Culture
The 49ers’ shrinking window and how Brock Purdy fits (or might not): Sando’s Pick Six
Sunday provided an extreme example of what the San Francisco 49ers can look like, at their worst, with Brock Purdy left to fend for himself on offense.
Star running back Christian McCaffrey remained out. Starting receiver Deebo Samuel fell ill shortly before kickoff and lasted three snaps. The other starting receiver, Brandon Aiyuk, suffered a likely season-ending knee injury shortly before halftime.
If Purdy had carried the 49ers past the two-time defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs with all that stacked against him, what else would remain for him to prove? That Purdy tossed three interceptions in a dreary 28-18 defeat might not change how the 49ers feel about their QB.
But the moment does provide an opening to consider the 49ers’ future as they move closer to the day when the 2024 season ends and Purdy becomes eligible for a massive contract extension.
“It could get tricky for them,” an exec from another team said.
The Pick Six column leads with the 49ers’ future in light of their 3-4 start to the season and important decisions that await. The full menu:
• Brock Purdy and the 49ers’ future
• A new Deshaun Watson conversation
• NFC North fallout: Lions, Vikings, Pack
• Jerry Jones is no Al Davis (that’s a good thing)
• Saints’ cap problems aren’t cap problems
• Two-minute drill: Tomlin’s QB decision
1. The 49ers are 3-4 and suffering from injuries that could threaten their championship window. What happens when they pay Purdy?
Purdy and Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes combined for zero touchdown passes and five interceptions Sunday. It was possibly a one-off game for both teams, unless the 49ers have reached a breaking point with injuries, which is possible.
Before Sunday, this 49ers season was largely a testament to Purdy’s ability to produce in an offense lacking McCaffrey, who remains sidelined indefinitely. Purdy was scrambling more and completing longer passes into tighter windows, which some saw as evidence that he’s more than just another system quarterback in a Kyle Shanahan offense.
Yes, Purdy struggled against the Chiefs’ man coverage schemes without McCaffrey, Aiyuk and Samuel there to help him (Aiyuk dropped a long pass at one point). But he has shown an ability to produce without all of his weaponry available.
The table below compares Purdy’s career production with and without McCaffrey on the field, provided either Aiyuk or Samuel was on the field when McCaffrey was not. This seemed like a fair way to measure Purdy’s production without McCaffrey, who is an elite game-plan consideration, provided Purdy still had at least one of his starting receivers.
The numbers are barely distinguishable.
Purdy career stats: McCaffrey on/off field
Situation | McCaffrey | No McCaffrey* |
---|---|---|
Pass plays |
745 |
313 |
Cmp% |
67% |
66% |
Yds/att |
8.8 |
8.8 |
TD-INT |
40-14 |
16-5 |
Rating |
105.7 |
105.5 |
EPA/pass play |
+0.21 |
+0.20 |
EPA/pass att |
+0.32 |
+0.32 |
Avg air yds |
8.0 |
9.1 |
% Yds after catch |
50% |
35% |
Explosive pass % |
22.4% |
20.4% |
*Aiyuk or Samuel on field |
Even the best quarterbacks require a baseline level of weaponry to operate. Purdy likely dipped below that baseline Sunday against a very good Chiefs defense.
The larger trend is clear. Purdy’s production through 34 regular-season and postseason starts outpaces the production of his predecessor, Jimmy Garoppolo, under Shanahan. While the 49ers led the Chiefs by 10 points in separate Super Bowls with each of these QBs in the lineup, only to lose, Purdy has been demonstrably better.
That’s all fine, but what happens if, two years from now, Purdy is earning $55-60 million per year and San Francisco no longer has the roster to support him?
There are early signs the 49ers could be trending in that direction.
The 49ers could have decisions to make at receiver. Aiyuk and Samuel have option bonuses due in March; Aiyuk’s is guaranteed, while Samuel’s is not. The gap between the start of the league year and when those bonuses are due could provide a trade window before the bonuses hit the 49ers’ cap. Aiyuk’s knee injury could complicate things, but it’s fair to wonder what the longer-term future holds.
Left tackle Trent Williams is year-to-year at age 36. Tight end George Kittle, 31, will be in a contract year next season and could have leverage with a higher cap number.
San Francisco’s roster this season is the NFL’s third-oldest by snap-weighted average age. The Chiefs’ roster, in contrast, is the third-youngest by the same measure. That reveals which team is set up better for the long term.
While the Chiefs were restocking their defense through the draft in recent years, using first-round picks on cornerback Trent McDuffie and defensive end George Karlaftis, the 49ers were trading away a haul of picks in the ill-fated move to acquire Trey Lance.
San Francisco has funneled cash into its defense, signing Javon Hargrave (who is out for the season with a triceps injury) for $21 million per year. The 49ers have also hit on mid- and late-round picks. But they still have the NFL’s oldest offense and eighth-oldest defense, weighted for playing time.
“That is probably San Francisco’s biggest issue,” a different exec said. “They are starting to feel three first-round picks for Trey Lance. They have done a good job drafting with later picks. It is great they got Purdy. He makes up for one of those first-round picks, but not two others.”
Execs around the league have anticipated the 49ers extending Purdy’s contract in the coming offseason — his first time eligible for a new deal — even though Purdy is signed through 2025.
“They need to make a decision about whether they should just be moving on from this older core and building around Purdy, or do they trade Purdy, get stuff for him and go with a cheaper option at quarterback?” another exec said.
Wait, what?
Purdy is one of 45 quarterbacks to make at least 10 starts since 2022. He ranks first among them in passer rating (107.9), yards per pass attempt (9.2) and EPA per pass play (.214).
Who would trade a young quarterback as productive as that? The answer, so far, has been nobody. The exec was merely suggesting that Purdy, while good, does not belong in Tier 1 or the top of Tier 2, and that other teams in similar situations might have been better off, in retrospect, swinging trades than paying top dollar for their quarterbacks.
The Los Angeles Rams with Jared Goff, the Miami Dolphins with Tua Tagovailoa, the Dallas Cowboys with Dak Prescott and the Minnesota Vikings entering their final season with Kirk Cousins were among the examples he cited.
“It’s about being a guy being a dude, and Purdy is not in that ‘dude’ category,” the exec said.
