The improbable last-second victory No. 24 Illinois (8-3, 5-2 Big Ten) pulled off against Rutgers in Piscataway, New Jersey, on Saturday set off more ripple effects than just the celebrations of Illini fans across the country. We’re talking, of course, about ESPN’s CFP Predictor.

Between the Illini win and the wild Saturday across college football – highlighted by Oklahoma’s 24-3 obliteration of No. 7 Alabama, Florida’s upset of No. 9 Ole Miss 24-17 and both No. 15 Texas A&M and No. 16 Colorado falling to unranked opponents – Illinois still has a chance to make the 12-team playoff, according to ESPN.

That chance, however, is a 1,000-yard shot in the dark with a pop gun: a measly 0.3 percent probability. It’s a fever dream that would only be realized if the college football world was completely flipped on its head, and in several highly specific ways, over the next two weeks. As Saturday reminded us, anything is possible – but Illini fans would be advised not to hold their breath.

Yet with Illinois sitting at 8-3 – so close, yet so far away – it’s hard not to wonder what could have been.

Think back, for a moment, on the season up to this point. No one can fault the Illini for the loss to Penn State (currently ranked No. 4 in the AP poll) at Happy Valley or to Oregon (ranked No. 1 for a sixth straight week) in Eugene. But that home loss to unranked Minnesota? Well, that’s a different story.

The Gophers are a solid middle-of-the-road Big Ten team, but based on any metric or eye test that exists, they were eminently beatable by the Illini. Instead, they vanquished Illinois – and any legitimate hopes it had of making the CFP. 

But for the sake of argument, let’s just pretend quarterback Luke Altmyer didn’t commit that fumble and Illinois wound up finishing that late-game drive in the end zone – probably a touchdown pass to receiver Pat Bryant – and tacked on the two-point conversion before winning a thriller in overtime.

Maybe that’s simply too much magic for a single team to ask for in a single season. But if it had happened, the Illini would currently be 9-2 (6-2 Big Ten), with 4-7 Northwestern (2-6 Big Ten) up next. In this scenario, even given a victory next week, 10 wins would still leave Illinois on the outside of a Big Ten Championship looking in, and ineligible to clinch an automatic CFP bid.

But what about an at-large bid? Let’s compare apples to apples – or, in this case, our hypothetical 9-2 Illini squad to a few SEC teams with similar profiles.

Start with Alabama, which is fresh off its aforementioned 24-3 thrashing by unranked Oklahoma. The Tide benefit from the 11th-toughest schedule in the country, but with three losses, they have just a 37.4 percent chance of making the CFP.

Now consider Tennessee. The Volunteers are currently 9-2, and their strength of schedule ranks 21st in the nation (only five ahead of Illinois’). Arguably the best match for the What Could Have Been Illini, the Volunteers currently have a 76.8 percent chance of making the playoff.

Yet it’s foolish to think Illinois – even at 9-2 today and with a win over Northwestern next week – would be a shoo-in for the College Football Playoff. It’s just hard to imagine the committee justifying the inclusion of five Big Ten teams in a 12-team playoff – but it would have been interesting to learn just how close the Illini could have come.

Regardless, at 8-3, Illinois has put together one of its best seasons in recent memory and appears well-positioned to be in line for a top-tier non-CFP bowl, which could offer the Illini an opportunity to further legitimize their 2024 campaign. Even if it’s not everything it could have been, during this week of giving thanks, Illinois – and its fans – have one of the program’s best seasons in recent memory to be grateful for.

Instant Analysis: Illinois Wins 36-31 Thriller at Rutgers on Last-Second Score

WATCH: Illinois WR Pat Bryant Scores Game-Winning Touchdown

3 Key Stats from Illinois Football vs. Rutgers (Week 13)

There’s a new king of the mountain when it comes to side dishes at Thanksgiving, and Illinois’ pick is also the favorite of Americans.

