In the context of inflation, was the Federal Reserve late to ? Most would agree the answer is yes.
But the Fed doesn’t have just one mandate of promoting price stability. It has a of promoting both price stability and maximum employment.
Taking employment into consideration, that the Fed was late to tighten monetary policy.
I can’t pinpoint exactly when the calls to tighten began when inflation was heating up three years ago. But we can all agree that these calls grew loudest ahead of the .
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The core PCE price index — the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation — was at a high of 5.5% in March 2022. Clearly, inflation was a problem.
That same month, the unemployment rate was 3.6%, the lowest level since before the pandemic.
The unemployment rate effectively bottomed that month, mostly trending sideways as inflation rates cooled.
What if the Fed acted earlier?
I generally don’t like considering counterfactual scenarios because the world is complex, and no one can say with certainty what would’ve actually happened in the past if certain things had gone differently. But since we continue to hear folks casually say that we would’ve been better off if the Fed acted earlier, I’ll indulge in the thought exercise.
What if the Fed hiked rates at its January 2022 meeting? Maybe our inflation mess would’ve ended a little sooner. But the unemployment rate was higher at 4%. Would we have been okay with the unemployment rate trending at 4%? Maybe.
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What if we went back a little further, and the Fed hiked rates at its October/November 2021 meeting? The core PCE price index was increasing at about a 4.5% rate. Price-sensitive consumers would’ve been much happier to see inflation top out there. But the unemployment rate was higher at about 4.5%. Does the cost of keeping unemployment almost a full percentage point higher justify the benefit of keeping prices a bit cooler?
What if the Fed moved even sooner when the unemployment rate was even higher?
The big picture
Here’s my point: While it’s fair to argue the Fed hiked rates too late in the context of inflation, I don’t think it’s fair to argue they made a mistake — especially when you consider the goals of monetary policy in their entirety, which include promoting maximum employment.
While high inflation is a headache for consumers, at least some of it was the result of newly employed people finally being able to afford to purchase goods and services.
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Like I said before, the world is complex. So who knows? Maybe there’s a scenario where the Fed tightened monetary policy sooner and the unemployment rate continued to fall anyway as inflation cooled.
But the likely outcome of tighter monetary policy earlier in this economic cycle would have been unemployment bottoming at a higher level than what we’ve experienced.
FILE PHOTO: Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell leaves after a news conference at the Federal Reserve Building in Washington, U.S., December 14, 2022. REUTERS/Evelyn Hockstein/File Photo (Reuters / Reuters)
I’m not suggesting the Fed was right or wrong to adjust monetary policy when it did. I’m just saying that you cannot talk about how monetary policy actions affect inflation without addressing how they affect employment.
How about instead of proclaiming that the Fed was late in the context of inflation — which is not a controversial view — we instead tackle the of how we balance the tradeoff between price stability and employment. How many people is it okay to leave unemployed if it means improving price stability?
The state of play
Over the past two and a half years, . And while the unemployment rate remains low by historical standards, it has been .
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Last month when the unemployment rate was 4.3%, : “We do not seek or welcome further cooling in labor market conditions.“
“The time has come for policy to adjust,” he . It was one of the more explicit signals that rate cuts would begin soon, a development most market participants welcome.
Of course, there are also voices brushing off the rise in unemployment as they argue that the Fed should wait longer until inflation is defeated more definitively.
Reviewing the macro crosscurrents
There were a few notable data points and macroeconomic developments from last week to consider:
The labor market continues to add jobs. According to the report released Friday, U.S. employers added 142,000 jobs in August. It was the 44th straight month of gains, reaffirming an economy with growing demand for labor.
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Total payroll employment is at a record 158.8 million jobs, up 6.4 million from the prepandemic high.
The unemployment rate — that is, the number of workers who identify as unemployed as a percentage of the civilian labor force — declined to 4.2% during the month. While it continues to hover near 50-year lows, the metric is near its highest level since October 2021.
While the major metrics continue to reflect job growth and low unemployment, the labor market isn’t as hot as it used to be.
