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What to expect from the Sixteenth Finance Commission?

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What to expect from the Sixteenth Finance Commission?

NEW DELHI
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The government on Sunday named former vice chairman of Niti Aayog and Columbia University professor Arvind Panagariya as the chairman of the Sixteenth Finance Commission (SFC), a constitutional body. Mint takes a look at what to expect from the SFC.

What is the role of finance commissions?

Finance commissions are independent constitutional bodies with a key role to play in the division of the Centre’s net tax proceeds between Central and state governments keeping in mind the fiscal needs of the states. All central taxes other than those meant for states and the specific surcharges and cesses levied by the Centre form part of this divisible pool of tax revenue. The finance commissions decide the extent of the Centre’s revenue to be shared with the states and the formula for dividing it among states. The commission is a key pillar of fiscal federalism.

Why were some states unhappy?

Revenue sharing among states is a controversial subject as resources are finite. The parameters have to accommodate the interests of all states while factoring in their various stages of development. When the Fifteenth Finance Commission was set up, one of the terms of reference was to use the population data of the 2011 census. Karnataka and Tamil Nadu complained saying that would reduce allocations for them as they had been successful in their population stabilisation initiatives. The panel then gave weight to population and ‘population performance’ for an equitable allocation.

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What has the Centre asked the SFC to do?

The Centre has kept the terms of reference of the SFC short and direct rather than prescriptive. The panel has been asked to also suggest ways to augment the consolidated funds of states to supplement the resources of local bodies such as panchayats. In addition, the SFC may lay down the principles for grants-in-aid.

What issues does the SFC need to address?

Panagariya is expected to address sustainability of debt at the Central and state levels. The Centre maintains it is on track to achieve its target of fiscal deficit below 4.5% of GDP by FY26, and that general government debt will decline in the medium to long term. The SFC is expected to look into this as well as revenue trends and expenditure obligations at the Central and state levels to make recommendations. Another key area that the panel is expected to look into is expenditure reforms at the state level.

What does the common man get?

Finance panels tend to recommend a higher share of devolved funds to states with low per capita income so those states can deliver public goods at levels comparable to that in other states. It also incentivises the fiscal performance of states, benefiting their citizens. The panel is also expected to look into the unfinished agenda of GST rate revision of some items that are now on the backburner due to high inflation. The SFC may also take into account the next central pay panel decisions.

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Finance

US jobs report crushes expectations as economy adds 254,000 jobs, unemployment rate falls to 4.1%

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US jobs report crushes expectations as economy adds 254,000 jobs, unemployment rate falls to 4.1%

The US labor market added far more jobs than projected in September while the unemployment rate unexpectedly ticked lower, reflecting a stronger picture of the jobs market than Wall Street had expected.

Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics released Friday showed the labor market added 254,000 payrolls in September, more additions than the 150,000 expected by economists.

Meanwhile, the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, from 4.2% in August. September job additions came in higher than the revised 159,000 added in August. Revisions to both the July and August report showed the US economy added 72,000 more jobs during those two months than previously reported.

Wage growth, an important measure for gauging inflation pressures, rose to 4% year over year, from a 3.9% annual gain in August. On a monthly basis, wages increased 0.4%, in line with August’s reading.

The key question entering Friday’s report was whether the data would reflect significant cooling in the labor market, which could prompt another large Fed interest rate cut. Robert Sockin, Citi senior global economist, told Yahoo Finance that the better-than-expected jobs report makes it less likely the Fed moves with the “urgency” it did at its September meeting when the central bank cut interest rates by half a percentage point.

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“This pushes the Fed out a lot,” he said, adding that it’s uncertain the Fed will make a 50 basis point cut again this year.

Read more: Jobs, inflation, and the Fed: How they’re all related

Following the report, markets were pricing in a roughly 5% chance the Fed cuts interest rates by half a percentage point in November, down from a 53% chance seen a week ago, per the CME FedWatch Tool.

“Looking at the labour market strength evident in September’s employment report, the real debate at the Fed should be about whether to loosen monetary policy at all,” Capital Economics chief North America economist Paul Ashworth wrote in a note to clients on Friday. “Any hopes of a [50 basis point] cut are long gone.”

Futures tied to major US stock indexes rallied on the news. S&P 500 futures (ES=F) put on nearly 0.8%, while Dow Jones Industrial Average futures (YM=F) added roughly 0.5%. Contracts on the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F) moved 1.1% higher.

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Renaissance Macro head of economics Neil Dutta wrote in a note following the release that September’s jobs report was “undeniably good news” for the equity market.

“At the end of the day, the Fed is still cutting policy rates even as the economy grows,” Dutta wrote.

Also in Friday’s report, the labor force participation was flat from the month prior at 62.7%. Food services and drinking places led the job gains, rising 69,000 in the month. Meanwhile, healthcare added 45,000 jobs, and government jobs ticked higher by 31,000.

Earlier this week, data from ADP showed the private sector added 143,000 jobs in September, above economists’ estimates for 125,000 and significantly higher than the 99,000 seen in August. This marked the end of a five-month decline in private-sector job additions.

