Finance
'Last chance saloon': UK finance minister expected to pledge pre-election tax cuts
British Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt said earlier this month the U.K. would not enter a recession this year.
Hannah Mckay | Reuters
LONDON â Economists expect U.K. Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt to use a small fiscal windfall to deliver a modest package of tax cuts at his Spring Budget on Wednesday.
Heading into what will likely be the Conservative government’s last fiscal event before the country’s upcoming General Election, Hunt is under pressure to offer a sweetener to voters as his party trails the main opposition Labour Party by more than 20 points across all national polls.
But he must also navigate the constraints of fragile public finances and a stagnant economy that recently entered a modest technical recession.
On the upside, inflation has fallen faster than anticipated and market expectations for interest rates are well below where they were going into Hunt’s Autumn Statement in November.
The Treasury pre-announced plans over the weekend to deliver up to £1.8 billion ($2.3 billion) worth of benefits by boosting public sector productivity, including releasing police time for more frontline work.
The Independent Office for Budget Responsibility estimates that returning to levels of pre-pandemic productivity could save the Treasury up to £20 billion per year.
Hunt will also announce £360 million in funding to boost research and development (R&D) and manufacturing projects across the life sciences, automotive and aerospace sectors, the Treasury said Monday.
However, the big questions over tax cuts remain heading into Wednesday’s statement.
Increased fiscal headroom
“On balance, we think Chancellor Hunt’s fiscal headroom will have likely increased â but only marginally, and nowhere close to what he had in the Autumn Statement (owing largely to the fall in expected debt costs),” Deutsche Bank Senior Economist Sanjay Raja said in a research note Thursday.
The German lender estimates that the government’s fiscal headroom will have grown from around £13 billion to around £18.5 billion, and that tax cuts are “very likely” the first port of call. Raja suggested the finance minister will err on the side of caution in loosening fiscal policy, favoring supply side support over boosting demand.
“Supply side measures are more likely in our view, particularly with the Bank of England more amenable to loosening monetary policy,” Raja said.
“Therefore, tax cuts to national insurance contributions (NICs) and changes to child benefits are more likely to come in the Spring Budget (in contrast to earlier expectations of income tax cuts).”
A substantial cut to National Insurance was the highlight of Hunt’s Autumn Statement, though economists were quick to point out that its benefit to payers would be more than erased by the effect of existing freezes on personal income tax thresholds â known as the “fiscal drag.”
The U.K. National Insurance is a tax on workers’ income and employers’ profits to pay for state social security benefits, including the state pension.
Raja also suggested an extension of the government’s existing freeze on fuel duty remains a possibility, and that some spending cuts will likely be used to partially offset a loosening of fiscal policy.
In total, Deutsche Bank expects Hunt to deliver net loosening of £15 billion over the coming fiscal year, dropping to around £12.5 billion in the medium-term.
“The outlook for the public finances remains precarious. Slight changes to the macroeconomic outlook could result in big shifts to the public finances. The Chancellor continues to walk a fine line between managing his fiscal rules now and rising austerity later,” Raja said.
“To be sure, big questions on the public finances remain â including whether spending cuts, or limited rises in some areas, remain realistic to tackle the rising strain in public services, and the Government’s own ambitions around net-zero, defence, and overseas development spending.”
BNP Paribas economists expect a more modest package of tax cuts worth around £10 billion across the 2024/25 fiscal year, and projected that the government will start the year with a fiscal windfall of around £11 billion.
The French bank agreed that the reductions will be aimed at stimulating labor supply, with “little impact on inflation and thus the Bank of England.”
“Our base case is that the government will spend GBP10bn of the near-term fiscal windfall and use the additional medium-term fiscal space to cut personal taxes,” economists Matthew Swannell and Dani Stoilova said in a research note entitled “last-chance saloon.”
They also expect the Treasury to postpone the March 2024 rise in fuel duty for another 12 months, at a cost of £3.7 billion a year, and to introduce a permanent 1 pence reduction in the basic rate of income tax at a cost of between £6 billion and £7.35 billion per year.
“The overall effect of this policy package would be to leave medium-term fiscal headroom roughly back where it started at GBP12.7bn,” they added.
“With the Conservative party trailing in the opinion polls and the Budget possibly the last opportunity to loosen fiscal policy before a general election, we expect Chancellor Hunt to once again, at least, spend any additional fiscal space available to him.”
Open Lending (LPRO) has secured its third partnership with an automotive captive finance company, marking a significant expansion of its Lenders Protection™ program. The agreement will enable the unnamed OEM partner to extend lending services to near- and non-prime consumers through automated decisioning and default insurance coverage.
