Picking Penn State to lose to Ohio State does not deserve a victory lap. Losing big games is what the Nittany Lions do.

Like James Franklin, I deserved to get booed off the field last week after posting an embarrassing 4-5 record picking up straight-up winners. My 59-31 overall record for the season feels especially hollow when I’ve missed on four consecutive upset alerts to fall to 3-6 when sounding the alarm.

We’ll get to my hits and misses below, but first, here are this week’s picks. There are only two Top 25 matchups, but plenty of other intriguing games as conference races narrow.

Most passing yards

The one prediction I nailed last week was calling for Ole Miss’ Jaxson Dart to lead all FBS passers in yards. This week, the numbers are screaming to go with Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders, one of eight quarterbacks averaging more than 300 passing yards a game.

Travis Hunter went on Shedeur Sanders Podcast 🔥

Shedeur : “If I’m playing like you I’m talking crazy”

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Travis : “I just hate when people say I’m not top 5 at Receiver top 5 at DB”

🎥 : @ShedeurSanders @TravisHunterJr pic.twitter.com/08WM84u5Pq

— We Coming 🦬 (@SkoBuffsGoBuffs) November 5, 2024

The Buffaloes are 3.5-point favorites at Texas Tech, which ranks 133rd in passing defense but is coming off its biggest win of the season at Iowa State. Joey McGuire’s team is also 7-2 in November games under his watch. Sanders will throw for 450-plus yards, including 150 to Heisman hopeful Travis Hunter. But Texas Tech wins a high-scoring game on a late interception.

Most rushing yards

Tennessee’s Dylan Sampson is one of only eight running backs averaging more than 120 yards rushing per game. His 19 rushing touchdowns are tied with Iowa’s Kaleb Johnson and Army’s Bryson Daily for second behind Boise State star Ashton Jeanty’s 20.

This week, I’m riding with Sampson to lead all rushers in yards because he’s facing a Mississippi State defense that’s ranked 124th against the run. The seventh-ranked Volunteers are 23.5-point favorites at home and have won their last three games by six, seven and 10 points in comeback fashion. This week, it will be a little easier. Sampson runs for a season-high 200-plus yards and three touchdowns and Tennessee wins by three scores.

Most receiving yards

FIU’s Eric Rivers led all receivers last week with 295 yards and three touchdowns in a win over New Mexico State. This week, I’m going with another receiver from the same area code to rack up the most yards: Miami’s Xavier Restrepo, who became the Hurricanes’ all-time leading receiver in last week’s come-from-behind win over Duke.

Fourth-ranked Miami is an 11.5-point favorite at Georgia Tech, which handed the Canes a devastating loss last season despite a career-high 12 catches from Restrepo. Restrepo gets revenge, connecting with Cam Ward 12 times for 200-plus yards in a 10-point Miami win in Atlanta.

Five big games

No. 3 Georgia (-2.5) at No. 16 Ole Miss

The Bulldogs have won 11 of the last 12 meetings with the Rebels, including last year’s 52-17 thrashing in Athens. Yet, there are reasons why the spread entering this one is less than a field goal: Carson Beck’s 11 interceptions and Ole Miss’ ability to post a gaudy stat line.

Dart’s 515 passing yards and six TDs last week against Arkansas, with a breakout performance from Jordan Watkins, provide more reason for me to stick with my midseason prediction. That is Georgia finishes 10-2, misses the SEC title game and still makes noise in the College Football Playoff. Give me Ole Miss on a late TD pass from Dart.

No. 11 Alabama (-3) at No. 15 LSU

The Crimson Tide are 29-10-2 all-time at Tiger Stadium and 3-1 against Brian Kelly at LSU. Kelly’s one win came the last time the Tide visited Baton Rouge. Both teams are coming off idle weeks, but with different results — Alabama crushed Missouri while LSU folded late at Texas A&M.

So, I’m not going against my midseason script. Alabama will beat LSU to stay on track to make the Playoff and Jalen Milroe will once again carve up the Tigers with his feet as he did a year ago. This time, he’ll run for 150 yards and two scores in a 10-point win.

Jalen Milroe highlights vs LSU 🔥pic.twitter.com/w0pPrlbAvj https://t.co/f4tk6CXW4h

— 𝙏𝙝𝙤𝙢𝙖𝙨 🎃 (@ThomasWrrld) July 16, 2024

No. 9 BYU (-5) at Utah

Few envisioned BYU being the top-10 team contending for a conference championship and Playoff berth when these two rivals met. But the Cougars very much deserve credit for where they are with impressive wins against two ranked teams — SMU and Kansas State.

