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ORVANA REPORTS CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL RESULTS FOR THE THIRD QUARTER OF FISCAL 2024

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ORVANA REPORTS CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL RESULTS FOR THE THIRD QUARTER OF FISCAL 2024

TSX:ORV

/NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION IN THE UNITED STATES/

This news release does not constitute an offer of securities for sale in the United States. Securities may not be offered or sold in the United States absent registration with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission or an exemption from registration. There will be no public offering of any of the securities mentioned in this news release in the United States.

TORONTO, Aug. 12, 2024 /CNW/ – Orvana Minerals Corp. (TSX: ORV) (the “Company” or “Orvana”) reports consolidated financial and operational results for the quarter ended June 30, 2024 (“Q3 FY2024”).

Orvana Minerals Corp. Logo (CNW Group/Orvana Minerals Corp.)

Orvana Minerals Corp. Logo (CNW Group/Orvana Minerals Corp.)

This news release contains only a summary of the Company’s financial and operations results for the third quarter of fiscal 2024, and readers should refer to the full set of unaudited consolidated financial statements for the nine months ended June 30, 2024 and 2023, and accompanying management’s discussion and analysis (MD&A), available on www.sedarplus.ca and on the Company’s website at www.orvana.com. All financial figures contained herein are expressed in U.S. dollars unless otherwise noted.

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Juan Gavidia, CEO of Orvana Minerals Corp. stated: “Our financial performance improved significantly in the third quarter generating $7.5 million cash provided by operating activities as a result of the increased metal production coupled by the positive metal prices, at the same time that we continue optimizing our mining costs”.

“At Bolivia, now that we have reached the critical milestone of placing 80% of the bonds program, we expect to announce the start date of the construction in the coming weeks”, he added.

Highlights

Orovalle – Spain

  • Production of 13,078 gold equivalent ounces(1) (10,832 gold ounces, 1.0 million copper pounds and 30,872 silver ounces) was 29% higher when compared to 10,101 gold equivalent ounces1 (“GEO”) in the previous quarter, as a result of:

    • ­ Throughput of 150,843 tonnes, 11% above the previous quarter.

    • ­ Gold grade of 2.37 g/t, 20% above the previous quarter.

    • ­ 94.1% gold recovery, 5% above the previous quarter.

  • ­ Copper production 10% lower than the prior quarter due to lower grade and recovery, partially offset by higher tonnage milled.

  • Guidance for FY2024 is updated from that disclosed in the Company’s Management’s Discussion and Analysis for the three and six months ended March 31, 2024:

Revised Guidance

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Previous Guidance

Metal Production

  Gold (oz)

37,000 – 39,000

41,000 – 45,000

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  Copper (million lbs)

3.7 – 3.9

3.3 – 3.7

Capital Expenditures (USD thousands)

$8,000 -$9,500

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$16,000 -$18,000

Cash operating costs (by-product) ($/oz) gold (1) (2)

$1,450 – $1,550

$1,300 – $1,400

All-in sustaining costs (by-product) ($/oz) gold (1) (2)

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$1,700 – $1,800

$1,700 – $1,850

(1)

Gold Equivalent Ounces (GEO), cash costs per ounce (COC) and all-in sustaining costs (AISC) per ounce are Non-GAAP Financial Performance Measures. For further information and detailed reconciliations, please see the “Non-GAAP Financial Performance Measures” section of the Company’s Q3 FY2024 MD&A.

(2)

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Fiscal 2024 previous guidance assumptions for COC and AISC included by-product commodity prices of $3.75 per pound of copper and an average Euro to US Dollar exchange of 1.12. Fiscal 2024 revised guidance assumptions for COC and AISC include by-product commodity prices of $4.02 per pound of copper and an average Euro to US Dollar exchange of 1.08.