The more likely scenario: Purdy and the 49ers reaching an agreement on an extension before the 2025 season.
“When you have a head coach that has the vision, you know what it is going to look like in the future,” another exec said. “Having the quarterback signed adds to the predictability. You are able to navigate. A lot of other things fall into place, and you can continue to build it as the cap increases.”
There’s much to consider. The 49ers are home against the Cowboys in Week 8, followed by a bye and, two days later, the Nov. 5 trade deadline.
“A lot of people would trade their situations with San Francisco,” the exec added. “They just aren’t as deep as they typically have been.”
2. The Cleveland Browns lost Deshaun Watson to a likely season-ending torn Achilles tendon in their 21-14 loss to Cincinnati. We go beyond the complicated reactions.
Last week, we considered potential Cleveland exit strategies concerning quarterback Deshaun Watson. The conversation changed Sunday when Watson dropped back to pass, planted his back leg and crumpled to the ground.
Cleveland fans upset with the organization for investing so much in a player facing more than 20 lawsuits alleging sexual misconduct cheered as Watson writhed on the grass at the newly renamed Huntington Bank Field. Some of Watson’s teammates took offense.
“We should be ashamed of ourselves as Browns and as fans to boo anyone and their downfall,” defensive end Myles Garrett said.
Backup quarterback Jameis Winston cast Watson as a victim.
#Browns Jameis Winston on fans cheering Deshaun Watson while he was down on the field with his season-ending torn Achilles pic.twitter.com/RphsiUMxG6
— Mary Kay Cabot (@MaryKayCabot) October 20, 2024
The football-related implications are significant. The Browns bought injury insurance for Watson. That could provide some cash and salary-cap relief for the team, especially if Watson misses games next season, when his salary is a fully guaranteed $46 million.
The long recovery time for Watson also could make it easier for the Browns’ football leadership to convince ownership to head in another direction at the position, as fans have hoped they would. The team’s financial commitment to Watson has guaranteed him a spot in the lineup to this point. That cannot be the case indefinitely.
By this season’s end, Watson will have missed 33 of 52 games (including playoffs) — 11 due to suspension and 22 due to injury — since Cleveland acquired him. Watson also suffered two torn ACLs previously, one while practicing at Clemson, another while practicing with the Houston Texans. Availability was always a concern.
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Watson’s play in the 19 games he did start for the Browns has been shockingly unproductive. He ranks 43rd in EPA per pass play among 45 quarterbacks with at least 10 starts since 2022.
Fans frustrated with the Browns for sticking with Watson despite his historically poor production can feel better about the team now that another quarterback will be in the lineup.
There are people to feel good about in Cleveland. Nick Chubb scored a touchdown in his first game back from a horrific knee injury, providing a welcome feel-good moment Sunday.
The offense perked up in the fourth quarter once Winston replaced backup Dorian Thompson-Robinson following another QB injury, helping the Browns top 300 yards for the first time in a game this season. They still have yet to exceed 18 points in a game. Only nine teams since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger have had longer such streaks to open a season.
That leaves the Cleveland Browns as the only team in NFL or FBS that hasn’t scored 20+ points in a game this season https://t.co/9GQYX1IuGC
— Josh Dubow (@JoshDubowAP) October 19, 2024
The final nine games of this Browns season will likely provide additional damning statistical splits on what surely now must be the worst trade in league history. The offense seemingly cannot get worse.
3. The Lions sent a message to the Vikings, who sent a message back. The NFC North fun also extended to Lambeau Field, where Green Bay’s defense was again the equalizer. Let’s sort through the takeaways.
The Lions needed a last-minute field goal to score a 31-29 victory over the Vikings in a game that answered lingering questions.
• Lions message: Detroit brazenly attempted a fake punt on fourth-and-7 from its own 33-yard line on the game’s opening possession. Did the Lions think the Vikings, coming off a bye week, were not wise to their tricky tendencies? They apparently did not care then, or when Minnesota jumped to a 10-0 lead after one quarter. The Lions scored 21 unanswered points in a display that screamed, “You are a nice story, but we are the better team.”
Jared Goff in particular was exceptional. He has now completed 75 of 97 passes (77 percent) with five touchdowns and no interceptions in three games against Minnesota since Brian Flores became the Vikings’ defensive coordinator last season. He averaged 0.495 EPA per pass play Sunday, by far the best full-game figure for any quarterback against the Flores-era Vikings.
Minnesota still ranks second in defensive EPA per play this season, but the Lions showed again they can do more than function against this difficult-to-solve Vikings defense.
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• Vikings rebuttal: We entered Sunday wondering how Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold would fare if forced to play from behind. Darnold had attempted only two passes while trailing all season before Sunday. He was managing the Vikings’ success and contributing to it, not driving it. Minnesota’s defensive dominance drove its 5-0 start. What would happen when an opponent took a lead as large as the 21-10 margin Detroit built?
It wasn’t looking good for Darnold when the Lions’ Brian Branch intercepted him on the quarterback’s third pass after Detroit had taken a 14-10 lead late in the second quarter. But Darnold persevered. He completed 15 of 18 passes for 211 yards and a touchdown while trailing in this game. His passer rating (110.9), yards per attempt (11.7) and EPA per pass play (0.3) while trailing Sunday were all exceptional.
No one can say Darnold imploded when forced to play from behind. That’s great for the Vikings, even if this defeat stung.
Goff completed 10 of 11 passes for 121 yards and a touchdown when Minnesota led. And with Jahmyr Gibbs contributing two touchdown runs, including a 45-yarder, Detroit was able to win.
• Green Bay’s day: Jordan Love, whose eight interceptions are tied for the NFL lead even though he missed two starts, isn’t apologizing for possessing the Brett Favre risk-taking gene. He sometimes makes spectacular throws when routine ones are available. The payoff can be large, but the two picks he tossed Sunday cost the team 10.4 EPA.
Love has thrown at least one interception in each of his first five starts of 2024. That ties Love with Don Majkowski (1991) for the fourth-longest such streak for a Packers quarterback since 1970 (three Green Bay quarterbacks had six-game streaks, most recently Randy Wright in 1986, per Pro Football Reference). Four games was Favre’s longest streak to start a season with the Packers, so Love is in some notable territory here.
