor Jim Irsay described the workforce as “arrange for excellence,” including that Ryan got here to Indianapolis “to get his Lombardi. That is the time.”

However the Colts’ actuality begs a query: Had been the Colts ever actually only a quarterback away (particularly if the quarterbacks weren’t as gifted as Luck)? After buying veteran quarterbacks in every of the previous three seasons however getting worse outcomes, it’s a tough argument to make.

Drafting QBs is difficult

It’s essential to notice that the Colts haven’t had many optimum possibilities to draft a quarterback since Luck’s retirement. However Ballard can be very delicate to the fact that deciding on a quarterback early within the draft raises the stakes for a normal supervisor.

We all know this as a result of Ballard instructed us.

“Return and have a look at first-round quarterbacks over the previous 10 years,” he stated final 12 months. “All people thinks you simply take one and also you’re gonna repair the issue. Look, taking one will get y’all off my a– for somewhat bit, however the second that man doesn’t play effectively, I’m gonna be the primary one run out of the constructing.”

There’s fact in what Ballard says. Historical past is filled with workforce executives who paid a worth for lacking on quarterback prospects. But it surely’s additionally attainable Ballard’s aversion to chasing a quarterback has extended the Colts’ drawback.

Wanting again on the Colts’ post-Luck eventualities, there’s room for second-guessing. In 2020, the primary offseason following Luck’s retirement, the Colts shipped their first-round choose (thirteenth general) to the San Francisco 49ers for DeForest Buckner. The defensive deal with has panned out superbly; he was a first-team All-Professional in 2020 and made the Professional Bowl final season.

Making the Buckner deal fortified the Colts’ gifted protection. However that first-round choose, theoretically, may have been used to commerce up in a draft the place Tua Tagovailoa and Justin Herbert had been chosen with the fifth and sixth general picks, respectively.

A 12 months later, within the spring of 2021, the Colts traded for Wentz. That meant they weren’t inclined to make a transfer for Justin Fields when the Ohio State product started sliding within the draft, finally falling to the Chicago Bears at No. 11 general. Fields was a participant Ballard had lengthy been enamored with. The Wentz transfer was a catastrophe for Indianapolis, who traded him after one season. Fields, in the meantime, is giving the Bears some hope of fixing their decades-long quarterback disaster.

Lastly, the Colts’ 2022 first-round choose was despatched to Philadelphia to finish the Wentz commerce, leaving the Colts with out a clear path to deciding on a quarterback within the first spherical. It additionally was a traditionally poor draft for quarterbacks, with the Pittsburgh Steelers’ Kenny Pickett being the one one chosen within the first spherical.

Now what?

For long-time Colts followers, that is prone to be a unique expertise than the acquisitions of Manning and Luck. In these cases, the Colts had whole management as a result of that they had the primary general draft choose. Their timing in every occasion was additionally impeccable, with a uncommon expertise staring them within the face in 1998 and 2012.

That is one thing Ballard has not directly acknowledged up to now when he stated of drafting a quarterback, “there’s obtained to be somewhat little bit of timing and luck come into play.”

In 2023, it’s unclear whether or not both of these might be working within the Colts’ favor. Proper now, it’s a little bit of a tough quarterback class to forecast. Alabama’s Bryce Younger and Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud are typically thought of the highest prospects, projected to be the primary two chosen.

Past that, it will get murky. Kentucky’s Will Levis and Florida’s Anthony Richardson, amongst others, might be within the dialog for quarterback-needy groups. Tennessee’s Hendon Hooker, who not too long ago tore his ACL, will immediate some fascinating conversations as effectively.

If the season ended as we speak, the Colts would have the 14th general choose. For context, let’s have a look at a pattern from the previous 10 drafts. Of the 30 quarterbacks chosen within the first spherical in that span, simply 9 had been picked 14th or later. Nineteen of these 30 gamers had been picked within the high 10.

The Colts’ subsequent steps at quarterback may also require some selections on Ryan. He’s underneath contract for subsequent season, and $12 million of his wage is already assured. Releasing him would depart the Colts on the hook for $18 million in useless cash on their wage cap plus the $12 million in money Ryan is owed. The Colts may conceivably preserve him and have him mentor a rookie quarterback, which means he would then make $29 million.

Ryan stated this week he hasn’t made any selections about his future after a rocky season that’s included his short-term benching and Reich’s dismissal.

“Given all the issues which have occurred and the place we’re at, I’m simply taking it daily,” he instructed ESPN. “It’s been lots. We’ll get there after we get there.”

However for everybody concerned, consequential quarterback selections lie forward and can go a great distance towards dictating the path of the Colts’ franchise. And in contrast to earlier cases of their historical past, subsequent 12 months’s selections might be rather more difficult.