Expect a progressive tax, higher education spending and a Bears stadium to be high on the agenda for Illinois state lawmakers.

Taxpayers have reason to worry as the second half of the 104th Illinois General Assembly begins on Jan. 13.

Typically, lawmakers file and pass fewer bills in the second year of the regular session. But based on the chaotic end to the 2025 regular session and the active veto session, lawmakers are likely to make some costly moves.

Issues to watch: a progressive tax, higher education spending, Tier 2 pensions, data centers, energy and a Chicago Bears stadium.

Issues to watch in 2026

While fewer bills are expected to make it to Pritzker’s desk in 2026, those that could impact taxpayers the most involve a progressive tax, higher education spending, Tier 2 pensions, data centers, energy and a Chicago Bears stadium.

Progressive tax

Illinois has always had a flat income tax. Yet in 2020, lawmakers attempted to amend the state constitution to permit a graduated-rate structure. That amendment would give lawmakers great power to start taxing retirees and raise rates on family farms and small businesses. Illinoisans rejected the amendment resoundingly.

Despite that clear signal from voters, lawmakers filed another bill in 2025 that would have started the amendment process. If passed by voters, that amendment would eliminate Illinois’ constitutional protection that requires when taxes are hiked, they be hiked on everyone so everyone can hold state lawmakers accountable. The bill died, but relentless lawmakers are trying again with a new bill filed during veto session that would let them divide and conquer taxpayers, one income group at a time.

Higher education spending

Illinois was ranked No. 1 for spending per student on higher education in 2024, paying more than double the national average because of declining enrollment, poorly structured finances, growing pension payments and bloated administration. Lawmakers must take a strategic, statewide approach to how it nurtures young people after high school by fixing university funding and broadening workforce training.

Tier 2 pensions

At the end of veto session, a bill increasing Tier 2 pension benefits was passed out of the Illinois House Executive Committee. Projected to cost the state $52.7 billion, the bill would make sweeping changes for pension systems across the state, increasing benefits for Illinois’ Tier 2 retirees hired after 2010.  Government unions are expected to push for boosted benefits during the new session.

Data centers, energy

Despite lifting the 40-year moratorium on nuclear energy at the end of veto session, “Illinois is running out of power.”

Gov. J.B. Pritzker has been touting a clean energy bill that was signed into law in 2021. But his mandate to eliminate coal and natural gas generation of electricity by 2050 may not be feasible. Natural gas and coal plants might be needed to fuel data centers.

While lifting the nuclear moratorium was a win for reliability and innovation, more state control and added regulations risk undoing those gains. Illinois should embrace policies that make energy cheaper, cleaner and more dependable through competition and regulatory restraint, not deeper political control.

Chicago Bears stadium

The Chicago Bears purchased the former Arlington Park Racetrack in 2023 for $197.2 million. Nearly three years later, the dream of a new stadium is elusive.

Needing state support to develop a new stadium the Bears’ lease at Solider Field expires in 2033, but it can be broken with a penalty.

A 2025 bill would have required teams to win at least 50% of their games in the past 3-in-5 seasons if they want taxpayer funds for a new stadium or to renovate an existing one.

Now, Bears President and CEO Kevin Warren has announced the team’s need to “expand our search and critically evaluate opportunities throughout the wider Chicagoland region, including Northwest Indiana” citing “no legislative partnership” and a desire for a “world-class stadium.” With that, Illinoisans can expect more political wrangling over a stadium in 2026.

Lawmakers historically pass fewer bills in the second half of session

The Illinois General Assembly operates on two-year sessions. Based on data going back to 2003, lawmakers tend to file and pass fewer bills in the second year.

On average, there have been 6,364 bills filed in the regular session of the first year compared to 3,445 bills filed in regular session of the second year. The trend is similar for how many bills are passed in the first year versus the second.

The first year of a legislative session sees an average of 633 bills passed by both chambers, while the second year sees an average of 451 bills passed.

With elections in November following the second year of session, state lawmakers are more likely to be judged for their actions and more cautious with the bills they file and approve. All Illinois House members and 39 of the 59 Illinois Senate seats will be decided by voters Nov. 3.

Based on two decades worth of trends, Pritzker should expect to see fewer than 400 bills cross his desk in 2026.

But with everything from public pensions to sports stadiums on the agenda for lawmakers this spring, the second half of the 104th Illinois General Assembly could get explosive in Springfield and expensive for taxpayers.