The day is coming when the Packers will need Love to minimize risk.
In the meantime, Green Bay’s defense has become the equalizer.
The Packers held Houston’s C.J. Stroud to 10 of 21 passing for 86 yards with four sacks — and still needed a last-second field goal to beat the Texans, 24-22.
Green Bay’s defense has finished with positive EPA six times this season, the most for a Packers defense through seven games since at least 2000. That made it much easier for Love to say what he said Sunday: “You can’t try to not be aggressive and take checkdowns all day. You have to be aggressive and go win those games. I’m going to play the way I play, learn from the mistakes and grow from them.”
4. It’s been a rough week for Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones, but a good decade by aging Hall of Fame owner/general manager standards. Raiders fans can attest to that.
Jones’ Cowboys won three Super Bowls in his first seven seasons of ownership (1989-95). They haven’t reached a conference championship game in the past 28, most of which came after Jones wrested control of the roster from the first coach he hired, Jimmy Johnson.
Dallas’ 47-9 defeat to Detroit in Week 6 invited scrutiny, including from the Cowboys’ flagship radio hosts, which Jones used as an opportunity to command the spotlight, his specialty.
If you haven’t heard the now-legendary radio segment where #JerryJones threatens to fire the hosts at the station carrying his games, for daring to ask questions about the #Cowboys sorry state…. https://t.co/fSlGHlfvzl
— Mark Davis (@MarkDavis) October 16, 2024
Jones’ overriding focus on marketing is intertwined with his desire to drive the conversation around his team, which might work against Dallas winning at the highest levels.
Whatever Jones’ motives were in this latest attention grab, we sometimes forget he is 82 and has maintained a level of success that could reflect changes in productivity for people his age. His Cowboys have remained competitive through Jones’ 70s and into his 80s with him remaining GM and face of the franchise. Dallas has avoided the Raiders’ spiral when their Hall of Fame owner/GM, Al Davis, was similarly aged and empowered.
Davis is the relevant comp for Jones. Both were owner/GMs whose teams won championships before the salary cap went into effect in 1993, and before teams learned to manage the cap years later. Both had to adjust to a new world thereafter. Davis got his Raiders to another Super Bowl (2002 season) when he was 73, but his team went into sharp decline from that point forward. Jones has kept his team in the mix.
Jones is 82, the age Davis was when he died four games into the 2011 season.
Davis’ ownership of the Raiders, which I trace to 1966, when he became part-owner, peaked at 146 games above .500 in his age-73 season. The team was 54 games below .500 over the remainder of Davis’ life. Jones is 33 games above .500 over the corresponding age period, but he is still measured against his franchise’s championship success decades ago.
Is 82 the new 70? Davis seemed much older in his late 70s and early 80s than Jones seems now. There are other differences.
“Al did not surround himself with people who would tell him no,” an exec who knew Davis said. “The structure Jerry has built for himself is better.”
While Davis was unwilling to cede control over personnel, Jones has leaned on his son, Stephen, and vice president of player personnel Will McClay over much of the last decade. That might be the key distinction relating to on-field success between Jones and Davis in their later years.
5. The New Orleans Saints’ unfolding salary-cap mess isn’t really a salary-cap mess at its core.
The Saints were so bad against the Sean Payton-coached Denver Broncos on Thursday night that they could have let another former New Orleans coach, Jim Mora, handle the postgame news conference.
On this night welcoming back former #saints coaches we need to let Jim Mora handle the postgame pic.twitter.com/LT5rYhzPtl
— Mike Sando (@SandoNFL) October 18, 2024
The fallout from the Saints’ 33-10 defeat has centered around a brutal salary-cap situation for New Orleans, one that critics have called inevitable. Told-ya-so takes have merit only to an extent.
I really don’t think folks understand the true scope of this disaster for New Orleans.
Their team is dreadful & old, and they have *no way to fix it* for a minimum of 3 more years.
The cap mismanagement that *some of us* have been discussing for years is coming home to roost. https://t.co/XVabFjW9DI
— nick wright (@getnickwright) October 18, 2024
The cap remains poorly understood partly because teams invoke it misleadingly when explaining why they make decisions. The Saints’ situation can help illustrate how the cap works.
Every team can extend its window by pushing cap implications into the future. This works if owners are willing to keep investing cash, if future salary-cap limits increase and, critically, if teams draft well and invest in the right players.
The Saints’ cap problems are really player problems.
“Anytime these teams get into cap trouble, it’s always player issues,” a team contract negotiator said. “They are not doing a good enough job of projecting when their players are going to decline, and they keep on pushing, pushing, pushing.”
New Orleans’ cap management worked when the Saints had Drew Brees playing at a high level and when they scored big in the 2017 draft with Alvin Kamara, Marshon Lattimore, Trey Hendrickson, Ryan Ramczyk and Marcus Williams.
For the current Saints, Cameron Jordan and Demario Davis are 35. Tyrann Mathieu is 32. Taysom Hill is an expensive part-time player. Ramczyk might never play again because of injuries. Those five are scheduled to count nearly $70 million against the Saints’ salary cap in 2025. New Orleans reworked their contracts and others to comply with the cap and add players such as quarterback Derek Carr.
If those players had bright futures and the Saints had continued drafting well after that 2017 blockbuster class, their cap situation would not be the problem that it is right now. New Orleans could keep reworking contracts, pushing cap charges into the future.
Instead, the Saints are stuck. You can say they mismanaged the cap, but more than that, they misevaluated the players they bet on.
“When you are doubling down on older, declining players, it is just a bad place to be in,” another exec said.
6. Two-minute drill: Mike Tomlin’s handling of the Steelers’ QB situation was only mysterious from afar
Tomlin benched Justin Fields for Russell Wilson and got a 37-15 victory over the New York Jets featuring Wilson’s third-best statistical game in 31 starts since leaving Seattle.
Wilson completed 16 of 29 passes for 264 yards and two touchdowns without an interception, and with only one sack. His EPA per pass play (0.23) was his third-highest over the past three seasons and his highest since a 2023 Week 4 victory at Chicago.
Thus ended an unconventional week of quarterback messaging from the Steelers’ coach.
