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The US sees the clouds of a financial crisis gathering on the horizon

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The US sees the clouds of a financial crisis gathering on the horizon

The longer interest rates remain high, the greater the risk of financial trouble. Joe Biden’s term in office began with the resurgence of a trend in inflation that had disappeared three decades ago, and it could end with a financial crash in the US. An office real estate crisis, a venture capital downturn, the risk of unlisted debt, Wall Street’s artificial intelligence bubble and abysmal deficits: The signals are proliferating, raising fears that the blue skies of full employment and growth might turn into storm clouds, brought on by persistent inflation and high interest rates, both slow poisons for the national economy.

The country got a taste of this in March 2023, when one regional bank after another went bankrupt for making rookie mistakes. They had made long-term investments with their clients’ funds and were then squeezed by the general rise in rates: Their customers withdrew their deposits to discover short-term remuneration equivalent to that offered by the Federal Reserve (Fed) – 5.25% per year – while the value of their long-term investments had fallen (when rates rise, the value of a bond falls to adjust in line with the market). The fire was put out by the Fed and J.P. Morgan, Wall Street’s “boss” in the event of a serious crisis.

One year later, high rates have continued to spread their venom. As is often the case, crises come as a surprise, emerging where no one saw them coming, often because the system is not transparent and does not allow for risk assessment. Private finance will feel the impact first – though not “private” as opposed to “public” (almost nothing is public in the United States), but rather as opposed to “listed on the markets.”

Read more Subscribers only Yellen says US ready to rescue other regional banks

The first issue is office real estate. The 2010s were characterized by a frenzy of construction, which crashed up against the wall of Covid-19 and the mainstreaming of remote work, especially in expensive cities such as New York, San Francisco and Chicago. With 110 million square meters of vacant office space in the country, landlords are caught between plummeting rents and occupancy rates and rising interest rates. The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) examined securitized real estate loans, which account for less than 15% of loans but give a good indication of the state of the market.

Within 12 months, $18 billion (€16.6 billion) of securitized loans will have to be repaid – double the figure recorded in 2023. According to the WSJ, only 35% of the loans have been repaid at maturity as scheduled in 2024, compared with 99% in 2021. This is worse than the 37% repayment rate that was reached in 2009 in the wake of the great financial crisis, according to Moody’s Ratings. These non-repaid loans are not necessarily the result of bankruptcies, but renegotiations or extensions. Nevertheless, the tension is high.

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Finance

'There Could Be A Whole Other Life He's Living' 'The Ramsey Show' Host Says After Wife Finds $209K Debt Behind Her Back

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'There Could Be A Whole Other Life He's Living' 'The Ramsey Show' Host Says After Wife Finds 9K Debt Behind Her Back
A hidden financial discovery exposed the scale of debt inside a long-running marriage. Anne, a caller from Pittsburgh, reached out to “The Ramsey Show” for guidance after uncovering $209,000 in credit card balances. Married for 19 years and now in her 50s, she said the balances accumulated without her knowledge. She said her husband managed nearly all household finances. Anne added that her name was not on the primary bank account. She had no online access, and both personal and business expense
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Finance

Will Trump’s US$200 Billion MBS Purchase Directive Reshape Federal National Mortgage Association’s (FNMA) Core Narrative?

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Will Trump’s US0 Billion MBS Purchase Directive Reshape Federal National Mortgage Association’s (FNMA) Core Narrative?
In early January 2026, President Donald Trump directed government representatives, widely understood to include Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, to purchase US$200 billion in mortgage-backed securities to push mortgage rates and monthly payments lower. Beyond its housing affordability goal, the move highlights how heavily the administration is leaning on government-sponsored enterprises like Fannie Mae to influence credit conditions and the mortgage market’s structure. With this large-scale…
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Finance

Holyoke City Council sends finance overhaul plan to committee for review

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Holyoke City Council sends finance overhaul plan to committee for review

HOLYOKE — The City Council has advanced plans to create a finance and administration department, voting to send proposed changes to a subcommittee for further review.

The move follows guidance from the state Division of Local Services aimed at strengthening the city’s internal cash controls, defining clear lines of accountability, and making sure staff have the appropriate education and skill level for their financial roles.

On Tuesday, Councilor Meg Magrath-Smith, who filed the order, said the council needed to change some wording about qualifications based on advice from the human resources department before sending it to the ordinance committee for review.

The committee will discuss and vote on the matter before it can head back to the full City Council for a vote. It meets next Tuesday. The next council meeting is scheduled for Jan. 20.

On Monday, Mayor Joshua Garcia said in his inaugural address that he plans to continue advancing his Municipal Finance Modernization Act.

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Last spring, Garcia introduced two budget plans: one showing the current $180 million cost of running the city, and another projecting savings if Holyoke adopted the finance act.

Key proposed changes include realigning departments to meet modern needs, renaming positions and reassigning duties, fixing problems found in decades of audits, and using technology to improve workflow and service.

Garcia said the plan aims to also make government more efficient and accountable by boosting oversight of the mayor and finance departments, requiring audits of all city functions, enforcing penalties for policy violations, and adding fraud protections with stronger reporting.

Other steps included changing the city treasurer from an elected to an appointed position, a measure approved in a special election last January.

Additionally, the city would adopt a financial management policies manual, create a consolidated Finance Department and hire a chief administrative and financial officer to handle forecasting, capital planning and informed decision-making.

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Garcia said that the state has suggested creating the CAFO position for almost 20 years and called on the City Council to pass the reform before the end of this fiscal year, so that it can be in place by July 1.

In a previous interview, City Council President Tessa Murphy-Romboletti said nine votes were needed to adopt the financial reform.

She also said past problems stemmed from a lack of proper systems and checks, an issue the city has dealt with since the 1970s.

The mayor would choose this officer, and the City Council will approve the appointment, she said.

In October, the City Council narrowly rejected the finance act in an 8-5 vote.

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Supporters ― Michael Sullivan, Israel Rivera, Jenny Rivera, Murphy-Romboletti, Anderson Burgos, former Councilor Kocayne Givner, Patti Devine and Magrath-Smith ― said the city needs modernization and greater transparency.

Opponents ― Howard Greaney Jr., Linda Vacon, former Councilors David Bartley, Kevin Jourdain and Carmen Ocasio — said a qualified treasurer should be appointed first.

Vacon said then the treasurer’s office was “a mess,” and that the city should “fix” one department before “mixing it with another.”

The City Council also clashed over fixes, as the state stopped sending millions in monthly aid because the city hadn’t finished basic financial paperwork for three years.

The main problem came from delays in financial reports from the treasurer’s office.

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Holyoke had a history of late filings. For six of the past eight years, the city delayed its required annual financial report, and five times in the past, the state withheld aid.

Council disputes over job descriptions, salaries and reforms also stalled progress.

In November, millions in state aid began flowing back to Holyoke after the city made some progress in closing out its books.

The state had withheld nearly $29 million for four months but even with aid restored, Holyoke still faces big financial problems, the Division of Local Services said.

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