The implementation is scheduled for early 2025, with testing nearly complete. The partnership aims to help the captive finance company expand its business by responsibly lending to consumers with lower credit scores than their traditional borrowers. Open Lending’s solution will integrate into the lender’s processes, from initial application scoring to loan structuring and servicing, using alternative data to price loans based on applicants’ financial profiles and vehicle valuations.
Open Lending (LPRO) ha consolidato la sua terza partnership con un’azienda finanziaria automobilistica, segnando un’espansione significativa del suo programma Lenders Protection™. L’accordo permetterà al partner OEM non ancora nominato di estendere i servizi di prestito a consumatori near- e non prime attraverso decisioni automatizzate e copertura assicurativa contro i default.
L’implementazione è prevista per inizio 2025, con i test quasi completati. La partnership mira ad aiutare l’azienda finanziaria a espandere la propria attività prestando responsabilmente a consumatori con punteggi di credito inferiori rispetto ai tradizionali prestatari. La soluzione di Open Lending si integrerà nei processi del prestatore, dalla valutazione iniziale della domanda alla strutturazione e gestione dei prestiti, utilizzando dati alternativi per valutare i prestiti in base ai profili finanziari dei richiedenti e alle valutazioni dei veicoli.
Open Lending (LPRO) ha asegurado su tercera asociación con una empresa de financiación cautiva automotriz, marcando una expansión significativa de su programa Lenders Protection™. El acuerdo permitirá al socio OEM no nombrado extender los servicios de préstamo a consumidores near- y non-prime a través de decisiones automatizadas y cobertura de seguro contra impagos.
La implementación está programada para principios de 2025, con las pruebas casi completas. La asociación tiene como objetivo ayudar a la empresa de financiación cautiva a expandir su negocio prestando responsablemente a consumidores con puntuaciones de crédito más bajas que sus prestatarios tradicionales. La solución de Open Lending se integrará en los procesos del prestamista, desde la evaluación inicial de la solicitud hasta la estructuración y el servicio del préstamo, utilizando datos alternativos para fijar tasas basadas en los perfiles financieros de los solicitantes y las valoraciones de los vehículos.
Open Lending (LPRO)는 Automotive captive finance 회사와 세 번째 파트너십을 체결하여 Lenders Protection™ 프로그램을 크게 확장했습니다. 이번 계약을 통해 이름이 밝혀지지 않은 OEM 파트너는 자동화된 의사 결정과 디폴트 보험 보장을 통해 네어 프라임 및 비프라임 소비자에게 대출 서비스를 제공할 수 있게 됩니다.
구현은 2025년 초로 예정되어 있으며, 테스트는 거의 완료되었습니다. 이번 파트너십은 금융 회사가 전통적인 차주보다 낮은 신용 점수를 가진 소비자에게 책임감 있게 대출을 확대하는 데 도움을 주기 위한 것입니다. Open Lending의 솔루션은 초기 신청 평가부터 대출 구조화 및 서비스에 이르기까지 대출자의 프로세스에 통합되어 신청자의 재무 프로필 및 차량 평가를 기반으로 대출 가격을 설정하기 위해 대체 데이터를 사용할 것입니다.
Open Lending (LPRO) a sécurisé son troisième partenariat avec une entreprise de financement captive automobile, marquant une expansion significative de son programme Lenders Protection™. Cet accord permettra au partenaire OEM non nommé d’étendre les services de prêt aux consommateurs near- et non-prime grâce à une décision automatisée et une couverture d’assurance contre les défauts de paiement.
L’implémentation est prévue pour début 2025, les tests étant presque terminés. Ce partenariat vise à aider l’entreprise de financement captive à développer son activité en prêtant de manière responsable à des consommateurs avec des scores de crédit inférieurs à ceux de ses emprunteurs traditionnels. La solution d’Open Lending sera intégrée dans les processus du prêteur, depuis l’évaluation initiale des demandes jusqu’à la structuration et le service des prêts, en utilisant des données alternatives pour fixer les taux des prêts en fonction des profils financiers des demandeurs et des évaluations des véhicules.
Open Lending (LPRO) hat seine dritte Partnerschaft mit einem Automobilfinanzierungsunternehmen gesichert, was eine bedeutende Erweiterung seines Lenders Protection™ Programms darstellt. Die Vereinbarung ermöglicht es dem nicht genannten OEM-Partner, Kreditdienstleistungen an Near- und Non-Prime-Verbraucher durch automatisierte Entscheidungsfindung und Ausfallversicherungsdeckung anzubieten.
