Illinois
Michigan vs. Illinois football prediction: What the analytics say
Big Ten football returns to the gridiron this weekend as No. 22 Illinois plays host to No. 24 Michigan in college football’s Week 8 action on Saturday. Let’s take a look at the latest prediction for the game from an expert football model that picks winners.
Illinois (5-1) edged out Purdue by a single point in overtime last week, moving to 2-1 in Big Ten play and hoping to stay in contention for the conference championship.
Michigan lost its second game of the season two weeks ago on the road against Washington, falling to 2-1 in Big Ten games and now with virtually no margin for error in the playoff race.
Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.
The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.
So far, the models forecast a very close game between these Big Ten rivals.
Michigan is projected to win the game outright in the slight majority 59.6 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.
That leaves Illinois as the expected winner in the remaining 40.4 percent of sims.
In total, Michigan came out ahead in 11,920 of the index’s simulations of the game, while Illinois prevailed in the other 8,080 predictions.
And the index projects a very close game on the scoreboard, too.
Michigan is projected to be 3.8 points better than Illinois on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.
If so, that would be just enough for the Wolverines to cover the spread against the Illini.
That’s because Michigan is a 3 point favorite against Illinois, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.
FanDuel lists the total at 43.5 points for the game.
And it set the moneyline odds for Michigan at -155 and for Illinois at +135 to win outright.
A slight majority of bettors are giving Illinois the benefit of the doubt against Michigan, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.
53 percent of bets currently forecast the Illini will either win in an upset or keep the game within the narrow line.
And the other 47 percent of wagers expect the Wolverines will win the game and cover the spread.
Illinois is sixth among Big Ten teams with a 3.8 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and will win 7.7 games this season, according to the FPI’s metrics.
That model gives Michigan a 2 percent chance at the 12-team playoff and a win total prediction of 6.8 games this season.
Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.
Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.
Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.
First-place votes in parentheses
- Texas (56)
- Oregon (6)
- Penn State
- Ohio State
- Georgia
- Miami
- Alabama
- LSU
- Iowa State
- Clemson
- Tennessee
- Notre Dame
- BYU
- Texas A&M
- Boise State
- Indiana
- Kansas State
- Ole Miss
- Missouri
- Pittsburgh
- SMU
- Illinois
- Army
- Michigan
- Navy
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams
Follow College Football HQ: Bookmark | Rankings | Picks
Illinois
Wisconsin man, woman killed in head-on Wadsworth crash involving semi ID’d: officials
WADSWORTH, Ill. (WLS) — Two people who were killed in a head-on crash involving a semi in the north suburbs on Thursday morning have been identified, officials said on Friday.
The Lake County sheriff’s deputies and the Newport Township Fire Protection District responded to the Route 173 crash, which happened west of North Kilbourne Road in Wadsworth, around 7:50 a.m.
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Witnesses told investigators that the driver of a 2009 Acura sedan, which was traveling eastbound, appeared to be having difficulty staying in his lane and drifted into the path of a Freightliner semi-truck, which was heading westbound.
The two vehicles then collided head-on, officials said. A third vehicle was also hit.
Chopper 7 was over the scene at 9 a.m., capturing the damage.
The sedan’s driver, a man, and a passenger, a woman, were pronounced dead on the scene.
The Lake County Coroner’s Office identified them as 51-year-old Kelly Wooten and 45-year-old Jacklyn Bradley of Stoughton, Wisconsin. Preliminary autopsy results indicate that both Wooten and Bradley died from blunt-force injuries.
The driver of the third vehicle, a 54-year-old Salem, Wisconsin woman, suffered non-life-threatening injuries.
The crash shut down Route 173 between Kilbourne Road and U.S. 41 in both directions.
The Lake County Sheriff’s Office Technical Crash Investigations Team is investigating.
The video in the player above is from a previous report.
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Illinois
AIPAC faces test of its power in Illinois primary as Democrats debate future of Israel relationship
WASHINGTON — A crowded primary season in Illinois is shaping up as the next test for the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, a powerful advocacy organization that’s generating fresh turmoil over the Democratic Party’s relationship to Israel and the role of undisclosed campaign cash in this year’s midterm elections.
