Finance
Assess your financial risk before new policies affect the economy
I’ve been thinking about financial risk lately.
Should I change my asset allocation in my retirement portfolio, considering Donald Trump’s successful bid for the White House? Stock market valuations have risen smartly in recent years, which real income growth, productivity improvements, technological innovation, low unemployment rates and healthy corporate profits have largely powered. Yet with the election of Trump, voters have approved a massive economic experiment.
The Trump administration comes into power with many policy goals, but four economic initiatives stand out: Enacting significant tax cuts; imposing broad-based and significant tariffs; sweeping raids, mass deportations and tighter immigration controls; and slashing federal government regulations. The extent that these plans turn into reality and how each policy will interact with the others is uncertain. The risks are obvious. The outcome isn’t.
Enter risk management, a critical concept in finance. Professionals often associate risk with volatility. The tight link makes sense, since owning assets with high volatility hikes the odds of losses if there is a pressing need to sell the asset to raise money.
However, for the typical individual and household, risk means the odds money decisions made today don’t pan out. Managing risk means lowering the negative financial impact on your desired standard of living from decisions gone wrong and when circumstances take an untoward turn.
“Anything that makes reaching or maintaining that more likely reduces your risk, and anything that makes this less likely increases your risk,” writes Bob French, the investment expert at Retirement Researcher. “Everything else is just details.”
The key risk management concept is a margin of safety, a bedrock personal finance idea broader than investment portfolios. It can include having an emergency savings fund, owning life insurance to protect your family and investing in your network of friends and colleagues to hedge against the risk of losing your job. The right mix depends on the particulars of your situation.
In my case, after studying my portfolio, running household money numbers and reviewing lifestyle goals, I’m comfortable with the asset allocation in my retirement portfolio. There is too much noise in the markets for comfort, and market timing is always tricky. The prudent approach with my individual situation is to stay the course.
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Finance
This Is the Best Thing to Do With Your 2026 Military Pay Raise
Editor’s note: This is the fourth installment of New Year, New You, a weeklong look at your financial health headed into 2026.
The military’s regularly occurring pay raises provide an opportunity that many civilians only dream of. Not only do the annual percentage increases troops receive each January provide frequent chances to rebalance financial priorities — savings vs. current standard of living — so do time-in-service increases for every two years of military service, not to mention promotions.
Two experts in military pay and personal finance — a retired admiral and a retired general, each at the head of their respective military mutual aid associations — advised taking a similarly predictable approach to managing each new raise:
Cut it in half.
In one variation of the strategy, a service member simply adds to their savings: whatever it is they prioritize. In the other, consistent increases in retirement contributions soon add up to a desirable threshold.
Rainy Day Fund
The active military’s 3.8% pay raise in 2026 came in a percentage point higher than retirees and disabled veterans received, meaning troops “should be able to afford the market basket of goods that the average American is afforded,” said Michael Meese, a retired Army brigadier general and president of Armed Forces Mutual.
While the veterans’ lower rate relies exclusively on the rate of inflation, Congress has the option to offer more; and in doing so is making up for recent years when the pay raise didn’t keep up with unusually high inflation, Meese said.
“So this is helping us catch up a little bit.”
He also speculated that the government shutdown “upset a lot of people” and that widespread support of the 3.8% raise across party lines and in both houses of Congress showed “that it has confidence in the military and wants to take care of the military and restore government credibility with service men and women,” Meese said.
His suggestion for managing pay raises:
“If you’ve been living already without the pay raise and now you see this pay raise, if you can,” Meese advised, “I always said … you should save half and spend half,” Meese said. “That way, you don’t instantly increase your spending habits just because you see more money at the end of the month.”
A service member who makes only $1,000 every two weeks, for example, gets another $38 every two weeks starting this month. Put $19 into savings, and you can put the other $19 toward “beer and pizza or whatever you’re going to do,” Meese said.
“That way you’re putting money away for a rainy day,” he said — to help prepare for a vacation, for example, “so you’re not putting those on a credit card.” If you set aside only $25 more per pay period, “at the end of the year, you’ve got an extra $300 in there, and that may be great for Christmas vacation or Christmas presents or something like that.”
Retirement Strategy
Brian Luther, retired rear admiral and the president and chief executive officer of Navy Mutual, recognizes that “personal finance is personal” — in other words, “every situation is different.” Nevertheless, he insists that “everyone should have a plan” that includes:
- What your cash flow is
- Where your money is going
- Where you need to go in the future
But even if you don’t know a lot of those details, Luther said, the most important thing:
Luther also advised an approach based on cutting the 3.8% pay raise in half, keeping half for expenses and putting the other half into the Thrift Savings Plan. Then “that pay will work for you until you need it in retirement,” Luther said. With every subsequent increase, put half into the TSP until you’re setting aside a full 15% of your pay.
For a relatively young service member, “Once you hit 15%, and [with] the 5% match from the government, that’s enough for your future,” Luther said.
Previously in this series:
Part 1: 2026 Guide to Pay and Allowances for Military Service Members, Veterans and Retirees
Part 2: Understanding All the Deductions on Your 2026 Military Leave and Earnings Statements
Part 3: Should You Let the Military Set Aside Allotments from Your Pay?
Get the Latest Financial Tips
Whether you’re trying to balance your budget, build up your credit, select a good life insurance program or are gearing up for a home purchase, Military.com has you covered. Subscribe to Military.com and get the latest military benefit updates and tips delivered straight to your inbox.
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