The hard part is trying to determine if the Utes can muster any offense after they’ve averaged only 12.5 points over their recent four-game losing streak. The guess here is they can’t. Utah will be held to under 300 yards for the third time this season and BYU wins by a touchdown.

No. 17 Iowa State (-3) at Kansas

The Big 12 feels a bit disrespected after seeing only one team in the top 16 of the CFP rankings. But Iowa State and Kansas State have no one to blame but themselves following head-scratching losses last weekend.

At the start of the season, Kansas was everyone’s dark horse to win the league, and now Lance Leipold’s team needs to win its last four games to qualify for a bowl. Jalon Daniels has not been good enough to this point and he’s going to struggle against a solid Cyclones defense. Iowa State bounces back and keeps its CFP hopes alive with a seven-point win at Arrowhead Stadium.

No. 25 Army (-5.5) at North Texas

The Black Knights are one of five remaining FBS unbeatens and are outscoring opponents by 26.6 points a game. The problem is six of those seven FBS wins are against teams with losing records. North Texas is by far Army’s toughest opponent yet. The Mean Green have the highest-scoring offense in the American Athletic Conference and lost shootouts at Memphis and Tulane in their previous two games.

Army coach Jeff Monken said Daily, his starting quarterback, could be back after missing the win over Air Force last week. I’m not sure it matters here. North Texas quarterback Chandler Morris puts up huge numbers every week and he will do so again (350-plus passing yards, three TDs) in an upset win.

Upset alert

Michigan at No. 8 Indiana (-14.5)

Indiana’s strength of schedule (82nd according to The Athletic’s Austin Mock) is why the undefeated Hoosiers were No. 8 in the first installment of the CFP rankings. They have two wins over P4 teams with winning records: Washington (5-4) and Nebraska (5-4).

You’d have to be a little crazy at this point to think Curt Cignetti’s team isn’t for real considering it is beating FBS opponents by 27.8 points a game. Picking against Indiana here is probably dumb considering Michigan’s offense stinks. But I said at midseason the Hoosiers wouldn’t make the Playoff, and I can’t chicken out now. Colston Loveland is the hero.

Week 10 report card

As mentioned before, my big victory last week was predicting Dart would lead all QBs in passing yards.

My pick to lead all rushers, Daily, was a late scratch from Army’s lineup against Air Force. The Black Knights still won, 20-3, as I said they would. They just didn’t cover the 22.5-point spread.

Outside of picking Ohio State to win, my only other victory was picking Oregon to handle its business and cover a 14.5-spread over Michigan with Dillon Gabriel throwing for more than 250 yards and three touchdowns. Gabriel threw for 294 yards and one touchdown, and the Ducks beat Michigan 38-17.

And now to a string of really bad predictions — and some accountability.

I picked Arizona’s Tetairoa McMillan to lead all receivers in yardage in a Wildcats’ upset over UCF. McMillan finished with six catches for 84 yards and a touchdown, and UCF obliterated Arizona 56-12.

I said Iowa State would score late on a Rocco Becht touchdown to remain unbeaten against Texas Tech. Instead, Tahj Brooks scored with 20 seconds left to rob Becht of his heroics, and the Cyclones lost 23-22.

I had Clemson covering a 10.5-point spread against Louisville with Cade Klubnik (250-plus passing yards, two TDs) and Phil Mafah (100-plus rushing yards, two TDs) doing work. Klubnik threw for 228 yards and a score and Mafah ran for 171 yards and two scores. But Louisville beat Clemson by 12.

I said Marcel Reed’s rushing ability would be the difference in a big road win for Texas A&M at South Carolina. The Gamecocks outscored Texas A&M 24-0 in the second half and rolled to a 44-20 upset.

I said Pitt would pull off a road upset behind its opportunistic defense (three turnovers forced) at SMU. The Mustangs destroyed the Panthers 48-25.

(Photo of Kurtis Rourke: Jordon Kelly / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Travis Kelce said his brother Jason Kelce was defending his family when he reacted to a heckling fan Saturday by slamming the fan’s phone onto the ground. The brothers discussed the incident, which led to a Penn State police investigation and included Jason exchanging a homophobic slur with the fan, on an episode of their “New Heights Podcast” released Wednesday.