Die Implementierung ist für Anfang 2025 geplant, die Tests sind nahezu abgeschlossen. Die Partnerschaft zielt darauf ab, dem Finanzierungsunternehmen zu helfen, sein Geschäft zu erweitern, indem es verantwortungsbewusst an Verbraucher mit niedrigeren Kreditwerten als seine traditionellen Kreditnehmer vergibt. Die Lösung von Open Lending wird in die Prozesse des Kreditgebers integriert, von der initialen Antragsbewertung bis hin zur Strukturierung und Verwaltung von Krediten, wobei alternative Daten verwendet werden, um Kredite basierend auf den finanziellen Profilen der Antragsteller und den Fahrzeugbewertungen zu berechnen.
Positive
- Secured third OEM captive finance company partnership, expanding market presence
- Partnership implementation set for early 2025, indicating near-term revenue potential
- Demonstrates growing acceptance of Lenders Protection™ program in automotive lending
Insights
The partnership with a third OEM captive finance company marks a significant strategic expansion for Open Lending. This deal opens up access to a broader customer base in the near- and non-prime auto lending market, potentially driving substantial revenue growth. The timing of the rollout in early 2025 suggests a meaningful impact on future earnings.
The agreement demonstrates Open Lending’s growing market penetration in the automotive financing sector, particularly with captive finance companies. Their Lenders Protection™ program’s ability to facilitate lending to lower credit spectrum consumers while managing risk through default insurance coverage presents a compelling value proposition. This could translate into increased loan origination volumes and recurring revenue streams.
The auto financing market is experiencing a strategic shift as OEM captive finance companies seek to expand their lending portfolios to near- and non-prime consumers. Open Lending’s third major captive partnership validates their technology-driven approach and positions them favorably in this growing market segment. The integration of alternative data for loan structuring and risk assessment represents a competitive advantage in reaching underserved borrowers.
This expansion aligns with industry trends showing increased focus on financial inclusion while maintaining prudent risk management. The partnership could strengthen Open Lending’s market position and create barriers to entry for competitors.
Agreement demonstrates continued importance of near- and non-prime consumers to captive lenders and Company’s industry leadership
AUSTIN, Texas, Dec. 17, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Open Lending Corporation (Nasdaq: LPRO) (the “Company” or “Open Lending”), an industry trailblazer in lending enablement and risk analytics solutions for financial institutions, today announced that it entered into an agreement with the captive finance company of a premier automaker to begin utilizing Open Lending’s flagship Lenders Protection™ program. This is the Company’s third such partnership with an automotive captive finance company. This agreement will enable the Company’s newest OEM partner to access more near- and non-prime consumers with the unique benefits of Open Lending’s automated decisioning and default insurance coverage.
“We couldn’t be more excited about the addition of a third OEM captive finance company to our customer base,“ said Chuck Jehl, CEO of Open Lending. “This company desired to expand its business by responsibly lending to consumers who are deeper in the credit spectrum than most of their borrowers have historically been. As with so many of Open Lending’s customers, our Lenders Protection solution is the perfect fit. This new relationship further validates Open Lending’s value proposition to auto lenders generally. Full testing and implementation is near completion with a targeted rollout scheduled to begin in early 2025.”
“Signing our third captive finance company is an important milestone for Open Lending,” Mr. Jehl added. “I’d like to thank our co-founder and enterprise account consultant, Ross Jessup, for all his efforts in making today’s announcement a reality.”
“Our expertise in near- and non-prime lending was a significant factor in this captive finance company’s decision to partner with Open Lending,” said Mr. Jessup. “This partnership helps lenders grow safely, strengthens dealer relationships, and ensures OEMs retain their customers within the brand.”
Open Lending’s approach to integration will assist with efficiencies within the captive finance company’s process, from initial scoring of an application, to loan structuring and pricing, and all the way through servicing. Using alternative data, Lenders Protection prices and structures automotive loans according to each applicant’s unique financial profile and vehicle valuation, enabling financial institutions to securely offer loan opportunities to near- and non-prime borrowers.
Learn more at openlending.com.
About Open Lending
Open Lending (NASDAQ: LPRO) provides loan analytics, risk-based pricing, risk modeling, and default insurance to auto lenders throughout the United States. For over 20 years, we have been empowering financial institutions to create profitable auto loan portfolios with less risk and more reward. For more information, please visit www.openlending.com.
Contact
Open Lending Media Inquiries
press@openlending.com
Open Lending Investor Relations Inquiries
InvestorRelations@openlending.com
FAQ
When will Open Lending (LPRO) launch its partnership with the new OEM captive finance company?
Open Lending plans to begin the rollout of its partnership with the new OEM captive finance company in early 2025.
How many OEM captive finance company partnerships does Open Lending (LPRO) now have?
With this new agreement, Open Lending now has partnerships with three OEM captive finance companies.
