Finance
At G-7, Biden and European leaders agree to finance Ukraine using Russian assets
Key details of the financing arrangement still need to be agreed, but the leaders, meeting at a summit of the Group of Seven major advanced economies, hope it will shore up Ukraine’s finances as it fights against the two-year-old Russian invasion.
Separately, Biden and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky are expected to unveil a bilateral security agreement that seeks to establish a long-term U.S. commitment to military aid for the embattled country.
The steps by G-7 leaders at the summit in southern Italy represent the latest effort by Western allies to signal their commitment to supporting Ukraine’s defense with arms and funding, despite political divisions within the U.S. and Europe creating uncertainty about the longevity of that support.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has redoubled the military pressure on Ukraine in recent months, exploiting the sputtering flow of Western military aid to badly damage Ukraine’s energy grid with missile attacks and expanding Russia’s ground offensive in eastern Ukraine.
G-7 leaders aimed to announce the framework of an agreement to use the investment returns, mainly interest payments, generated from roughly $300 billion in Russian sovereign assets that the U.S. and Europe froze after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Most of the Russian central bank assets are held in Europe.
The plan seeks to create a new financial instrument to provide Kyiv with years’ worth of expected profits on Russian assets.
U.S. and French officials said they hope the disbursements can start flowing to Ukraine by the end of the year.
A senior Biden administration official said G-7 leaders had a “political agreement at the highest levels for this deal. And it is $50 billion…that will be committed.”
Zelensky, one of several world leaders invited to join the three-day summit at a luxury resort in the Italian region of Puglia, was due to hold a joint news conference with Biden late on Thursday.
The U.S.-Ukraine security pact seeks to commit future administrations to work with Congress to provide funding and military support for Kyiv. It makes no new promises regarding Ukraine’s bid to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. White House officials acknowledge that future U.S. presidents could withdraw from the bilateral agreement, which isn’t a treaty and doesn’t require congressional approval. It also has no dollar amount of military funding attached.
Ukraine has already signed a series of similar pacts with European and other countries, some of which have spelled out specific future support.
Former President Donald Trump, who faces Biden in November’s rematch election, has said he believes he could persuade Putin to negotiate an end to the war and has questioned why the U.S. has been sending billions of dollars worth of military and financial aid to Ukraine.
But Trump quietly consented to the passage of a short-term military-aid package for Ukraine and endorsed proposals by some Republicans to support Ukraine in the form of a loan.
White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan told reporters Thursday that the security agreement with Ukraine was a “real marker of our commitment, not just for this month, this year, but for many years to support Ukraine, both in defending against Russian aggression and in deterring future aggression so that Ukraine can be a sovereign, viable, thriving democracy.”
Sullivan told reporters traveling aboard Air Force One Wednesday that it would send Russia “a signal of our resolve. If Vladimir Putin thinks that he can outlast the coalition supporting Ukraine, he’s wrong. He just cannot wait us out.”
Ukraine desperately needs continued financial support. A separate loan package from the European Union worth 50 billion euros, equivalent to around $54 billion, is intended to help shore up Kviv’s ability to pay for basic government services, salaries and pensions through 2027.
In addition, the World Bank estimated in February that Ukraine’s reconstruction costs after the war will total close to $500 billion.
The planned $50 billion in financing for Kyiv backed by Russian assets must still overcome differences between Washington and European capitals on the technical details of how to structure the funding and how the risk on the loans should be shared.
European officials have said in recent days they envisage much of the funding would flow via existing EU programs for Ukraine. They also want the U.S. to help guarantee the loan so that if profits from the Russian assets stop flowing in, Europe won’t have to foot the bill alone.
The EU wants the loan to pay mainly for military aid for Ukraine, in line with a previous agreement it made on how to use the windfall profits, which are expected to total around $3 billion to $4 billion a year. The EU also wants to make sure their companies win some of the contracts for the civilian or military work that Ukraine spends the money on.
Washington had been pushing for a loan to be made by a special purpose vehicle managed by the World Bank, with the U.S. and its G-7 partners supplying the money upfront. The U.S. is concerned that the flow of profits from frozen Russian assets could be halted in Europe if Hungary, whose leader Viktor Orban has long had close relations with Moscow, vetoes the continued EU sanctioning of Russian assets. Authorization for the asset freeze and other EU sanctions must be renewed every six months.
European officials have said resolving the technical details could take many weeks. Sullivan said G-7 leaders planned to set a clear timetable for experts to agree on details.
Noemie Bisserbe contributed to this article.