Wage growth ticks up. Average hourly earnings rose by 0.4% month-over-month in August, up from the 0.2% pace in July. On a year-over-year basis, this metric is up 3.8%, near the lowest rate since June 2021.
Job openings fall. According to the , employers had 7.76 million job openings in July, down from 7.91 million in June. While this remains slightly above prepandemic levels, it’s from the March 2022 high of 12.18 million.
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During the period, there were 7.16 million unemployed people — meaning there were 1.07 job openings per unemployed person. Once a sign of , this telling metric is now below prepandemic levels.
Layoffs remain depressed. Employers laid off 1.76 million people in July. While challenging for all those affected, this figure represents just 1.1% of total employment. This metric continues to trend near pre-pandemic low levels.
Hiring activity continues to be much higher than layoff activity. During the month, employers hired 5.52 million people, up from 5.25 million in June.
People are quitting less. In July, 3.28 million workers quit their jobs. This represents 2.1% of the workforce. While up from the prior month, it remains below the prepandemic trend.
A low quits rate could mean a number of things: more people are satisfied with their job; workers have fewer outside job opportunities; wage growth is cooling; productivity will improve as fewer people are entering new unfamiliar roles.
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Labor productivity inches up. From the : “Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased 2.5% in the second quarter of 2024… as output increased 3.5 percent and hours worked increased 1.0%. … From the same quarter a year ago, nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased 2.7%.”
Unemployment claims ticked lower. declined to 227,000 during the week ending August 31, down from 232,000 the week prior. While this metric continues to be at levels historically associated with economic growth, recent prints have been trending higher.
Card spending data is stable. From Bank of America: “Total card spending per household was up 2.8% y/y in week ending Aug 31, according to BAC aggregated credit & debit card data. This increase was likely driven by the change in the timing of Labor Day compared to last year (09/02/24 versus 09/04/24). Within sectors, furniture saw the biggest increase since last week, while entertainment showed the largest decline.”
Gas prices fall. From : “After idling over the Labor Day weekend, the national average for a gallon of gas resumed its pace of daily declines by falling six cents since last week to $3.30. Key contributors are low gas demand and the plunging cost of oil, which is struggling to stay above $70 a barrel.”
Mortgage rates hold steady. According to , the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage stood at 6.35% this week. From Freddie Mac: “Even though rates have come down over the summer, home sales have been lackluster. On the refinance side however, homeowners who bought in recent years are taking advantage of declining mortgage rates in order to lower their monthly payments.”
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There are in the U.S., of which 86 million are and of which are . Of those carrying mortgage debt, almost all have , and most of those mortgages before rates surged from 2021 lows. All of this is to say: Most homeowners are not particularly sensitive to movements in home prices or mortgage rates.
Construction spending ticks lower. declined 0.3% to an annual rate of $2.16 trillion in July.
Services surveys look up. From S&P Global’s : “An improvement in the headline services PMI to its highest for nearly two-and-a-half years provides further encouraging evidence that the US economy is enjoying robust economic growth in the third quarter, adding to signs of a ‘soft landing’. The faster service sector expansion means the PMI surveys are signalling GDP growth of 2-2.5% in the third quarter. At the same time, the August survey data signaled a further cooling of selling price inflation, notably in the service sector, which has now eased close to the average seen prior to the pandemic and a level consistent with the Fed’s 2% inflation target.”
Manufacturing surveys don’t look great. From S&P Global’s : “A further downward lurch in the PMI points to the manufacturing sector acting as an increased drag on the economy midway through the third quarter. Forward-looking indicators suggest this drag could intensify in the coming months. Slower than expected sales are causing warehouses to fill with unsold stock, and a dearth of new orders has prompted factories to cut production for the first time since January. Producers are also reducing payroll numbers for the first time this year and buying fewer inputs amid concerns about excess capacity.”
Similarly, the ISM’s signaled contraction in the industry.
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Keep in mind that during times of perceived stress, soft survey data tends to be more exaggerated than hard data.
