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The impact of fintech on lending

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Technology – especially AI – is disrupting the world of finance (see overviews in Duffie et al. 2022, Foucault et al. 2025, and Vives 2019). Lending is no exception: machine learning and large datasets are successfully used for credit assessment. Fintech has enabled efficiency gains, such as improved loan screening, monitoring, and processing, and has fostered financial inclusion among underserved populations and in less developed countries.

At the same time, it raises concerns about financial stability, privacy, and discrimination. Digital technologies enable improved customer segmentation, which not only facilitates personalised services but also allows for finer price discrimination. The empirical evidence on fintech’s impact is mixed regarding loan pricing, substitutability or complementarity of fintech and bank credit, loan default, and data sharing.

Empirical studies differ on whether default or delinquency rates are higher for fintech-originated loans than for bank-originated loans. While some report higher default rates (Di Maggio and Yao 2021), others report lower (Fuster et al. 2019), and still others find no significant difference (Buchak et al. 2018). Similarly, open banking initiatives increase the likelihood that SMEs form new lending relationships with non-bank lenders and reduce their interest payments. Still, they do not necessarily improve financial inclusion (Babina et al. 2024). However, in Germany (Nam 2023) and India (Alok et al. 2024), open banking has improved credit access on both extensive and intensive margins without increasing risk. In the US, California’s Consumer Privacy Act strengthened fintechs’ screening capabilities relative to banks and enabled more personalised mortgage pricing, ultimately reducing loan rates and improving financial inclusion (Doerr et al. 2023).

An analytical framework

In Vives and Ye (2025a, 2025b), my co-author and I present an analytical framework that incorporates key differences between fintech firms and incumbent banks, explains the mixed empirical findings in the literature, and delivers a welfare analysis. The framework introduces a taxonomy of how fintech affects frictions in the lending market. We find that fintech’s impact on competition and welfare hinges on its effect on the differentiation between financial intermediaries and the efficiency gap between them. Primary factors influencing market performance include the level of bank concentration, the intensity of competition among fintechs, the potential for price discrimination, the size of the unbanked population, and the convenience offered by fintechs.

We consider a spatial oligopolistic competition model in which lenders (banks and fintechs) compete to provide loans to entrepreneurs. The framework captures key differences between fintechs and banks. For example, banks have more financial data and soft information (with relationship lending) than fintechs, but the latter have better information-processing technology and conversion of soft into hard information (with the digital footprint) and lower distance friction with borrowers. This distance can be physical or in terms of expertise; greater distance between a lender and borrower increases the cost of monitoring (or screening).

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Furthermore, banks have lower funding costs, and fintechs have higher convenience benefits. Fintechs also have greater price flexibility for technological and regulatory reasons, which gives them a competitive advantage. In the extreme, banks are differentiated by expertise (location), but fintechs are not; fintechs can price discriminate, whereas banks cannot. In our model, endogenous entrepreneur participation occurs at each location, and entrepreneurial projects require monitoring (screening) to enhance project returns (Vives and Ye 2025b) or to mitigate a moral hazard problem faced by entrepreneurs (Vives and Ye 2025a).

The type of fintech advancement matters

A key insight from Vives and Ye (2025a) is that we should distinguish between general advances in fintech that reduce the distance between lenders and borrowers and those that do not. General improvements in information collection and processing, such as enhanced data storage, computing power, or desktop software, do not necessarily reduce distance friction. Technologies that lower the effective distance between lenders and borrowers include improved internet connectivity, video conferencing, remote learning tools, AI, and advanced search engines, which enable lenders to expand their domain expertise and serve distant borrowers more effectively. Big data, together with machine learning, can improve both types of capabilities.

If fintech does reduce the distance friction, lenders’ differentiation will decrease and competition intensity will increase, decreasing their profits and monitoring incentives. The effect is more pronounced when the entrepreneurs’ moral hazard problem is more severe. The impact on entrepreneurs’ investment and total welfare is hump-shaped. Those effects are not present when fintech progress does not affect the distance between lenders and borrowers.