What services will Open Lending (LPRO) provide to the new OEM partner?
Open Lending will provide its Lenders Protection™ program, offering automated decisioning and default insurance coverage for near- and non-prime consumer loans.
How does Open Lending’s (LPRO) Lenders Protection program evaluate loan applications?
The program uses alternative data to price and structure automotive loans based on each applicant’s unique financial profile and vehicle valuation.
By David Ljunggren
OTTAWA (Reuters) – The abrupt resignation of Canada’s finance minister leaves the government adrift less a month before the inauguration of a new U.S. administration that could impose crippling sanctions on Canadian exports.
Chrystia Freeland quit on Monday after Prime Minister Justin Trudeau offered her a lesser position. She said his wish to increase spending could endanger Canada’s ability to withstand the damage done by the tariffs that U.S. President-elect Donald Trump is threatening to impose.
Freeland had headed a special cabinet committee on Canada-U.S. relations and was working closely with the 10 provinces to ensure a united response.
“As a country we have to project strength and unity, and it’s chaos right now up in Ottawa,” Ontario Premier Doug Ford said after a scheduled online conference call of provincial premiers on Monday to discuss the U.S. threat.
An unimpressed Alberta premier, Danielle Smith, one of Trudeau’s biggest domestic critics, said the provincial leaders had only learned halfway through their call that the point person on Canada-U.S. relations had quit.
“It’s chaos. I’d be looking at this wondering who the next leader is … are they going to be able to bring forward a coherent plan? Is there going to be a team that is able to do a Team Canada approach?” she said.
“It’s not the greatest time to have a vacuum,” she added, calling for a national election to help restore stability.
Unhappy legislators from the ruling Liberal Party, some of whom have been calling on Trudeau to quit for months, met on Monday in Ottawa to vent their frustration.
The Liberals are trailing badly in the polls ahead of an election that must be held by late October 2025. Trudeau has until now ruled out the idea of resigning but if pressure on him mounts significantly, the results could be unpredictable.
“Trump will be inaugurated in 34 days. Canada must have a stable government,” former Trudeau foreign policy advisor Roland Paris said in a post on X.
When Trump came to power in 2017 he vowed to tear up the trilateral free trade treaty with Canada and Mexico. Freeland, who was then foreign minister, played a large role in helping renegotiate the pact and saving Canada’s economy, which is heavily reliant on the United States.
Vincent Rigby, a former national security and intelligence adviser to Trudeau, said Freeland’s departure meant the Canadian stance with Trump was up in the air.
“This is going to be quite problematic for the prime minister from a political perspective, but it’s now also going to be problematic in terms of how the Canadian government deals with an incoming Trump presidency,” he said on the sidelines of an event in Washington.
The unelected city Campaign Finance Board just denied Mayor Adams access to more than $4 million in matching funds for his reelection fight — showing yet again the profoundly undemocratic nature of New York’s public-campaign-finance system.
The board declared Adams ineligible to receive public monies on the strength of alleged crimes and corruption, yet his trial on federal charges — and thus any factual finding of guilt — won’t even start until April.
And those charges themselves sure look like they’re motivated by politics (i.e. payback to Adams for challenging President Biden on the border crisis).
Yes, when it comes to the public fisc, even the appearance of impropriety is supposed to be a big no-no.
And Adams can appeal the decision; he still has millions in his war chest; etc. etc.
But this is at least a serious wound to his candidacy.
Again, at the hands of the CFB, which is neither directly elected nor remotely answerable to the voters of New York, nor really to anyone.
Yet it behaves as though it has the public mandate to shape and even decide election outcomes.
Consider the 2013 mayoral race: The CFB suddenly denied matching funds to then-Comptroller John Liu over alleged corruption, too — and so cleared the left lane of the Democratic primary (and near-certain victory in the general election) for a lumbering, communist-loving dimwit from Cambridge, Bill de Blasio.
That proved to be deeply consequential for all New Yorkers, eventually ushering in an era of high crime, failing schools, COVID insanity and general civic decay.
(The CFB also impacted the mayoral race in 2000, by the way, making up rules on the fly about what funds could go out the door for what after the 9/11 attacks forced a postponement of the primaries.)
Now all the leftists taking aim at Adams are jumping with joy over this decision.
The matching-funds rules themselves increase the field of candidates who’ve learned how to work the public-finance system, paying out an unthinkably lavish $8 for each (apparently) qualifying $1 in donations.
All on the taxpayers’ dime.
New York City progressives love to scream and shout that democracy is under threat.
Whatever happens in Adams’ case, the latest CFB intervention is a reminder the progressive idea of democracy often isn’t very democratic at all.
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