Factory orders jump. According to the , new orders for manufactured goods rose 5% to $592.1 billion in July.
Key recession indicators point to growth. Here’s a from economist Justin Wolfers tracking the trajectory of key measures of economic activity.
Near-term GDP growth estimates remain positive. The sees real GDP growth climbing at a 2.1% rate in Q3.
Putting it all together
We continue to get evidence that we are experiencing a where inflation cools to manageable levels .
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This comes as the Federal Reserve continues to employ very tight monetary policy in its . Though, with inflation rates having from their 2022 highs, the Fed has taken a less hawkish tone in , even signaling that .
It would take monetary policy as being loose, which means we should be prepared for relatively tight financial conditions (e.g., higher interest rates, tighter lending standards, and lower stock valuations) to linger. All this means for the time being, and the risk the into a recession will be relatively elevated.
At the same time, we also know that stocks are discounting mechanisms — meaning that .
Also, it’s important to remember that while recession risks may be elevated, . Unemployed people are , and those with jobs are getting raises.
Similarly, as many corporations . Even as the threat of higher debt servicing costs looms, give corporations room to absorb higher costs.
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At this point, any given that the .
And as always, should remember that and are just when you enter the stock market with the aim of generating long-term returns. While , the long-run outlook for stocks .
Two of Chicago’s most pivotal but challenging undeveloped sites — Foundry Park on the North Side and the vacant South Loop parcel known as The 78 — moved forward in a big way Wednesday before the City Council adjourned for a summer recess.
Mayor Brandon Johnson introduced a $201.6 million tax increment financing subsidy for JDL Development’s scaled back vision for North Side industrial land along the Chicago River that once was supposed to be home to the Lincoln Yards megaproject.
And despite a slew of concerns from Council members, the full Council approved a $425 million TIF for The 78, a reference to Chicago’s unofficial 78th community area. The subsidy will bankroll public improvements needed for the South Loop development, anchored by a $750 million soccer stadium privately financed by Chicago Fire billionaire owner Joe Mansueto.
Downtown Ald. Bill Conway (34th), whose adjacent TIF is being raided to help The 78, again refused to go along with the $250.1 million piece of the infrastructure package that will primarily be used to build a 1,200-space parking garage. The $216 million garage will serve as the “podium” for an open-air plaza and future high-rise development on the air rights above the garage.
Referring to the Bears’ long-running stadium saga, Conway said Wednesday he appreciates the Fire “not trying to move to Hammond, Indiana, and become the Hammond Sparks.” But he said he “cannot look the taxpayers in the eye and tell them” he supported spending “$250 million to build a stadium parking garage and plaza.”
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Finance Chair Pat Dowell, whose 3rd Ward includes The 78, has argued that the podium “brings the site to grade at Roosevelt Road” and is the key to “unlocking the site from the isolation that has stalled every previous development proposal.”
Deputy Planning Commissioner Jeff Cohen made that same point Wednesday, with a new wrinkle.
“The idea here is to incorporate that garage into the podium,” Cohen said. “It’s addressing a design and development plan that allows for all of the land within The 78 to be open for investment, rather than having to have either temporary or permanent surface parking lots to accommodate the car traffic.”
An artist’s rendering of the planned Chicago Fire soccer stadium at The 78 in the South Loop.
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The $201.6 million subsidy proposed for Foundry Park pales by comparison to the $1.3 billion that former Mayor Rahm Emanuel once proposed for Lincoln Yards. That massive subsidy became a political lightning rod, with the avalanche of criticism led by the Chicago Teachers Union and then-union organizer Brandon Johnson.
The $201.6 million subsidy that Johnson introduced at Wednesday’s Council meeting is more likely to be criticized for being too little.
It will support just over 25% of the $800 million worth of roads, bridges, utilities and mass transit improvements that 2nd Ward Ald. Brian Hopkins has said were mandated as part of the Lincoln Yards plan.
