Illinois energy providers are projected to face power shortfalls within the next decade as demand increases amid a transition away from fossil fuel power plants, a new report found.

The report anticipates accelerating energy demand, largely from data centers coming online. That demand, along with retirement of many coal, gas and oil units, and increasing development constraints could strain the state’s utilities and regional transmission organizations, PJM Interconnection and the Midcontinent Independent System Operator, according to the report.

Plus, consumers are likely to see prices continue to rise as demand does.

The report, compiled by Illinois Power Agency, Illinois Commerce Commission and Illinois Environmental Protection Agency, is required by the Climate and Equitable Jobs Act (CEJA) that Governor J.B. Pritzker signed into law in September 2021.

Per CEJA, the state is required to undergo a Resource Adequacy Study that assesses its progress toward renewable energy, green hydrogen technologies, emissions reduction goals, and its current and project status of electric resource adequacy and reliability throughout the state, with proposed solutions for any shortfalls the study finds.

The different mechanisms and entities that supply energy across Illinois after the state’s deregulation and restructuring of the electricity industry in the late 1990’s and early 2000s contribute to challenges in managing resource adequacy in the future.

With different entities focusing on serving the needs of its immediate customers, the development of a plan for long-term resource adequacy needs is more difficult than if entities were working in concert with each other, according to the report.

Though Illinois zones are considered “resource adequate” today, sources of energy across Illinois are becoming increasingly constrained. Unless new capacity resources are developed, energy capacity shortfalls could be seen in Illinois as early as 2029, the report found.

Data centers are the primary driver of growth in the latest forecasts, the report states, with growth projections at levels “well above those observed in either market over the past twenty years.”

Combined with an “aging fleet of coal and gas generators,” the growth from data centers is “likely to pose significant challenges for the reliability of both systems,” the report stated.

Rapid, concentrated growth from data center development, in addition to growth from residential and commercial customers, is projected to drive growth in resource adequacy targets for both PJM and MISO between 2025 and 2030.

PJM is expected to experience a capacity shortfall beginning in 2029, with the deficit projected to widen in subsequent years if left unabated. MISO is resource adequate through 2030, though a shortfall is projected to emerge in 2031 and grow from there.

Though Illinois has long been known as an exporter of electricity, Northern Illinois will begin to import power in 2030 as the area served by Commonwealth Edison is projected to see a 24% increase in demand for power, according to the report.

MISO, which services downstate Illinois, will meet its zonal requirements through 2035 as a more modest increase of only 11% is expected between 2025 and 2030, though reliance on imports after that is possible.

In addition to the credible risks to reliability, rising demand means already rising consumer cost will continue to trend upward over the next decade.

Utility customers in Illinois reported increasing costs on their electricity bills earlier this year, with some saying their payments have doubled.

When ComEd bills increased an average of 10% in June after a capacity charge increase, PJM told NBC Chicago “higher prices reflect the fact that electricity supply is decreasing while demand is increasing.” 

The latest PJM and MISO auctions each set record high capacity prices, which will incentivize new resource development and retention of existing generation. However, the price signal is also going to increase costs for consumers, the report states.  

Sarah Moskowitz, Executive Director of Citizens Utility Board — a nonprofit that advocates for utility consumers in Illinois — said the report “makes clear the need to confront these challenges head-on and remain firmly committed to keeping the lights on at prices we can all afford.”

The report also “underscores the urgency” for the implementation of the Clean and Reliable Grid Affordability Act (CRGA), that was passed earlier this year to address the imbalance of supply and demand for energy in Illinois and to pass additional reforms on data centers.

“Across the country, our energy systems are facing new pressures, but for years, consumer advocates have sounded the alarm about policy shortcomings from the regional power grid operators, including unacceptable delays in connecting clean and affordable resources to the power grid,” Moskowtiz said. “Illinois’ strong energy policy gives the state a blueprint to tackle our resource adequacy challenges.”

The Illinois Clean Jobs Coalition also pointed to the CRGA as an important step to addressing the projected shortfalls, however, passing “commonsense guardrails for data centers” is “the next critical step” to protecting Illinois’ ability to meet energy demands in the future.

“ICJC looks forward to working with legislative leaders and stakeholders in the spring legislative session to ensure data center developers, not Illinois consumers, pay for the disproportionate energy burden big tech is bringing to our power grid and keep in line with Illinois’ national leadership on climate by powering these facilities with clean energy,” the organization said in a statement.

Clean Energy Choice Coalition Executive Director Tom Cullerton said while the organization is in support of decarbonization and the state’s climate ambitions, “the Resource Adequacy Study makes clear that policy-driven shutdowns of reliable energy generation, before replacement resources are ready, will drive higher costs within this decade and push Illinois toward a less reliable system while putting skilled energy jobs at risk.”

As mandated by the CRGA, Illinois will begin an Integrated Resource Plan next year, an energy planning tool that will help the state account for the challenges outlined in the report and develop a strategy for moving forward. The IRP process is projected to take place throughout 2026 and 2027, according to the report.