AIPAC, which was founded decades ago to lobby for U.S. support for Israel, has reserved at least $1.9 million in advertisements through its super PAC in the race to replace Rep. Danny Davis, a veteran politician who is retiring. The organization hopes to boost Melissa Conyears-Ervin, the city treasurer in Chicago, to victory over a dozen other candidates in the March 17 primary.
Other organizations that critics believe are tied to AIPAC are also spending heavily in Illinois, a source of bitterness and recriminations in a state already known for its bare knuckled brand of politics.
The aggressive spending comes after AIPAC put almost $2 million into a recent Democratic primary for a special election in New Jersey, an effort that’s widely considered to have backfired. AIPAC targeted Tom Malinowski, a former congressman who narrowly lost to progressive candidate Analilia Mejia — who has been outspoken in criticism of Israel.
But AIPAC appears undaunted by the experience, despite an outpouring of criticism from across the political spectrum.
“We expect to be involved in dozens of races both in primaries and general elections this cycle,” said Patrick Dorton, a spokesman for AIPAC’s affiliated super PAC, the United Democracy Project, or UDP.
AIPAC has more urgently pursued its mission as Democratic skepticism and even hostility toward the U.S.-Israel relationship increases because of the war in Gaza, jeopardizing traditional bipartisan support for military assistance to a historic ally. But the group’s assertive interventions in this year’s primaries, which are expected to expand in the months to come, also risk further fracturing the party and eroding any remaining goodwill.
AIPAC has been dividing line in Illinois primary
Campaign finance laws involving super PACs make it nearly impossible to ascertain who is behind much of the money being spent in Illinois. Although UDP is open about its affiliation, recently created groups like Elect Chicago Women and Affordable Chicago Now haven’t yet been required to disclose the sources of their money.
Neither group is obligated to disclose its funding until after the Illinois’ primary. Critics suspect they’re conduits for AIPAC money, and AIPAC has declined to say whether there’s any connection.
UDP, Elect Chicago Women and Affordable Chicago Now are three of the top four spenders on advertisements in House races so far, with almost $11 million total, and the majority going to Illinois. Financial numbers are drawn from AdImpact, a nonpartisan ad-tracking service.
None of the organizations mention Israel in their campaign messaging, a strategy that AIPAC-affiliated groups have used in the past as well.
For example, the United Democracy Project assailed Malinowski in New Jersey as sympathetic to President Donald Trump’s deportation efforts, undermining him with liberal voters. In Illinois, it is promoting Conyears-Ervin to replace Davis in the 7th congressional district by saying she will fight to lower costs and protect healthcare.
The strategy has contributed to speculation and angst about AIPAC’s influence in politics. Supporters of Israel accuse critics of using antisemitic tropes about dual loyalty, and others say the focus on AIPAC is misplaced.
“I think the folks who are talking the most about AIPAC are seeking to demonize Israel and create a break in the U.S.-Israel relationship,” said Rep. Brad Schneider, a Democrat who represents Illinois’ 10th district.
“The problem is Citizens United and the decision to allow dark money,” said Schneider, the co-chair of the Congressional Jewish Caucus. “The problem is the rules. Let’s fix the rules.”
Candidates have been criticizing each other for their perceived willingness to accept help from AIPAC. Four progressive candidates vying for different Illinois congressional seats jointly condemned the organization’s role in the state’s primaries during a press conference in February. Another candidate is selling shirts on her website with anti-AIPAC messaging.
AIPAC has increased its campaign spending in recent years
Malinowski is still raw over his experience as AIPAC’s target in New Jersey, and he said that he won’t support any candidates backed by the organization this year. He described himself as pro-Israel even though he opposed unconditional assistance for the country, a stance that drew AIPAC’s ire.
“Obviously, we were going to talk about Israel and Gaza in the campaign because many voters would be asking questions about it,” Malinowski said. “But I wanted those discussions to be about the substance, not colored by baggage of endorsements from groups that are controversial now.”
AIPAC said in a statement that Mejia’s success in the primary was “an anticipated possibility,” suggesting they had no regrets that their role could have helped pave the way for a candidate who has described Israel’s actions in Gaza as genocide.