Don Mario – Bolivia

  • The Company, focused on restarting production at Don Mario, has been seeking financing for its Oxides Stockpile Project (the “OSP”), consisting of a plant expansion to treat ore stockpiled in the Don Mario Operation from previous years of mining activity.

  • Between July 1, 2024 and August 12, 2024 EMIPA completed the following:

    • ­80% placement of the Bond Program units, for a total nominal amount of US $37.7 million.

    • Issuance of 56,414 non-voting preferred shares, for a total amount of approximately US $0.81 million. Preferred shares were issued by EMIPA as a private placement in Bolivia, Orvana has not offered any securities.

    • Four promissory notes have been contracted, for a total amount of approximately US $1.4 million, with due date September 2024.

    • Invested in several local short term financial instruments, all of them sold as of July 30, incurring in a net cost of US $2M.

  • EMIPA intends to use the net proceeds of the Bond Program, issuance of non-voting preferred shares and promissory notes to partially finance its proposed Oxides Stockpile Project and for general corporate purposes. As of the date hereof, EMIPA continues to work on closing the remaining Bond Program in Bolivia and working on additional financing to secure the funds required for the OSP construction and ramp-up phases.

  • The Company is updating the OSP financial model, including costs estimates updates and required financing structure, and will provide updates when further material information becomes available.

  • Upon closing of 80% of the bonds offering in Bolivia, EMIPA is making plans to prepare for the Don Mario Plant expansion, expecting to start construction before the end of 2024.

Taguas – Argentina

  • Orvana is analyzing a strategic option to combine oxides and sulphides in a larger undertaking strategy at Taguas. During Q3 FY2024 the Company continued working on enhancing the analytics of the sulphides zone of the deposit, and a new geological modeling is in progress. Next steps would include spectral analysis campaign to improve alteration types definition, and geo-metallurgical tests with oxide and sulphide ores. Once the oxides – sulphides combined opportunity is understood, next steps for the project will be determined.

Selected Financial Information

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Quarters ended

Variance

%

Nine Months ended

Variance

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%

June 30, 2024

June 30, 2023

June 30, 2024

June 30, 2023

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GEO(3)

13,078

13,398

(2 %)

32,729

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41,683

(21 %)

Consolidated Financial Performance (in 000’s)

Revenue

25,425

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23,998

6 %

61,476

69,280

(11 %)

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Mining costs

16,749

18,280

(8 %)

48,339

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55,325

(13 %)

Comprehensive (loss) income

2,935

(155)

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(1,994) %

(2,124)

(29)

7,224 %

EBITDA(3) 

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8,910

5,164

73 %

10,846

11,650

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(7 %)

Cash provided by operating activities

7,484

8,676

(14 %)

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8,556

13,625

(37 %)

Capital expenditures (cash basis)

2,193

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4,971

(56 %)

6,728

9,560

(30 %)

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Cash (used in) provided by financing activities

(3,123)

(1,516)

106 %

(4,459)

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(5,314)

(16 %)

Total assets

115,696

130,208

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(11 %)

115,696

130,208

(11 %)

Current liabilities

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36,797

44,611

(18 %)

36,797

44,611

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(18 %)

Non-current liabilities

24,464

31,444

(22 %)

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24,464

31,444

(22 %)

Orovalle

COC(3)  ($/oz)

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1,352

1,392

(3 %)

1,576

1,378

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14 %

AISC (3) ($/oz)

1,625

1,712

(5 %)

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1,843

1,667

11 %

Consolidated

COC (3) ($/oz)

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1,411

1,469

(4 %)

1,651

1,458

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13 %

AISC(3)  ($/oz)

1,688

1,802

(6 %)

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1,979

1,825

8 %

(3)

Gold Equivalent Ounces (GEO), EBITDA, cash costs per ounce (COC) and all-in sustaining costs (AISC) per ounce are Non-GAAP Financial Performance Measures. For further information and detailed reconciliations, please see the “Non-GAAP Financial Performance Measures” section of the Company’s Q3 FY2024 MD&A.