Why would Tomlin consider replacing Fields after Fields had 10 total touchdowns with only two turnovers during the Steelers’ 4-2 start to the season? It was a great question for those who had not studied the Steelers’ offense.
“I can’t even fathom trying to tell Justin Fields, ‘Yeah, bro, you are going to sit down after being 4-2 coming out of a quarterback battle,” the analyst and former quarterback J.T. O’Sullivan said on his Patreon channel, The QB School, before studying Fields and the Steelers’ offense in their Week 6 game at Las Vegas.
Here’s what O’Sullivan said after studying every offensive play from the Steelers’ victory over the Raiders: “The film is bad. The score does not look as bad as the film is. You are winning. But I get it. I don’t even have to go back and watch another game. This game makes me feel like we are potentially … Justin Fields in trouble here. I totally understand why they would think that.”
Brandon Marshall stops by the postgame presser and asks Mike Tomlin if it was one of his boldest decisions to start Russell Wilson.
Tomlin: “that’s why I’m well-compensated.” pic.twitter.com/fQ5bdMsOtA
— Brooke Pryor (@bepryor) October 21, 2024
• Amari Cooper’s four catches for 66 yards and a touchdown beat Davante Adams’ three catches for 30 yards and no scores among veteran wideouts acquired by trade last week. Each receiver was credited with a drop. Cooper had two receptions gaining more than 15 yards. Adams had none.
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• The Jacksonville Jaguars’ 32-16 victory over the New England Patriots featured coach Doug Pederson alluding to the “middle eight” minutes during his on-field halftime interview.
Teams love the idea of breaking open close games by scoring late in the first half, then scoring early in the second half.
Jacksonville’s 15-0 differential across the final four minutes of the first half and the first four minutes of the second half Sunday was their largest in a game since 2011, and their third-largest since 2000, per TruMedia.
The Patriots’ minus-15 differential in the middle eight minutes was New England’s worst since at least 2000, spanning the entirety of the Bill Belichick era.
Patriots coach Jerod Mayo calling his team “soft” after this defeat recalled another linebacker-turned-coach, Antonio Pierce, accusing his players of making “business decisions” in the Raiders’ 36-22 defeat to Carolina (Pierce later apologized).
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Patriots’ Jerod Mayo calls team ‘soft,’ seems out of answers as losing streak continues
Linebackers play with great emotion. They also sometimes speak with emotion after difficult defeats.
Patriots HC Jerod Mayo: “We’re a soft football team across the board.” pic.twitter.com/ofTxcyTBq9
— Doug Kyed (@DougKyed) October 20, 2024
New England’s six-game losing streak is its longest since the 1993 team lost 11 of its first 12, including seven in a row. Robert Kraft purchased the team after that season.
• The Indianapolis Colts won 16-10 Sunday with Anthony Richardson completing only 10 of 24 passes for 129 yards. They won because they were facing the Miami Dolphins, whose quarterback situation remains dire while starter Tua Tagovailoa recovers from his concussion.
The schedule now gets tougher for Indianapolis with games against Houston (road), Minnesota (road), Buffalo (home), the New York Jets (road) and Detroit (home) next.
The Colts will need greater passing proficiency to beat those teams. They know they can get improved passing proficiency from Joe Flacco, but they also want to develop Richardson. It’s looking like that balancing act will define this season for Indianapolis unless Richardson makes progress quickly.
QB | Flacco | Richardson |
---|---|---|
Cmp-att |
71-108 |
49-101 |
Cmp% |
65.7% |
48.5% |
Pass yards |
716 |
783 |
Yds/att |
6.6 |
7.8 |
TD-INT |
7-1 |
3-6 |
Passer rating |
102.2 |
60.0 |
Sacked |
6 |
4 |
EPA/pass play |
+0.16 |
-0.11 |
Rushes |
6 |
35 |
Rush yds |
26 |
197 |
Rush TD |
0 |
1 |
• Saquon Barkley’s 176-yard rushing performance in his return to MetLife Stadium as a member of the Philadelphia Eagles was bad for the New York Giants.
Barkley’s performance contributing to a 28-3 Eagles victory was worse.
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Having these things happen after “Hard Knocks” cameras recorded Giants owner John Mara saying he would “lose sleep” if Barkley, a fan favorite, signed with Philly in free agency? On a day when Giants quarterback Daniel Jones passed for 99 yards and took seven sacks? Rough.
“I’ll have a tough time sleeping if Saquon goes to Philadelphia” – Giants owner John Mara
pic.twitter.com/LO7OMnRMlD— Crossing Broad (@CrossingBroad) July 17, 2024
• A few things stood out about the Seattle Seahawks’ 34-14 victory at Atlanta.
Indoor Geno Smith continued to excel. Smith has 25 touchdown passes with five interceptions in 12 indoor starts with Seattle (outdoors: 32 TDs, 22 INTs).
Seattle dominated in all three phases. This was the seventh time in 422 regular-season and postseason Seahawks games since 2000 that the team finished plus-5.0 EPA or better on offense, defense and special teams. Five of the other six games fell during the Pete Carroll era, most recently against the New York Jets in 2020.
The Seahawks’ defense was able to get the Falcons into third-and-6 or longer seven times, most for Seattle since Week 2. These plays produced a defensive touchdown when Boye Mafe sacked Kirk Cousins, forcing a fumble that Derick Hall returned for a touchdown.
The Athletic’s Ted Nguyen recently wrote about Los Angeles Chargers defensive coordinator Jesse Minter causing problems for opponents after getting them into third-down situations with at least 6 yards needed for a first down.
Seattle runs a similar scheme under coach Mike Macdonald, who worked with Minter in Baltimore. Sunday provided a glimpse of Macdonald’s defense in those situations.
THAT’S A DEFENSIVE TD!!! pic.twitter.com/O3atYPnaM7
— Seattle Seahawks (@Seahawks) October 20, 2024
(Photo: Ezra Shaw / Getty Images)
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Culture
Sara Errani serves up another tennis trophy for Italy at the Billie Jean King Cup
MALAGA, Spain — Sara Errani stands at the baseline and exhales deeply. She is about to hit a second serve, with Italy up match point against Poland. A place in the Billie Jean King Cup final is at stake. So Errani does what she has done many, many times before: she hits an underarm serve.
