Connect with us

Culture

Rafael Nadal is ready to play again. In America. On hard courts. Should he?

Published

on

Rafael Nadal is ready to play again. In America. On hard courts. Should he?

For more than a month, the smoke signals out of Rafael Nadal’s camp have kept the tennis world on its toes, sparking predictions of everything from a triumphant spring on the red clay of Paris to him never playing another competitive match following yet another hip injury in Australia in January. 

The only thing that seemed clear was that the 22-time Grand Slam champion was prioritizing the clay court season in Europe this spring. Nadal said as much in January when he returned following a year-long layoff because of hip surgery. 

Sure, he was happy to be back and competing in Australia, where he won the year’s first Grand Slam as recently as 2022, but he was singularly focused on being in top form — or, at least, as close as he can get to it at this point — in three months when the red clay tournaments begin in earnest. 

That was part of why he skipped the Australian Open once he suffered a small muscle tear near his hip three matches into his latest comeback. Logic suggested Nadal would wait until tennis returned to the organic surfaces that are far less taxing on the body and where an ageing, injury-prone player like Nadal, who is 37 and plays the most physical style of tennis, would have the best chance of staying healthy. 

Few were surprised when he announced this month on social media that he was pulling out of a hard-court tournament in Doha. It was the second sentence of that post that caught some off-guard. 

Advertisement

“I will focus on keep working to be ready for the exhibition in Las Vegas and the amazing Indian Wells tournament,” Nadal wrote on Valentine’s Day.

That would be an MGM Resorts exhibition match against the 20-year-old Spanish sensation Carlos Alcaraz this weekend in Las Vegas, which will be streamed on Netflix, and then the BNP Paribas Open in nearby Indian Wells, California, which begins next week.

Now that struck some as odd. Still, there was plenty of time for him to pull out of those events and spend another few weeks in Spain preparing for the clay.

And then, last week, Novak Djokovic posted a picture of him and Nadal on the same flight as Nadal made his way to the United States. “Vamos”, Djokovic wrote. Game on — at least, in theory. 

The question, though, is why? 

“If he is fit, he wants to play,” his longtime spokesman, Benito Perez-Barbadillo, said on Monday. “He is a tennis player and wants to play at the biggest tournaments. And he loves Indian Wells.”

As Patrick McEnroe, the commentator and former player calling the match against Alcaraz, pointed out, Nadal often thrives on the slow hard courts of Indian Wells, where he has won three times and made the finals on two other occasions.

Injuries in exhibitions are extremely rare, but will an exhibition and a hard-court tournament in March, even one Nadal loves as much as Indian Wells, improve his chances of being fit enough to compete for the title at the French Open in May and June, where he has won 14 times and there is a statue of him swatting his bull-whip forehand outside the main stadium? In recent years, Nadal has shut himself down after Indian Wells for roughly three weeks to begin honing his timing and conditioning for two months of clay court tennis, where the timing and style of play are markedly different from hard courts.  

The elephant in the room here is money.

It’s always uncomfortable to count other people’s money, to suggest what should be enough. That is especially the case with professional athletes, whose careers are generally over by 40 and who have grown accustomed to a certain lifestyle.

That said, Nadal has won more than $134million in prize money during his 20-plus-year career. He has collected tens of millions, maybe more, in sponsorship and appearance fees. Terms of his deal with MGM and MGM’s deal with Netflix are not public, but he is likely to collect at least $1million for the Alcaraz match given how much he and other players of his caliber have earned for playing similar events

go-deeper

Nadal won’t receive an appearance fee to play at Indian Wells, since it is a mandatory tournament for healthy players. He has other incentives. Larry Ellison, the billionaire founder of Oracle who owns the tournament, has become a friend and hosts Nadal at his private resort. 

There, Nadal can pursue his other passion — golf. He has been known to play 18 or even 36 holes a day during his time in the desert and he’s already been out on the links in California.

Advertisement

(Quality Sport Images/Getty Images)

It’s a good life. The question is whether he is risking the clay season, where he likely has his best chance to win a 23rd Grand Slam singles title. Nadal would likely try to dismiss that thinking or anything that might suggest he is some kind of clay court specialist. 

