Illinois
Michigan vs. Illinois football prediction: What the analytics say
Big Ten football returns to the gridiron this weekend as No. 22 Illinois plays host to No. 24 Michigan in college football’s Week 8 action on Saturday. Let’s take a look at the latest prediction for the game from an expert football model that picks winners.
Illinois (5-1) edged out Purdue by a single point in overtime last week, moving to 2-1 in Big Ten play and hoping to stay in contention for the conference championship.
Michigan lost its second game of the season two weeks ago on the road against Washington, falling to 2-1 in Big Ten games and now with virtually no margin for error in the playoff race.
Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.
The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.
So far, the models forecast a very close game between these Big Ten rivals.
Michigan is projected to win the game outright in the slight majority 59.6 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.
That leaves Illinois as the expected winner in the remaining 40.4 percent of sims.
In total, Michigan came out ahead in 11,920 of the index’s simulations of the game, while Illinois prevailed in the other 8,080 predictions.
And the index projects a very close game on the scoreboard, too.
Michigan is projected to be 3.8 points better than Illinois on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.
If so, that would be just enough for the Wolverines to cover the spread against the Illini.
That’s because Michigan is a 3 point favorite against Illinois, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.
FanDuel lists the total at 43.5 points for the game.
And it set the moneyline odds for Michigan at -155 and for Illinois at +135 to win outright.
A slight majority of bettors are giving Illinois the benefit of the doubt against Michigan, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.
53 percent of bets currently forecast the Illini will either win in an upset or keep the game within the narrow line.
And the other 47 percent of wagers expect the Wolverines will win the game and cover the spread.
Illinois is sixth among Big Ten teams with a 3.8 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and will win 7.7 games this season, according to the FPI’s metrics.
That model gives Michigan a 2 percent chance at the 12-team playoff and a win total prediction of 6.8 games this season.
Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.
Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.
Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.
First-place votes in parentheses
- Texas (56)
- Oregon (6)
- Penn State
- Ohio State
- Georgia
- Miami
- Alabama
- LSU
- Iowa State
- Clemson
- Tennessee
- Notre Dame
- BYU
- Texas A&M
- Boise State
- Indiana
- Kansas State
- Ole Miss
- Missouri
- Pittsburgh
- SMU
- Illinois
- Army
- Michigan
- Navy
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams
Follow College Football HQ: Bookmark | Rankings | Picks
Video: Bennett Stirtz evaluates performance after loss to Illinois
Bennett Stirtz meets with media after Iowa basketball’s 75-69 loss to Illinois.
IOWA CITY — For the third consecutive game, Mr. Forty Minutes — Iowa basketball’s Bennett Stirtz — found himself in foul trouble.
The Hawkeye senior thought he drew a charge, but officials called him for a block with 11 minutes, 36 seconds to go against No. 16 Illinois. And so, with four fouls, Iowa basketball coach Ben McCollum brought his star point guard to the bench with his team down 14 points.
After a quick 3, Illinois’ lead was up to 58-41. Not a thing was going right for Iowa.
But instead of wilting, Stirtz’s absence actually gave Iowa a lift.
Not because Iowa is a better team without its star. But because his supporting cast stopped looking for Stirtz to save Iowa — and looked for one another.
That, above all other things, should be the takeaway from what became No. 19 Iowa’s 75-69 loss to No. 16 Illinois on Jan. 11.
With Stirtz out, the 13,559 fans at Carver-Hawkeye Arena continued to match Iowa’s newfound energy. Tavion Banks soared through the air for a dunk to cut Illinois’ lead to 62-55. Tate Sage delivered a back-door cut and dunk to make it 62-57.
Stirtz waved his arms into the air from the Iowa bench as the noise came to a crescendo.
“We changed from playing with fear to fighting,” Stirtz would say afterward. “I’m proud of the guys for that.”
The Hawkeyes fell to 12-4 overall, 2-3 in the Big Ten Conference with a daunting trip to No. 5 Purdue (15-1, 5-0) on Jan. 14. This was their first home loss and first two-game losing streak of the McCollum era. A quick 21-5 deficit made this an uphill climb throughout.
“You’ve got to come ready,” McCollum said. “Not today.”
Video: Ben McCollum reacts to Iowa basketball’s loss to Illinois
Ben McCollum meets with media after Iowa basketball’s 75-69 loss to Illinois.
And that’s two straight games in which Iowa was completely flat at the beginning — and then played better without Stirtz for a stretch. The same thing happened in the first half at Minnesota, too, where Stirtz got two fouls and his teammates started playing better and even took the lead.
Sage scored six points in the Stirtz-less run against Illinois; Cooper Koch had eight, including two 3-pointers. What woke up Iowa?
“Cutting,” Illinois coach Brad Underwood said. “I thought Sage was tremendous in his cutting.”
In the 7:05 that Stirtz missed on Sunday, the Hawkeyes officially outscored Illinois (13-3, 4-1) by an 18-10 margin. He returned with Iowa down, 65-59, and 4:31 left.
“No, he’s not the problem,” McCollum said, answering a question about what fans might be thinking. “It’s that the floor shrinks when he comes off screens, and we’re not doing a good job of getting to the secondary actions after that.”
Let’s pause here for a little extra explanation.
In other words, in McCollum’s eyes, when Stirtz is drawing so much attention, his four teammates on the floor need to make opponents pay.