Bank and fintech competition

In Vives and Ye (2025b), we assume that banks are differentiated by expertise (located in a circle) but fintechs are not (located in the virtual middle). We find that (1) fintech entry can be blockaded, remain as a potential threat, or materialise depending on fintechs’ monitoring efficiency, (2) fintech lending can substitute or complement bank lending depending on whether pre-entry banks competed or not, and (3) fintech entry and loan volume is higher when bank concentration is higher.

Furthermore, if banks cannot price discriminate, a fintech with no advantage in terms of monitoring efficiency or funding costs can enter the lending market. If banks and fintechs have similar funding costs, for entrepreneurs with similar characteristics, banks’ loan rates and monitoring are higher than those of fintechs (and fintech borrowers are more likely to default). The latter result will change if fintechs have significantly higher funding costs than banks. If fintechs have a significant advantage in convenience, they will likely charge higher prices, while banks will conduct more thorough monitoring. Therefore, differences in funding costs, convenience benefits, and abilities to price discriminate may explain the variety of empirical results on loan defaults by banks and fintechs.

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Fintech entry may decrease entrepreneurs’ investment if competition within fintechs is not sufficiently intense. An intermediate level of competition intensity among fintechs is needed to ensure a welfare increase following fintech entry, to balance the incentives of borrowers and lenders.

However, if banks can also discriminate, fintechs need an advantage in monitoring (or funding costs, although this is less probable) to penetrate the market. Finally, the threat or actual entry of fintechs can induce bank exit or restructuring, potentially reducing the intensity of lending competition and investment, but generating a welfare-improving option value effect.

Policy implications

We can derive some policy implications from the analysis. We know that price discrimination is a competitive weapon, but it will not necessarily be welfare optimal unless it extends the market. This is so also in our modelling. Socially optimal loan rates strike a balance between the incentives of entrepreneurs and intermediaries to exert effort, thereby mitigating moral hazard, encouraging entrepreneur participation in the market, and enhancing lenders’ monitoring or screening effort.

However, this balance typically cannot be obtained from lender competition with location-based discrimination. For example, with endogenous entrepreneur participation at any location, a bank should charge (from a welfare perspective) higher rates for distant locations (since monitoring is more costly and distant locations generate less surplus). In contrast, price-discriminating banks will do the opposite in equilibrium to meet the competition. However, allowing banks to discriminate when fintechs price discriminate improves welfare when there is little inter-fintech competition.

Regarding data sharing, we find that a policy (e.g. open banking) that benefits fintechs must be complemented by an appropriate degree of inter-fintech competition. Otherwise, the policy may backfire, and a leading fintech may gain a monopoly position in a market segment. Differences in the degree of competition may explain the differences in the empirical results in the impact of open banking.

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In summary, levelling the playing field (in terms of lenders’ ability to price discriminate and access to information) is a good policy aimed at achieving a degree of competition that induces a division of rents, thereby balancing the incentives of different market participants to maximise welfare. This degree of competition must be sufficient to prevent monopoly positions in market segments, while also ensuring that both lenders and borrowers have enough stake in the game.

References

Alok, S, P Ghosh, N Kulkarni, and M Puri (2024), “Open banking and digital payments: Implications for credit access”, working paper.

Babina, T, S A Bahaj, G Buchak, F De Marco, A K Foulis, W Gornall, F Mazzola, and T Yu (2024), “Customer data access and fintech entry: Early evidence from open banking”, working paper.

Buchak, G, G Matvos, T Piskorski, and A Seru (2018), “Fintech, regulatory arbitrage, and the rise of shadow banks”, Journal of Financial Economics 130: 453–83.

Di Maggio, M, and V Yao (2021), “FinTech borrowers: Lax screening or cream skimming?”, The Review of Financial Studies 34: 4565–618.

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Doerr, S, L Gambacorta, L Guiso, and M Sanchez del Villar (2023), “Privacy regulation and fintech lending”, working paper.