This news comes via Campbell’s annual State of the Sides report, released each year ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday to reveal what side dishes Americans are pairing with their turkeys on the big day.

According to the report, stuffing/dressing overtook mashed potatoes as America’s favorite side dish, with sweet potatoes also moving up to the third spot in the ranking.

Green bean casserole checks in at No. 4, according to the ranking, with mac and cheese dropping from third to fifth this year.

According to Campbell’s, Illinois was one of 45 states that picked stuffing as their favorite side dish, with Iowa, California, Utah, Wyoming and West Virginia siding with mashed potatoes.

The data also revealed several other key findings, including that 56% of Americans would prefer eating side dishes over their turkey on Thanksgiving. Roughly 4-of-10 Americans would also be content with having a plate made up of nothing but sides, according to the study.

Perhaps most importantly if you’re heading to a gathering this holiday season, 99% of Americans say they help to cook part of the Thanksgiving meal if they’re attending a gathering.

The dream postseason scenario was there for Rutgers … until it vanished in heartbreaking fashion.

Illinois not only sent Rutgers to one of its most-devastating losses of this century Saturday, it all but guaranteed Rutgers will not play in one of the Big Ten’s top-tier bowl games, too. With so much within grasp, including a program-defining victory, the ultimate prize was playing into position to earn a berth in Cheez-It Citrus Bowl.

Citrus Bowl scouts sat in the press box at SHI Stadium — and loved everything they saw — right up until the end when No. 24 Illinois stunned Rutgers with a miraculous, game-winning touchdown catch and run by senior Pat Bryant, which put the Illini over the top for a 38-31 victory.

What did the loss do to Rutgers and its postseason fate? With the loss, Rutgers fell right back into the middle of the Big Ten standings. After Saturday, Illinois and Iowa separated themselves from that pack. Rutgers, meanwhile, is now solidly in the thick of the muck with five other teams jostling for postseason positioning with one game remaining.

So with that uncertainty, where might the Scarlet Knights end up? Here’s a look at where things currently stand and what’s available.

Big Ten bowls

These seven games are listed in order of ranking, meaning the Cheez-It Citrus Bowl will land the top-ranked Big Ten team that does not qualify for the CFP. The selection process then flows downward for the next six selections. It should be noted there are “variety clauses” to ensure new teams appear in each bowl in two to three years depending on the bowl.

It’s also important to remember, the conference’s four newcomers — No. 1 Oregon, Washington, UCLA and USC — are not eligible for the seven games with Big Ten ties. The newcomers who achieve bowl eligibility and do not qualify for the College Football Playoff will be selected from the former Pac-12′s “legacy pool,” a list of six games for teams that played in the conference in 2023.

Where things stand

Three games to watch

Assuming Indiana makes the College Football Playoff, these three games will have the biggest impact on Rutgers’ selection. Conveniently, they will all be played before the Scarlet Knights take the field against Michigan State on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. in East Lansing.

Minnesota at Wisconsin, Friday at noon: Minnesota could knock Wisconsin out of the picture, which would be good news for Rutgers and narrow the field. In the process, Minnesota might become a more attractive selection at 7-5 — even though Rutgers owns the head-to-head win. If Wisconsin win, it really muddles the picture.

Nebraska at Iowa, Friday at 7:30 p.m.: Iowa would be a heavy favorite for the ReliaQuest Bowl with a win. It would also keep Nebraska behind Rutgers in the standings if the Scarlet Knights win at Michigan State.

Michigan at Ohio State, Saturday at noon: Michigan will be a big underdog, but even with a loss a 6-6 Michigan team might be a more attractive selection than Rutgers.

Even with a win, Rutgers can’t theoretically play its way out of the muck. If the best-case scenario is the Duke’s Mayo or Music City Bowl, the committees will need to evaluate Rutgers as a better pick than Minnesota, Michigan, Nebraska or Wisconsin. That may be a long shot but not impossible.

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Patrick Lanni may be reached at planni@njadvancemedia.com.