The ball floats into the service box and onto the racket of Iga Swiatek, one of two women’s players who can claim to be the best in the world. Swiatek is on to it in a flash and hits her return deep to Errani’s forehand. Errani again does what she has done many, many times before: she gets the ball back.
She does the same on her opponent’s next shot, hoisting a backhand lob into the air. Swiatek loops a forehand volley long and Italy is through to the final for the second year in a row.
Errani collapses to the ground in relief, celebrating with her partner Jasmine Paolini and shaking hands with the defeated opponents a few seconds later, before allowing herself a what-have-I-just-done smile.
For Errani, 37, it was another successful heist in a career full of them.
On Wednesday, she added a fourth Billie Jean King Cup title (three of which came when it was the Federation Cup) to the career Golden Grand Slam in doubles she completed this year by winning gold at the 2024 Paris Olympics alongside Paolini. It has been a stunning year for Errani, who also won the mixed doubles title at the U.S. Open with another Italian, Andrea Vavassori. She thought 2024 would be her last on tour, having won her last major 10 years ago.
“My thought last year was to play in the Olympics and then stop playing tennis, but we’re playing great in doubles and I’m having so much fun,” she said in an interview in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, at the WTA Tour Finals earlier this month.
Completing the doubles Golden Slam in Paris put Errani in an elite group of just seven women. When looking back on her career, the underarm serve to Swiatek on Monday will feel like a defining moment for a player who uses the contentious tactic more consistently and more particularly than anybody else.
Her story with the underarm serve goes to the heart of her tennis life.
The underarm serve is one of tennis’s most curious shots, caught between the poles of disrespectful trick shot and tactical masterstroke. Big servers like Nick Kyrgios can use it to take advantage of opponents who are standing back anticipating a 140mph rocket. There is an element of showmanship too; this is very much the case with Alexander Bublik. He might be blessed with a big serve, but he is also the current player probably most synonymous with the cheeky alternative.
Other players use it against specific opponents. World No. 68 Alexandre Muller told The Athletic at Wimbledon that he had specifically practised the shot to use it against Daniil Medvedev, who has one of the deepest return positions in the sport.
Corentin Moutet, a master of the shot, started practising underarm serves after a shoulder injury. He has since incorporated them into his game, doing so to great acclaim at this year’s French Open. He used the underarm serve 12 times in his third-round win against Sebastian Ofner, winning nine of those points. He is the opposite of a player like Kyrgios, using the underarm serve because he doesn’t expect to win free points behind his first serve; there is no drop-off in expected value.
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Errani’s reason for using the shot will be familiar to many amateur players: she just doesn’t trust her serve.
Errani stands at 5ft 5in (164cm) which is diminutive by modern tennis standards — just like her partner Paolini, whose serve has some heat despite her height of 5ft 4in. Errani does not have this pace, and her height has contributed to a shot often derided as the worst serve in the sport.
Smiling, she says it would be amazing to be a bit taller. “Many times, I think about that.”
Instead of letting her serve become a complete albatross, Errani has used her ground skills, tactical nous and the shock factor of a serve that regularly registers around 60mph (96.5kph) on the speed gun to reach the very top of tennis in singles and doubles.
She reached the 2012 French Open final in singles and cracked the world’s top five a year later, despite her opponents feeling that they ought to break her every single game. Instead, they are bamboozled by her incredible dexterity at the net or from the back of the court, as well as struggling to read and return her serve.
“It comes so slow and it kind of floats in the air,” Mirjana Lucic-Baroni said in a news conference after losing to Errani in the 2014 U.S. Open fourth round, a match in which Errani’s average serve speed was 76mph.
“It was really difficult to time the balls.” Errani’s serve became something of a meme in 2024 after Daniil Medvedev completely failed to return it at all during a mixed doubles match at the Paris Olympics.
Errani herself said in a news conference after that match that she has a different approach to serving from most players: “I don’t try to make winners,” she said.
“I just try to make kick, make slice, try to change my game. I need to start the point where I want. So sometimes is better for me to serve not that fast, because if you serve fast the ball is coming (back) faster.”
That conviction hasn’t always been there. Her serve reached a nadir in April 2019 when she was only recently back from a 10-month doping suspension for ingesting letrozole, which was increased from an original two months by the Court of Arbitration for Sport (CAS). Errani said she was “really disgusted” by the length of the ban, saying that her case was because of contamination after her mother, who was taking letrozole for breast cancer, dropped pills on their kitchen counter where they prepared meals.
At the Copa Colsanitas in Bogota, Colombia, Errani served 18 double faults per match in three consecutive matches (all of which she won) before hitting around half her serves underarm in a quarter-final defeat to Astra Sharma. Later that year at a low-level event in Asuncion, Paraguay, Errani took the nuclear option by serving underarm for the entire tournament. She reached the final, copping a huge amount of social media abuse in the process.
In response, she wrote on Instagram: “In Italy, I keep being insulted by a lot of people, regarding mainly my serve.
“If it is not ok for you, send a letter to WTA asking to change rules about serve or ask them to disqualify me for awful serve. If instead you just have other problems with me, send a letter to Santa.”
Five years on, she says her serve had completely overtaken everything else.
“I couldn’t compete. I was thinking all the time about my serve,” she says.
“My coach said: ‘Do one tournament all underarm and just compete.’ It was to try to make my head free from, not panic, but the tough moments.”
Despite recovering from those yips, Errani then endured an anxiety dream of a service game at the 2020 French Open during a second-round defeat to Kiki Bertens. Errani was given two time violations after five aborted ball tosses and landed only one overarm serve, with one attempt missing the baseline. Serving for the set, she was broken to love.
“Sometimes it’s there and it can come out, but I try to manage it,” she says of the nerves that can grip her when serving.
“When I was practising, my serve was good. But then in matches, I was feeling the block, the panic. I know it’s still there. It’s not like it’s in the past.”
Errani, an unwitting trailblazer, can laugh at the fact that the underarm serve has come back into fashion, certainly on the men’s side, over the past few years. “If it can be a good tactic, why not?” she laughs. Against Swiatek, the decision was more of a vibe.