Duffie, D, T Foucault, L Veldkamp, and X Vives (2022), Technology and finance, The Future of Banking 4, CEPR Press.

Foucault, T, L Gambacorta, W Jiang and X Vives (2025), Artificial intelligence in finance, The Future of Banking 7, CEPR Press.

Fuster, A, M Plosser, P Schnabl, and J Vickery (2019), “The role of technology in mortgage lending”, The Review of Financial Studies 32: 1854–99.

Nam, R J (2023), “Open Banking and Customer Data Sharing: Implications for Fintech Borrowers”, SAFE Working Paper No. 364.

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Vives, X (2019), “Digital disruption in banking”, Annual Review of Financial Economics 11: 243–72.

Vives, X, and Z Ye (2025a), “Information technology and lender competition”, Journal of Financial Economics 163: 103957.

Vives, X, and Z Ye (2025b), “Fintech entry, lending market competition, and welfare”, Journal of Financial Economics 168: 104040.

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Finance

Yes, retail investment needs a boost – but the squirrel looks too tame | Nils Pratley

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Yes, retail investment needs a boost – but the squirrel looks too tame | Nils Pratley

Red squirrel characters have a history in the public information game. Older UK readers may recall Tufty, who taught children about road safety in the 1970s. His chum, Willy Weasel, regularly got knocked down by passing cars but clever Tufty always remembered to look both ways.

Now comes Savvy Squirrel, who, with backing from the chancellor and a multi-year lump of advertising spend from the financial services industry, will try “to drive a step-change in how investing is understood, discussed and adopted”, as the blurb puts it. In translation: don’t squirrel everything away in a boring cash Isa but try taking an investment risk or two if you value your long-term financial health.

As with preventing road traffic accidents, the cause is noble. Every study on long-term financial returns reaches the same conclusion: inflation is the investor’s enemy and there is a cost to holding cash for long periods.

One statistical bible is the Equity Gilt Study published by Barclays, and a few numbers demonstrate the point. From 2004 to 2024, cash generated a return of minus 40.5% in real terms (meaning after inflation and including interest paid). By contrast, a conventional diversified portfolio comprising 60% UK equities and 40% gilts increased by 21.6% in real terms. A missed opportunity of 62.1 percentage points is enormous

Tufty the Squirrel and friends, part of a 1970s public information road safety series, is one of the UK’s favourite public information films. Photograph: National Archive/PA

Rachel Reeves’s interest in promoting the virtues of investment lies not only in helping savers but in greasing the wheels of the capital markets. Fair enough: a healthy economy needs a healthy stock market, including one that makes it easy for retail investors to participate. It is slightly ridiculous that the colossal sum of £610bn is estimated to be sitting in cash savings in the UK; it can’t all be rainy-day money or cash parked awaiting a house purchase.

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Many Americans famously follow the stock markets closely and discuss their 401(k) pensions savings plans but, even by European standards, the UK’s retail investment culture lags. Sweden has popularised investment with tax-breaks and other changes. Even supposedly cautious Germans are less inhibited. So, yes, one can applaud the ambition behind the campaign.

But here’s the doubt: it all feels terribly tame.

One can imagine an alternative launch in which Reeves tried to create a buzz by cutting stamp duty on share purchases. There are good reasons to adopt that policy anyway, as argued here many times, but a cut now would grab attention. True, rules for banks and investment firms on giving “targeted guidance” are being loosened to allow more useful advice alongside the “capital at risk” warnings. Yet the current news flow in Isa-land is about HMRC’s pernickety interpretation of the tax treatment of cash held within stocks and shares account. That just creates bad vibes in the wings.

Meanwhile, the campaign’s goals read as wishy-washy. It’s all about “helping people build confidence over time”, apparently. Well, OK, that’s what the market research suggests, but “creating more opportunities for everyday conversations” is limp when, in the outside world, teenagers are trading crypto on their phones and the world is awash with smart apps. The intended audience can surely handle more directness.