“I think it’s fine,” said Paul Annacone, the longtime coach (Roger Federer, Taylor Fritz) and commentator. “He’s in California practicing already, getting acclimated. So the only issue is if he’s not 100 percent.  Then don’t go. But I don’t think he’d be here in California if he wasn’t close to 100 percent and ready for Indian Wells.”

Days after pulling out of Doha, Nadal posted a video of himself practicing slow service returns with the caption, “Work in progress.” There have been more videos since he arrived in Indian Wells, but no footage of anything approaching intense. 

go-deeper

All of this has only added to the larger mystery surrounding when Nadal might call it quits for good. Last year, not long after his hip surgery, he suggested that 2024 would be his last season and serve as a kind of farewell tour as he visited the tournaments and cities that had meant the most to him during his career.

Then he showed flashes of his old self during his three matches in Australia and got a taste of the competition he craves. He has not committed to any hard-and-fast timetable since, insisting he is taking it day by day.

The Olympic Games tournament will take place at Roland Garros this summer, the site of the French Open. There had been speculation that might serve as his walk-off. Then he signed a deal to serve as an ambassador with Saudi Arabia’s tennis federation and to play in an exhibition in Riyadh in October with Djokovic, Daniil Medvedev, Alcaraz, Jannik Sinner and Holger Rune. That setting would seem like an odd choice for his final matches. 

Advertisement

The Davis Cup finals will take place in Spain one month later. Perhaps then?  That is, assuming he can make it that far without another serious injury.

For now, and for better or for worse, he has a big payday in Las Vegas and a hard court tournament (and plenty of golf) in the California desert to focus on.

(Top photo: William West/AFP via Getty Images)

Advertisement

Culture

Women’s basketball isn’t having a moment. This is our new reality

Published

on

Women’s basketball isn’t having a moment. This is our new reality

I was in the seventh grade the first time sports writing gave me a visceral feeling. UConn capped a 39-0 season to win its third national title in eight years, and I anxiously awaited the delivery of Sports Illustrated.

When it arrived, Maryland’s Juan Dixon graced the cover, but across the April 8, 2002, edition of the magazine’s top, it read: “UConn’s AMAZING WOMEN, Pg. 44.”

I immediately flipped past “Faces in the Crowd,” where you could reliably see female athletes in the magazine in 2002, and tore through the feature that detailed the lives of UConn’s close-knit seniors: Sue Bird, Swin Cash, Asjha Jones and Tamika Williams. How they lived together off campus. Cooked weekly family dinners. Fought over card games and bet about who would be the first to cry on senior night. … I ate it up.

These details stayed with me years later, because as a women’s college basketball fan in the 1990s and 2000s, there wasn’t much out there to consume about the most exciting teams and players. You rarely forgot anything. Facts just existed in your brain (sometimes for the next 20 years).

After rereading the UConn story, I turned to the back page to check out the column I always read — “Life of Reilly.”

Advertisement

The headline? “Out of Touch with My Feminine Side.”

“You think it’s hard coaching in the Final Four? You think it’s tough handling 280-pound seniors, freshmen with agents, athletic directors with pockets full of pink slips?” columnist Rick Reilly began. “Please. Try coaching seventh-grade girls. After working with boys for 11 years, I helped coach my daughter Rae’s school basketball team this winter. I learned something about seventh-grade girls: They’re usually in the bathroom.”

Those few pages about UConn’s intense, elite women were sandwiched by a three-word headline on the cover and 800 words better suited for bad movies or lazy literature on the back page. It was disappointing and frustrating. Worst of all, even to my seventh-grade self, it was expected.

For so much of sports history, women athletes (and their fans) have had to accept the highs with the lows and move forward, understanding that too often the lows were intentional — a lack of investment, institutional support or attention. Later, those lows were artificial reasons to continue holding down and holding back the sport. It’s the women’s sports Catch-22.

The “Caitlin Clark Effect” poured over into the WNBA this summer, and teams across the league — not just the Fever — drew record crowds and massive TV ratings. As the women’s college season began this week, even without the stars that pushed women’s college hoops to new levels, interest remains.