“I just advised Jasmine after the first serve, so it’s just I feel it and I did it, just like that, not thinking too much,” she said in a news conference after the match.
At 37, Errani is the Italian team’s most experienced player, and as her team-mates chorused in Wednesday’s celebratory news conference she is “the brain of the team”.
Errani resembles her compatriot Jorginho, the Brazilian-born Italy and Arsenal midfielder who is so intelligent that he is a reference point for everybody else despite not being the most physically gifted.
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Paolini, who is the world No. 4 in singles and a two-time Grand Slam finalist this year, constantly looks to Errani for guidance on the doubles court.
“She wants me to tell her what to do every point – even when she serves, she likes me to tell her where to put it and I’m trying to push her to tell me what she’s feeling more,” Errani said.
Whatever the tactics, the Errani-Paolini partnership is contributing to a golden period for tennis in Italy.
On the men’s side, Jannik Sinner is the world No. 1 and has won two Grand Slams this year. He is part of an Italy team that is hoping to defend the Davis Cup this week and make it a double with the victorious BJK Cup group. Errani, who lived through a period when she was one of the ‘Fab Four’ Italian women who all reached a Grand Slam final and the world’s top 10 between 2010 and 2014 (Francesca Schiavone, Roberta Vinci and Flavia Pennetta were the others), believes that all the current top players from her country are pushing each other to greater heights.
And Errani has no desire to leave the golden age behind just yet. “I said to Jasmine: ‘I’ll continue next year for sure and then we’ll see,’” she says.
After the genre-defining underarm serve against Swiatek, this wily veteran still has at least one last heist in her.
(Top photo: Fran Santiago / Getty Images for ITF)
Culture
Ray Lewis wants FAU head-coaching job, but Charlie Weis Jr. still the frontrunner: Sources
FAU football, which rose to national relevance under Lane Kiffin, has backslid over the last five seasons under Willie Taggart and the recently fired Tom Herman. The Owls’ new coaching search, though, might be the most interesting one of this year’s coaching carousel.
And it got a little more interesting this week, as Miami great Ray Lewis has made it known that he really wants to be the Owls’ next coach, a source briefed on Lewis’ thinking said Wednesday.
The 49-year-old Lewis, a 13-time Pro Bowl linebacker, has observed the model of what Deion Sanders has done transforming Colorado football in the past two years and is expected to present a plan to the Owls’ leadership in the next week for how he’d do something similar at FAU.
Lewis’ old buddy, fellow Pro Football Hall of Famer Cris Carter, is the Owls’ executive director of player engagement and is expected to be a good resource for Lewis. A big hurdle for Lewis is, unlike Sanders, he doesn’t have any previous college coaching experience.
“Ray wants it bad,” the source briefed on Lewis’ thinking said. Lewis lives five minutes from the FAU campus. “He really wants it.”
Lewis, however, is not considered a serious candidate at this point, according to a source involved in the coaching search.
The frontrunner for the FAU vacancy, according to multiple sources involved in the search, is Ole Miss offensive coordinator Charlie Weis Jr. The 31-year-old son of former Notre Dame coach Charlie Weis, who lives a half-hour from Boca Raton, is the play caller at a hot Rebels program and runs the nation’s No. 2 offense, putting up 7.58 yards per play.
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The younger Weis was Kiffin’s former offensive coordinator at FAU and knows the program well. He has a lot of support from some key FAU people, according to sources involved in the search. Kiffin has strong influence back at FAU and will push Weis for the job, those sources said. Financially, Weis — who makes $1.65 million at Ole Miss — might have to take a pay cut to go back to FAU but a source briefed on the matter said he doubted that would stop Weis from wanting this job.
Other expected candidates for the FAU job
Georgia Tech offensive coordinator Buster Faulkner might make more sense for the Owls. The 43-year-old helped turn Tech from the ACC’s No. 11 offense to No. 3 last year. In 2022, the year before he was hired in Atlanta, Georgia Tech ranked last in the ACC in red zone offense. His offense is No. 2 in the ACC in red zone TD percentage.
Penn State assistant head coach/co-OC Ja’Juan Seider is a well-regarded coach with deep local ties and is expected to get some consideration. The 47-year-old Belle Glade, Fla., product was a star quarterback at Florida A&M and is well-connected around South Florida. Players really respond to him. He also has been a key assistant in Happy Valley, at Marshall and West Virginia.
UCF offensive coordinator Tim Harris Jr. has spent his whole coaching career in the state. He was a four-time NCAA All-American in track at Miami and then spent five years as a successful high school coach in South Florida at Miami’s Booker T. Washington High before spending seven seasons at FIU. Since then, he’s coached at Miami and UCF, where he has produced the Big 12’s most prolific offense at 6.76 yards per play.
UNLV offensive coordinator Brennan Marion, a former Miami Dolphins wideout who lived in Boynton Beach, not far from the Owls’ campus, might be an intriguing option. He has proven to be a terrific offensive coordinator in two stops at the FCS level before an excellent two-season run of transforming the Rebels into a winning program. Last year he led the Rebels to No. 6 in the country in third down offense and No. 8 in red zone offense despite his starting QB going down early and having to turn to an unproven freshman in Jayden Maiava, who went on to win Mountain West Freshman of the Year honors. This year, the Rebels, with Maiava having left for USC, are No. 6 in the nation in scoring at 39.9 points per game.
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FSU defensive backs coach Pat Surtain could be in play at his alma mater Southern Miss, but he also has strong ties here. He played a decade in the NFL before becoming a top high school coach in South Florida. The 48-year-old spent one season with the Miami Dolphins as an NFL assistant before joining FSU’s staff in 2023.
Georgia assistant head coach Todd Hartley, 39, spent three years coaching in South Florida on the Canes’ staff. He is someone Kirby Smart has leaned on in elevating the program since Hartley’s return to Athens in 2019. Southern Miss also has a lot of interest in Hartley for its head coaching vacancy.
Duke defensive coordinator Jonathan Patke, a Manny Diaz protege who was on the staff at Miami, is a rising star at defensive coordinator. He’s had a strong debut season in Durham and also could be in play.
