Finance
Sen. Whitehouse: Climate change could crash the financial system
The Hill reported earlier this month on how opaque decisions within the insurance industry were laying the groundwork for where Americans will live as the planet heats.
But the risk goes beyond that, many experts warn: The complex interrelationships between insurance, mortgage lending and the broader financial system have made climate change “an emerging risk to financial stability,” according to the 2023 report by the Financial Stability Oversight Committee.
Senate Budget Committee Chair Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.) has been a principal voice warning of the financial risks spilling over as climate change impacts the insurance industry.
Sen. Whitehouse sat down with The Hill to discuss why he worries climate change poses risk to the global financial system and the role of the Senate in addressing it.
Q: Some experts warn about the potential of Great Recession-style systemic risk from climate insurance — but others argue that, however serious that risk might be, it’s fundamentally a regional issue, restricted to places like Florida. Which side of that do you come down on?
Whitehouse: There are very significant indicators and it’s going to be big, national, and even global. A number of studies show a very high risk to the world economy from calamities — and insurance is at the heart of that.
The Florida insurance market is more or less circling the drain right now in the way in which Freddie Mac’s chief economist predicted: that with the danger of sea level rise and coastal storm activity, coastal properties become increasingly expensive to insure and then they become uninsurable.
And once they become uninsurable, they become unmortgageable. And once buyers can’t get mortgages for those properties, the values crash — because you’ll now only have cash buyers on the demand side.
And that was predicted by Freddie Mac to produce a systemic nationwide economic shock, akin to or greater than the [2008] mortgage meltdown.
Q: So to push back on that a bit, the mortgage industry would say, even if the Florida coast becomes uninsurable, it’s still a regional problem — however serious it might be.
Whitehouse. The problem with that is that the sea levels and storm risk aren’t just increasing in Florida.
You’re seeing it through South Texas. You’re seeing it in the Louisiana and Atlantic coast. Florida is getting first and worst because it has so much coast and a sketchy insurance market. But Florida would just be the leading edge of a problem that would hit coasts all around the United States.
And you now have [flooding’s] evil twin, wildfire risk. Once you get away from the coast and out particularly to the west and to areas where wildfire risk is no longer either temporally or geographically predictable.
Q: For the Senate Budget Committee — what legislative intervention could help defray some of that risk?
Whitehouse: I mean, obviously, solving the climate problem would put a huge amount of this risk out under better control.
When we’re looking at federal debt, a third of it — a whole third — was produced by unexpected shocks, like [the mortgage crisis of] 2008, and by COVID.
And there’s every reason to believe that the shock of an insurance and property values crash from coastal and wildfire risk would be worse than those.
The thing about these climate [risks], is that unlike 2008 — where there’s panic and economic crash, the bottom falls out of markets, but then the values return. [But] if the underlying risk is that the property is going to be underwater, or that the house is going to burn four or five times during the course of a 30-year mortgage, then that [risk] that doesn’t go away. So there isn’t a rebound.
That’s what makes it so dangerous.
Finance
World Bank drops climate finance target amid US pressure
The World Bank is ditching its commitment to steer 45 percent of its spending toward projects with climate benefits, after facing pressure from the Trump administration.
The move, announced Monday following a meeting of the bank’s board of directors last week, marks a victory in President Donald Trump’s effort to purge climate policies from U.S. foreign policy. His administration has described the target as “distortionary” and “nonsensical.”
The bank preserved its broader Climate Change Action Plan — of which the 45 percent target was a key metric — just days before it was set to expire at the end of June. In addition to directing money toward climate projects, the plan provides technical support for helping countries reduce their greenhouse gas pollution and adapt to rising temperatures.
“We will retire the 45% climate co-benefits target,” the World Bank Group said in a statement, noting that it had “done significant work in answering client demand and needs.”
The bank’s work on climate “is and will remain firmly client driven, supporting them in delivering on their own ambitions as set out in their national plans and NDCs,” the statement added, referring to the nationally determined contributions countries submit under the Paris Agreement.
The decision to drop the climate finance target follows months of pressure from the Trump administration. People with knowledge of the negotiations said the U.S. was firm that the target must go despite other countries indicating their support for the bank’s climate goal. The U.S. has sway over the bank’s decisions as its largest shareholder.
Beyond the finance target, the Climate Change Action Plan also provides diagnostic reports on countries’ climate and development goals and aims to align lending with the Paris Agreement, which calls for preventing temperature rise from surpassing 2 degrees Celsius since the Industrial Revolution.
The bank said it would honor a board request to undertake an independent evaluation of the climate plan to determine if it’s helping countries grapple with rising temperatures. The decision effectively extends the plan beyond its expiration at the end of June.
The climate target was supported by many of the bank’s shareholders. It’s also been a prominent signal of the bank’s support for climate action at a time when the impacts of rising temperatures are accelerating.
“This is way, way away from where we should be for a responsible financial architecture,” said one official from a developed country who was directly involved in the negotiations and was granted anonymity to describe internal discussions.
