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Early voting numbers suggest strong turnout, but which candidate benefits?

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Early voting numbers suggest strong turnout, but which candidate benefits?


Chris and Shelby Ashby waited about an hour and a half Tuesday morning to vote at St. Luke’s United Methodist Church in Indianapolis, where the line coiled around temporary fences before stretching into the parking lot. 

The Indianapolis couple’s toddler was in preschool, and they were hoping to avoid the long lines on Election Day. 

Chris Ashby said he was motivated to vote for Democrat Jennifer McCormick in the governor’s race and Vice President Kamala Harris in the presidential election. 

“We rank too low in education,” Ashby said. “[McCormick] is an educator, and it was the most important issue for me.” 

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Shelby Ashby said it was “very important we have the right people in charge,” a reference toHarris. 

At the same location, Claire Baker, also of Indianapolis, waited three hours to vote. This was her first time voting early. 

“It’s always a privilege to exercise my right to vote,” Baker said. She was most excited to cast a ballot for former President Donald Trump in the presidential election. 

The wait was at least an hour in neighboring Hamilton County, where Fishers resident Blake Broeker said as left the county fairgrounds that he was also motivated to vote for Trump. 

Early voting is well underway in Indiana, where nearly 955,000 people had submitted ballots as of Tuesday. That number marks a strong turnout that trailed only the record-setting early turnout of 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic pushed more Hoosiers to vote early — either in person or by mail. 

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Election experts were encouraged by the turnout thus far but stopped short of forecasting an advantage for either party or candidate based on the numbers. 

“If you’d have told me that a quarter of the turnout in 2020 would have already voted in Indiana with a week to go, I would have been surprised,” said Michael Wolf, political science chair and professor at Purdue University Fort Wayne. “It is quite a surprise. If you want people to participate, then early voting is clearly working.”

What the early voting numbers show

(Design: Joy Walstrum)

So far, 2024’s turnout lags behind 2020 figures but is well ahead of 2016 numbers. 

In 2020, more than 1,358,000 Hoosiers had voted by the week before Election Day. The total in 2016 was about 571,000. 

According to Democratic data firm TargetSmart, about 54% of the ballots returned thus far belonged to women — a similar proportion to voter splits in 2020. 

The split by age demographics is starker. 

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In 2020, about 31% of ballots returned at this point belonged to voters under 50 years old, while about 42% came from people over 65. 

This year, about 25% of ballots collected thus far came from voters under 50. About 49% of votes belonged to Hoosiers over 65. 

What the numbers don’t show

“We know how many people voted early, but we have no idea who they voted for,” Indiana University Professor Emeritus Marjorie Hershey said. 

Trump vilified the early voting practice in 2020, Hershey said, and Democrats tended to take the pandemic more seriously. That meant early voting numbers skewed Democratic. 

But more Republicans have embraced the practice in 2024, making it impossible to speculate about which candidates benefit from strong early turnout, according to Hershey.  

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It’s also too early to make such assumptions. 

“Typically, what happens is a wave for one candidate or the other in the last few days,” Hershey said. “But it’s impossible to know who that will be.”

Competitive governor’s race could be driving turnout

Wolf, the Purdue professor, said the gubernatorial race between Republican U.S. Sen. Mike Braun and McCormick, the state’s former superintendent of public instruction, may be a factor in the high turnout. 

“People are paying attention to the governor’s race,” he said. “It’s hard to punch through the national-level stuff, but the candidates have had good, crisp debates.”

McCormick is airing commercials paid for with out-of-state money, Wolf said, and Republican groups have moved to match — meaning they must see the race tightening. 

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“To have two candidates who have held statewide office matters,” Wolf said. “Both candidates have run solid campaigns, and McCormick has produced a narrative that will have some people more engaged.” 

Voting lines outside of Indianapolis 

One statewide advocacy group is noting long early voting lines in places where they have not been seen before. 

“It’s not unusual to see long lines and waits in Marion County, but we’re hearing about lines in other parts of the state,” said Julia Vaughn, executive director of the voter rights advocacy group Common Cause Indiana. “Two hours in Carmel. An hour and a half in Allen County.” 

Vaughn was cautiously optimistic about the turnout thus far. 

“It would be great if, [with] this election, Indiana could get out of the cellar in terms of voter turnout,” she said. 

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Several key issues, such as health care and education, were motivating voters more than specific candidates in this cycle, Vaughn said. 

She is rooting for the heavy turnout to continue through Tuesday. 

“I hope vote centers aren’t ghost towns on Election Day,” she said. 

Contact Rory Appleton on X at @roryehappleton or email him at [email protected].

