Culture
What we learned about the CFP in Week 11: Mizzou’s ‘Playoff hunt’? One-bid ACC? Assume nothing
The 12-team College Football Playoff has made it challenging to pinpoint just how big the fall’s biggest games are. For decades, the result of a regular-season game could feel definitive. Even if it wasn’t quite so, it could be pretty darn close.
That’s not the case anymore.
After the number of unbeaten teams shrunk to four in Week 11, we’ve learned that using the phrase “If they win out” is fraught with peril and the SEC seems to be headed for a massive logjam.
Magnificent 7
After Missouri beat Oklahoma 30-23 in a bonkers game that included five touchdowns in the fourth quarter — four in the final 3:18 — Tigers coach Eli Drinkwitz proclaimed his team still alive in the Playoff race.
Coach Drinkwitz says tonight’s win was big because it keeps Mizzou in the playoff hunt pic.twitter.com/AG0nL3bW6K
— Unnecessary Roughness (@UnnecRoughness) November 10, 2024
“That’s right. I said it. Playoff hunt,” Drinkwitz said.
Really?
Well, put it this way: Mizzou is now one of seven SEC teams that could finish the regular season 10-2, along with — in alphabetical order — Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Texas and Texas A&M. Those six all landed in the CFP selection committee’s top 16 last week.
Only two SEC games are remaining matching any of those seven teams. Next week, Georgia tries to bounce back from its second loss of the season against Tennessee in Athens. On Thanksgiving weekend, Texas goes to Texas A&M.
Georgia had a chance to vote Ole Miss off the island, but Rebels coach Lane Kiffin finally broke through with a top-five victory to remain very much alive. Now the Bulldogs, preseason No. 1 and the favorites to win the national championship, are in danger of missing out on a 12-team bracket.
Unthinkable.
The Crimson Tide rolled past LSU 42-13 to unofficially, but undeniably, eliminate the Tigers from Playoff contention. Tennessee and the winner of Texas-Texas A&M control their paths to the SEC title game, which is better than the alternative, but control feels like an illusion this season.
As for Mizzou and Drinkwitz, nobody should apologize for going 7-2, especially a program that does not regularly churn out double-digit-victory seasons. The reality is Missouri, which was ranked 25th by the selection committee last week, clearly sits seventh in the SEC’s Playoff pecking order.
The Athletic’s projections model gives Missouri a 0.3 percent chance of making the Playoff. So, you’re saying there’s a chance?
SEC CFP and title odds
| Team | CFP bid | SEC title | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
|
78% |
42% |
8-1 |
|
|
75% |
9% |
7-2 |
|
|
68% |
10% |
7-2 |
|
|
62% |
10% |
8-2 |
|
|
39% |
13 |
8-1 |
|
|
12% |
12 |
7-2 |
|
|
4% |
4 |
6-3 |
|
|
0.3% |
0.3% |
7-2 |
Hurricane warning
No. 4 Miami had been tempting fate and hoping for quarterback Cam Ward to pull it out of precarious situations for most of the last month and a half. Four times in the previous five games, the Hurricanes fell behind only to have Ward and their potent offense bail them out and keep them unbeaten.
Ward ran out of second-half magic against Georgia Tech, and now the Canes’ path to the Playoff has narrowed. SMU, 13th in the committee’s initial rankings, had a productive off week. The Mustangs are now alone atop the ACC standings.
Miami’s loss was the 10th this season by an AP top-10 team against an unranked team. That means the rankings at the time of the games, which means Georgia Tech has two of those victories after starting the season by beating preseason No. 10 Florida State in Ireland. Yes, sometimes early-season upsets are not what they appear to be.
Still, that list includes Kentucky over Ole Mis, Arkansas over Tennessee and, of course, Northern Illinois over Notre Dame. It almost added Utah over No. 9 BYU later Saturday night.
It has been a fun season.
Thanks to Pitt’s loss to Virginia, Miami is still in control of its ACC championship hopes heading into an off week. The Canes conclude the season with games against Syracuse and Boston College — both very winnable. Then again, so was Georgia Tech.
“We have a bye week with everything in front of us to play for,” Miami coach Mario Cristobal said.
The Yellow Jackets ran for 271 yards and held the ball for nearly 35 minutes. Two failed fourth-down conversions by Miami in Georgia Tech territory were essentially the difference in a 28-23 loss.
The bigger issue for Miami is that the prospect of getting into the Playoff just by reaching the ACC Championship Game just went down. Look at all those SEC teams potentially sitting there with two losses. Then take a peek at the Big Ten, where the odds continue to rise that its four CFP contenders (Oregon, Ohio State, Indiana, Penn State) all will win at least 10 regular-season games.
If the Hurricanes reach the ACC title game, they are likely to do so having beaten only one ranked team (Louisville).