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Foundry Park developer Jim Letchinger acknowledged that there is “other infrastructure that the neighborhood would like to see done that is not possible right now.”
But Letchinger added it’s a start that includes the long-promised extension of the popular 606 Trail. “If you don’t start with something that’s achievable, you can’t achieve anything.”
“We have a plan to actually start building and creating revenue right away in conjunction with building our infrastructure … A lot of parks. Massive riverwalk. Ten acres of public open space. Very usable, very engaging,” Letchinger said Wednesday.
“As we continue to build, since we’re not using anywhere near all the increment that we’re creating, the other increment can go toward other projects that the neighborhood would like to see — whether it’s to build a bridge or fixing Elston Avenue, or anything else that they’re anxious about,” he said.
Public improvements promised to residents, but not covered by the $201.6 million subsidy, include another bridge crossing the Chicago River and a realignment of Elston Avenue, which Letchinger called a positive move in the long run, but a “massive undertaking” complicated by cost and property control.
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“No private developer can realign Elston. It’s impossible. The city is the only one that can do that, and they’re working on it. There’s plans for it. But it will take a very long time,” Lechtinger said.
Ald. Scott Waguespack (32nd) said there is “one bridge that a lot of people still want,” but it goes through private properties owned by Ozinga Ready Mix Concrete and several other owners.
“The city would have to do it as a taking [of property], and that would be in the hundreds of millions of dollars. So they took that off the table because … that bridge wasn’t necessary at this time,” Waguespack told the Chicago Sun-Times.
Letchinger’s plan for roughly 34 vacant acres of the site calls for up to 3,737 residences, 20% of them designated as affordable to comply with the city’s set-aside rules. The new design includes low- to mid-rise buildings, some for offices, grouped near open space and riverfront access. Buildings would get ground-floor retail, and one is slated as a boutique hotel.
The project’s reduced density has drawn praise from residents. And Waguespack said he’s satisfied with the reduced public subsidy.
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“In the future if there’s more needed, we could go back and do it. But this is much more grounded in a realistic infrastructure project that will still satisfy all the needs of connecting the neighborhoods,” Waguespack said.
Hopkins said he views the scaled-down subsidy and the infrastructure projects as “wholly inadequate” and a broken promise to Lincoln Park and Bucktown residents.
“Lincoln Yards provided for two bridges with the possibility of a third. Foundry Park has zero,” Hopkins said. “I don’t want to move on a vague verbal promise that we might consider adding a bridge later. The time to add it is now while the redevelopment agreement is still pending. And the fact that it was omitted is tragic. Also, the [Elston-Armitage] intersection redesign and the new Metra station seems to have fallen by the wayside.”
Also at Wednesday’s meeting, Johnson proposed a tax break for Chicago’s booming film and television industries — by reducing the 15% personal property lease transaction tax to 11%.
The tax has been raised twice in recent years and was the biggest piece of the revenue package that helped balance the $16.7 billion budget for 2026. It has exceeded revenue projections by $40.3 million through June 30, allowing Johnson to offer the break in hopes of attracting more film and TV productions to Chicago.
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The City Council also followed a trail blazed by Gov. JB Pritzker and his counterparts in six other states by prohibiting present and former city employees — and elected officials — from using insider information to bet on prediction markets. Apps including Kalshi and Polymarket are used to place bets on everything from election winners and the number of candidates entering a specific race for office, to budgetary and foreign policy decisions by elected officials.
Championed by Ald. Timmy Knudsen (43rd), the ordinance prohibits current or former city officials, appointees and employees from using “confidential information or any non-public information, including the identity of the subject of an investigation” to either participate in prediction markets or “assist any other person” placing those bets.
The Council also confirmed Johnson’s appointment of Dr. Garth Walker as the city’s public health commissioner.
Covering the cost of fertility treatment can feel like yet another hurdle in a process that is already physically and emotionally draining. Not only do you have to go through the testing and medical procedures involved, you can also end up paying tens or even hundreds of thousands of dollars.
