Summary: A new study has used machine learning to identify the key predictors of physical activity adherence, analyzing data from nearly 12,000 individuals. The research found that time spent sitting, gender, and education level were the strongest indicators of whether someone met weekly exercise guidelines.
By training models on lifestyle, demographic, and health survey data, researchers could predict exercise habits more flexibly than traditional approaches. These insights could inform more effective fitness recommendations and public health strategies tailored to individual needs.
Key Facts:
Top Predictors: Sedentary time, gender, and education level were the most consistent predictors of exercise adherence.
Study Scope: Researchers used machine learning on data from 11,683 participants in a national health survey.
Potential Impact: Findings could improve personalized workout plans and inform health policy.
Source: University of Mississippi
Sticking to an exercise routine is a challenge many people face. But a University of Mississippi research team is using machine learning to uncover what keeps individuals committed to their workouts.
The team – Seungbak Lee and Ju-Pil Choe, both doctoral students in physical education, and Minsoo Kang, professor of sport analytics in the Department of Health, Exercise Science and Recreation Management – hopes to predict whether a person is meeting physical activity guidelines based on their body measurements, demographics and lifestyle.
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Machine learning doesn’t have those limits, so it can find patterns with greater flexibility. Credit: Neuroscience News
They have examined data from about 30,000 surveys. To quickly sort through such a huge data set, they’ve turned to machine learning, a way of using computers to identify patterns and make predictions based on the information.
The group’s results, published in the Nature Portfolio journal Scientific Reports are timely, Kang said
“Physical activity adherence to the guidelines is a public health concern because of its relationship to disease prevention and overall health patterns,” he said.
“We wanted to use advanced data analytic techniques, like machine learning, to predict this behavior.”
The Office of Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, part of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, suggests that adults should aim for at least 150 minutes of moderate exercise, or 75 minutes of vigorous exercise, each week as part of a healthy lifestyle.
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Research shows that the average American spends just two hours per week on physical activity – half of the four hours recommended by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Lee, Choe and Kang used public data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, a government-sponsored survey, covering 2009-18.
“We aimed to use machine learning to predict whether people follow physical activity guidelines based on questionnaire data, and find the best combination of variables for accurate predictions,” said Choe, the study’s lead author.
“Demographic variables such as gender, age, race, educational status, marital status and income, along with anthropometric measures like BMI and waist circumference, were considered.”
The researchers also considered lifestyle factors including alcohol consumption, smoking, employment, sleep patterns and sedentary behavior to understand their impact on a person’s physical activity, he said.
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The results showed that three key factors – how much time someone spends sitting, their gender, and their education level – showed up consistently in all the top-performing models that predict exercise habits, even though each model identified different variables as important.
According to Choe, these factors are especially important for understanding who is more likely to stay active and socially connected, and they could help guide future health recommendations.
“I expected that factors like gender, BMI, race or age would be important for our prediction model, but I was surprised by how significant educational status was,” he said. “While factors like gender, BMI and age are more innate to the body, educational status is an external factor.”
During the analysis, the researchers excluded data from people with certain diseases and responses missing physical activity data. That culled the relevant data to 11,683 participants.
The researchers say machine learning gives them more freedom to study the data. Older methods expect things to follow a straight-line pattern, and they don’t work well when some pieces of information are too similar.
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Machine learning doesn’t have those limits, so it can find patterns with greater flexibility.
“One limitation of our study was using subjectively measured physical activity data, where participants recalled their activity from memory,” Choe said.
“People tend to overestimate their physical activity when using questionnaires, so more accurate, objective data would improve the study’s reliability.”
Because of this, the researchers say they could use a similar method for future research in this area, but explore different factors, including dietary supplements use, using more machine learning algorithms or relying on objective data instead of self-reported information.
That could help trainers and fitness consultants produce workout regimens that people can actually stick with for the long haul.
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About this AI and exercise research news
Author: Clara Turnage Source: University of Mississippi Contact: Clara Turnage – University of Mississippi Image: The image is credited to Neuroscience News
Original Research: Open access. “Machine learning modeling for predicting adherence to physical activity guideline” by Seungbak Lee et al. Scientific Reports
Abstract
Machine learning modeling for predicting adherence to physical activity guideline
This study aims to create predictive models for PA guidelines by using ML and examine the critical determinants influencing adherence to the PA guidelines. 11,638 entries from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey were analyzed.
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Variables were categorized into demographic, anthropometric, and lifestyle categories. 18 prediction models were created by 6 ML algorithms and evaluated via accuracy, F1 score, and area under the curve (AUC).
Additionally, we employed permutation feature importance (PFI) to assess the variable significance in each model.
The decision tree using all variables emerged as the most effective method in the prediction for PA guidelines (accuracy = 0.705, F1 score = 0.819, and AUC = 0.542).
Based on the PFI, sedentary behavior, age, gender, and educational status were the most important variables.
These results highlight the possibilities of using data-driven methods with ML in PA research.