Advertisement

GO DEEPER

Paige Bueckers vs. JuJu Watkins: How UConn, USC stars will keep women’s basketball in spotlight

Defending champion South Carolina sold out its season ticket packages for the first time in program history. UConn sold out its season tickets for the first time since 2004. LSU and Iowa, without Angel Reese and Clark, respectively, sold out. Texas, Notre Dame and Tennessee are also reporting huge increases.

Five months before the national title game, tickets are sold out for the Final Four, and the resale market is buzzing. Nosebleeds for the national championship game are nearly $200, while a courtside seat will run close to $3,000.

Nobody in women’s hoops has won like Dawn Staley — Final Fours as a player, national titles as a coach, Olympic golds as a player, Olympic gold as a coach. Her South Carolina office drips with memorabilia. Yet, among all of her special accomplishments, this particular moment in women’s college basketball feels uniquely different to her. “It feels like we’re free to just explore where this game can go,” she said. “There’s no boundaries on us, and because of that, you’re seeing talent, you’re seeing coaching, you’re seeing fan support, you’re seeing viewership — you’re seeing all of those things.”

Staley speaks often and openly about how the women’s game was intentionally held back by so many for so long. First, by the exclusion of women in sports before Title IX. Then, by the NCAA, which prioritized men’s college basketball. Also, by television media partners, which refused to put the game in front of as many as possible (and then used that lack of audience as a reason to not air it on major networks), and in print media coverage, which refused to write about women’s sports (and then often claimed no one read about it).

Then came last season. A year in which the women’s national title game pulled in nearly 4 million more viewers than the men’s title game, just three years after the Kaplan Report exposed the NCAA’s intentional undervaluing of the game and allowing its media partners to underpay.

“This,” Staley said, with a pause, motioning with her hands to indicate everything over the past year. “I never thought it would come during a time when I could be a part of it.”

Advertisement

Anyone who has been around women’s basketball will share guarded optimism as well as excitement for this season. Will this finally be the tipping point? Will the forces that held back the game permanently move out of the way?

Tara VanDerveer has seen it all, including what she thought was the turning point. Twenty-two thousand people showed up for Iowa vs. Ohio State in 1985, her first season in Columbus. But it turned out to be an outlier. Throughout her career, which began with her driving the team bus and doing the laundry as an assistant coach and ended last season at Stanford with three title rings and 1,216 career wins, she experienced those starts and stops, times when a moment could’ve turned into momentum if it had investment, support and excitement.

“We needed to build on that, not have it be a one-off,” VanDerveer said. “Keeping our eye on the ball, keeping having the game grow. More young girls playing. Great high school tournaments, enthusiasm for the college game. People being excited about the WNBA.”

VanDerveer says today feels like that.

Advertisement

Clark pushed the game to new heights last season. This year, USC’s JuJu Watkins, UConn’s Paige Bueckers and the Gamecocks — on a 39-game winning streak — are poised to continue the momentum. NIL has completely changed how women’s basketball players are marketed (and given them power), bringing in new fans. The transfer portal opened player movement and democratized the game’s increasing parity. Look around and you’ll see as many as 10 teams that look capable of heading to the Final Four. Gone are the days when a UConn or Tennessee could win so much they were blamed as being bad for the sport.

Less than a week into the season, we’ve already seen top-five teams pushed to the brink. The talented stars in women’s hoops? They draw. But the parity, which has never been better, and true belief that on any given night, anything could happen? That’s riveting.

What we’re seeing is long overdue, and it still feels like it’s just getting started.

For decades, women’s college hoops deserved better than playing second fiddle in the NCAA’s orbit. It needed to be untethered so that the moments could fit together into something bigger and better. It was worthy of more than three words on the front cover and a patronizing column on the back page. It deserved the full spread. So please, decision-makers and stakeholders, don’t mess this up.

There’s a new generation of seventh-graders watching.

Advertisement

(Photo of Dawn Staley: Sean Rayford / Getty Images)

Continue Reading

Culture

The NFL is heading to Germany – and the country has fallen for American football

Published

on

The NFL is heading to Germany – and the country has fallen for American football

A weekly ritual begins when the clock strikes 7pm on a Sunday in Germany.

Whether over a barbecue, a meet-up with friends, or from the comfort of their homes, hundreds of thousands settle in for their dose of NFL action, much like their American counterparts.

