Finance
Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq decline, reversing earlier gains amid latest Trump tariff moves
Investors’ consensus view of the macroeconomy has flipped on its head in the past month.
In the latest Bank of America Fund Managers Survey released on Tuesday, 49% of respondents said they expect a “hard landing” for the global economy — where economic growth deteriorates before inflation fully retreats — in the next 12 months. Last month, just 11% of respondents had expected this outcome.
Conversely, a “soft landing” — where inflation falls to the Fed’s 2% target without the economy tipping into recession — is no longer the consensus. In the latest survey conducted from April 4 to April 10, just 37% of respondents said they expect a soft landing. This is down from 64% expecting a soft landing a month ago.
The shifts in sentiment reflect how economists have been discussing the potential impact of President Trump’s tariffs, with many expecting the new policies to boost inflation and slow economic growth. Some even believe the tariffs could push an already slowing US economy into recession later this year.
“The Fed had accomplished what many had thought was impossible,” BNP Paribas chief US economist James Egelhof told Yahoo Finance, pointing to a recent strong jobs report and inflation hitting its lowest level in four years. “It had brought us to the brink of a soft landing. Now, the tariffs change everything.”

Finance
401(k) savers stayed on course through market volatility, Fidelity found
Retirement savers weathered a chaotic stretch of market gyrations in the first three months of the year, consistently adding to their savings, according to Fidelity Investments’ quarterly analysis.
While they experienced a drop in average 401(k), 403(b), and IRA balances, mostly due to market swings, savings rates remained consistent, with the average 401(k) savings rate increasing to a record 14.3%.
“We saw a lot of positive savings behaviors among employees,” Michael Shamrell, vice president of workplace thought leadership at Fidelity Investments, told Yahoo Finance.
“It was really encouraging to see that despite a lot of things going on, and economic ups and downs, people continued to save and didn’t pull back, or make a lot of changes to their asset allocation,” he said. “As a result, we saw the individual 401(k) savings rate increase to the highest level that we’ve seen.”
To break it down, the average employee contribution rate was 9.5%, and the employer contribution rate was 4.8%. This combined savings rate of 14.3%, up from 13.5% in 2020, is the closest it’s ever been to Fidelity’s suggested savings rate of 15%.
“For years, the individual savings rate was stuck at 8%,” Shamrell said.
Overall, average 401(k) retirement account balances dropped 3% through the first three months of this year to an average of $127,100 from $131,700 at the end of 2024. This was the second-highest average on record for the firm and an 11% increase from the start of 2024.
The data is based on 25,300 defined contribution plans at various companies across the country, covering 24.4 million participants.
Read more: How much can you contribute to your 401(k) in 2025?
In the first quarter, 17.4% of people with 401(k) accounts at Fidelity increased their savings rate, while 5% decreased. Less than 1% stopped saving altogether.
Surprisingly, only 6% changed their 401(k) asset allocation. Of those who did, about 3 in 10 moved into more conservative investments.
There are two big drivers.
First, automatic enrollment in employer-provided retirement accounts for new employees and auto-escalation each year keep the trains running through all kinds of uncertainty.
More than 1 in 4 plans now offer employer-set automatic escalation, and 35% of plans default to automatically enrolled employees at a 5% contribution rate or higher, according to Fidelity data, with an annual 1% increase until reaching roughly 10% of pay.
“The increasing use of auto escalation is a big factor in why we are seeing a gradual increase in the individual savings rate,” Shamrell said.
Finance
New transition finance playbook offer tips for financial institutions | Investment Executive

It also considers current market realities such as a shortage of high-emitting companies with robust transition plans, the lack of high-quality and consistent metrics available to assess such plans, and no clear definition of what transition finance activity entails.
“There is no universal approach to transition finance,” said Yingzhi Tang, one of the lead authors of the playbook and a senior research associate with the ISF.
“That is where our playbook comes into play, to lay out a range of approaches, allowing financial institutions to select the path that best suits their mandate and context.”
The playbook offers 14 tips and provides some practical examples from the Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec, Ontario Municipal Employees Retirement System (OMERS) and the Co-operators Group. The three institutions helped develop the recommendations.
The list of tips starts with a recommendation to get “the top level” of a financial institution involved, Tang said, referring to senior executives. The playbook says securing support at the senior level can be done by presenting a business case about how transition finance can allow an institution to create value and manage risks.
Another tip is to leverage third-party taxonomies and frameworks to come up with an in-house definition for transition finance and clearly communicate which frameworks that definition is based on. For example, it notes that OMERS developed its in-house climate taxonomy by drawing on external frameworks such as the International Capital Markets Association’s Green Bond Principles and Climate Bonds Initiative Taxonomy.
Acknowledging that high-emitting companies are still in the early stages of decarbonizing, the playbook further recommends using a range of metrics to track their progress. This includes emissions intensity metrics, which measure the emissions produced for each unit of activity or output, and temperature scores, which estimate the global temperature rise associated with a company’s emissions or those of a portfolio.
Other recommendations include segmenting portfolios based on “transition maturity” to gauge which investments are further along in supporting a transition to a low-carbon economy and which require more progress, embedding decarbonization targets in underwriting strategies and collaborating with policymakers to drive further action.
“It is very much going step by step through the investment cycle,” Tang said.
The new playbook comes on the heels of the launch of Business Future Pathways, an initiative that seeks to encourage Canadian financial institutions and companies to develop credible climate transition plans. That initiative is also supported by the ISF.
Tang said the playbook and Business Future Pathways are intended to work hand in hand to propel Canada toward its target of achieving net zero by 2050. As it stands, it’s estimated that the country is short $115 billion a year in transition-aligned investments to achieve that target.
“Those activities make up the whole puzzle of deploying capital credibly to those assets with robust transition plans,” she said.
“It’s extremely important for Canadian financial institutions to manage climate-related financial risks and capture long-term value in the transition to net zero.”
IE was a media sponsor of the RIA Conference.
Finance
Finance approves Long to lead IRS

Former Rep. Billy Long (R-Mo.) is one step closer to taking over as IRS commissioner.
The Senate Finance Committee voted 14-13 along party lines to approve Long’s nomination to lead the tax-collecting agency. The former auctioneer is up for the job after the previous IRS commissioner, Danny Werfel, stepped down when it became clear the White House would oust him. A series of interim leaders have guided the IRS since then.
You’re seeing a preview of our Premium Policy: The Vault financial services and tax policy coverage. Read the full story by subscribing here.
-
Movie Reviews1 week ago
MOVIE REVIEW – Mission: Impossible 8 has Tom Cruise facing his final reckoning
-
Politics1 week ago
Trump honors fallen American heroes, praises God in Memorial Day address: 'Great, great warriors'
-
Politics1 week ago
Trump admin asking federal agencies to cancel remaining Harvard contracts
-
Culture1 week ago
Can You Match These Canadian Novels to Their Locations?
-
Technology1 week ago
The Browser Company explains why it stopped developing Arc
-
News1 week ago
Harvard's president speaks out against Trump. And, an analysis of DEI job losses
-
News1 week ago
Read the Trump Administration Letter About Harvard Contracts
-
News1 week ago
Charles Rangel, Former New York Congressman, Dead at 94