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ABOUT ORVANA – Orvana is a multi-mine gold-copper-silver company. Orvana’s assets consist of the producing El Valle and Carlés gold-copper-silver mines in northern Spain, the Don Mario gold-silver property in Bolivia, currently in care and maintenance, and the Taguas property located in Argentina. Additional information is available at Orvana’s website (www.orvana.com).

Cautionary Statements – Forward-Looking Information

Certain statements in this presentation constitute forward-looking statements or forward-looking information within the meaning of applicable securities laws (“forward-looking statements”). Any statements that express or involve discussions with respect to predictions, expectations, beliefs, plans, projections, objectives, assumptions, potentials, future events or performance (often, but not always, using words or phrases such as “believes”, “expects”, “plans”, “estimates” or “intends” or stating that certain actions, events or results “may”, “could”, “would”, “might”, “will”, “are projected to” or “confident of” be taken or achieved) are not statements of historical fact, but are forward-looking statements.

The forward-looking statements herein relate to, among other things, Orvana’s ability to achieve improvement in free cash flow; the ability to maintain expected mining rates and expected throughput rates at El Valle Plant; the potential to extend the mine life of El Valle and Don Mario beyond their current life-of-mine estimates including specifically, but not limited to, Orvana’s ability to optimize its assets to deliver shareholder value; estimates of future production (including without limitation, production guidance), operating costs and capital expenditures; mineral resource and reserve estimates; statements and information regarding future feasibility studies and their results; future transactions; future metal prices; the ability to achieve additional growth and geographic diversification; and future financial performance, including the ability to increase cash flow and profits; future financing requirements; mine development plans; the possibility of the conversion of inferred mineral resources to mineral reserves; and Orovalle’s ability to finalize the definitive Collective Bargain Agreement.

Forward-looking statements are necessarily based upon a number of estimates and assumptions that, while considered reasonable by the Company as of the date of such statements, are inherently subject to significant business, economic and competitive uncertainties and contingencies, which includes, without limitation, as particularly set out in the notes accompanying the Company’s most recently filed financial statements. The estimates and assumptions of the Company contained or incorporated by reference in this news release, which may prove to be incorrect, include, but are not limited to the various assumptions set forth herein and in Orvana’s most recently filed Management’s Discussion & Analysis and Annual Information Form in respect of the Company’s most recently completed fiscal year (the “Company Disclosures”) or as otherwise expressly incorporated herein by reference as well as: there being no significant disruptions affecting operations, whether due to labour disruptions, supply disruptions, power disruptions, damage to equipment or otherwise; permitting, development, operations, expansion and acquisitions at El Valle, Don Mario and Taguas being consistent with the Company’s current expectations; political developments in any jurisdiction in which the Company operates being consistent with its current expectations; certain price assumptions for gold, copper and silver; prices for key supplies being approximately consistent with current levels; production and cost of sales forecasts meeting expectations; the accuracy of the Company’s current mineral reserve and mineral resource estimates; labour and materials costs increasing on a basis consistent with Orvana’s current expectations; and the availability of necessary funds to execute the Company’s plan. Without limiting the generality of the foregoing, this news release also contains certain “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of applicable securities legislation, including, without limitation, references to the results of the Company’s exploration activities, including but not limited to, drilling results and analyses, mineral resource estimation, conceptual mine plan and operations, internal rate of return, sensitivities, taxes, net present value, potential recoveries, design parameters, operating costs, capital costs, production data and economic potential; the timing and costs for production decisions; permitting timelines and requirements; exploration and planned exploration programs; and the Company’s general objectives and strategies.