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“This is a pretty healthy, widespread rebound,” ADP chief economist Nela Richardson said. “And probably unexpected by many people who thought the job market was on a downward slide. This month, of course, gives pause to those kinds of assessments. Hiring is still solid.”

Construction workers work on the roof of a house being built in Alhambra, California on September 23, 2024. The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut last week has given prospective home buyers lower borrowing costs as the half-percentage-point cut lowered rates from a 23-year-high where it had been for more than a year. (Photo by Frederic J. BROWN / AFP) (Photo by FREDERIC J. BROWN/AFP via Getty Images)

Construction workers work on the roof of a house being built in Alhambra, Calif., on Sept. 23, 2024. (FREDERIC J. BROWN/AFP via Getty Images) (FREDERIC J. BROWN via Getty Images)

Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.

Click here for in-depth analysis of the latest stock market news and events moving stock prices

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Finance

Stock market today: US futures edge higher as investors gear up for key jobs report

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Stock market today: US futures edge higher as investors gear up for key jobs report

US stock futures climbed on Friday as investors braced for a key monthly jobs report, with the Middle East crisis and a return to work at US ports also in high focus.

S&P 500 futures (ES=F) put on 0.3%, while Dow Jones Industrial Average futures (YM=F) added roughly 0.2%. Contracts on the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F) moved 0.4% higher.

Investors are marking time for the release of the September jobs report, expected to provide further evidence the labor market is cooling but not collapsing. A rapid weakening could prompt the Federal Reserve to once again lower interest rates by an outsized 0.5% in November.

Friday’s report, set for release at 8:30 a.m. ET, is expected to show nonfarm payrolls rose by 150,000. But Wall Street is likely to focus less on hiring and more on the unemployment rate, where a gain could boost bets on a larger rate cut.

Read more: What the Fed rate cut means for bank accounts, CDs, loans, and credit cards

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While stocks are on track for weekly losses, the markets have shown some resilience in the face of a rough week of worrying headlines. The major gauges were off 1% or less as of Thursday’s close, with the S&P 500 and Dow still within striking distance of record highs.

In recent days, a huge ports strike, devastation from Hurricane Helene, and the prospect of a wider Mideast conflict brought the potential to lift prices and fan inflation. That in turn cast doubt on the Fed’s preferred 0.25% rate cut.

In a welcome move, the US dockworkers strike ended after a tentative wage deal was agreed late Thursday, though some issues remain to be settled by later this year.

On the downside, a barrage of strikes by Israel on Beirut kept alive the Mideast worries that have driven up oil prices. Western leaders warned about “uncontrollable escalation” as investors waited to see whether Israel will attack Iran’s oil facilities — a move President Biden said is under discussion.

Oil is on track for its biggest weekly gain in two years as tensions mount. Brent crude (BZ=F) and West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) futures rose over 1% on Friday morning, coming off a 5% gain the previous day.

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Finance

Unlocking Private Credit Finance: A Conversation On Key White Papers and Industry Insights – Hosted By CMF DEI Council

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October 9, 2024 2:00 PM-3:00 PM



Commercial / Multifamily
Education
Finance, Tax, & Accounting
Loan Production (Origination, Underwriting, Processing)
Webinar

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Member Price $0.00
Non-Member Price $399.00

About the Event

Private Credit Finance is considered one of the fastest-growing segments of alternative investments. It has emerged as a dynamic and increasingly prominent sector within the global financial ecosystem. Unlike traditional bank loans or publicly traded bonds, private credit involves non-bank lending, where investment funds or other institutional investors provide capital directly to businesses.

Join MBA Education and industry experts for an exclusive webinar featuring a panel of distinguished experts from the Private Credit Finance sector, all of whom have contributed to influential white papers on the subject. This in-depth discussion will explore the historical evolution of the industry and analyze future trends based on data assessed in collaboration with leading economists.

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Our panelists will highlight the key growth drivers within Private Credit Finance and discuss how these trends influence the traditional capital stack. Attendees will have the opportunity to engage directly with the experts through a live Q&A session.

Date/Time

  • Wednesday, October 9 (2:00 PM – 3:00 PM ET)

Objectives

  • Inform members and conduct an in-depth exploration of the Private Credit Finance landscape
  • Analyze the evolution of Private Credit Finance and project its future trajectory
  • Review detailed industry data presented by specialists who have contributed to White Papers in the field

Experience Level

  • Entry-Level
  • Intermediate
  • Advanced

Target Audience

  • Originators
  • Producers
  • Underwriters
  • Attorneys
  • Servicers

Speaker(s)

  • Moderator: Amber Rao, CCIM, Senior Vice President/Senior Mortgage Banker, Key Bank Real Estate Capital
  • Victor Calanog, Global Head of Research and Strategy, Manu Life
  • Jan Sternin, Senior Vice President, Managing Director of Servicing, Berkadia
  • Kevin Fagan, Senior Director & Head of CRE Economic Analysis, Moody’s Analytics
  • Anuj Gupta, Chief Executive Officer, A10 Capital
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