On the channel that broadcasts the German versions of I’m a Celebrity… Get Me Out of Here! (Ich bin ein Star — Holt mich hier raus!) and Germany’s Got Talent (Das Supertalent), fans can watch one of the early slate games live followed by another in the later slot. Two games for, well, nothing. The free-to-air German-language broadcast makes viewing easy and is helping to attract a new generation of NFL enthusiasts in Europe.

Close to 70,000 will visit the sold-out Allianz Arena in Munich on Sunday as the New York Giants and Carolina Panthers face off in the final game of this year’s international series, giving German fans the rare chance to experience the NFL live on home soil.

It will be the fourth time Germany has hosted a regular-season game, the first being at the same venue in 2022 while Frankfurt’s Deutsche Bank Park played host to two games in 2023, which was the year RTL started broadcasting NFL games in the country after acquiring exclusive free-to-air rights until 2028.

Advertisement

The broadcaster’s audience is growing. On average, the channel brought in 710,000 viewers during the 7pm regular-season games in 2023, up from 660,000 the year before when it was shown on ProSieben, also free-to-air. The later game averaged 490,000 viewers, an increase of 50,000 viewers from the previous season, RTL told The Athletic. 

February’s Super Bowl saw an average of 1.71million fans watch on RTL, with peaks of up to 2.27m, the broadcaster said. In the United Kingdom, by comparison, viewership peaked at 761,000 and 996,000 on broadcasters Sky Sports and ITV respectively, the latter a free-to-air channel.

“The atmosphere we are trying to bring (to the broadcast) is first and foremost fun and excitement about the game of American football, get people excited and get them to fall in love,” Patrick Esume, an expert NFL commentator on RTL, told The Athletic, “and the second step is to try to get some deep insights for those fans who have been around the NFL for some time.”


Patrick Esume, commissioner of the European League of Football, takes a selfie (Jürgen Kessler/picture alliance via Getty Images)

Esume started playing American football at the Hamburg Silver Eagles before moving to the Hamburg Blue Devils. The German balances punditry with his role as the commissioner of the European League of Football, a professional American football league founded in 2020 which has 18 teams split into three conferences. This forthcoming weekend, however, is one of the most exciting weeks in his calendar.

“It is our little Super Bowl that we have every year. It has its own style, it is unlike any other atmosphere. It is not soccer, it is not NFL in the U.S. It is different and it is special,” Esume said.

Advertisement

“Free coverage was the kickstarter to propel the game and the NFL to another level,” he added. Paid options with increased coverage are now available through DAZN, the NFL League Pass, and RTL+.


Tom Brady acknowledges the crowd in 2022 after his Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat the Seattle Seahawks at Munich’s Allianz Arena (Sebastian Widmann/Getty Images)

Daniel Jensen hosts an NFL-dedicated podcast called the Footballerei Show from Hamburg. He told The Athletic that the now-defunct NFL Europe, a competition that existed on-and-off for 15 seasons in various guises until it finally folded in 2007, provided the foundations from which interest in the sport has grown. Germany had provided the majority — and the most successful — teams in that league.

“The NFL Europe league started a base interest which has evolved,” Jensen said, adding that the absence of Bundesliga games, the top division in German soccer, on Sunday evenings, also contributes to the NFL’s popularity.

Soccer is the national sport. Historically, Germany has always been successful internationally, winning the men’s World Cup four times and the women’s World Cup twice. And in Bayern Munich, the country also boasts one of Europe’s most successful men’s teams.

Yet, Bayern’s dominance has made the Bundesliga predictable in recent history. The home team of the Allianz Arena, where Sunday’s NFL game will take place, had won 11 consecutive league titles between 2013 and 2023 before Bayer Leverkusen broke the spell last season.

Advertisement

In the same period, there were eight different Super Bowl winners. The NFL’s ability to level the playing field with salary caps and the draft offers German sports fans a variety and unpredictability they don’t often get in soccer, a sport where the most successful teams are often the wealthiest, and who consequently attract the best players. The NFL also provides fans with the physicality and combativeness lacking in some other popular sports in the country.

Last year, the regular season game between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Miami Dolphins in Frankfurt sold out in 15 minutes, with 1.42million people in the online ticket queue within two minutes, according to Sports Illustrated. The game averaged a regular season record of 1.35m viewers and peaked at 1.51m on RTL.

