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Bond Markets Are Now Battlefields

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Bond Markets Are Now Battlefields

As the Greenland crisis came to a head in the days before Davos, Europeans sought tools that could be reforged as weapons against the Trump administration. On Jan. 18, Deutsche Bank’s global head of foreign exchange research, George Saravelos, warned clients in a note that “Europe owns Greenland, it also owns a lot of [U.S.] treasuries,” and that the EU might escalate the conflict with a “weaponization of capital” by reducing private and public holdings of U.S. debt instruments.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reported later that week that Deutsche Bank no longer stood behind the analyst’s report, but Saravelos was far from the only financial analyst to discuss the idea. Within days, a few European pension funds eliminated or greatly reduced their holdings of U.S. Treasurys and—perhaps as a result—U.S. language about European strength became considerably less aggressive.

As the Greenland crisis came to a head in the days before Davos, Europeans sought tools that could be reforged as weapons against the Trump administration. On Jan. 18, Deutsche Bank’s global head of foreign exchange research, George Saravelos, warned clients in a note that “Europe owns Greenland, it also owns a lot of [U.S.] treasuries,” and that the EU might escalate the conflict with a “weaponization of capital” by reducing private and public holdings of U.S. debt instruments.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reported later that week that Deutsche Bank no longer stood behind the analyst’s report, but Saravelos was far from the only financial analyst to discuss the idea. Within days, a few European pension funds eliminated or greatly reduced their holdings of U.S. Treasurys and—perhaps as a result—U.S. language about European strength became considerably less aggressive.

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It’s unclear how much of an impact Europe’s moves had on the White House backing off. But it poses a number of questions: Can Europe take advantage of weaponized interdependence to wage financial warfare against the United States? How big are the obstacles in the way, and how much impact can such moves have?

Financial flows and financial policy are instruments of coercive power. There is some evidence of financial flows putting pressure on the United States last year; in the wake of his triumphant declaration of mass tariffs in April, movement away from Treasurys reportedly persuaded President Donald Trump to partly change course.

However, this seems to have been an organic, unplanned development and a short-lived one.

Despite the precipitous fall of the dollar, and lively discussion over the past year of the United States losing its reserve currency status, the evidence points to mundane concerns about inflation and policy uncertainty leading to a slow reallocation of investment from the United States to other countries rather than any kind of coordinated response. Expert observers have asked if it is even possible for Europe to do anything further given its active trade with the United States, its smaller markets, and its interdependence. The Financial Times’s Alphaville blog summarized the idea of weaponization as “implausible.”

Yet the potential is there. History can be instructive. The state weaponization of finance feels new but, in fact, is centuries old. In the last decades of the 19th century, European governments—particularly France and Germany—aggressively used finance to advance their interests. The subservience of finance to diplomacy was considered natural; to propose otherwise could be dismissed as “financial pacifism.” At a critical moment in conflict with Russia, German Chancellor Otto von Bismarck banned the Reichsbank from accepting Russian securities as collateral. After the Franco-Prussian War an “official but tacit ban” was used to prevent French investors from putting any money into Germany.

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How might similar action look today?

The main battlefield for weaponization is markets for sovereign debt—Treasurys on the U.S. side and the mix of national and European Union-level debt instruments on the European side. If Carl von Clausewitz had been a banker instead of a general, he would have pointed to these instruments as the “center of gravity” of any coercive financial operations. Here, the United States has a distinct advantage: Treasurys are the core market of international finance—large, very deep, very liquid. They form the backbone of world financial flows, a major channel of supply and demand for local markets everywhere.

Virtually all national financial markets are tied to the U.S. Treasury market, and it greatly eases the U.S. ability to borrow. This makes it a potentially powerful target for European pressure but also, at best, a delicate one—it is very difficult to launch pressure that does not boomerang back against the EU. Much of EU ownership of Treasurys is also in private hands.

Despite all this, European governments still have the means to go on the offensive. Finance is notoriously sensitive to the arbitrage opportunities created by regulation, such that leading textbooks on the industry include extensive discussion of loophole mining. (This may also explain why lawyers can now earn more than bankers on Wall Street.) If clever bureaucrats at the European Central Bank and EU and elsewhere created the right loopholes, then European funds could move accordingly. Instead of banning use of Treasurys as collateral à la Bismarck, slight adjustments of their risk weight or tax impact under EU or national law should do the trick. There are great technical and political challenges, but it is absolutely doable.

On a defensive basis, Europe can improve its financial position by further developing common  EU debt, building on the large-scale Next Generation EU issuance during the COVID-19 pandemic. In December, EU leaders agreed to raise 90 billion euros ($106.3 billion) for Ukrainian defense, and further steps are very much under discussion. The political and technical challenges to full development of common debt options are obviously enormous, requiring the historically unprecedented establishment of a large, stable market for supranational debt.