Stirtz did have six assists to go with this 12 points against Illinois, but he shot 5-for-17 from the floor, with a lot of those misses being forced attempts — especially late.
Iowa needs to be able to win without Stirtz being at his absolute best. And he certainly wasn’t his best Sunday. Stirtz missed a wide-open layup with 37 seconds that could’ve cut the gap to 71-69.
“Sometimes when you have a player of his caliber, you search for him a little bit too much, and it doesn’t naturally flow,” McCollum said. “And I think we probably searched for him too much, and then when you search for him, then all five guys shrink.”
McCollum elaborated by describing how Illinois puts five elite players on the floor, complimenting how they each make one another better at what they do.
“Those guys benefit from each other, if that makes sense, and so we’re not benefiting from each other,” McCollum said. “… Leverage each other, not just leverage one person. And that’s partly me, too, I’ve got to do a better job of, ‘OK, why is that not working?’ We will. We’re getting there.”
Stirtz was sick earlier this week at Minnesota, when he went scoreless in the first half but put up 21 points in the second in a 70-67 loss.
He is taking a lot on his shoulders right now, and defenses are giving him that kind of attention, too.
“They were throwing everyone at me,” Stirtz said.
Opponents know what they need to do to stop Iowa right now: Throw the kitchen sink at Stirtz.
“He’s really good,” Underwood said. “You’re not going to take everything away from him. More importantly, it’s making him guard the other end and making him work (on defense). Matchup-hunting was good for us, in this one.”
There you go, Ben McCollum and Hawkeye fans. Underwood gave you the general script on how to suffocate Iowa. Make Stirtz work hard on both ends of the floor, and maybe he’ll reach here and there on defense and get into foul trouble.
Minnesota capitalized on it. So did Illinois. It’s time for Iowa to adjust.
Now, this was a really good Illinois team. This was hardly an embarrassing Iowa loss.
But, as McCollum voiced in the 66-62 loss at Iowa State a month ago, he isn’t interested in moral victories like two straight comebacks that barely fell short.
Video: Cooper Koch on why Iowa got off to slow start vs. Illinois
Cooper Koch meets with media after Iowa basketball’s 75-69 loss to Illinois.
The crystalized lesson that the Hawkeyes must take from this loss is to take what they did without Stirtz … and play like that with Stirtz.
Then, this team can be really good, an NCAA Tournament team and maybe a threat to make a run.
Until they figure that out, frustrating losses will continue to add up. The Big Ten is relentless. After the Purdue trip comes a Jan. 17 visit to Indiana. Iowa could be 2-5 in conference play in just six days if it doesn’t pull off an upset.
McCollum did tweak his second-half lineup, looking for a spark. Starting center Cam Manyawu didn’t play a minute after halftime. Sage, a freshman, played all 20 second-half minutes.
Getting Banks back to full health will help. McCollum said the forward (who was Iowa’s best player against Illinois with 14 points, seven rebounds and five assists) lost 8-10 pounds over the past few days with an illness. Banks was replaced by Alvaro Folgueiras (eight points, eight rebounds) in the starting lineup.
Iowa is only 25% of the way through the conference season. But it needs to learn these lessons quickly and not let them linger, like they did in both games this past week.
“We’ve got to change something, because something’s not working,” Stirtz said. “It’s been a couple games where we haven’t started out with a lot of energy. It’s definitely going to need to change, and we’re going to need to it for the full 40.”
Hawkeyes columnist Chad Leistikow has served for 31 years with The Des Moines Register and USA TODAY Sports Network. Chad is the 2023 INA Iowa Sports Columnist of the Year and NSMA Co-Sportswriter of the Year in Iowa. Join Chad’s text-message group at HawkCentral.com/HawkeyesTexts. Follow @ChadLeistikow on X.
Iowa basketball (12-3, 2-2 Big Ten) welcomes in No. 16 Illinois (12-3, 3-1 Big Ten) to Carver-Hawkeye Arena in a top-25 conference tilt.
The 19th-ranked Hawkeyes are looking to get the taste of a frustrating road loss at Minnesota out of their mouths. Iowa trailed by as many as 14, but rallied back to take the lead in the game’s final two minutes. The Golden Gophers hit a go-ahead 3-pointer from Jaylen Crocker-Johnson and then watched as a series of potential game-tying Iowa threes wouldn’t drop in a final, frantic sequence from Williams Arena.
Illinois enters winners of four straight and six of their past seven. The Illini rolled past Rutgers on Thursday, 81-55.
Watch Iowa vs. Illinois
Iowa owns a 57-24 all-time record against Illinois in Iowa City, though the Illini have owned the series of late. Illinois has won four straight over Iowa and nine of the past 10. That stretch of success from the Illini comes on the heels of a five-game Iowa win streak in the series from 2018-20.
As tipoff approaches, here’s how and when Hawkeye fans can watch Iowa basketball vs. Illinois:
How to watch Iowa basketball vs. Illinois
TV: Fox
Tipoff Time: 11 a.m.
Iowa battles Illinois on Fox in its “Gold Out” game from Carver-Hawkeye Arena. Jason Benetti (play-by-play) will be joined by Steve Smith (color).
How to stream Iowa basketball vs. Illinois
Hawkeye fans can stream Iowa basketball vs. Illinois with Fubo, which offers a free trial to first-time subscribers.
Contact/Follow us @HawkeyesWire on X (formerly Twitter) and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Iowa news, notes and opinions. Follow Josh on X: @JoshOnHawks
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