According to the NFL, there are approximately 19million fans in Germany, with 3.6m (18.9 per cent) following the NFL closely.

“I think around 20 to 25 per cent (of viewers) have a good grasp of the game and the rules, but the vast majority is actually around American football because they love the atmosphere that the broadcast brings to their living room,” explained Esume.

“They are there for the social part of it and then through that fall in love. It is our job to ensure we get more football experts here in Germany.”

Advertisement

On Instagram, as seen in the table below, the Chiefs and the New England Patriots are the most popular teams in Germany.

NFL German accounts by followers

“Different teams become popular depending on the era,” Jensen said. “All the German fans were into the ’90s Dallas Cowboys, Seattle Seahawks, and Pittsburgh Steelers, the Patriots and Green Bay Packers during the 2000s and 2010s, and the Chiefs right now. It is not like we have real roots with the teams like in America, so it is about finding a team you like.”

Ten NFL teams have international marketing rights in Germany as part of the NFL’s Global Markets Program, which allows franchises to build brand awareness and fandom beyond the US. Mexico is the only other country with the same amount.

Advertisement

It perhaps helps that there are plenty of German representatives in the NFL, too. Jakob Johnson is a fullback for the Giants, Marcel Dabo is on the Indianapolis Colts practice squad, while Minnesota Vikings running back Aaron Jones has worn a German flag on his helmet after spending time there during his childhood as his parents were in the U.S. Army. Indeed, the origins of the sport in Germany date back to when American soldiers were stationed in the country after the Second World War.

Amon-Ra St. Brown, a wide receiver for the Detroit Lions who was ranked the 23rd best player in the NFL by his fellow players in the NFL Top 100 Players of 2024, has a German mother, so possesses dual citizenship, and can speak German.

“St. Brown is not that much of a German sports star, like big soccer stars for example, more an NFL superstar at the moment but the next step would be to become more of a public figure in Germany and it would be very interesting to see if that is possible,” Jensen said.

Off the field, Gerrit Meier, head of the NFL’s international operations, is also a dual German and U.S. citizen. But for now, at least, some of the biggest stars in the country are former players who have become part of RTL’s expert line-up.

Esume said: “The vast majority of viewers see more of our on-air stars such as Bjoern Werner (former first-round pick and global ambassador for the Colts), Markus Kuhn (who played with the Giants), and Sebastian Vollmer (two-time Super Bowl champion with the Patriots).

Advertisement

“They are the true German rock stars when it comes to the NFL. They are even bigger stars than the active German NFL players because they are on our TVs every week.”

Encouraging for the sport, and RTL, is that younger audiences are showing an interest in the NFL. RTL recorded 23 per cent of their market, on average, as 14 to 29-year-old males during the 2023 regular season.


Duke Dennis returns an interception for a touchdown during a celebrity flag football game on 9 February, 2024, in Las Vegas (Ian Maule/Getty Images)

However, as Jensen points out, there is still work that needs to be done to increase participation.

The German Olympic Sports Confederation (DOSB) has 500 registered football teams with more than 70,000 members, according to sports marketing agency SPORTFIVE.  As of 2023, the German Basketball Association (DBB) had 242,344 members.

“Participation (in Germany) is the part the NFL needs to develop and work on,” said Jensen. “Issues with concussions and chronic traumatic encephalopathy (CTE) can be off-putting but that is why flag football will be good for the future.”

Advertisement

Flag football, where ball carriers are deemed to have been tackled when one, or both, of two flags attached to their waist are pulled off by a defending player, will appear at the 2028 Olympic Games in Los Angeles.

The NFL say the non-contact version of its sport is the world’s fastest-growing sport, with 20million players in 100 countries.

“Basketball is more developed in that part. It is a lot more of a domestic sport, people playing in our own league. But the NFL is more popular than the NBA right now,” he said.

There are 14 German players in the NFL Academy, based at Loughborough University in the United Kingdom. Since 2019, the program has provided full-time high-school education alongside American football training. More than 40 students have gone to the U.S. on scholarships, with 19 in NCAA Division 1 this season.