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EU common debt tends to trade at a discount relative to comparable national debt, showing investors’ concerns. However, the potential payoffs are significant. In addition to facilitating EU-wide defense planning and creating a clear substitute for the Treasurys market, a strong common debt market could create a new and more powerful backbone to European finance, investment, and economic growth.

None of the above analysis should be viewed as prescriptive; by far the best path forward is a negotiated return to the rules-based order as opposed to a collapse into the full anarchy of unrestrained interstate competition. Unfortunately, the Trump administration seems committed to an aggressive policy that puts that order in peril. From at least the Napoleonic wars to the end of World War II, national interests regularly hijacked international markets, pushing them away from their idealized Economics 101 role as mechanisms of price discovery and efficient allocation into channels of pressure and coercion.

In an effort to bottle up these destructive spirits, the Franklin Roosevelt administration—with the assistance of economist John Maynard Keynes—used the United States’ status as the most powerful surviving state to implement the Bretton Woods system of financial and political controls. The success of the Bretton Woods project can be measured in part by how many of the tactics of the previous eras have been forgotten.

As the past month shows, these tactics and their destructive side effects are reemerging as the order collapses. Once again, bond markets are now battlefields.

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Financial planner debunks common money myths for Financial Literacy Month

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Financial planner debunks common money myths for Financial Literacy Month

HARTFORD, Conn. (WFSB) – April is National Financial Literacy Month, and a certified financial planner is debunking some common money myths.

Ken Tumolo, a certified financial planner based in East Lyme, said he finds there are three big misconceptions about finances.

The first misconception is that you can wait to save for retirement. Tumolo said the earlier you start, the earlier you can take advantage of compounding interest.

“I’m going to say magic number: as soon as you can, and what I mean by that, too, you don’t have to put your whole paycheck into a savings account. For example, my youngest son, 23 now, he started saving when he was 20, and all he would save is about $50 a week. But now that $50 over time has turned into over $1,000 in a retirement account,” Tumolo said.

“I’d probably say the big one I always run into is when to start saving,” Tumolo said.

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The second misconception is that you can make quick money on the stock market.

“You just don’t magically make a whole bunch of money all of a sudden in the market. Look at what’s going on now with the war over in Iran. People are actually losing money in some of their accounts, and so things do pass, and the market does go up and down, but it’s more of a long game,” Tumolo said.

The third misconception is that all debt is bad.

“For an example, a young person starting out, especially in college, I would say, just having like a student credit card, and a lot of times the student credit cards only have $500 or $1,000 credit limit on it, but it’s a good start for kids to learn. If I charge this, guess what? There’s a bill at the end of the month that I’m going to have to pay. See, so now they’re starting to learn how things work. And on top of it, they’re building their credit because one day they might buy a house,” Tumolo said.

Tumolo said getting a credit card is only a good thing if you’re paying it off at the end of every month.

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Rebuilding permits in Altadena have picked up, but construction lags and financial woes loom

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Rebuilding permits in Altadena have picked up, but construction lags and financial woes loom

Seven months after a wildfire destroyed thousands of homes in Altadena and surrounding neighborhoods, about 70% of homeowners who suffered severe fire damage had neither put their property up for sale nor made a move toward rebuilding.

But a few weeks after the first anniversary of the fire, the number of people in that limbo had dropped to fewer than half, as more have taken some action toward recovery, according to data released Thursday by UCLA’s Latino Policy & Politics Institute.

Though it’s the latest sign of progress in the Eaton fire’s aftermath, researchers say that recovery remains far from settled for most fire survivors, even if they’ve started on a path to rebuilding.

The data show that there has been a new wave of people starting and advancing through the permitting process, but a widening lag after that point because of, among other reasons, financing.

About 44% of homeowners have fully approved permits to rebuild, but only 30% have started construction, according to the data.

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“This is the first step in a very long and extensive process,” said Gabriella Carmona, a senior research analyst at the institute and a lead author on the report. “Recovery is still very deeply uncertain for most households.”

Just under 50% of homeowners, the analysis found, still have taken no steps toward recovery.

The report analyzed data from single-family homes that were at least 50% destroyed in the fire, including building permit applications, property sale records and fire damage assessments, as well as race and ethnicity markers for potential disparities. The report did not analyze data for renters, businesses or the Palisades fire zone.

“Rebuilding activity increased across all groups, but the largest gains occurred among Black and Latino homeowners,” the report found, comparing similar data from August with February. The most recent data found that about 56% of Black homeowners had taken some step toward recovery, up from 27% in August. Among Latino households, that metric climbed to 63% as of February, compared with 35% in August.