For families who want to have kids or women who want to afford themselves a little more time, though, this can feel like a price well worth paying. But the process may necessitate some financial planning. Research can also go a long way, as insurance companies increasingly offer coverage.
How much can fertility treatments cost?
The cost of fertility treatments can vary widely depending on the specific treatment that is necessary. A “typical egg preservation cycle is about $10,000,” while a frozen embryo transfer “could total about $2,500,” said The Bump. Meanwhile, a procedure like in vitro fertilization (IVF) “could add up to a total of $13,000 to $14,000.” Opting for a surrogate, meanwhile, can run anywhere from $80,000 to $100,000.
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There is also the reality that a fertility treatment is not always a one-time thing. In fact, “most people will need more than one cycle to achieve pregnancy,” said The Wall Street Journal.
Can insurance help cover fertility treatments?
Over the past decade, “more companies have already stepped up to help employees,” said Jaime Knopman, a reproductive endocrinologist for CCRM Fertility of New York, to the Journal. Now, said the outlet, “more than 40% of companies offer overall fertility benefits, according to a 2024 survey of employee benefits plans from the International Foundation of Employee Benefit Plans.”
Still, this does not mean you will get full coverage, and certain parts of the treatment process may not be covered. For example, “your plan may cover fertility medications, but only those of a specific brand. Or it may cover routine lab work, but only at designated labs,” said Discover. This makes it absolutely vital to do in-depth research and ask questions.
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If your company does not offer coverage, it could be worth asking HR. “Some patients even successfully lobbied their human-resources departments to change a company’s policies and benefits plans,” said the Journal.
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What are other options for covering the cost of treatments?
There are options besides your own bank account or insurance for helping to cover the cost of fertility treatments. Some alternatives include:
FSA or HSA funds: Flexible spending accounts, or FSAs, and health savings accounts, or HSAs, “may be used to help pay for IVF and other fertility treatments,” said First Citizens Bank.
Provider payment plans or financial assistance: Your doctor “may offer a payment plan, discounts for uninsured patients or even a shared-risk program,” said Discover.
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Nonprofits and charities: There are many “national and local nonprofit organizations that support fertility treatments and related costs,” said Discover. They may have eligibility requirements, however, as some are “established to assist with specific types of patients, while many include income thresholds.”
Fifty years ago, the U.S. Supreme Court struck down campaign spending limits in the landmark decision Buckley v. Valeo, finding the curbs violated First Amendment free-speech protections. Since then, several rulings, including the 2010 Citizens United case, which ended restrictions on election donations by corporations, nonprofits, and labor unions, have further loosened campaign finance regulations.
In this interview, which has been edited and condensed for length and clarity, Nicholas Stephanopoulos, Kirkland & Ellis Professor of Law at Harvard Law School, spoke about the recent ruling by the Supreme Court that lifted restrictions on how much money political parties can spend in coordination with candidates, its downside and potential upside, and its possible impact on the midterm elections.
Can you explain what the recent campaign finance ruling means? How is it going to affect political parties?
The recent decision is a not a huge blockbuster like some other campaign finance cases we’ve seen in recent years. That’s because the decision only involves limits on political parties’ coordinated expenditures with candidates, and that pool of money, both today and potentially in the future, is not enormous.
Before this ruling, parties could spend whatever they want, even before they could coordinate a lot of expenditures with candidates. Now they can just coordinate somewhat more. So, the stakes here were sort of moderate.
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The two things the decision means above all are these: On the negative side, it’ll be easier now for a corrupt donor [to skirt individual donation limits] to funnel more money to a candidate using a party as the conduit or the vehicle for that contribution. On the positive side, parties are permanent, important political institutions, and now somewhat more money might flow to parties instead of super PACs and dark money groups and other more problematic organizations.
Nicholas Stephanopoulos.
Harvard Law School
Justice Elena Kagan, who dissented from this ruling, said this decision would increase the likelihood of “political corruption.” Do you agree?
