BOSTON — Liam Hendriks had his pants down as he spoke. His undershorts were on, but his uniform was down to his knees. He’d just thrown his first bullpen of the year last Wednesday, a momentous step forward for any pitcher returning from Tommy John surgery. Yet he stood in the Boston Red Sox clubhouse refusing to treat the occasion as serious, or even notable.

How did his arm feel?

“Attached,” he said.

Was there some added adrenaline getting on a mound?

“Not really,” he answered.

What stood out about the rehab process?

“How boring it is,” Hendriks deadpanned.

None of this came across as dismissive. It was played for laughs, a break from the monotony for Hendriks, his teammates, and even the gathered reporters. He was speaking to a full scrum with TV cameras and microphones, all because of a 15-pitch bullpen three hours before game time. Give Hendriks credit for not rolling his eyes. He didn’t travel from Australia, through years of baseball obscurity and rounds of cancer treatment to celebrate a few pregame fastballs in the bullpen.

“I don’t know whether the trainers love me or want to kill me,” Hendriks said. “Every day is a struggle telling them to let me do more and having them try to hold me back into a normal stratosphere.

“Which sucks.”

He’s longing for moments of greater consequence and is confident they’re coming.

There are numbers to help tell every baseball story and Hendriks’ career is told through his three All-Star Games, two Reliever of the Year awards, and 116 career saves. His backstory is chronicled through the 14 teams and six major-league organizations that saw him come and go before anyone trusted him with the ninth inning. He’s the one and only graduate of Australia’s Sacred Heart College to ever play in the majors, and he was designated for assignment four times and traded three more before most people had ever heard of him. Yet, here he is, a survivor in more ways than one.

Hendriks’ past 20 months have been all about four rounds of chemotherapy, a six-game rehab assignment in the minors weeks later, and his emotional big-league return last May. He had four good outings in June before season-ending Tommy John surgery in August and then entered free agency.

“Theoretically, I’ve got a new elbow,” Hendriks said this spring. “So, I’ve got another 10 (years) in me.”

Now 35 years old, Hendriks is hellbent on proving himself yet again. He signed a two-year deal with the Red Sox, in part, because they promised him two things: They believed he could pitch this season, and they wanted him to spend most of his rehab process with the big-league team. So, that’s what Hendriks has been doing. On the road, at home, throughout spring training. He hasn’t been rehabbing at some fancy, far-flung facility; he’s been throwing on the field, sitting at his corner locker, and making jokes on the bullpen bench. Cancer treatment kept him away from people for far too long last year. But he does not wallow. He does not question.

GO DEEPER

Inside the Red Sox trainer’s room with Lucas Giolito and Liam Hendriks

“I’ve never been a big ‘why me’ person,” Hendriks said. “I think it was inevitable that I was going to have something to do with my elbow. Unfortunately, it was in the same year that I dealt with a lot of other things, but it is what it is. There’s nothing I can do to change it. All I can do is show up to the park every day with a positive attitude and hopefully rub off on some of the younger guys here.”

When Hendriks reported to Red Sox camp, he’d been given a target of 64 mph, as in, a pitcher who typically throws a 95-mph fastball should be throwing roughly 64 mph when he’s seven months out from Tommy John surgery. In his early days of spring training, though — “My surgeon is probably not going to be happy about this,” Hendriks said — he was throwing in the mid-70s.

“Not consistently!” Hendriks clarified. “Consistently low 70s. But it’s still, the jump from where I was the time before that was a little too high. … A couple of times I was a little too strong in the paint. But I prefer to go too far than not do enough.”

Such is the Liam Hendriks Experience. Numbers don’t do justice to what he brings on the mound and off the field. He is a vein-bulging, obscenity-screaming, trash-talking wildman, but also a Lego-building, caregiving, joke-making teddy bear.

Within those extremes, a cancer diagnosis in December of 2022 was a shock. Stage 4 non-Hodgkin lymphoma. Doctors told Hendriks to expect six rounds of chemotherapy. He’s proud of the fact he needed only four. He can’t remember the exact date his last round started, only that it was the Chicago White Sox’s home opener, and he was supposed to be in their bullpen, not in some hospital. He had a bone marrow biopsy at the end of April and began a rehab assignment the first week of May.

His elbow lasted a little more than a month after that.

The truth is, Hendriks knew his elbow was in trouble long before it popped. He’d first learned of a small tear in his UCL in 2008. He’d pitched for more than a decade without snapping it, but as he ramped up in his return following cancer treatment — after a full six months off — he could tell it wasn’t right.

“He didn’t care,” former White Sox teammate and current Red Sox teammate Lucas Giolito said. “A lot of guys would be like, ‘Oh, this hurts,’ and in the training room or whatever. He was like, ‘I’m just going to go until it breaks.’”

Was there ever any thought of protecting it after going through so much to get back on the mound and a club option looming?