“The next step, I think, is to bring something like that to Germany,” Jensen added.

Advertisement

Whether it is for the entertainment, the variety or to watch homegrown players on the sport’s biggest stage, increasingly more Germans are booking out their Sunday evenings.

(Top photos: Getty Images; design: Meech Robinson)

Continue Reading

Culture

College football Week 11 oddly specific predictions: Down go the Hoosiers!

Published

on

College football Week 11 oddly specific predictions: Down go the Hoosiers!

Picking Penn State to lose to Ohio State does not deserve a victory lap. Losing big games is what the Nittany Lions do.

Like James Franklin, I deserved to get booed off the field last week after posting an embarrassing 4-5 record picking up straight-up winners. My 59-31 overall record for the season feels especially hollow when I’ve missed on four consecutive upset alerts to fall to 3-6 when sounding the alarm.

We’ll get to my hits and misses below, but first, here are this week’s picks. There are only two Top 25 matchups, but plenty of other intriguing games as conference races narrow.

Most passing yards

The one prediction I nailed last week was calling for Ole Miss’ Jaxson Dart to lead all FBS passers in yards. This week, the numbers are screaming to go with Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders, one of eight quarterbacks averaging more than 300 passing yards a game.

The Buffaloes are 3.5-point favorites at Texas Tech, which ranks 133rd in passing defense but is coming off its biggest win of the season at Iowa State. Joey McGuire’s team is also 7-2 in November games under his watch. Sanders will throw for 450-plus yards, including 150 to Heisman hopeful Travis Hunter. But Texas Tech wins a high-scoring game on a late interception.

Most rushing yards

Tennessee’s Dylan Sampson is one of only eight running backs averaging more than 120 yards rushing per game. His 19 rushing touchdowns are tied with Iowa’s Kaleb Johnson and Army’s Bryson Daily for second behind Boise State star Ashton Jeanty’s 20.

Advertisement

This week, I’m riding with Sampson to lead all rushers in yards because he’s facing a Mississippi State defense that’s ranked 124th against the run. The seventh-ranked Volunteers are 23.5-point favorites at home and have won their last three games by six, seven and 10 points in comeback fashion. This week, it will be a little easier. Sampson runs for a season-high 200-plus yards and three touchdowns and Tennessee wins by three scores.

Most receiving yards

FIU’s Eric Rivers led all receivers last week with 295 yards and three touchdowns in a win over New Mexico State. This week, I’m going with another receiver from the same area code to rack up the most yards: Miami’s Xavier Restrepo, who became the Hurricanes’ all-time leading receiver in last week’s come-from-behind win over Duke.

Fourth-ranked Miami is an 11.5-point favorite at Georgia Tech, which handed the Canes a devastating loss last season despite a career-high 12 catches from Restrepo. Restrepo gets revenge, connecting with Cam Ward 12 times for 200-plus yards in a 10-point Miami win in Atlanta.

Five big games

No. 3 Georgia (-2.5) at No. 16 Ole Miss

The Bulldogs have won 11 of the last 12 meetings with the Rebels, including last year’s 52-17 thrashing in Athens. Yet, there are reasons why the spread entering this one is less than a field goal: Carson Beck’s 11 interceptions and Ole Miss’ ability to post a gaudy stat line.

Advertisement

Dart’s 515 passing yards and six TDs last week against Arkansas, with a breakout performance from Jordan Watkins, provide more reason for me to stick with my midseason prediction. That is Georgia finishes 10-2, misses the SEC title game and still makes noise in the College Football Playoff. Give me Ole Miss on a late TD pass from Dart.

No. 11 Alabama (-3) at No. 15 LSU

The Crimson Tide are 29-10-2 all-time at Tiger Stadium and 3-1 against Brian Kelly at LSU. Kelly’s one win came the last time the Tide visited Baton Rouge. Both teams are coming off idle weeks, but with different results — Alabama crushed Missouri while LSU folded late at Texas A&M.

So, I’m not going against my midseason script. Alabama will beat LSU to stay on track to make the Playoff and Jalen Milroe will once again carve up the Tigers with his feet as he did a year ago. This time, he’ll run for 150 yards and two scores in a 10-point win.