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Our analysis also identified crucial variables, providing valuable insights for targeted interventions aimed at enhancing individuals’ adherence to PA guidelines.
The sun is a welcome addition to our exercise routines come summer – but the novelty of a sunny run or hike can quickly wear off as the temperature climbs. With heatwaves and record-breaking temperatures already this year, it’s important to know the best time to exercise in the heat for the weeks ahead.
Obviously, if you don’t like the heat and would rather be inside, then you can exercise in an air-conditioned gym or studio at any time of day. A good swimming workout is another way to stay cool. However, if you enjoy running, hiking, cycling, or a garden strength training workout, it makes sense to choose the coolest times of day. In the peak of the summer, this is before 10 am and after 5 pm, but the earlier (or later) you can go, the better.
The body reacts differently in the heat, making exercise above 20°C degrees feel harder, even if you’re doing the same workout you did in the cooler months. As the temperature climbs, blood vessels dilate to push blood towards the surface of the skin to cool it down, which means there is less in the muscles. This means your heart has to work harder and beat faster.
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You also naturally sweat more, which is the body’s way of cooling down. However, important micronutrients called electrolytes are lost in sweat, and if they aren’t replenished (through hydrating foods or electrolyte supplements), it can lead to lower blood volume, triggering symptoms like fatigue, rapid heart rate, and dizziness that extend beyond your workout.
As well as checking the day’s top temperature, you should check the heat index. This indicates how humid it can be, which can be more of a problem than the warmth and can leave you sticky and sweaty before you’ve even pulled on your running shoes.
With that in mind, Brian Maiorano, coach liaison for sports-tech company CORE, has some tips for exercising in the heat. “When the weather begins to really heat up, these are the best ways to train during a heatwave, and to really stay safe,” he says.
Don’t be afraid to sweat: You can gradually adapt to the heat within 4 to 5 days by raising your core temperature in a controlled way. Top athletes call this ‘heat training’, and it’s very effective if you’re careful to not overcook yourself.
Stay hydrated: As well as drinking water, you can douse your head and torso in it to stay cool.
Lower your intensity during the heat: Monitor your heart rate and stick to zone 2 if you’re exercising in the heat. This is 60 to 70% of your maximum heart rate (220 minus your age), and stop at any signs of dizziness, nausea, or headache.
Choose when to do your most vigorous training: During intense sessions, you don’t want the additional stress of heat, so Brian recommends doing it in climate-controlled conditions (like switching your run to a treadmill workout) or choosing the best time to exercise in the heat.
Don’t spend the whole day in an air-conditioned room: “Too much time enjoying the cool air can make you miserable when you are exposed to heat,” says Brian.
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Kylie Minogue has stayed active her whole life, but, refreshingly, she doesn’t follow a punishingly strict routine to stay fit.
‘I wish I was one of those women who do their exercises first thing in the morning, or run straight to the fitness studio as soon as they get up,’ she told Star Magazine. ‘But unfortunately, I’m just not that disciplined!’
Instead, the ‘I Should Be So Lucky’ singer partly relies on her hectic schedue to keep her moving. ‘I don’t really work out, but I’m constantly on the go,’ she told Express.
‘My guilty confession is that there isn’t [a routine]!…I think I stay in shape with an active (read, exhausting!) lifestyle,’ she continued on Reddit. ‘My fitness is really sporadic. I have to thank my mum for good genes.’
Kylie Minogue’s go-to exercises
Despite her self-professed low-key approach, the global multi-platinum recording artist incorporates several workout methods into her day, preferring mainly low-impact and moderate-intensity exercise.
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‘I do Pilates,’ she continued to Star. But she’s careful to keep things balanced. ‘I don’t overdo it,’ she clarified.
‘I like to at the very least do 15 minutes on the Yoga Studio app. I know how to do it without the app but the tone of the woman’s voice and that it’s timed, it goes by so quickly,’ she told WSJ. ‘Then I feel like that’s done and I feel good.’
Often, her exercise of choice also depends on what equipment is available.
‘If there’s a treadmill nearby, I like to do that. We say in my family, “Minogues don’t run.” None of us run. But we like to walk, so that works for me,’ she added. ‘If I’m somewhere where there’s Pilates, I love that.’
Workouts that provide holistic physical and mental benefits are often a favourite.
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‘I’ve also tried Gyrotonics; that was really fun,’ she continued, referring to the gymnastics-and-swimming-inspired movement system developed by Julia Horvath in the 80s. Designed to decompress the body, build strength and flexibility, and improve posture, it’s increasingly being adopted by Olympic athletes and celebrities alike.
‘I loved aerobics and I used to do Callanetics,’ she added to Express. Created by classical ballet-trained Callan Pinckney around 40 years ago, Callanetics uses ‘small, precise pulsing movements’ to ‘activate muscles’. ‘I would travel everywhere with this home workout on a VHS tape and put it on in hotel rooms,’ Kylie revealed.