That measurement can be a little deceiving and random. Is there that much difference between team No. 25 and team No. 30? Not really.
Still, the ACC moved closer to being a one-bid league Saturday.
ACC CFP and title odds
| Team | CFP bid | ACC title | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
|
70% |
36% |
9-1 |
|
|
42% |
26% |
8-1 |
|
|
38% |
36% |
7-2 |
|
|
1% |
2% |
6-3 |
GO DEEPER
College Football Playoff 2024 projections: Indiana up to 92 percent chance to make field
2024 BYU = 2022 TCU
BYU’s unbeaten season appeared to be over when quarterback Jake Retzlaff was sacked near his goal line on a fourth down with less than two minutes left in the fourth quarter. The Cougars have dodged a few losses on the way 9-0, but no escape was greater than Saturday night’s against rival Utah.
A holding penalty on the Utes wiped out what likely would have been a decisive sack, and the Cougars took their second chance and drove to set up a game-winning field goal in the waning seconds. The 11-point halftime deficit was the largest BYU has overcome to win since 2002 against Utah State.
“We won this game. Someone else stole it from us,” Utah athletic director Mark Harlan told reporters. “This was not fair to our team. I’m disgusted by the professionalism of the officiating crew tonight.”
Utah Athletic Director Mark Harlan Post Game pic.twitter.com/eKjy4PpedU
— Elijah Grayson Murray (@elijahgmurray) November 10, 2024
OK, then.
The Cougars remain alone in first in the Big 12, a mere game ahead of Colorado, which had its own come-from-behind victory on Saturday night.
Indiana already has locked up this season’s best turnaround, the perennial Big Ten doormat now in contention for a conference title after going 3-9 last season. BYU is not quite that, but the Cougars went 5-7 in their first season in the Big 12 last year and were picked to finish near the bottom of the conference again.
Sound familiar?
TCU took a similar path to the Playoff in 2022. These Cougars are no Hypnotoads, but they are most definitely a vibes-based operation.
Big 12 spoiler
Kansas has had one of the most disappointing years in the country, starting the season ranked and losing its first five FBS games, none by more than 11 points.
The Jayhawks now have won two of three, with only a two-point loss to Kansas State preventing a three-game winning streak. Quarterback Jalon Daniels and company pretty much eliminated Iowa State from the CFP race with a 45-36 victory Saturday.
Kansas can continue to play spoiler for the next two weeks. The Jayhawks visit BYU next week and host Colorado after that.
Keeping BYU out of the Big 12 Championship Game at this point is going to take at least two losses by the Cougars. Avoiding that is not going to be as easy as it might have looked a few weeks ago.
BYU goes to Arizona State in two weeks. As good as the turnaround in Provo has been, Sun Devils coach Kenny Dillingham’s has been even better in Tempe. Arizona State (7-2, 4-2) is also still in contention for a spot in the Big 12 title game.
And BYU closes its regular season at home against Houston, which has won three of its last four.
Big 12 CFP and title odds
| Team | CFP bid | Big 12 title | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
|
59% |
32% |
9-0 |
|
|
41% |
42% |
7-2 |
|
|
14% |
11% |
7-2 |
|
|
8% |
7% |
7-2 |
|
|
3% |
3% |
7-2 |
Tested Hoosiers
It took 10 games, but finally somebody made Indiana work deep into the fourth quarter.
Indiana is 10-0 for the first time after beating defending national champion Michigan 20-15 in what was by far the Hoosiers’ worst offensive game of the season.
“I’m glad we won,” coach Curt Cignetti said. “I don’t like the way we played.”
10 games, 10 wins. pic.twitter.com/OU9Bi4I8Xi
— Indiana Football (@IndianaFootball) November 10, 2024
Considering Indiana improved to 11-62 all-time against Michigan, I’m pretty confident that sentence never had been uttered by a Hoosiers coach after beating the Wolverines.
Indiana gets a week off before playing at Ohio State. It would seem that the Hoosiers have built up enough credit to sustain a loss to the Buckeyes and get into the Playoff, but the strength of schedule metric is still hanging around Indiana like an anchor. The Wolverines are now 5-5.
Big Ten CFP and title odds
| Team | CFP bid | B1G title | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
|
99% |
63% |
10-0 |
|
|
99% |
20% |
8-1 |
|
|
95% |
8% |
8-1 |
|
|
92% |
9% |
10-0 |
(Photo: Ed Zurga / Getty Images)
A famous poet once observed that it is difficult to get the news from poems. The weather is a different story. April showers, summer sunshine and — maybe especially — the chill of winter provide an endless supply of moods and metaphors. Poets like to practice a double meteorology, looking out at the water and up at the sky for evidence of interior conditions of feeling.