The bank will continue to track and report on the amount of money going to projects with climate co-benefits. It exceeded its own target last year by directing 48 percent of its financing to climate-related projects.
Other climate targets embedded in agreements that govern different arms of the bank will remain, including one for the International Development Association, the bank’s fund for the poorest countries.
Multilateral development banks play a key role in global climate negotiations, where wealthy countries have committed to helping provide $300 billion a year for poorer countries by 2035. That no longer includes the United States, which has left the Paris Agreement and will exit the underlying United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change early next year.
“Targets send enormous signals about an institution’s direction of travel,” said Clemence Landers, a senior fellow at the Center for Global Development. “At the same time, it’s a sign of the times and the World Bank is doing its level best to not rankle its largest shareholder.”
She believes the bank will continue financing renewable energy projects in countries that want them, despite having dropped its climate target.
“I wouldn’t be shocked if the bank continued to have an extremely robust clean pipeline with or without this target,” said Landers.
The bank says retiring the 45 percent target is part of its shift from a focus on “inputs to outcomes.” It will continue to monitor and report net greenhouse gas emissions across its projects and countries’ ability to withstand climate risks.
“We will continue to report to the Board on progress, including on climate co-benefits, and to contribute to our related joint MDB efforts,” the statement said, referring to its role as a multilateral development bank. “We will explore and discuss ways to better structure our engagement on adaptation, nature and pollution.”
Finance
Shanghai needed as finance hub, as Hong Kong ‘not enough’: proposal
Shanghai has been urged to build itself into a hub serving the rising outbound investment needs of Chinese firms, potentially increasing rivalry with Hong Kong as both cities race to augment their status as financial centres.
The suggestion by Liu Xiaochun, vice-president of the Shanghai Finance Institute and a senior banker with three decades of experience, was made in mid-June at a closed-door meeting hosted by China Finance 40, a Beijing think tank comprising many top Chinese financial regulators, bankers and academics.
“Just as American multinationals expanded globally with New York as their financial anchor, China’s outbound firms face a phenomenon shaped by unique international circumstances, and cannot rely on financial centres in other countries,” said Liu, former head of Agricultural Bank of China’s Hong Kong branch and former president of Hangzhou-headquartered China Zheshang Bank, according to a transcript of his speech published last week.
“China has Hong Kong, a mature international financial centre with the flexibility to respond to market changes, but that is not enough to fully meet the special needs of Chinese companies’ outbound expansion. In this regard, Shanghai needs to play a role.”
“To boost its standing as an international financial centre, Shanghai must demonstrate that role through support for outbound Chinese firms,” Liu said.
Behind Liu’s proposals is Shanghai’s ambition to make itself a global business hub. The city has the Yangtze River Delta at its back, more regional headquarters of multinational companies than any other mainland city and policy support from the central government.
Finance
Palestinian Authority pushes electronic payments to combat financial crisis, Israeli restrictions | The Jerusalem Post
The Palestinian sector is set to rely increasingly on electronic payments, moving away from physical bank notes as a means to deal with the banking crisis, Deputy Governor of the Palestinian Monetary Authority (PMA) Mohammad Manasra told the PA-run WAFA on Sunday.
The move is part of a multi-track path to deal with the financial crisis partially attributed to Israeli restrictions on the transfer of surplus cash, he said. Under the current restrictions, Palestinian banks can only return physical currency through Bank Hapoalim and Israel Discount Bank with a cap of NIS 18 billion annually.
Palestinian economist Mohammed Samhouri has repeatedly published that such a ceiling barely reaches half the necessary levels, creating an economic crisis.
The exchange depends heavily on the banks receiving a letter of indemnity and immunity, which protects them should there be accusations of money laundering. The letters, issued by Israel’s Finance Ministry, have been repeatedly obstructed in recent years.
According to the research organization Arab Center Washington DC, the accumulation of shekels in Palestinian banks has reached unsustainable levels, which threatens the banking system’s capacity to finance trade with Israel. In 2024, more than half of Palestinian Authority imports and more than 80% of its exports were with Israel.
Such a ceiling, however, does not reflect the current size of the Palestinian economy. Consequently, the Palestinian banks are replete with surplus shekels cash that they cannot transfer to replenish their correspondent accounts with Israeli banks – accounts which are essential for conducting cross-border trade with Israel. Currently, the accumulation of shekels in Palestinian banks has reached unsustainable levels, threatening the banking system’s capacity to finance trade with Israel.
The consequence, according to the WAFA interview, is that banks have begun refusing to accept shekel deposits, which has created economic hardship for both individuals and businesses.
Manasra asserted that a new law introduced to reduce cash transactions is in place to build a stronger economy, not to burden civilians, and that comprehensive implementation of the law would follow a fully integrated electronic payments infrastructure. The implementation of the law is expected to be introduced over a two-year period.
The PMA official added that talks were being held with the Bank of Israel and an international partner to see the NIS 18 billion cap raised, though responsibility for the issue was transferred to the Israeli government in October 2023.
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