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A variety of inherent risks, uncertainties and factors, many of which are beyond the Company’s control, affect the operations, performance and results of the Company and its business, and could cause actual events or results to differ materially from estimated or anticipated events or results expressed or implied by forward looking statements. Some of these risks, uncertainties and factors include: the potential impact of global health and global economic conditions on the Company’s business and operations, including: our ability to continue operations; and our ability to manage challenges presented by such conditions; the general economic, political and social impacts of  the continuing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, our ability to support the sustainability of our business including through the development of crisis management plans, increasing stock levels for key supplies, monitoring of guidance from the medical community, and engagement with local communities and authorities; fluctuations in the price of gold, silver and copper; the need to recalculate estimates of resources based on actual production experience; the failure to achieve production estimates; variations in the grade of ore mined; variations in the cost of operations; the availability of qualified personnel; the Company’s ability to obtain and maintain all necessary regulatory approvals and licenses; Orovalle’s ability to complete the permitting process of the El Valle Tailings Storage Facility increasing the storage capacity; Orovalle’s ability to complete the stabilization project of the legacy open pit wall; the Company’s ability to use cyanide in its mining operations; risks generally associated with mineral exploration and development, including the Company’s ability to continue to operate the El Valle and/or ability to resume long-term operations at the Carlés Mine; the Company’s ability to successfully implement an acid leaching circuit and ancillary facilities to process the current oxides stockpiles at Don Mario; the Company’s ability to successfully carry out development plans at Taguas; sufficient funding to carry out development plans at Taguas and to process the oxides stockpiles at Don Mario; EMIPA’s ability to complete the placement of the Bonds Program at Bolivia and any additional required financing to commence the OSP; the Company’s ability to acquire and develop mineral properties and to successfully integrate such acquisitions; the Company’s ability to execute on its strategy; the Company’s ability to obtain financing when required on terms that are acceptable to the Company; challenges to the Company’s interests in its property and mineral rights; current, pending and proposed legislative or regulatory developments or changes in political, social or economic conditions in the countries in which the Company operates; general economic conditions worldwide; the challenges presented by global health conditions; fluctuating operational costs such as, but not limited to, power supply costs; current and future environmental matters; and the risks identified in the Company’s disclosures. This list is not exhaustive of the factors that may affect any of the Company’s forward-looking statements and reference should also be made to the Company’s Disclosures for a description of additional risk factors.

Any forward-looking statements made herein with respect to the anticipated development and exploration of the Company’s mineral projects are intended to provide an overview of management’s expectations with respect to certain future activities of the Company and may not be appropriate for other purposes. Forward-looking statements are based on management’s current plans, estimates, projections, beliefs and opinions and, except as required by law, the Company does not undertake any obligation to update forward-looking statements should assumptions related to these plans, estimates, projections, beliefs and opinions change. Readers are cautioned not to put undue reliance on forward-looking statements. The forward-looking statements made in this information are intended to provide an overview of management’s expectations with respect to certain future operating activities of the Company and may not be appropriate for other purposes.

SOURCE Orvana Minerals Corp.

Cision

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Psychological shift unfolds in soft Aussie housing market: ‘Vendors feel pressure’

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Psychological shift unfolds in soft Aussie housing market: ‘Vendors feel pressure’
Is it becoming a buyers market? (Source: Getty)

Property markets move in cycles, and with interest rates rising and other pressures like high fuel costs, some markets are clearly slowing down. Many first-home buyers who have only ever seen markets going up are conditioned to think that when purchasing, competition is always intense and decisions need to be made quickly.

In those times, buyers often feel they need to act fast, stretch their budget and secure a property at almost any cost. But things have definitely changed.

In a softer market, the dynamic shifts. Properties take longer to sell, competition thins, and it’s the vendors who begin to feel pressure.

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For buyers who understand how to navigate that change, the balance of power quickly moves in their favour. The opportunity is not simply to buy at a lower price. It is to negotiate from a position of strength.

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If that’s you right now, these are the key skills first-home buyers need to take advantage of in softer market conditions.

The most important shift in a soft market is psychological. In a rising market, buyers often feel like they are competing for limited opportunities. In a softer market, the opposite is true. There are more properties available, fewer active buyers and less urgency overall. This gives buyers options.