Miami defensive ends coach Jason Taylor. The Pro Football Hall of Famer, who had been a high school assistant for five seasons at powerhouse St. Thomas Aquinas, is a legendary figure around South Florida. In 2007, Taylor won the NFL’s prestigious Walter Payton Man of the Year honors and has been an excellent addition to the Canes staff the past two seasons.
— Chris Vannini contributed to this report
Required reading
(Photo: Rob Carr / Getty Images)
Culture
Will NBA expansion bring the SuperSonics back to Seattle? ‘There’s just too much karma’
SEATTLE — When the SuperSonics left here in 2008, Brent Barry felt it in his gut. There was an emptiness, a sadness so pronounced that he was moved to put pen to paper.
At the time, Barry was preparing for training camp with the San Antonio Spurs, but part of his heart was still in Seattle, a bond forged through his five seasons as a wing with the Sonics. Now the team was no more thanks to an abrupt transaction that uprooted the franchise to Oklahoma City.
Barry’s mind was numbed with a blur of memories he captured in his poem, “When It Rains.”
“… and here I sit in my office space and think of my career
And what to say to my two sons, did the team just disappear?
I played in KeyArena, I live on Queen Anne Hill
I played pinball at Shorty’s after games, and ate burgers at both Red Mills
I would have some chowder down at Dukes, and watch Sea Planes take their flight
And find myself in Fremont if I needed a beer that night
I saw Star Wars at Cinerama, tossed a pitch at Safeco Field,
Drove all the way to Bellingham to see Pearl Jam and Yield …”
Sixteen years later, a collection of Sonics jerseys extends wall-to-wall inside the Simply Seattle store downtown. From Detlef Schrempf to Gary Payton to Ray Allen to Kevin Durant, the jerseys of Sonics legends are still a hot commodity.
“We get people from New Zealand, London, from all over,” store manager Kate Wansley said. “The Sonics are a big thing, and now everyone is excited about what could happen.”
What could happen has many in this Northwest metropolis tense with anticipation. In September, NBA commissioner Adam Silver said the league would address NBA expansion at some point this season, which prompted an already simmering movement in Seattle to bubble over.
Since 2008, Seattle has been waiting, expecting a franchise to return. And now, with overtures of the NBA’s first expansion since 2004, there is an overriding sentiment that Seattle is due.
“There’s just too much karma that says put a team back in Seattle,” says George Karl, who coached the Sonics from 1992-98, leading them to an NBA Finals appearance in 1996. “I don’t know more than anybody else, but my feeling is … that it can happen. It should happen.”
Karl is sipping iced tea and soaking in a picturesque view of Seattle’s Elliott Bay on a sun-splashed Thursday. He lives in Denver but is in town to help promote, support and encourage Seattle’s candidacy should Silver and the NBA Board of Governors decide to proceed with expansion.
As the Seahawks played host to the San Francisco 49ers at Lumen Field, Karl and former Sonics players Dale Ellis and Rashard Lewis attended a social event on the 75th floor of the Columbia Tower that included Seattle mayor Bruce Harrell, Seattle Sports Commission president and CEO Beth Knox and several business leaders.
“It’s a lot of anticipation; I feel like we are hanging on the edge of our seats, waiting,” Knox said. “We are ready.”
The event was important enough for Harrell that he postponed plans for his 66th birthday (he was quick to note he shared his birthday with Sonics legend Gus Williams) so he could spread what he calls “the buzz” about Seattle’s viability for expansion.
“We need to make sure the decision-makers — the NBA commissioner, the administration and co-owners — realize this is a very attractive market, and we have the fan base,” Harrell said. “They sort of know it, but this was 2008 when we lost the team, and we have a whole new generation of people in town, so we need to assure them we have that kind of spirit.”
In September, Silver tempered expectations when he said the league “is not quite ready” to discuss expansion before adding that eventually it will be broached. “What we’ve told interested parties is: ‘Thank you for your interest, we will get back to you,’ ” Silver said. “That’s certainly the case in Seattle.”
Still, hopes haven’t been this high here since 2013, when a bid to relocate the Sacramento Kings to Seattle reached a vote of NBA governors but was turned down 22-8 after Sacramento came up with new ownership.
Ellis, who played for seven NBA teams, said the city’s diversity, food and fan base kept him in Seattle for 20 years after his career ended. The 41-year history of the franchise, which includes the 1979 NBA title, is why he believes so passionately that the league should return. It’s why he flew to Seattle to support Thursday’s movement, a movement that he says stands more than a chance of landing a return of the Sonics.
“Chance? No, it’s going to happen. It’s going to happen,” Ellis said. “They just haven’t made the announcement yet. There will be two franchises, one here in Seattle, and one in Las Vegas.”
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Like so many former Sonics players and coaches, Barry felt he didn’t just play in Seattle, he felt he was part of Seattle. So losing the Sonics felt like losing part of himself.
It is that player-community connection that has made this movement to revive the Sonics unique. Other cities have lost NBA franchises — Vancouver, San Diego, Kansas City — but none have had former players and coaches campaigning for a return like Seattle.
Lewis, who played his first nine NBA seasons with the Sonics, flew into Seattle from Houston motivated by two factors: the history and the fans.
“Seattle has a part of me; I became a man here,” Lewis said. “And the fans … I still remember Big Lo (super fan Lorin Sandretzky), and fans pulling up to the airport when we arrived. There’s history, so much history here, and that’s why they have to have a team here.”
The 1990s in particular were a magical time for Seattle. Microsoft was booming. Bands from Seattle — Nirvana, Pearl Jam, Alice In Chains, Soundgarden — were leading the grunge explosion. “Singles” and “Sleepless in Seattle” hit movie screens. Ken Griffey Jr. was a superstar. And Payton, Kemp and the fiery Karl were headlining SportsCenter highlights.
“It all had this mystical essence to it,” Barry said. “Because nobody wanted to go to the Pacific Northwest. It was so far away, the weather was bad … but there was a lot of cool stuff happening in and around that place. So it had this mystical quality to it.”
Added Karl: “The city was blossoming, the music was blossoming, the city was growing, the Mariners were good … everything was just in rhythm. There was a rhythm that Seattle was cool. Pearl Jam, Starbucks, (Microsoft’s Steve) Ballmer … and (the Sonics) were good.