As for the squirrel, it may get lost in the forest of meerkats and other CGI creatures deployed by financial services firms. For a campaign that is supposed to be doing something distinctly different, why go with a character which, on first glance, looks generic?

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Back in the pre-smartphone 1970s, there was a certain shock value for the average five-year-old in seeing Willie Weasel lying injured in the road. At least the message about bad consequences was clear and memorable. One wishes the Savvy campaign well, but one fears a conversational squirrel may struggle to be heard.

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Finance

German finance minister wants to scrap spousal tax splitting

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German finance minister wants to scrap spousal tax splitting

Last weekend, several thousand people took to the streets in Munich to demonstrate against abortion and assisted suicide. One speaker made an extremely dramatic plea against what he called the “culture of death” that has allegedly taken hold in Germany. One sign of this, the speaker argued, was that the government is planning to abolish a regulation known as “spousal tax splitting.”

Is tax law really relevant to deep philosophical debates on the sanctity of life? It is even a matter of life and death at all? Surely we needn’t go that far? In any case, the intense political uproar surrounding the new debate on whether to abolish spousal tax splitting is notable, even by today’s standards of populist outrage.

An advantage for couples with widely divergent incomes

The row was sparked by Germany’s vice chancellor and finance minister, Lars Klingbeil, of the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD), who said he wanted to abolish and replace the joint taxation of spouses’ income, a system that has been in place since 1958.

How exactly does spousal tax splitting work? In Germany, married couples (and since 2013, couples in civil partnerships), can choose to have their income assessed jointly by the tax authorities.

It means that the taxable income for both spouses together is halved – as if both partners had each earned an equal half of the income. Their tax liability is then determined by simply doubling the income tax due on one half.

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As people who earn more pay higher taxes in Germany, this system benefits couples where one partner (and often this is still the man) earns significantly more than the other (in practice often the woman).

Lars Klingbeil
Lars Klingbeil thinks spousal splitting is outdated and costs the state too muchImage: Bernd von Jutrczenka/dpa/picture alliance

Costs of up to €25 billion per year

If for example one partner earns €60,000 ($70,512) a year and the other partner earns nothing, the couple will be taxed as if they earned €30,000 each. In this example, the couple would save nearly €5,800 in taxes per year compared to the amount they would owe if both partners filed their taxes separately. According to the Finance Ministry, spousal tax splitting costs the government a total of up to €25 billion annually.

Some critics have long viewed splitting as a tool to keep women out of the labor market, because the more a woman earns, the larger her tax burden becomes. Klingbeil seems to agree, arguing on ARD television in late March that the system was “out of step with the times.” The spousal splitting system reflects “a view of women and families that is completely at odds with my own,” he said.

Chancellor Merz said to be in favor of splitting

On Monday of this week, Klingbeil got some surprising support on this from Johannes Winkel, head of the youth wing of the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU).

“Given the demographic reality, the government should create incentives to ensure that both partners in a relationship are employed,” Winkel told the Funke Media Group. “In the future, tax relief should primarily be granted to married couples when they are facing hardships related to raising children.”

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But the chancellor is a vocal skeptic of the proposal. “I am not convinced by the claim that joint filing for married couples discourages women from working,” Friedrich Merz said at a conference organized by the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung newspaper. “Marriage is a relationship based on shared income and mutual support. And in a marriage, income must be treated as a joint income for tax purposes, not separately.”

Berlin under pressure to fix pensions, health care and taxes

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Klingbeil’s alternative plan

At around 74%, the labor force participation rate for women in Germany is one of the highest in Europe, but half of them work part-time.

Klingbeil’s idea is to replace the existing system with a more flexible approach: Both partners would be able to distribute tax-free income among themselves in such a way that it minimizes their tax liability. This would allow the couple to continue enjoying a tax advantage, albeit not to the same extent as before. And whether one partner earns more than the other would become less important.

However, it remains to be seen whether Klingbeil will be able to push through his proposal. Aside from Germany, similar regulations offering tax benefits to couples exist in Poland, Luxembourg, Portugal and France.