When buyers understand that they are not competing with multiple parties on every property, their decision-making improves. They are more willing to walk away, compare opportunities and avoid overpaying. Negotiation strength comes from not needing to transact immediately. When that pressure is removed, buyers are able to engage more strategically.

One of the most common mistakes first-home buyers make is continuing to apply strategies that only work in rising markets. Auction urgency is a clear example. In strong markets, auctions often attract multiple bidders and create competitive tension. In softer conditions, properties are more likely to pass in, shifting the process away from a public bidding environment into a private negotiation.

This is where leverage increases.

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Private negotiations allow buyers to introduce conditions that protect their position. These may include finance clauses, longer settlement periods or price adjustments based on due diligence. Opportunities that are rarely available in competitive markets become standard in softer ones.

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Finance Committee approves an average increase of University tuition by 3.6 percent

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Finance Committee approves an average increase of University tuition by 3.6 percent

The Board of Visitors Finance Committee met Thursday and approved a 3.6 percent average increase in tuition, a 4.8 percent average increase in meal plan costs and a 5 percent increase in the cost of double-room housing for the 2026-27 school year. The approval was unanimous amongst Board members, though some expressed resistance to the increases before voting in favor of them. 

The Committee heard from Jennifer Wagner Davis, executive vice president and chief operating officer, and Donna Price Henry, chancellor of the College at Wise, about reasons for the raise in tuition and rates. According to Davis and Henry, salary increases for professors and legislation passed by the General Assembly contribute to tuition and rates increases.  

The Finance Committee, chaired by Vice Rector Victoria Harker, is responsible for the University’s financial affairs and business operations, and the Committee manages the budget, tuition and student fees. 

Changes in tuition vary between schools, with the School of Law seeing at most a 5.1 percent increase, the School of Engineering & Applied Science seeing at most a 3.2 percent increase and the College of Arts and Sciences seeing at most a 3.1 percent increase in tuition for the 2026-27 school year. 

For the 2026-27 school year at the College at Wise, the Committee also unanimously approved a 2.5 percent average increase in tuition, a 3.8 percent increase in meal plans and a 2 percent increase in the cost of housing.

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Last year, the Committee approved a 3 percent average increase in tuition, a 5.5 percent increase in meal plans and a 5.5 percent increase in the cost of housing for the University.

Davis cited increased costs as the primary reason for the approved increase in tuition. She said that the budget that could be passed by the General Assembly for June 30, 2027 through June 30, 2028 could increase professor salaries — University professors receive raises via this process. Davis said that the Senate and House of Delegates have separate proposals dealing with the pay increases that are currently unresolved, with House Bill 30 raising salaries by 2 percent and Senate Bill 30 raising salaries by 3 percent. 

Davis said every percent increase in faculty salaries costs the University $15 million annually, and the Commonwealth will increase funding to the University by $1-2 million to help pay for that increase. According to Davis, the most common way to stabilize the budgetary imbalance caused by raised salaries is through tuition raises. 

Beyond the increase in salary, Davis cited the minimum wage increase, inflation and Virginia Military Survivors & Dependents Education Program as increased costs to the University. VMSDEP is a program that gives education benefits to spouses and children of disabled veterans or military service members killed, missing in action or taken prisoner. Davis said that the program is “partially unfunded” and could cost the University somewhere between $3.6 to $6 million, depending on how many students qualify for the program.

Davis spoke on other contributing factors to the increase in tuition, specifically collective bargaining — which allows workers to bargain for better wages and working conditions.

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“If we look at other institutions or other states that have collective bargaining, [collective bargaining] does put an upward pressure on tuition,” Davis said.

Prior to Thursday’s meeting, the Committee heard the proposal for tuition increases from Davis and Henry April 6 in a Finance Committee tuition workshop with public comment. During the tuition workshop, tuition increases ranged from 3 to 4.5 percent for the University and 2 to 3 percent for the College at Wise. Both increases approved Thursday are within the ranges originally proposed.