Write to Ken Thomas at ken.thomas@wsj.com and Laurence Norman at laurence.norman@wsj.com
Finance
Will SCOTUS campaign finance ruling yield big changes for parties? — Harvard Gazette
Fifty years ago, the U.S. Supreme Court struck down campaign spending limits in the landmark decision Buckley v. Valeo, finding the curbs violated First Amendment free-speech protections. Since then, several rulings, including the 2010 Citizens United case, which ended restrictions on election donations by corporations, nonprofits, and labor unions, have further loosened campaign finance regulations.
In this interview, which has been edited and condensed for length and clarity, Nicholas Stephanopoulos, Kirkland & Ellis Professor of Law at Harvard Law School, spoke about the recent ruling by the Supreme Court that lifted restrictions on how much money political parties can spend in coordination with candidates, its downside and potential upside, and its possible impact on the midterm elections.
Can you explain what the recent campaign finance ruling means? How is it going to affect political parties?
The recent decision is a not a huge blockbuster like some other campaign finance cases we’ve seen in recent years. That’s because the decision only involves limits on political parties’ coordinated expenditures with candidates, and that pool of money, both today and potentially in the future, is not enormous.
Before this ruling, parties could spend whatever they want, even before they could coordinate a lot of expenditures with candidates. Now they can just coordinate somewhat more. So, the stakes here were sort of moderate.
The two things the decision means above all are these: On the negative side, it’ll be easier now for a corrupt donor [to skirt individual donation limits] to funnel more money to a candidate using a party as the conduit or the vehicle for that contribution. On the positive side, parties are permanent, important political institutions, and now somewhat more money might flow to parties instead of super PACs and dark money groups and other more problematic organizations.
Nicholas Stephanopoulos.
Harvard Law School
Justice Elena Kagan, who dissented from this ruling, said this decision would increase the likelihood of “political corruption.” Do you agree?
First of all, notice that Kagan isn’t challenging the fundamentals of campaign finance law. She’s not claiming that money isn’t speech. She’s not claiming that all campaign finance regulations should be upheld. She’s fully arguing within the current court’s doctrinal framework. She thinks that the law at issue is necessary to prevent corruption.
Kagan points out that, with a little bit of bookkeeping, it should be fairly straightforward now for a donor to give effectively half a million dollars to a candidate channeled through a party, as opposed to the $7,000 the donor is allowed to give directly to the candidate.
With much bigger sums that can now be given through a party to a candidate, there’s the possibility of more quid pro quo corruption. A candidate isn’t likely to do very much in return for $7,000 but a candidate may do quite a bit more in return for $500,000. So I think we’ll see somewhat more corruption in politics as a result of today’s decision.
What’s the idea behind “money is speech,” which has been at the core of most campaign finance decisions since the 1970s?
The premise that money is speech, or at least it enables political speech, means that it can be covered by the First Amendment. That premise underlies all campaign finance doctrine since the 1970s.
It’s a controversial doctrine. Individual justices over the years have pointed out that money is not speech, and merely enabling speech is not the same thing as being speech itself. All campaign finance decisions since the 1970s have assumed that regulations of political funding involved the First Amendment because there’s a close enough connection to political speech, and even the progressive justices in the 1990s and 2000s still accepted that the First Amendment was involved here.
The implication of fully endorsing the position that money isn’t speech is that all of these cases would quickly fall by the wayside. If money isn’t speech and there’s no First Amendment issue presented here, then Congress can regulate campaign finance however Congress wants to, without any possible First Amendment problem. But that view has never been the view of the majority of the court.
Can you compare the impact of this recent ruling to that of the 2010 Citizens United case?
Citizens United involved independent spending by corporations, by unions, and the court said that there’s no valid justification for limiting any independent campaign spending, whether it’s by candidates, rich individuals, parties, corporations, or unions.
The current case involves the somewhat less-explosive issue of coordinated expenditures. Citizens United was a sweeping decision, striking down a very important federal law and opening the door to huge new sums to be spent in politics. This decision isn’t like that. It doesn’t involve independent spending. It only involves one actor, political parties, not the whole range of actors. The stakes are a lot lower than the Citizens United case.
With this ruling, the Supreme Court overruled a 2001 decision, which upheld the same limits on coordinate expenditures with candidates. How do you explain that?
The 2001 case was decided by the court when it was at its most pro-regulatory in the campaign finance context. What changed since 2001 is the composition of the court.
The critical change was when Sandra Day O’Connor retired in 2006, and Sam Alito replaced her. Alito has always been a skeptic of campaign finance regulations, whereas O’Connor, especially toward the end of her time on the court, was willing to uphold a lot of campaign finance regulations.