The inner and outer forecasts don’t always match up. This short poem by Louise Glück starts out cold and stays that way for most of its 11 lines.
And then it bursts into flame.
“Early December in Croton-on-Hudson” comes from Glück’s debut collection, “Firstborn,” which was published in 1968. She wrote the poems in it between the ages of 18 and 23, but they bear many of the hallmarks of her mature style, including an approach to personal matters — sex, love, illness, family life — that is at once uncompromising and elusive. She doesn’t flinch. She also doesn’t explain.
Here, for example, Glück assembles fragments of experience that imply — but also obscure — a larger narrative. It’s almost as if a short story, or even a novel, had been smashed like a glass Christmas ornament, leaving the reader to infer the sphere from the shards.
We know there was a couple with a flat tire, and that a year later at least one of them still has feelings for the other. It’s hard not to wonder if they’re still together, or where they were going with those Christmas presents.
To some extent, those questions can be addressed with the help of biographical clues. The version of “Early December in Croton-on-Hudson” that appeared in The Atlantic in 1967 was dedicated to Charles Hertz, a Columbia University graduate student who was Glück’s first husband. They divorced a few years later. Glück, who died in 2023, was never shy about putting her life into her work.
But the poem we are reading now is not just the record of a passion that has long since cooled. More than 50 years after “Firstborn,” on the occasion of receiving the Nobel Prize for literature, Glück celebrated the “intimate, seductive, often furtive or clandestine” relations between poets and their readers. Recalling her childhood discovery of William Blake and Emily Dickinson, she declared her lifelong ardor for “poems to which the listener or reader makes an essential contribution, as recipient of a confidence or an outcry, sometimes as co-conspirator.”
That’s the kind of poem she wrote.
“Confidence” can have two meanings, both of which apply to “Early December in Croton-on-Hudson.” Reading it, you are privy to a secret, something meant for your ears only. You are also in the presence of an assertive, self-possessed voice.
Where there is power, there’s also risk. To give voice to desire — to whisper or cry “I want you” — is to issue a challenge and admit vulnerability. It’s a declaration of conquest and a promise of surrender.
What happens next? That’s up to you.
Cold weather can serve as a plot point or emphasize the mood of a scene, and this week’s literary geography quiz highlights the locations of recent novels that work winter conditions right into the story. Even if you aren’t familiar with the book, the questions offer an additional hint about the setting. To play, just make your selection in the multiple-choice list and the correct answer will be revealed. At the end of the quiz, you’ll find links to the books if you’d like to do further reading.
When a writer is praised for having a sense of place, it usually means one specific place — a postage stamp of familiar ground rendered in loving, knowing detail. But Kiran Desai, in her latest novel, “The Loneliness of Sonia and Sunny,” has a sense of places.
This 670-page book, about the star-crossed lovers of the title and several dozen of their friends, relatives, exes and servants (there’s a chart in the front to help you keep track), does anything but stay put. If “The Loneliness of Sonia and Sunny” were an old-fashioned steamer trunk, it would be papered with shipping labels: from Allahabad (now known as Prayagraj), Goa and Delhi; from Queens, Kansas and Vermont; from Mexico City and, perhaps most delightfully, from Venice.
There, in Marco Polo’s hometown, the titular travelers alight for two chapters, enduring one of several crises in their passionate, complicated, on-again, off-again relationship. One of Venice’s nicknames is La Serenissima — “the most serene” — but in Desai’s hands it’s the opposite: a gloriously hectic backdrop for Sonia and Sunny’s romantic confusion.
Their first impressions fill a nearly page-long paragraph. Here’s how it begins.
Sonia is a (struggling) fiction writer. Sunny is a (struggling) journalist. It’s notable that, of the two of them, it is she who is better able to perceive the immediate reality of things, while he tends to read facts through screens of theory and ideology, finding sociological meaning in everyday occurrences. He isn’t exactly wrong, and Desai is hardly oblivious to the larger narratives that shape the fates of Sunny, Sonia and their families — including the economic and political changes affecting young Indians of their generation.
But “The Loneliness of Sonia and Sunny” is about more than that. It’s a defense of the very idea of more, and thus a rebuke to the austerity that defines so much recent literary fiction. Many of Desai’s peers favor careful, restricted third-person narration, or else a measured, low-affect “I.” The bookstores are full of skinny novels about the emotional and psychological thinness of contemporary life. This book is an antidote: thick, sloppy, fleshy, all over the place.
It also takes exception to the postmodern dogma that we only know reality through representations of it, through pre-existing concepts of the kind to which intellectuals like Sunny are attached. The point of fiction is to assert that the world is true, and to remind us that it is vast, strange and astonishing.
See the full list of the 10 Best Books of 2025 here.
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