Meal plan costs, on average, will be increasing by 4.8 percent in the upcoming academic year. Davis said that the University has been expanding dining options with the opening of the Gaston House and new locations for the Ivy Corridor student housing that is still in progress. She also said that the University has been taking steps to increase the availability of allergen-friendly food options. 

Davis shared that the 5 percent cost increase in housing is due to the expansion of student housing in the Ivy Corridor. Davis also said that there will be 3,000 new units added to the Charlottesville housing market by 2027, of which 780 beds will be for University housing. Davis said that she hopes the Ivy Corridor housing would “free up” the city housing supply by having more students live on Grounds.

Board member Amanda Pillion said she was “concerned” about how tuition increases would harm rural families — she said the constant increases in cost could make a University education out of reach for middle-income Virginians. 

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“This is the second governor I’ve served under. Both times I’ve heard affordability, affordability, affordability,” Pillion said. “We need to really be conscious of the fact that … there is a large group of people that [are middle-income] that these increases [in tuition and fees] are really tough for.”

The Committee also approved a renovation for The Park — an 18-acre recreational hub in North Grounds — which will cost $10 million. As part of the renovation, The Park will include a maintenance facility, storm water systems and a maintenance access route. Davis said the renovation will address safety and security issues for the 200 people that use The Park daily. According to Davis, the University will use $2 million of institutional funds and issue $8 million of debt to fund the renovation. 

The Finance Committee will reconvene during the regularly scheduled June Board meetings.

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A Protracted US–Iran War Could Strain Climate Finance From Wealthy Countries to Developing Nations – Inside Climate News

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A Protracted US–Iran War Could Strain Climate Finance From Wealthy Countries to Developing Nations – Inside Climate News

WASHINGTON, D.C.—The ongoing war in Iran is casting a long shadow over the climate finance commitments countries agreed to in 2024, experts warned, as surging oil prices and rising defense budgets put further pressure on the limited pot of money developing nations are counting on to stave off worsening impacts from a warming planet.

The World Bank and the International Monetary Fund’s annual spring meetings are underway in the capital this week, with a focus on a coordinated global response to a world economy under pressure from slower growth and rising debt, exacerbating global inequities. 

The U.S. war in Iran adds new supply-chain challenges. In a press briefing Tuesday, the IMF slashed its growth forecast to 3.1 percent for the year, down from 3.3 percent in January, with global inflation rising to 4.4 percent. 

“Our severe scenario assumes that energy supply disruptions extend into next year, with greater macro instability. Global growth falls to 2 percent this year and next, while inflation exceeds 6 percent,” said Pierre‑Olivier Gourinchas, the IMF’s director of research. 

The blunt assessment has caused a scramble to determine what financial support the institution can offer to member states. And it has raised fresh questions about climate-finance obligations, already under strain from donor-country budget cuts and the United States jettisoning global climate commitments under the second Trump administration. One of President Donald Trump’s first actions back in office last year was ordering the U.S. to withdraw from the Paris climate agreement.

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Since the COVID-19 pandemic, wealthier countries that promised climate finance have experienced widening fiscal deficits and rising debt, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development found in its latest assessment. As a result, aid from donor countries has already declined sharply—dropping almost 25 percent in 2025 compared to 2024. Even before the Iran conflict began, that was projected to drop further this year. 

COP29, the global climate conference held in late 2024 in Baku, Azerbaijan, set a commitment of $300 billion per year by 2035, with a broader goal of reaching $1.3 trillion annually from public and private sources. Called the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG), the arrangement replaced the previous $100 billion-a-year commitment that wealthy nations had met belatedly in 2022, two years after the deadline. 

Developing nations widely criticized the $300 billion figure as grossly inadequate, given the scale of the climate crisis. These countries are among the least responsible for the pollution driving that crisis and among the hardest hit by its effects. 