No. 9 BYU (-5) at Utah

Few envisioned BYU being the top-10 team contending for a conference championship and Playoff berth when these two rivals met. But the Cougars very much deserve credit for where they are with impressive wins against two ranked teams — SMU and Kansas State.

Advertisement

The hard part is trying to determine if the Utes can muster any offense after they’ve averaged only 12.5 points over their recent four-game losing streak. The guess here is they can’t. Utah will be held to under 300 yards for the third time this season and BYU wins by a touchdown.

No. 17 Iowa State (-3) at Kansas

The Big 12 feels a bit disrespected after seeing only one team in the top 16 of the CFP rankings. But Iowa State and Kansas State have no one to blame but themselves following head-scratching losses last weekend.

At the start of the season, Kansas was everyone’s dark horse to win the league, and now Lance Leipold’s team needs to win its last four games to qualify for a bowl. Jalon Daniels has not been good enough to this point and he’s going to struggle against a solid Cyclones defense. Iowa State bounces back and keeps its CFP hopes alive with a seven-point win at Arrowhead Stadium.

No. 25 Army (-5.5) at North Texas

The Black Knights are one of five remaining FBS unbeatens and are outscoring opponents by 26.6 points a game. The problem is six of those seven FBS wins are against teams with losing records. North Texas is by far Army’s toughest opponent yet. The Mean Green have the highest-scoring offense in the American Athletic Conference and lost shootouts at Memphis and Tulane in their previous two games.

Army coach Jeff Monken said Daily, his starting quarterback, could be back after missing the win over Air Force last week. I’m not sure it matters here. North Texas quarterback Chandler Morris puts up huge numbers every week and he will do so again (350-plus passing yards, three TDs) in an upset win.

Advertisement

Upset alert

Michigan at No. 8 Indiana (-14.5)

Indiana’s strength of schedule (82nd according to The Athletic’s Austin Mock) is why the undefeated Hoosiers were No. 8 in the first installment of the CFP rankings. They have two wins over P4 teams with winning records: Washington (5-4) and Nebraska (5-4).

You’d have to be a little crazy at this point to think Curt Cignetti’s team isn’t for real considering it is beating FBS opponents by 27.8 points a game. Picking against Indiana here is probably dumb considering Michigan’s offense stinks. But I said at midseason the Hoosiers wouldn’t make the Playoff, and I can’t chicken out now. Colston Loveland is the hero.

Week 10 report card

As mentioned before, my big victory last week was predicting Dart would lead all QBs in passing yards.

My pick to lead all rushers, Daily, was a late scratch from Army’s lineup against Air Force. The Black Knights still won, 20-3, as I said they would. They just didn’t cover the 22.5-point spread.

Outside of picking Ohio State to win, my only other victory was picking Oregon to handle its business and cover a 14.5-spread over Michigan with Dillon Gabriel throwing for more than 250 yards and three touchdowns. Gabriel threw for 294 yards and one touchdown, and the Ducks beat Michigan 38-17.

Advertisement

And now to a string of really bad predictions — and some accountability.

I picked Arizona’s Tetairoa McMillan to lead all receivers in yardage in a Wildcats’ upset over UCF. McMillan finished with six catches for 84 yards and a touchdown, and UCF obliterated Arizona 56-12.

I said Iowa State would score late on a Rocco Becht touchdown to remain unbeaten against Texas Tech. Instead, Tahj Brooks scored with 20 seconds left to rob Becht of his heroics, and the Cyclones lost 23-22.

I had Clemson covering a 10.5-point spread against Louisville with Cade Klubnik (250-plus passing yards, two TDs) and Phil Mafah (100-plus rushing yards, two TDs) doing work. Klubnik threw for 228 yards and a score and Mafah ran for 171 yards and two scores. But Louisville beat Clemson by 12.

I said Marcel Reed’s rushing ability would be the difference in a big road win for Texas A&M at South Carolina. The Gamecocks outscored Texas A&M 24-0 in the second half and rolled to a 44-20 upset.

Advertisement

I said Pitt would pull off a road upset behind its opportunistic defense (three turnovers forced) at SMU. The Mustangs destroyed the Panthers 48-25.

(Photo of Kurtis Rourke: Jordon Kelly / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Continue Reading

Trending