“No. F— no,” Hendriks said. “I don’t baby it.”

Hendriks said he’s come to believe he’s most susceptible to injury when he holds back.

“The elbow was gone no matter what,” he said. “So, I’m not sitting there to try to rehab another six weeks potentially and not come back. If it goes, it goes. If it doesn’t, it doesn’t. I was pretty sure it was already done, but I was holding out hope that it was maybe a little (bit) of scar tissue, and if that snaps off at the right time, I’ll be fine. It wasn’t that.”

This offseason, the White Sox declined a $15 million club option, making Hendriks a free agent. It’s not unusual for pitchers recovering from Tommy John surgery to sign two-year deals with an eye toward truly contributing in that second year. When Hendriks talked to interested teams this winter, though, he clarified that it wasn’t a 2025 negotiation.

“We made it very abundantly clear that if you’re coming in with that attitude, it’s a no-go,” Hendriks said. “There were some teams that reached out and just faded away straight from there.”

Hendriks expects to be pitching for the Red Sox this August. He signed a two-year deal that guarantees him $10 million but includes a $12 million mutual option for 2026. By the time he signed, Hendriks had begun playing catch with his physical therapist, and Hendriks said he was less worried about his elbow and more worried about spiking a throw to a non-baseball player. But Hendriks hit his partner in the chest, and the instant feedback was that Hendriks wasn’t “muscly,” meaning he was staying loose and not getting tense. The motion was as natural as ever.

When Hendriks talks about limits, he talks only about breaking them. From Australia to the All-Star Game. From being on waivers to signing long-term contracts. From Stage 4 cancer to a faster-than-expected recovery. From Tommy John surgery to having too much oomph on his fastball in spring training. Now a 15-pitch bullpen and a tongue-in-cheek miniature press conference.

Does the light at the end of a Tommy John tunnel look different than the light at the end of a cancer tunnel?

“Ehh, in my mind, it’s the same,” Hendriks said in spring training. “There’s still an end goal. There’s still a goal that I need to get back from. It’s just a little bit more of a slow-moving process.”

Hendriks doesn’t have a sit-back-and-wait personality, and he’s had to do exactly that for much of the past year and a half. He’s wired to pitch the ninth. Check with him again when that finally happens.

“It’s not that (rehab) is long. I can handle long,” Hendriks said. “I can’t handle slow. And it’s the slowness that’s really pissing me off.”

(Top photo of Hendriks in May 2024: Maddie Malhotra / Boston Red Sox/Getty Images)

For a second, Cristiano Ronaldo looked like he might be on the edge of tears. Then suddenly, no, he was over the edge. The floodgates had opened and he was bawling now. In front of a capacity crowd in Frankfurt and a huge global television audience, arguably the most famous athlete on the planet was in floods of tears.

And there was still a game to be won, a place in the Euro 2024 quarter-finals to be secured.

It was astonishing to witness. The Portugal captain had endured another frustrating evening, still chasing his first goal of the tournament, and now, having been given the chance to break Slovenia’s resistance, he had seen a penalty saved brilliantly by goalkeeper Jan Oblak. The tension and anguish that had been building inside him suddenly boiled over.

Ronaldo had missed penalties before, sometimes in highly pressurised circumstances. He had cried on the pitch before: tears of sadness, tears of joy. But this was different because the game wasn’t finished. At 39, playing in what he admits will be his final European Championship, he was crying not for a lost match but, it seemed, for the waning of his powers. They resembled the tears of a matinee idol who realises he is facing his final curtain.

For once he looked so vulnerable, so fallible, so… human. As Portugal’s players formed a huddle during half-time in extra time, they looked up and saw what looked like a broken man. One by one, they tried to raise him. His former Manchester United team-mates Bruno Fernandes and Diogo Dalot grabbed him, as if to remind him who he was — who he still is. Fulham midfielder Joao Palhinha and Manchester City defender Ruben Dias did similar.

It was remarkable that Portugal coach Roberto Martinez kept him out there in the circumstances. Ronaldo looked done. He barely touched the ball for the remainder of extra time as Slovenia, for the first time all evening, began to look the more likely to snatch victory.

It went down to a penalty shootout. What if Ronaldo missed again?

He didn’t. This time, he slammed his shot to the other side, Oblak’s right, and looked immensely relieved when the net bulged. That took courage, but there was no bravado in his reaction. It wasn’t the time for his trademark celebration. Instead, his clasped his hands to the Portugal supporters in apology.

Within three minutes, Portugal’s players and supporters were celebrating victory. Their goalkeeper Diogo Costa was the hero, saving all three of Slovenia’s kicks while Ronaldo, Bruno Fernandes and Bernardo Silva converted theirs. It was an extraordinary performance from Costa, who had also made a vital save to deny Slovenia forward Benjamin Sesko late in extra time. Ronaldo, overcome with relief, embraced and thanked him.