“I know it’s weighing on you, brother. … Everybody passing around the videos that are out there. That’s gonna make it a bigger situation than, I think, what it really is,” Travis said on the podcast.

“But the real situation is you had some f— clown come up to you and talk about your family and you reacted in a way that was defending your family. And you might have used some words that you regret using. And that’s a situation that where you just kinda have to learn from and own.”

Jason, a former Philadelphia Eagles center, was in State College to appear on “College GameDay,” which was in town for Saturday’s matchup between Penn State and Ohio State. While outside Beaver Stadium, a fan walking behind Jason can be heard on video using a homophobic slur regarding the relationship between Taylor Swift and Travis. The fan said: “Kelce, how does it feel that your brother is a fa— for dating Taylor Swift?”

Jason then turned around and appeared to take the phone of the fan who said the slur and throw it on the ground. The fan demanded Jason give him the phone back and Jason responded: “Who’s the fa— now?”

Jason Kelce previously addressed the incident on ESPN’s “Monday Night Countdown” and said he was “not proud of it.” On the podcast, he expressed further remorse, saying he’s “not happy about the situation.”

“Me reacting gave him the time of day and it also gave the situation notoriety,” Jason said. “That’s what I regret. It didn’t deserve attention. It’s really stupid. And if I just keep walking, it’s a nothing burger. Nobody sees it. Now it’s out there and it just perpetuates more hate.

“The thing I regret the most is saying that word, to be honest with you. The word (the fan) used, it’s just ridiculous and it takes it to another level. … It’s dehumanizing and it got under my skin.”

Travis commended his brother for “owning” the situation, telling Jason that “speaking about it shows how sincere you are to a lot of people in this world.”

“Especially what you said on Monday night that you … you don’t choose hate. That’s just not who you are,” Travis said.

A Penn State University Police and Public Safety spokesperson confirmed Tuesday the department is investigating the incident and the process for reviewing the case is ongoing.

Required reading

(Photo of Jason and Travis Kelce: Rob Carr / Getty Images)

This article is part of the “Beyond the Track” series, a dive on the surrounding scene, glamor and culture that makes a Grand Prix.

Max Verstappen’s fightback from 17th on the grid to win Sunday’s Sao Paulo Grand Prix will go down as one of the most important victories of his Formula One career.

Not only did it snap a 10-race streak without a victory (practically a lifetime by Verstappen’s standards), but as Lando Norris slipped from pole position to only finish sixth, the win also put Verstappen on the brink of clinching his fourth world championship.

It was a huge power shift, extinguishing hope that Norris could keep the title race alive to the finale in Abu Dhabi. And now, Verstappen could be crowned champion at the Las Vegas Grand Prix on Nov. 23.

Last year’s first running of the race along the famed Las Vegas Strip was a major milestone for F1. The sport spent over half a billion dollars to make the event happen, including a new, permanent paddock building that serves as its home in the United States, as well as serving as the promoter to run the grand prix. The circuit made sure to incorporate the famed Strip and Sphere, creating a spectacular visual event against the night sky.

Despite a difficult start to the race weekend with the cancellation of first practice and frustration over the scheduling, Las Vegas was one of the best races of the season, including an open fight for the lead that went down to the final laps and universal praise for the high-speed street track layout.

Verstappen, an early critic of the race for being “99 percent show and one percent sporting event,” sang “Viva Las Vegas” over his radio after crossing the line. Even he bought into the spectacle that had doubled down on being truly Vegas.

Although there are plans to tone down some off-track demands on the drivers and focus more on the local community, the current championship picture means Las Vegas has a chance to secure a place in F1 history.

Unlike last year, when Verstappen clinched the title four races earlier in Qatar, Las Vegas now must consider how to prepare for Verstappen’s coronation as a four-time world champion.

And the organizers would likely make it a championship celebration to remember.

How Verstappen can win the championship in Las Vegas

There is a straightforward scenario for Verstappen to secure the championship in Las Vegas: beat Norris in the race on Saturday night.

Verstappen is 62 points clear, with 86 still available in the drivers’ championship. If he is 60 points ahead of Norris by the end of the Las Vegas Grand Prix race weekend, then the title race is over.

Norris, the in-form driver before his difficult Sunday in Brazil, can keep the championship going to Qatar the following week by winning in Las Vegas. Finishing second or third would also stave off a title defeat, so long as Verstappen finishes behind and does not score the fastest lap bonus point. If Norris finishes between fourth and seventh, he would need to cross the line two places clear of Verstappen to keep the championship going.