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This article was originally written in German.

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Departing inspector general targets Council Office of Financial Analysis

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Departing inspector general targets Council Office of Financial Analysis

The $537,000-a-year office created in 2014 to advise the City Council on financial issues and avoid a repeat of the parking meter fiasco has failed to deliver on that mission, the city’s chief watchdog said Tuesday.

Days before concluding her four-year term, Inspector General Deborah Witzburg said a shortage of both adequate staff and financial information closely held by the mayor’s office prevents the Council’s Office of Financial Analysis from helping the Council be the the “co-equal branch of government” it aspires to be.

In a budget rebellion not seen since “Council Wars” in the 1980s, a majority of alderpersons led by conservative and moderate Democrats rejected Mayor Brandon Johnson’s corporate head tax and approved an alternative budget, including several revenue-generating items the mayor’s office adamantly opposed.

But Witzburg said the renegades would have been in an even better position to challenge Johnson if only their financial analysis office had been “equipped and positioned to do what it’s supposed to do” — provide the Council with “objective, independent financial analysis.”

“We are entering new territory where the City Council is asserting new, independent authority over the budget process. It can’t do that in a meaningful way without its own access to financial analysis,” Witzburg told the Chicago Sun-Times.

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Chicago Inspector General Deborah Witzburg’s latest report focuses on the Chicago City Council’s Office of Financial Analysis.

Jim Vondruska/Jim Vondruska/For the Sun-Times

But the Council’s financial analysis office, she added, “has never been equipped or positioned to do what it needs to do. It needs better and more independent access to data, and it needs enough staff to do its job. It has a small number of employees and comparatively limited access to data.”

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The inspector general’s farewell audit examined the period from 2015 through 2023. During that time, the financial analysis office budget authorized “either three or four” full-time employees. It now has a staff of five .

Witzburg is recommending a staffing analysis to identify how many people the financial office really needs — and also recommending that the office “get data directly” from other city departments, “ rather than having it go through the mayor’s office.”

The audit further recommends that the office develop “better procedures to meet their reporting requirements” in a timely manner. As it stands now, reports are delivered “sometimes late, sometimes not at all,” the inspector general said.

“We find that those reports have been both not timely and not complete in terms of what they are required to report on and that those reports therefore have provided limited assistance to the City Council in its responsibility to make decisions about the city’s budget,” she said.

The Council Office of Financial Analysis responded to the audit by saying it hopes to add at least three full-time staffers in the short term and has made “some progress” over the last three years in improving their access to data, but not enough.

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The office was created in 2014 to provide Council members with expert advice on fiscal issues.

For nearly two years the reform was stuck in the mud over whether former 46th Ward Ald. Helen Shiller had the independence and policy expertise to lead the office.

Shiller ultimately withdrew her name, but the office was a bust nevertheless. In an attempt to breathe new life into it, sponsors pushed through a series of changes.

Instead of allowing the Budget chair alone to request a financial analysis on a proposal impacting the city budget, any alderperson was allowed to make that request.

The office was further required to produce activity reports quarterly, not just annually.

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Now former-Budget Chair Pat Dowell (3rd) then chose Kenneth Williams Sr., a former analyst for the office, as director and gave him the “autonomy” the ordinance demanded.

Two years ago, a bizarre standoff developed in the office.

Budget Committee Chair Jason Ervin (28th) was empowered to dump Williams after Williams refused to leave to make way for a director of Ervin’s own choosing.

The standoff began when Williams said he was summoned to Ervin’s office and told the newly appointed Budget chair was “going in a different direction, and I’m putting you on administrative leave” with pay.

“He took all my credentials and access away. I would love to come to work. I wasn’t allowed to come to work,” Williams said then.

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Williams collected a paycheck for doing nothing while serving out the final days remainder of a four-year term.

Ervin’s resolution stated the director “may be removed at any time with or without cause by a two-thirds” vote or 34 alderpersons. He chose Janice Oda-Gray, who remains chief administrator.

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