However, being the ‘Princess of Pop’ does mean that the physical demands are considerable, and often her endurance, coordination and overall fitness are put to the test when she’s on stage.
‘I would say my ultimate workout is being on tour. I’m never as fit as when I’m on tour, so I can’t wait to tour again. My body needs it.’
One of our most frequently asked questions here at Women’s Health? How to build muscle and burn fat at the same time. So, we asked superstar trainer Oyinda Okunowo exactly how to do it. In this 4-week plan – created exclusively for Women’s Health COLLECTIVE members – you’ll get the workouts and nutrition guidance needed to help you on your way to better body composition. Tap the link below to unlock 14 days of free access to Oyinda’s plan and start training today.
Exercise played a pivotal part in Alison Hammond, 51, losing 11 stone. The This Morning presenter hired personal trainer Ellis Gatfield five years ago, and while introducing regular strength training helped her hit her goal, there were a few fitness habits she was also required to quit.
Below, Gatfield shares exactly what she stopped doing, how doing so helped her lose weight and build muscle and her full weekly workout routine.
A quick caveat: sustainable weight loss isn’t driven by exercise or nutrition alone. Movement helps preserve muscle, support metabolic health and improve how your body uses energy, but what you eat still matters. The most effective approach combines smart training with nourishing, realistic nutrition habits you can maintain long term.
@luimancini//Instagram
1. She stopped doing long treadmill sessions
Gatfield says: ‘She never particularly enjoyed traditional cardio, so instead of forcing long treadmill sessions, I focused on raising her heart rate through resistance training performed in a circuit format, using mainly compound movements. This allowed her to get the cardiovascular benefits while also building strength and shaping her body. The biggest mistake from her training before was believing that exercise had to mean long, boring cardio sessions to lose weight. That mindset made training feel like a chore rather than something to enjoy.’
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2. She stopped forcing exercise she didn’t enjoy
Gatfield says: ‘Once we shifted to a style of training she genuinely liked, everything became easier. Training stopped feeling forced, consistency improved naturally, and results followed. Enjoyment is often the missing piece in successful weight loss and it’s something I prioritise with all my clients.
‘Strength training played a huge role in Alison’s weight loss because it allowed her to burn calories, build lean muscle, and improve her metabolism, without relying on long or exhausting cardio sessions. Resistance-based circuits kept her heart rate elevated while also improving strength and body composition which is key for long term fat loss.
‘Just as importantly, she genuinely enjoyed this style of training. She loved being able to come in, work hard for 30 minutes, feel accomplished, and get on with her day. That enjoyment made consistency easy, and consistency is where results come from.
‘With Alison, the priority was keeping training effective, enjoyable, and realistic around her schedule. Sessions were always kept to around 30 minutes, which meant they were easy to commit to and never felt overwhelming.’
3. She stopped skipping rest days
Gatfield says: ‘Rest was equally essential [to her results]. Scheduled recovery days helped regulate stress, reduce fatigue, and allow her body to adapt and improve. That balance between training and recovery meant she could show up strong, train with intent, and sustain results long term.
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‘For most women, especially those new to resistance training, I’d recommend two-three sessions per week. The focus should always be on learning proper technique, moving well, and recovering properly. More isn’t always better – consistency and quality matter far more.’
Alison Hammond’s weekly workout schedule
According to Gatfield, a typical week in workouts for Alison included:
Monday: 30-minute resistance circuit
Tuesday: 30-minute boxing session
Wednesday: rest or low-intensity walk
Thursday: 30-minute kettlebell circuit
Friday: 30-minute boxing session
Saturday: rest or low-intensity walk
Sunday: rest
One of our most frequently asked questions here at Women’s Health? How to build muscle and burn fat at the same time. So, we asked superstar trainer Oyinda Okunowo exactly how to do it. In this 4-week plan – created exclusively for Women’s Health COLLECTIVE members – you’ll get the workouts and nutrition guidance needed to help you on your way to better body composition. Tap the link below to unlock 14 days of free access to Oyinda’s plan and start training today.
Get the plan
As Women’s Health UK’s fitness director and a qualified Pilates and yoga instructor, Bridie Wilkins has been passionately reporting on exercise, health and nutrition since the start of her decade-long career in journalism.
After earning a first-class degree in journalism and NCTJ accreditation, she secured her first role at Look Magazine, where she launched the magazine’s health and fitness column, Look Fit, before going on to become Health and Fitness writer at HELLO!
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Since, she has written for Stylist, Glamour, Cosmopolitan, Marie Claire, Elle, The Metro, Runner’s World and Red. Today, she oversees all fitness content across Women’s Health online and in print, spearheading leading cross-platform franchises, such as ‘Fit At Any Age’, which showcases the women proving that age is no barrier to exercise.
She has also represented the brand on BBC Radio London, plus various podcasts and Substacks – all with the aim to encourage more women to exercise and show them how. Outside of work, find her trying the latest Pilates studio, testing her VO2 max for fun (TY, Oura), or posting workouts on Instagram.