The new data come as the Eaton fire recovery enters its 15th month. The Times last week released an analysis that found that just over half of all residences destroyed in the Eaton fire — roughly 6,000 — have filed applications to rebuild. The review also found that it is increasingly taking longer for applicants to obtain a permit, up to about 155 days.

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Compared with the pace in Santa Rosa after the 2017 Tubbs fire, The Times’ analysis found rebuilding in both Altadena and Pacific Palisades was markedly slower.

Los Angeles County Supervisor Kathryn Barger, who represents Altadena, called the increase in applicants “meaningful forward momentum,” but she acknowledged that means residents from about 3,000 homes still haven’t started to move forward.

“The fact that only half of wildfire survivors have submitted applications makes clear that significant barriers remain, especially financial ones,” Barger said in a statement. “Many impacted residents have taken no action to rebuild because they lack the capital to move forward — an issue exacerbated by delayed insurance payouts.”

Barger continued to call for more federal support to help finance the recovery, something that Carmona said would help homeowners who remain stalled. But Carmona also said new policies are needed to support different financial avenues for families and community members to finance rebuilding, access meaningful loans and receive full insurance payouts.

It’s still unclear when and how much Southern California Edison may pay out to fire victims — the utility has not admitted it caused the fire but says its equipment was probably associated with the ignition, and faces hundreds of lawsuits — and what nontraditional or philanthropic options might be available to families.

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“Many families [are] stuck between wanting to rebuild” and not being sure “what loan makes sense or what will be available to them,” Carmona said.

Marisol Espino, who lost her home in the Eaton fire and has since become a disaster case manager with the Legacy Land Project, said these financial questions had become a game of mental gymnastics for herself and many of her former neighbors.

“A major misconception is that people can just ‘rebuild,’” Espino said. Instead, people are finding out they’re underinsured, that their insurance money is tied to their mortgage, that they don’t quality for a loan or that the loan they received has major restrictions.

“What’s happening is that people are draining their savings, they’re pulling from their 401(k)s, they’re sacrificing their retirement and their children’s future to try to get back home,” Espino said.

She understands the desire to return home, she said, but worries about the long-term stability of this next wave of homeowners trying to rebuild.

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A recent survey from the Department of Angels, a nonprofit focused on fire recovery and facilitating community organizing, found that about 40% of fire survivors had taken on debt since the fire, and the majority said their mental health had worsened.

“It is a bifurcated recovery, and the No. 1 factor is money,” said Joy Chen, the executive director of the nonprofit Every Fire Survivor’s Network. She said the group had found that the people who had been able to quickly rebuild either had prefire wealth or received full insurance payouts.

Though there are financial hurdles for many, the UCLA report pointed out some positive trends when it comes to home sales: Not only are investors making up a smaller share of homebuyers in recent months, but fewer homes are also being put up for sale. Altadena locals have been extremely concerned about investors and corporations buying up homes in their relatively affordable and diverse community, especially in historically Black neighborhoods where many homes have been passed down for multiple generations.

In August, about two-thirds of the sales of fire-damaged homes were made by investors — defined as limited liability companies, corporations or family trusts associated with real estate investment activity — but by the one-year mark, that share fell to about 59%, according to the report.

New listings in the fire zone also have slowed down, with only about 1% of severely fire-damaged homes up for sale in February, down from about 2% five months prior.

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“In general, sales have been lower” than expected, Carmona said. “We had the biggest spike in the first couple months. … There really hasn’t been a massive uptick in sales since.”

And although much remains uncertain about Altadena’s recovery, the markers of progress do provide some hope, said William Syms, the executive director of the Legacy Land Project, which was founded in the wake of the Eaton fire to provide direct assistance to residents in need. His nonprofit is one of dozens that make up the Eaton Fire Collaborative, helping to provide residents with an array of resources they need to move forward, including case management and financial support.

“The outreach that’s happening, the conversation and events and the collective power of community is working,” Sym said. “I think more people realize that it’s possible to rebuild — and while it’s expensive and costly, together we’re going to make sure that anybody who wants to get home can.”

That includes Espino, who said Habitat for Humanity recently had found a way to help finance the rebuild for her multigenerational family.

“We’re moved on to the next phase,” Espino said. “We’re trying to get all of us together, back home.”

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First-Generation Accounting and Finance Double Major Sets Sights on Future as Business Leader – Chico State Today

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First-Generation Accounting and Finance Double Major Sets Sights on Future as Business Leader – Chico State Today

Not everyone has a life plan figured out by the time they’re in college.  

