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Markets keep the faith – but oil staying above $100 could test that optimism | Nils Pratley

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Markets keep the faith – but oil staying above 0 could test that optimism | Nils Pratley

Was it only at the new year that the fanfare was heard for the FTSE 100 index breaking through 10,000 for the first time? It was – on 2 January – and the index then added another 900 points by the end of February. On Thursday, the Footsie briefly fell below that round number as Iran struck Qatar’s enormous Ras Laffan complex, which normally supplies a fifth of the world’s liquefied natural gas, before closing at 10,063, down 2.3% on the day.

There are two ways to view that price action. One is to say the sharp reversal from the peak represents a necessarily severe reaction to the war on Iran. Another is to conclude that a flat year-to-date return, after a bountiful 20% gain in 2025, suggests stock markets have barely begun to take seriously the inflationary impact if the war lasts many more weeks, or even months, and keeps oil above $100 a barrel.

“Markets are very resilient and complacent, ​and we are a bit surprised about that,” said Nicolai Tangen, the head of Norway’s $2tn (£1.5tn) sovereign wealth fund, earlier this week. Well, quite.

The resilience of companies themselves, as he suggested, is perhaps one explanation. Firms can cut costs and try to pass on increases in input prices. Recent shocks, such as the Covid pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, may have forced them to inject greater flexibility into their supply chains. It is still far too early to hear profit warnings. In the case of the Footsie, a size-weighted index, there are also a few big constituents that obviously benefit from higher oil and gas prices: Shell and BP are up 24% and 31% respectively since the new year.

Another explanation is that investors may be right – despite the strike on Ras Laffan – to keep the faith and believe that energy prices will calm down soon. That seems to be the consensus opinion. Bank of America’s closely watched regular poll of fund managers this week found that only 11% expect a barrel of Brent to be over $90 by the end of the year, and the average forecast was just $76.

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That finding, though, also suggests there is plenty of room for expectations to be upset if the energy price shock intensifies. The pass-through effects would be fairly rapid. In a UK context, current oil and gas prices “are already enough to add around 1% to headline inflation in the coming months, while shortages of fertilisers could push food inflation higher later in the year”, reckons David Rees, the head of global economics at the fund manager Schroders.

In the circumstances, the Bank of England’s decision to hold interest rates was the only one possible. Policymakers are as clueless on the length of the war, and the cost of energy six weeks or six months from now, as stock market investors. The Bank’s messaging was inevitably of the fudged variety. On one hand, it stands “ready to act as necessary” on interest rates to control inflation. On the other, “markets are getting ahead of themselves in assuming rate rises”, said the governor, Andrew Bailey.

But one suspects we won’t have to wait too much longer to see central banks’ real analysis of the inflation risks. If oil stays at $100 for another month, higher interest rates will be the way to bet.

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Finance

Proximo Congress 2026: US Energy & Infrastructure Finance | Insights | Mayer Brown

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Proximo Congress 2026: US Energy & Infrastructure Finance | Insights | Mayer Brown

Mayer Brown is a proud sponsor of Proximo Congress 2026. This senior meeting of the US energy, infrastructure, and digital infrastructure finance community is shaped around the questions credit and investment committees are actually asking in 2026: how asset classes are converging, how risk is being priced in a recalibrated policy and geopolitical environment, and how public and private capital are being structured together to deliver projects at scale.

Mayer Brown has also been recognized for three separate awards which will be presented during the event. These awards include:

  • Proximo North America Transport Deal of the Year 2025 – SR 400 Peach Partners
  • Proximo North America Rail Deal of the Year 2025 – Brightline West
  • Proximo North America LNG Deal of the Year 2025 – Port Arthur LNG 2

For more information, visit the event website. 

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Finance

What are nonconforming mortgages and what are the risks?

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What are nonconforming mortgages and what are the risks?

If you have ever taken out a mortgage, you’ll know there are a lot of requirements to meet. You may need to put down a certain amount and have a debt-to-income ratio below a certain threshold. You may also run into limits on how much you can borrow or what sources of income the lender will count.

These rules do not apply to all mortgages — just to conforming mortgages, which is what the majority of borrowers take out. However, mortgage lenders are increasingly offering what are known as nonconforming loans, or mortgages that do not “comply with every one of the strict standards put in place after the housing crisis,” said The Wall Street Journal. While “still a small portion,” the “share of mortgages using alternative lending practices” has “doubled in size over the past three years.”

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Financial Stress Is Changing What Consumers Value in Credit Cards | PYMNTS.com

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Financial Stress Is Changing What Consumers Value in Credit Cards | PYMNTS.com

What U.S. consumers ask of their credit cards has changed. For financially stressed households, it has little to do with rewards.

As more households turn to credit cards to manage liquidity and cover everyday expenses, a new set of practical concerns is driving card behavior: Can the card help avoid a missed payment? Can it make balances easier to track? Can it provide enough visibility into available credit and upcoming obligations to help manage an uncertain month?

Those concerns are beginning to reorder what consumers value most in their credit card relationships.

That evidence is clear in “Winning Top of Wallet: How Credit Card Apps Shape Choice,” a PYMNTS Intelligence and Elan Credit Card report examining how consumers use mobile apps to manage spending, payments and engagement across their credit card portfolios. The report found 30% of consumers primarily use credit cards to build credit or extend purchasing power, while another 22% primarily use cards for cash flow management, together outweighing rewards-based usage.

The divide is more pronounced among financially stressed households. Among consumers living paycheck to paycheck and struggling to pay bills, 40% cited credit dependence as their primary reason for using credit cards. Just 11% pointed to rewards.

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For a growing share of consumers, credit cards are functioning less like discretionary spending products and more like liquidity management tools.

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What Matters Most

That evolution is also changing which app features matter most.

Among cash flow-focused consumers, 31% said scheduling payments or autopay encouraged them to spend more on a card, while 27% cited alerts and reminders. Credit-motivated consumers showed similarly high engagement with tools tied to available credit visibility and payment timing.

Rewards still influence spending behavior, particularly among financially stable households. Half of consumers who prioritize rewards said tracking or redeeming rewards through a mobile app encouraged them to spend more on the card.

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But the report suggests that financial stress changes the hierarchy of engagement. As household budgets tighten, rewards become less central than predictability, visibility and control.

That shift helps explain why mobile apps increasingly influence which cards become top of wallet.

Among credit-dependent consumers, 77% said the quality of a credit card app influences which card they use most often. Credit-dependent consumers also reported the highest app adoption levels, with 77% using their primary card’s app regularly or occasionally.

The competition, in other words, is no longer simply about card acquisition. It is about becoming the card consumers rely on to navigate everyday financial management.

Digital Experience Becomes a Financial Retention Tool

The report also suggests that digital experience increasingly shapes retention risk.

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Nearly 1 in 4 cardholders said a poor app or digital experience contributed to reduced card use. Among Gen Z consumers, that figure climbed to 45%.

At the same time, 7 in 10 cardholders said app quality influences which card becomes their primary card, underscoring how mobile interfaces are becoming embedded directly into consumer payment behavior.

For issuers, the implications extend beyond app design.

Consumers living paycheck to paycheck hold nearly as many credit cards as financially stable households, meaning financially stressed consumers are not disengaging from credit entirely. Instead, they are becoming more selective about which cards feel easiest to manage and most useful during periods of financial pressure.

Rewards and promotional offers still matter, particularly among affluent and financially stable consumers. But for a growing segment of households, the most valuable card may be the one that reduces uncertainty around balances, payment timing and available liquidity.

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In a crowded multi-card market, financial visibility itself is becoming part of the product.

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