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Markets keep the faith – but oil staying above $100 could test that optimism | Nils Pratley

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Markets keep the faith – but oil staying above 0 could test that optimism | Nils Pratley

Was it only at the new year that the fanfare was heard for the FTSE 100 index breaking through 10,000 for the first time? It was – on 2 January – and the index then added another 900 points by the end of February. On Thursday, the Footsie briefly fell below that round number as Iran struck Qatar’s enormous Ras Laffan complex, which normally supplies a fifth of the world’s liquefied natural gas, before closing at 10,063, down 2.3% on the day.

There are two ways to view that price action. One is to say the sharp reversal from the peak represents a necessarily severe reaction to the war on Iran. Another is to conclude that a flat year-to-date return, after a bountiful 20% gain in 2025, suggests stock markets have barely begun to take seriously the inflationary impact if the war lasts many more weeks, or even months, and keeps oil above $100 a barrel.

“Markets are very resilient and complacent, ​and we are a bit surprised about that,” said Nicolai Tangen, the head of Norway’s $2tn (£1.5tn) sovereign wealth fund, earlier this week. Well, quite.

The resilience of companies themselves, as he suggested, is perhaps one explanation. Firms can cut costs and try to pass on increases in input prices. Recent shocks, such as the Covid pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, may have forced them to inject greater flexibility into their supply chains. It is still far too early to hear profit warnings. In the case of the Footsie, a size-weighted index, there are also a few big constituents that obviously benefit from higher oil and gas prices: Shell and BP are up 24% and 31% respectively since the new year.

Another explanation is that investors may be right – despite the strike on Ras Laffan – to keep the faith and believe that energy prices will calm down soon. That seems to be the consensus opinion. Bank of America’s closely watched regular poll of fund managers this week found that only 11% expect a barrel of Brent to be over $90 by the end of the year, and the average forecast was just $76.

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That finding, though, also suggests there is plenty of room for expectations to be upset if the energy price shock intensifies. The pass-through effects would be fairly rapid. In a UK context, current oil and gas prices “are already enough to add around 1% to headline inflation in the coming months, while shortages of fertilisers could push food inflation higher later in the year”, reckons David Rees, the head of global economics at the fund manager Schroders.

In the circumstances, the Bank of England’s decision to hold interest rates was the only one possible. Policymakers are as clueless on the length of the war, and the cost of energy six weeks or six months from now, as stock market investors. The Bank’s messaging was inevitably of the fudged variety. On one hand, it stands “ready to act as necessary” on interest rates to control inflation. On the other, “markets are getting ahead of themselves in assuming rate rises”, said the governor, Andrew Bailey.

But one suspects we won’t have to wait too much longer to see central banks’ real analysis of the inflation risks. If oil stays at $100 for another month, higher interest rates will be the way to bet.

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UK financial regulators rush to assess risks of Anthropic’s latest AI model, FT reports

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UK financial regulators rush to assess risks of Anthropic’s latest AI model, FT reports
UK financial regulators ​are holding ‌urgent talks with ​the ​government’s cyber security agency ⁠and ​major banks ​to assess risks posed by ​the ​new artificial intelligence ‌model ⁠from Anthropic, the Financial Times ​reported ​on ⁠Sunday.
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Benin finance minister expected to coast to presidential election win

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Benin finance minister expected to coast to presidential election win
Benin’s long-serving finance minister Romuald Wadagni is expected to coast to victory in a presidential election ​on Sunday, buoyed by strong economic growth and the absence of a credible challenger even as fears ‌grow over the threat posed by jihadists in the north.
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Opinion: Teaching kids how to manage money is now a reality in New Hampshire – Concord Monitor

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Opinion: Teaching kids how to manage money is now a reality in New Hampshire – Concord Monitor

Money looks — and feels — different than it did a generation ago. The era of checkbooks and paper cash is fading; in its place is an all-digital ecosystem of instant payments, peer-to-peer apps, online shopping and real‑time betting markets. That shift has changed not only how people transact, but how they think about money. If we want our children to grow into financially capable adults, schools must catch up. New Hampshire is finally doing just that.

Today’s payments are frictionless. Venmo, PayPal, Zelle and similar apps let teens split dinner bills, send gifts or trade cash for concert tickets with a tap — and without the tactile reminder that handing over cash provides. That digital ease reshapes spending psychology: abstraction and immediacy can weaken the emotional “pain” of parting with money, making impulse purchases and casual transfers feel less consequential.

Layered on top of effortless payments are prediction markets and widely available sports gambling. Betting apps normalize risk‑taking behavior and create fresh avenues for rapid losses — especially among young people who grow up seeing real‑time odds, live lines and social feeds celebrating wins. Online shopping amplifies the problem. The fewer trips consumers make to local retailers, the more normalized becomes a culture of instant gratification: one click, next‑day delivery and a new item arrives before the buyer has reconsidered the impulse.

These trends matter beyond individual households. Roughly two‑thirds of the U.S. economy depends on consumer spending. When consumers overspend, accumulate avoidable debt or lack basic savings and investment know‑how, the ripple effects are real: financial stress at home, reduced long‑term economic resilience and less stable local economies.

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That’s why financial education in schools is no longer optional. For over 25 years, the NH Jump$tart Coalition has advocated teaching personal finance in classrooms across the state. This fall brings a major milestone: beginning September for the 2026-2027 academic year, New Hampshire will require a standalone half‑credit course in personal finance for graduation, in addition to the existing half‑credit economics requirement. New Hampshire joins about 30 states that have adopted similar graduation requirements — a recognition that personal finance skills are foundational, not extracurricular. Reinforcing that momentum, Governor Kelly Ayotte has declared April as Youth Financial Literacy Month, a statewide acknowledgment that building these skills must start early.

A required course gives students structured exposure to budgeting, saving, credit, debt management, insurance, investing basics and the behavioral forces that drive spending. It provides a space to discuss how digital payments and gambling products influence decision‑making, how to spot predatory financial offers and how to build financial habits that support long‑term goals rather than immediate gratification.

But passing a graduation requirement is only the first step. Teachers need support. NH Jump$tart and partner organizations are working to provide professional development and classroom resources — many at no cost — so educators can teach personal finance confidently and effectively. Free curricula, interactive simulations, lesson plans and workshops help translate policy into practice in diverse classrooms.

Our next focus must be on measurement: determining what effective financial education looks like and how to scale it. We need clear metrics to evaluate whether students leave the course with durable knowledge, sound habits, and the confidence to make smart financial choices in a digital world. Measuring outcomes will help refine curricula, target teacher training and ensure the investment actually improves financial capability.

This new requirement, bolstered by the Governor’s proclamation and years of advocacy, signals a shift in priorities: New Hampshire recognizes that helping students manage money is as essential as reading and arithmetic. With two‑thirds of the economy riding on consumer choices, teaching financial literacy is not merely a personal benefit — it’s an economic imperative. By equipping young people to navigate digital payments, resist instant gratification and understand risk, we strengthen families, communities and the broader state economy.

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New Hampshire has taken a meaningful step. Now we must ensure schools, teachers, parents and students have the tools and the evidence to make that step count.

Daniel H. Hebert is the state president of NH Jump$tart Coalition. He lives in Hillsborough.

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