The Iran war has triggered a new set of worries as top economists and experts weigh potential impact and likely mitigation strategies. 

“Even before the Iran conflict, reaching the NCQG target would have been difficult, particularly with the U.S. withdrawing from the Paris Agreement. The war worsens the outlook,” said Gautam Jain, senior research scholar at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University.

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Plumes of smoke rise over the oil depot tanks hit by overnight attacks on March 8 in Tehran, Iran. Credit: Kaveh Kazemi/Getty Images
Plumes of smoke rise over the oil depot tanks hit by overnight attacks on March 8 in Tehran, Iran. Credit: Kaveh Kazemi/Getty Images

He said sustained disruption of the Strait of Hormuz would exacerbate the problem and the effects would weigh on the global economy. As a result, aid budgets would decline and the political pushback to external spending would increase. 

The conflict is “pushing energy security to the forefront of government agendas,” Jain said. That will likely strengthen incentives to deploy more renewables and other forms of domestic clean energy, but the war’s economic convulsions could cut both ways for the energy transition.

“In low-income countries, the transition could be significantly delayed, given limited fiscal capacity to absorb sustained energy price shocks,” Jain said.

One of the main priorities for the World Bank during the meetings in Washington is to develop a new Climate Change Action Plan to replace the one expiring in June. “In the current geopolitical context, progress on this front looks quite unlikely,” Jain said.

Jon Sward, environment project manager at the Bretton Woods Project, which monitors World Bank and IMF policies, said countries that used to fund climate finance are now choosing to spend that money on other priorities.

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The Gulf crisis exposed the fragility of a global economic system tethered to fossil fuel extraction and use, Sward noted. For countries dependent on fossil fuel imports, “this is yet another price shock, and quickly diversifying to renewables is certainly an option that many countries are looking at,” he said in an email.

He said that although multilateral institutions such as the World Bank and the IMF have begun to assess the conflict’s fallout, it is not yet clear what their response will be or how the World Bank’s climate finance would be affected.

“All of this points to the need for more serious discussions on pausing debt repayments for affected countries and the mobilisation of non-debt creating forms of finance, in order to address the multiple, overlapping shocks facing countries in the Global South, in particular,” he said in his email.

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Experts said that rising security and defense expenditures were also cutting into an already limited pot of money badly needed by developing countries struggling to cope with climate challenges.   

“The system was already too fragile given that the U.S. leads all the major multilateral development banks … and has disavowed these targets,” said Kevin Gallagher, director of the Global Development Policy Center at Boston University. On top of that, he said, U.S. threats to abandon NATO’s European countries incentivizes them to prioritize  defense budgets over climate finance.

He said developing countries are already under pressure to cough up climate funding on their own. The current conflict could make that nearly impossible.  

“This year was supposed to be putting together a roadmap to take the $300 billion annual target to the agreed upon $1.3 trillion. This is likely to be abandoned unless new donors such as [the] UAE, China and others step in to fill the gap left from the West,” Gallagher said in an email. 

The crisis in the Persian Gulf makes the loudest case for renewables, he said. “The energy security argument from this conflict is to diversify from fossil fuels. The Dutch took that cue after the Middle East oil shock of the 1970s to build the world’s best wind turbines, and China did after Middle East conflicts in this century. Fossil fuels are now a bad bet on security, economic and climate grounds. The writing is on the wall.”

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Gallagher said the World Bank should accelerate solar and wind technology programs across the world. “If the Fund and the Bank don’t rise to this occasion,” he said, “not only is the global economy and climate at stake, but so is the legitimacy of these institutions.” 

Gaia Larsen, a climate finance expert at the World Resources Institute, said it’s too early to know whether stronger interest in energy independence through renewables is translating into shifts in investment. But “if we’re trying to think about long-term peace and long-term access to energy, then renewables are really increasing in prominence,” she said.

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