Almost everything that’s followed since then, Citizens United in 2010, McCutcheon in 2014, and other decisions striking down campaign finance laws, happened not because the world of politics changed or because there was some big insight on the court. It happened because the court became more conservative and what had been a five-four pro-regulation majority became a five-four anti-regulation majority.
It’s no surprise that the current court, which is now six-three against campaign finance regulation, doesn’t like a decision from this earlier period.
Will this ruling impact the midterm elections?
In the near term, this will somewhat benefit the Republican Party committees that have more funds at their disposal because they have just happened to raise a lot more money recently than the Democratic Party entities.
However, even before this decision, all of those Republican entities could still spend their money however they wanted to, so it’s not that big of a change for them. I think Democrats will direct more of their donors to give some more money to party organizations. There might be a short-term benefit for Republicans, but I don’t think this will cause a great imbalance in the system going forward.
Overall, I’m not incredibly alarmed by this ruling. We’re still going to have in place various other laws and precautions that will stop some corruption.
It’s bad for our system to allow super PACs and dark-money groups to become the leading actors in campaign finance. I’d rather have the money in parties’ hands than in super PACs or dark-money groups’ hands. I don’t think the doors are really open for that much additional corruption here. I think there’s a non-trivial silver lining in strengthening political parties, which are valuable institutions.
Finance
Goldman Sachs Sets $1 Trillion M&A Record
Breaking a six-month record, the investment banking giant capitalizes on a surging wave of global megadeals.
Goldman Sachs said it had advised on more than $1 trillion of announced global mergers and acquisitions so far this year, the fastest any investment bank has reached that milestone in a six-month period, citing data from capital markets data provider Dealogic.
The bank attributed the milestone to a string of marquee mandates, including serving as co-financial adviser to Dominion Energy on its roughly $67 billion sale to rival utility NextEra Energy, announced last month, along with other major transactions.
Rise of the Megadeal
Goldman reported that its investment banking fees rose 48%, to $2.8 billion in the first quarter. It’s a reflection of the “K-shaped” M&A market, where megadeals are the dominant force, but deal volumes are declining, and mid-market activity is subdued.
Data compiled by PwC revealed that the global M&A market is on track to reach $4 trillion in 2026, a 13% annual increase, with major sales estimated to account for 48% of deal value worldwide, a significant expansion from two years ago.
“Goldman has been the global leader in M&A advisory fees for more than 90 consecutive quarters. The fact that it’s reaping benefits from a moment of megadeal activity simply proves the strength of its franchise,” said Mark Narron, senior director at Fitch Ratings. “However, advisory revenues are generally a small share of total revenues. In 2021, which was Goldman’s record year for advisory, advisory revenues contributed only 10% of total revenues.”
Fitch says it’s difficult to forecast whether Goldman’s advisory revenues will continue to climb, given the cyclical nature of advisory fees and uneven regional M&A trends — with most deal activity still concentrated in the U.S.
Fitch expects M&A activity to be sensitive to market conditions, economic growth, geopolitical events, and interest rates. Global growth is estimated to decelerate to 2.8% this year, according to the latest OECD economic outlook report. Inflationary pressures are rising in advanced and emerging economies due to energy shocks from the Iran conflict. Prices in the G20 economies are expected to climb to 4% in 2026. In a “prolonged disruption” scenario, inflation could rise further, which may prompt hawkish interest rate responses from central banks.
Peter Taberner is a contributing writer based in the U.K.
Finance
Rodriguez fires campaign manager over finance filing issues – Civic Media
MADISON, Wis. (Civic Media) – Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez, a Democratic candidate for governor, fired her campaign manager Sunday after discovering problems with campaign finance filings, her campaign said.
The campaign said the person was terminated effective immediately following an internal review that found “serious mismanagement and inaccuracies” in reports they prepared. Staff identified the issues late last week and alerted Rodriguez, who then moved to secure campaign accounts and remove the staffer.
The campaign said it plans to contact the Wisconsin Ethics Commission on Monday to correct the filings ahead of a key reporting deadline Wednesday.
Full statement below.
“The Sara Rodriguez for Wisconsin campaign has terminated its campaign manager, effective today, after discovering serious mismanagement and inaccuracies in campaign finance filings she prepared. An initial review found that the manager filed inaccurate and incomplete campaign finance reports. The campaign will be in contact with the Wisconsin Ethics Commission first thing Monday morning to ensure the inaccuracies are corrected. The moment Sara learned of these inaccuracies, she acted swiftly and decisively removed her. The campaign will continue to build support to win in August and beat Tom Tiffany in November.”
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