Joana Camarena is a great exception. Now a senior in the business administration program, she found her calling in an early accounting class at Yuba College and hasn’t looked back since.   

“I just fell in love with it,” she said, laughing. “My professor, Martin Gutierrez, was great. He encouraged  the students a lot, and he is also a first-generation Mexican American, like me.”  

From the beginning, Camarena approached her education with intention. She planned to pursue a business degree to gain the financial literacy her parents didn’t have. Today, her long-term goals reflect that same focus: becoming a chief financial officer while also owning her own business. 

When she was exploring transfer options, a personal phone call from Chico State’s College of Business about the accounting program, student support, and internship opportunities made a lasting impression. 

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“I wanted to go to college to get a good job,” she explained. “Hearing how much Chico State supports students in getting internships really stood out to me.” 

Since arriving on campus in 2024, she wasted no time getting involved—including adding a second major in finance to her academic plate. Within her first few weeks, she had joined the Accounting Society and began exploring other student organizations. 

“All the students, staff, and faculty at the Accounting Society were super welcoming,” Camarena said. “I was also able to join Beta Alpha Psi, the accounting honor society, and became the treasurer within a semester.” 

Joana Camarena (right) talks with advisor Lauren Wassam (left) in the Educational Opportunity Program.

In class, she has impressed faculty with her dedication and initiative. Associate professor Angela Casler, who taught Camarena in her “Survey of Management” class, said her drive to learn “everything and anything about business, how to begin her career in accounting, and create career goals to achieve,” was highly noteworthy.   

“She immediately took the initiative to attend the Career Center’s career fairs and landed her first internship! She excitedly contacted me to let me know. I really felt honored that she took the time to let me know her exciting news. . . . She exemplifies the Chico Wildcat spirit, and I am proud to be a small part of her journey.”  

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Camarena says one of the reasons she has been successful in class is because of the smaller faculty-student ratio and class sizes. 

“I learn better in a smaller group, where I can ask questions and won’t be worried about shouting over a hundred other people,” she said. “It feels welcoming, and it’s easy to make friends and connections.” 

Beyond academics, Camarena has found a strong community on campus through El Centro. 

“As soon as I walked in, I saw people who looked like me, and they’re super welcoming,” she said, noting the positive difference this made to her experience. “The directors are super welcoming and offer snacks, coffee, or just a place to hang out.” 

Resources, like the Educational Opportunity Program (EOP) and the Association of Latino Professionals for America, also played a role in helping her navigate campus life and build essential connections. 

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For Camarena, these spaces are reminders that she belongs. 

As she progressed through her program, she began developing one of the most important and challenging professional skills: networking. 

Through Beta Alpha Psi, she attended recruiting events and dinners with industry professionals, learning how to introduce herself, ask questions, and build relationships. 

It wasn’t always easy. Like many students, she initially worried about saying the wrong thing or not knowing how to start conversations. But with practice and support from her peers, she grew more confident. 

In addition to a previous internship, Camarena secured a highly competitive opportunity with global accounting firm KPMG during the winter break and early spring 2026. Leaping at the opportunity, she relocated to Los Angeles for the experience and put her training to work in a fast-paced environment during audit season.  

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“It was definitely interesting being right in the middle of busy season, and I think I was kind of surprised, as well as how much work we were actually doing as interns,” she said. “I feel like Chico really prepared me for that. My professors in the College of Business always encourage us to ask questions, and I think that made a huge difference for me.”  

In addition to successfully completing the internship and gaining invaluable experience, Camarena also received a job offer at KPMG, which she has accepted and will begin in 2027.   

Now on the cusp of graduating with employment, the self-described coffee lover and former barista is continuing to enjoy exploring local coffee shops around Chico, looking for that elusive perfect lavender latte. 

She also finds creative outlets in thrifting and making floral bouquets, small but meaningful ways to unwind and express herself. 

Spending time with friends helps her stay grounded, but when she can, she heads home to Yuba City to be with family. 

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Two people walk side by side down a bright indoor hallway, smiling and talking. One wears a maroon sleeveless top and jeans, while the other wears glasses, a light-colored graphic T-shirt, a dark hoodie, and jeans, carrying a bag. Doors line the hallway, and a wall-mounted hand sanitizer dispenser is visible nearby.
Joana Camarena (left) talks with Gia Monticello (right) in the Educational Opportunity program.

While Chico State has played a major role in her success, Camarena is quick to point out that her journey is also rooted in the support she receives outside of campus. 

Her sister’s constant encouragement and her father’s unyielding support are driving forces behind her efforts.  

“It’s the small things,” she said. “They mean everything.” 

For Camarena, success is as much about chasing her dreams as it is honoring the people who helped her get there.

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