Although AIPAC has always been politically active, it began spending directly on campaigns during the 2022 midterms.
Since then, it has spent more than $221 million through its traditional PAC and its super PAC, according to Federal Election Commission filings between December 2021 and January 2026.
The super PAC has mostly focused on Democratic primaries. In the 2022 and 2024 cycles, UDP spent at least $1 million supporting or opposing 18 candidates, 16 of whom were Democrats. Many of those candidates were running in open races.
Traditional PACs are allowed to raise and donate up to $5,000 per candidate per election, and may coordinate directly with campaigns. Super PACs don’t have fundraising or spending limits but are not allowed to make direct or in-kind contributions to candidates nor coordinate communications.
In 2024, UDP’s biggest investments were made in support of centrist challengers to progressive incumbents. It spent more than $13 million in the 2024 Democratic primary in New York’s 16th District, in which current Rep. George Latimer defeated former Rep. Jamaal Bowman. It also spent $8.5 million opposing former Rep. Cori Bush, who lost her primary to Rep. Wesley Bell.
Illinois
Chicago Bears property tax incentives advance in Illinois House over city opposition
A tax incentive plan aimed at keeping the Bears in Illinois advanced in the state House Thursday amid opposition from City Hall and questions about whether Democrats can whip up enough votes to pass it.
The legislation, introduced by state Rep. Kam Buckner (D-Chicago), would allow the NFL team to negotiate a freeze on property tax assessments with local taxing districts — in this case, Arlington Heights, Cook County and local school districts.
This marks the latest development in the high-stakes bidding war between Illinois and Indiana over which state can lay claim to one of the NFL’s most storied franchises as the team looks for the exits from its long-time lease at Soldier Field.
On a roll call opposed by Republicans, the Democratic-led House Revenue & Finance Committee voted 13-7 to back Buckner’s legislation and position it for a vote by the full House. But that didn’t happen after the committee vote because the House adjourned for the week without taking action on the measure.
Following the committee’s action, Buckner said it’s time to start putting a legislative plan into motion, and the property tax concessions are essential for anything going forward.
“I don’t feel pressured by the Bears,” Buckner said. “What is important to me, though, is that we are able to put these tools in play. I do want the team to stay in Illinois. That’s very important to me.”
The bill that advanced Thursday deals only with the issue of property tax certainty and saving the Bears hundreds of millions of dollars by freezing property taxes on the Arlington International Racecourse site, and allowing the team to negotiate reduced “payments in lieu of property taxes with suburban school districts.”
Still to be determined is the massive infusion of infrastructure funding required to bankroll the road, sewer and utility work needed to ready the site for development.
Ahead of the vote, Buckner appeared on “The Fran Spielman Show” podcast and said the infrastructure wish list that started at $855 million has been whittled down to $734 million and said, “We’re still talking through it.”
But Buckner told the Chicago Sun-Times that whatever the final number turns out to be, the Chicago legislative delegation will demand similar help to renovate and refresh Soldier Field and ease the transportation bottleneck that makes it difficult to get in and out of the Museum Campus.
“We’ve still got some things to work on, including Chicago and what happens with Chicago and a Chicago package,” he said.
Buckner, whose district includes Soldier Field, has long spoken out against the state cutting a blank check to finance a new Bears’ stadium, particularly given that roughly half a billion dollars in debt remains from the 2003 renovation of Soldier Field. Buckner said the Bears should pick up that tab.
The Chicago Park District has made an ask for $630 million for infrastructure and renovation of the Soldier Field — an appeal that a representative of the mayor’s office renewed today despite formally registering as an opponent to Buckner’s legislation.
Steven Mahr, Chicago’s acting chief financial officer, told the House panel the relocation of the Bears would have “devastating consequences on the city,” and he re-upped the city’s previous $630 million infrastructure request.
“Some of those consequences are unknowable,” Mahr said. “It is clear that Chicago is the economic engine of the state of Illinois. Engines require fuel to run, otherwise engines stall and grind to a halt. The city is requesting a fair and equitable opportunity and a level playing field.”
Labor unions, business groups and several northwest suburbs, including Arlington Heights, voiced support for the legislation.
This is a developing story.
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