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Winter storm watch issued in Chicago, NW Indiana ahead of lake-effect snow

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Winter storm watch issued in Chicago, NW Indiana ahead of lake-effect snow


Several rounds of lake-effect snow could potentially make for dangerous travel conditions in Chicago and northwest Indiana, prompting a winter storm watch.

Snow could fall outside of the effected areas Friday morning and then again during the day on Saturday, but ground zero for the snowy weather could be Lake and Porter counties, where a winter storm watch has been issued by the National Weather Service.

In central and southern Cook County, the winter storm watch will be in effect from Friday afternoon through late Friday night.

According to the National Weather Service, an intense band of lake-effect snow is expected to develop over Lake Michigan on Friday, and could produce snowfall rates of two or more inches per hour at times in the Chicago area.

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Some localized snowfall totals in central and southern Cook County could exceed six inches, according to NWS officials.

In Lake and Porter counties, that watch goes into effect Friday afternoon and will run through Saturday, and could potentially be upgraded to a winter storm warning as lake-effect snow begins to develop over Lake Michigan.

Some areas could see six or more inches of snow between Friday and Saturday evening, with the heaviest bands potentially dumping an inch of snow or more per hour on the region.

The heavy snow could make “travel very difficult,” according to NWS, and with the light and fluffy snow, winds could cause significant visibility issues in addition to snow-covered roadways.

Snow is expected to develop Friday morning and primarily impact northeastern Illinois, primarily in Lake and Cook counties, according to forecast models. Other parts of the area to the west and south of the city could see some snow in the early afternoon, but significant accumulations aren’t likely away from the lake.

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A winter weather advisory has been issued for DuPage, Lake and Cook counties, taking effect at 9 a.m. Friday and running through 3 p.m. when the winter storm watch takes effect in Cook County.

A “burst” of accumulating snow is possible in the area, with slick travel conditions possible.

There will be some breaks in the snow because the heaviest snow bands are expected to “wobble” during the evening hours, but at its most intense the lake-effect snow bands could dump as much as an inch of snow or more per hour.

That “wobble” could push the lake-effect snow band into northeastern Illinois at times, leading to more snowfall along the shores of Lake Michigan into Saturday.

Some parts of Illinois along the state line with Indiana could continue to see snow depending on how far south the band pushes, but it won’t be as heavy as it will be in Lake and Porter counties.

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As the lake-effect snow winds down, one other trend could potentially come into focus: warming temperatures. By Sunday highs could be in the mid-to-upper 20s across the area, and some forecast models are suggesting that readings could climb back above the freezing mark by next week, marking the first time in quite a while where readings could be above their normal levels for the season.

Be sure to stay tuned to the NBC 5 Storm Team for all the latest weather forecasts, and download the NBC Chicago app for real-time weather alerts sent directly to your phone.



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Indianapolis police arrest 16-year-old murder suspect

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Indianapolis police arrest 16-year-old murder suspect


INDIANAPOLIS (WISH) — The suspect in a November homicide on the city’s near north side was identified Thursday as a 16-year-old boy, Indianapolis police said.

On the night of Nov. 8, 2025, Indianapolis Metropolitan Police Department officers responded to a shooting in the 3800 block of Pennsylvania Street. That’s a residential area in the Mapleton-Fall Creek neighborhood near the intersection of 38th and Meridian streets.

Officers arrived and found the victim, later identified as 35-year-old Stephen Coach. Coach was taken to a local hospital, where he was later pronounced deceased.

Homicide detectives reviewed video footage, collected evidence, and spoke with witnesses. After “following up on several leads,” they identified the 16-year-old as the suspected shooter, IMPD says.

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On Tuesday, after several weeks of trying to find the teenage suspect, IMPD detectives and the SWAT team found him in the 4100 block of Elmont Terrace. That’s a neighborhood near 42nd Street and Mitthoefer Road on the city’s far east side.

The teenager was taken into custody without incident.

The Marion County Prosecutor’s Office will review the case and decide whether the 16-year-old should be tried as an adult.

A booking photo was not immediately available due to the suspect’s age.

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Competitive cooking event to return to Indianapolis in October

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Competitive cooking event to return to Indianapolis in October


INDIANAPOLIS (WISH) — The World Food Championships will return to Indianapolis for a third consecutive year, the Indiana State Fairgrounds & Event Center announced Wednesday morning.

The Oct. 15-18 event that celebrates competitive cooking draws worldwide competitors. This year’s championships will feature a refined competition schedule aimed at enhancing the experience for both competitors and fans.

Competition will kick off with qualifying rounds on Thursday and Friday. Sunday culmination will feature the final rounds for the 10 core categories and the crowning of the champions.

Tickets and further programming details will be announced in the forthcoming months, the release from the fairgrounds said.

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The fairgrounds sits off East 38th Street and East Fall Creek Parkway North Drive in north Indianapolis.



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