First of all, notice that Kagan isn’t challenging the fundamentals of campaign finance law. She’s not claiming that money isn’t speech. She’s not claiming that all campaign finance regulations should be upheld. She’s fully arguing within the current court’s doctrinal framework. She thinks that the law at issue is necessary to prevent corruption.
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Kagan points out that, with a little bit of bookkeeping, it should be fairly straightforward now for a donor to give effectively half a million dollars to a candidate channeled through a party, as opposed to the $7,000 the donor is allowed to give directly to the candidate.
With much bigger sums that can now be given through a party to a candidate, there’s the possibility of more quid pro quo corruption. A candidate isn’t likely to do very much in return for $7,000 but a candidate may do quite a bit more in return for $500,000. So I think we’ll see somewhat more corruption in politics as a result of today’s decision.
What’s the idea behind “money is speech,” which has been at the core of most campaign finance decisions since the 1970s?
The premise that money is speech, or at least it enables political speech, means that it can be covered by the First Amendment. That premise underlies all campaign finance doctrine since the 1970s.
It’s a controversial doctrine. Individual justices over the years have pointed out that money is not speech, and merely enabling speech is not the same thing as being speech itself. All campaign finance decisions since the 1970s have assumed that regulations of political funding involved the First Amendment because there’s a close enough connection to political speech, and even the progressive justices in the 1990s and 2000s still accepted that the First Amendment was involved here.
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The implication of fully endorsing the position that money isn’t speech is that all of these cases would quickly fall by the wayside. If money isn’t speech and there’s no First Amendment issue presented here, then Congress can regulate campaign finance however Congress wants to, without any possible First Amendment problem. But that view has never been the view of the majority of the court.
Can you compare the impact of this recent ruling to that of the 2010 Citizens United case?
Citizens United involved independent spending by corporations, by unions, and the court said that there’s no valid justification for limiting any independent campaign spending, whether it’s by candidates, rich individuals, parties, corporations, or unions.
The current case involves the somewhat less-explosive issue of coordinated expenditures. Citizens United was a sweeping decision, striking down a very important federal law and opening the door to huge new sums to be spent in politics. This decision isn’t like that. It doesn’t involve independent spending. It only involves one actor, political parties, not the whole range of actors. The stakes are a lot lower than the Citizens United case.
With this ruling, the Supreme Court overruled a 2001 decision, which upheld the same limits on coordinate expenditures with candidates. How do you explain that?
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The 2001 case was decided by the court when it was at its most pro-regulatory in the campaign finance context. What changed since 2001 is the composition of the court.
The critical change was when Sandra Day O’Connor retired in 2006, and Sam Alito replaced her. Alito has always been a skeptic of campaign finance regulations, whereas O’Connor, especially toward the end of her time on the court, was willing to uphold a lot of campaign finance regulations.
Almost everything that’s followed since then, Citizens United in 2010, McCutcheon in 2014, and other decisions striking down campaign finance laws, happened not because the world of politics changed or because there was some big insight on the court. It happened because the court became more conservative and what had been a five-four pro-regulation majority became a five-four anti-regulation majority.
It’s no surprise that the current court, which is now six-three against campaign finance regulation, doesn’t like a decision from this earlier period.
Will this ruling impact the midterm elections?
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In the near term, this will somewhat benefit the Republican Party committees that have more funds at their disposal because they have just happened to raise a lot more money recently than the Democratic Party entities.
However, even before this decision, all of those Republican entities could still spend their money however they wanted to, so it’s not that big of a change for them. I think Democrats will direct more of their donors to give some more money to party organizations. There might be a short-term benefit for Republicans, but I don’t think this will cause a great imbalance in the system going forward.
Overall, I’m not incredibly alarmed by this ruling. We’re still going to have in place various other laws and precautions that will stop some corruption.
It’s bad for our system to allow super PACs and dark-money groups to become the leading actors in campaign finance. I’d rather have the money in parties’ hands than in super PACs or dark-money groups’ hands. I don’t think the doors are really open for that much additional corruption here. I think there’s a non-trivial silver lining in strengthening political parties, which are valuable institutions.