The upshot of the place permutations is that Norris must outscore Verstappen by three points to carry things on to Qatar.

If Norris can put in the same kind of dominant display as he did in Singapore (F1’s most recent street race, where he won by 20 seconds), then it would put plans for a Las Vegas championship celebration on ice. Verstappen would face the prospect of clinching the title in Qatar for a second consecutive year.

But a team to watch out for in Las Vegas is Ferrari. Charles Leclerc led the team to a 1-2 finish at last month’s United States Grand Prix before teammate Carlos Sainz dominated in Mexico en route to victory. The Las Vegas track layout, complete with some tight, technical corners, should suit the strengths of the Ferrari car in a similar fashion to the circuit in Mexico. Leclerc took pole position last year in Las Vegas and was in contention for victory until the closing stages, eventually pulling off a last-lap overtake on Sergio Pérez to grab second place.

Ferrari’s form and Red Bull’s recent struggles in dry conditions mean that Verstappen wrapping up the title in Las Vegas is no sure thing. Post-race in Brazil, where the wet weather certainly helped his case, Verstappen seemed more optimistic about the team’s performance than he had been lately.

“I’m confident for the last three races that we can fight again, and especially in the race that we will be more competitive,” he said.

A dream scenario for Las Vegas

Any grand prix would love the status of being the race where a championship is won. But the thought of Verstappen clinching the championship in Las Vegas will excite many within F1.

Despite criticism from local groups over the disruption caused by the race’s lead-up and some fans’ frustration over the price of attending, last year’s first running of the Las Vegas Grand Prix was a huge commercial success for both F1 and the city.

A study by Clark County reported an estimated economic impact of $1.5 billion, over half of which was fueled by visitor spending. From a wider cultural perspective, a primetime Saturday night slot, starting at 10 p.m. PT, put F1 up there with the top sporting properties in Las Vegas and boasted a celebrity pull that took the race beyond its usual realms of coverage.

A general view of fireworks after the Las Vegas Grand Prix. (Clive Mason/Formula 1 via Getty Images)

Las Vegas wanted to put on a show unlike anything F1 had ever seen. As impressive as the race looked on TV and for those on the ground, there was no substitute for the on-track product: a spectacular race that included plenty of overtakes and an open fight for the victory, even if it ended in yet another Verstappen win, excited fans and meant the event lived up to the considerable hype.

F1’s improved competitive picture compared to 2023, when a Verstappen victory was almost accepted as part of proceedings, has already resulted in a boost for several circuits. Bobby Epstein, the chairman of the Circuit of The Americas in Austin, said that when Verstappen’s 2024 domination ended this summer, the track saw an uptick in ticket sales for the United States GP in October. It ended up being a sell-out event.

The same boost is likely to help Las Vegas. The race organizers have always claimed that Las Vegas is often a last-minute market, and there was a later marketing push for this year’s race that started in earnest with 100 days to go. That build-up of late interest may accelerate with the possibility of it being the championship decider.

It would also give the race organizers the chance to give a distinctly Las Vegas flavor to any championship celebrations. Following last year’s grand prix, the top three finishers were chauffered in a limo from parc ferme to the Bellagio, where they conducted interviews in front of the famed fountain before returning to the grid for the podium ceremony as a huge fireworks display erupted over the city.

Given the involvement of the local casinos, who are partners of the event, and their penchant for high-end hospitality and, where required, extravagance, getting involved in any potential championship celebrations will be highly appealing. There will be a degree of gambling involved – fittingly for Las Vegas – in how thorough any preparations for marking the championship win will be, considering it’s far from a sure thing for Verstappen.

Las Vegas is leaning on the fact it has a “playbook” and hasn’t required the same kind of disruption as last year to get the track complete going into year two. It now wants to be a race for everybody, focusing on accessibility. But given the enormity of the effort by F1 to make the race happen and the white-hot spotlight that was placed upon Las Vegas last year, to add in the coronation of a champion in what has been a classic season will inevitably be a huge source of excitement to the organizers – and the fans planning to attend.

For Verstappen, he doesn’t care where the championship is won. So long as he does it.

“I just want clean races to the end,” he said after his Brazil win. “I’m not thinking about clinching the championship in Vegas or whatever. I just want clean races.”

The Beyond the Track series is part of a partnership with Chanel.

The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Partners have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication.

Top photo: Chris Graythen/Getty Images