“Unfortunately, Michael (Jordan) was in the league.”
The electricity between the Sonics and the Seattle scene made for lasting bonds. For fans and the players.
“Spilling out from KeyArena after a game meant that you were in the bloodstream of the city,” said Barry, now an assistant coach with Phoenix. “You got out of the arena and you could walk across the street to Lazy J’s (Jalisco’s) and do karaoke with a bunch of fans who were just at the game. You could go to First Street and hop into a steakhouse and have a meal with fans who just left the game.
“To lose all that … it was a gut punch to a city that loved basketball, loved its team and had a relationship with the team that was unique.”
Portland Trail Blazers play-by-play announcer Kevin Calabro, who announced Sonics games for 22 years, said fans still ask him regularly if and when the Sonics will return, which is attributed to the connection formed during those memorable years in the 1990s.
“You had this great amalgam of cutting-edge technology with the internet coming to life and this great music scene and the Sonics bursting at the seams,” Calabro said. “And it all came together on winter nights at The Barn, as we used to call KeyArena. Jeff Ament (Pearl Jam bassist) was down in the baseline seats all the time, Eddie Vedder (Pearl Jam singer) was around, Screaming Trees … all these bands would show up.
“And when George Karl took over, it just lit a fire. There were so many great characters … and they were all involved with the community. You could feel them, touch them, see them at the clubs, hang with them. It was special.”
Wansley, the store manager who hangs the Sonics jerseys from wall to wall, is a lifelong Seattle resident. She said her deepest bonds are with the Sonics because she experienced them in everyday life. She saw Nate McMillan and Sam Perkins at Bellevue Square, Kemp and Gary in the store, Dana Barros here, Schrempf there.
“It was something that just connects you to them,” Wansley said. “You would go to the game, then see them out … and I don’t know how it is in other cities, but they were just out in the community so much. It would be like, ‘Hey, I just saw you play …’ ”
Seattle has been down this road of anticipation before. The 2013 bid to relocate the Kings to Seattle was so close to happening — and so ugly in its particulars — that its downfall left some scars.
But the overall sentiment today is that Seattle is well positioned, if not a leader when expansion becomes a reality. Much of the optimism stems from Climate Pledge Arena, the refurbished KeyArena, which now houses the NHL’s Seattle Kraken.
“There literally hasn’t been a week where I haven’t been asked about the Sonics or the NBA or how we got screwed,” said Bob Whitsitt, who was president and general manager of the Sonics from 1986-94. “And for years, I said to them — right or wrong — that Seattle was not in a position to even be considered for a team until they have an NBA-ready facility.
“And that giant hurdle has now been cleared with Climate Pledge Arena. As a city, we know we have a facility that works. That doesn’t guarantee you a team, but you can be guaranteed not to get a team by not having a facility. So, the biggest thing has been taken off the board.”
Whitsitt still lives in Seattle and said he is encouraged by a potential ownership group led by Kraken owners David Bonderman and his daughter, Samantha Holloway. Bonderman also is a minority owner of the Boston Celtics.
“My support is behind them,” Whitsitt said. “They are the right ones. They are the perfect people to lead the thing. And the Seattle market is not only great, it is ready.”
Last month, more than 18,000 sold out the LA Clippers and Trail Blazers exhibition game at Climate Pledge Arena, which more than caught the eye of coaches Chauncey Billups of the Blazers and Tyronn Lue of the Clippers.
“I mean, everybody talks about it,” Billups said. “This is obviously a desired city, a market that people love … it makes the most sense. It’s already been very successful, the market has, so it makes a lot of sense. We just have to wait on it.”
Added Lue: “It’s a great environment, a great place to play … they’ve done a great job with this arena.”
Brian Robinson, a Seattle real estate investor, heads Seattle NBA Fans, the group that hosted the event with Karl, Lewis, Ellis and the mayor. He has 250 community leaders and 50 CEOs behind his movement. He also headed a 2010 group that tried to find an arena solution to lure the Sonics back. He said then, it was difficult to get business leaders and companies behind him.
“Now, no one ever says no,” said Robinson, 51. “People see the change in tone from the commissioner and they see a path. Everyone wants to be a part of it. I just feel like the people of Seattle are over the negativity and they are ready to have this journey be something meaningful.”
Mayor Harrell and Knox, the CEO of the Seattle Sports Commission, are envisioning a future where Sonics players become role models and inspire youth to not only participate in basketball, but dream. Seattle has a long history of producing NBA talent, including Brandon Roy, Jason Terry, Jamal Crawford, Paolo Banchero and Dejounte Murray. Barry thinks the Sonics can help inspire others.
“How do you dream bigger if you don’t see it in front of you?” Barry asked. “I was thinking if I never went to Golden State games as a kid to watch Chris Mullin, Tim Hardaway and Mitch Richmond, how much of my devotion and love of the game would have been depleted by not having the touch, the autograph, the memories? The impact can’t be overstated.
“There’s almost 20 years of kids in Seattle who never saw one game in their city of LeBron James, one of the greatest players who ever played. Twenty years of kids, and parents for that matter, who haven’t had that community, that environment, that experience. It hurts.”
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Last month, Barry thought back to the day when he penned the “When It Rains” poem. He rifled through his files and found it.
“Even reading it again, I was like, ‘Man, I still feel this way. It sucks,” Barry said. “I was sad. Legitimately sad. But right now, I don’t think there has ever been more sentiment or momentum than right now. And I hope it’s not another carrot in front of the rabbit situation. I hope this momentum is true and honest and there is potential for the green and gold to be back there.”
It was the same thought he had 16 years ago, in San Antonio as he closed his poem.
“… A chapter left unwritten, a generation with a gap,
Forty-one years of NBA action and now no one can clap
But here is a silver lining … above every cloud’s a sun
And the possibility is something we hold on to even if slim to none
For faith and hope and love are tenants
Of the days as one grows old
And for all at stake, those clouds will break
And we will see the green and gold.”
(Illustration: Meech Robinson / The Athletic; photos: Steph Chambers, Tim DeFrisco, Otto Greule Jr, Andy Hayt, Jeff Reinking, Terrence Vaccaro / Getty Images)
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