“There was initial sadness — and joy at the end,” the five-time Ballon d’Or winner told Portuguese TV station RTP afterwards. “That’s what football brings: inexplicable moments from the eighth (minute) to the 80th. That’s what happened today. Did I have the opportunity to give the team the lead? I couldn’t do it.”

Ronaldo apologetically celebrates scoring in the shootout (Justin Setterfield/Getty Images)

He referred to his penalty record over the course of the season — “I didn’t fail once” — but he must know deep down that it is more than his penalty-taking that is under scrutiny at Euro 2024. Excluding the penalty shootout (as the record books always do), he is yet to score in his four appearances at the tournament. Other than a penalty against Ghana in Portugal’s opening game of the 2022 World Cup, he has now gone eight appearances without scoring in a major tournament.

Ronaldo scored 50 goals in 51 appearances in all competitions for Al Nassr last season. He has also scored 10 goals in nine appearances in the Euro 2024 qualifying campaign, but half of those came against Luxembourg and Liechtenstein. He is the record international goalscorer in men’s football, with a faintly preposterous record of 130 goals in 211 appearances — but the highest-ranked teams he has scored against in the past three years are Switzerland (19th), Qatar (35th), Slovakia (45th) and the Republic of Ireland (60th).

Yet he takes so many shots. So many shots — a total of 20 so far at this tournament, which is at least seven more than any other player. So many promising attacks and dangerous free kicks are sacrificed at the altar of self-indulgence. There was one free kick against Slovenia where, even in a stadium full of die-hard Ronaldo fans, he must have been the only person who thought he was going to score. Sure enough, his shot sailed way beyond the far post.

Then there are the shots he isn’t able to take because, as formidable as his physique might still appear, his acceleration, speed and power are no longer quite what they were. There was a point in the first half where Bernardo Silva drifted infield from the right wing and produced what looked the most delightful cross towards him at the far post. Ronaldo leapt but couldn’t reach it and, not for the first time at this tournament, you were left thinking he would have buried a chance like that in his prime.

But his prime was a long time ago now. Longer ago than he perhaps cares to imagine. He won the last of his Ballons d’Or in 2017 and, even by that stage, aged 32, he had become a far more economical player than the unstoppable, irrepressible force of his mid-to-late 20s.

Ronaldo beats Jan Oblak from the spot in the shootout (Harriet Lander – UEFA/UEFA via Getty Images)

Some will suggest this is a tournament too far for him, but similar was said at the World Cup in Qatar 18 months ago, where he made little impact and ended up losing his place to Goncalo Ramos. It now feels like two tournaments too far — or two tournaments in which Ronaldo might be better utilised as an option, perhaps coming off the bench at times, trading places with Ramos or Diogo Jota, rather than as the fixed point around which all else must revolve.

It was almost surprising to hear Ronaldo describe this, in the post-match mixed zone, as his last European Championship. “But I’m not emotional about that,” he said. “I’m moved by all that football means — by the enthusiasm I have for the game, the enthusiasm for seeing my supporters, my family, the affection people have for me.

“It’s not about leaving the world of football. What else is there for me to do or win? It’s not going to come down to one point more or one point less. Making people happy is what motivates me the most.”

What else is there for him to do or win? That didn’t sound like Ronaldo, particularly given the scenes we had witnessed earlier in the evening. He is right, of course — his legacy and place among the game’s immortals was secured long ago — but his reaction to that missed penalty was not that of someone who feels immune to the pressures of proving himself over and over and over again.

“He’s an example for us,” Martinez said afterwards. “Those emotions (after missing the penalty) were incredible. He doesn’t need to care that much after the career he has had and everything he has achieved. After missing the penalty, he was the first penalty-taker (in the shootout). I was certain he had to be first and show us the way to victory. The way he reacted is an example and we’re very proud.”

Lovely words, but Martinez has a big decision to make before Portugal’s quarter-final against France in Hamburg on Friday.

There have been many times over the years when Ronaldo has been the player to drag a team back from the brink, but on Monday night he looked beaten not just by Oblak’s penalty save but by the one opponent that catches up with every athlete in the end: time.

GO DEEPER

The cult of Cristiano Ronaldo

(Top photo: Alex Grimm/Getty Images)

There has been much discourse since the latest round of realignment and media deals that every team in the ACC and the Big 12 should want to be in the Big Ten or SEC, because those conferences make the most money. But the fans themselves aren’t seeing a dime of it. Their lone concern is whether their team wins on Saturday — and more money hardly guarantees more victories.

With college football undergoing a massive facelift in 2024 — bigger conferences, an expanded College Football Playoff — every fan base in the country should be asking just one question: Is any of this going to help us win games?

For example: Oklahoma will make a lot more money in the SEC than it would have in the Big 12. But it also faces a much tougher path to a national championship, whereas Kansas State’s chances of reaching the CFP have increased due to the Big 12’s bigger field and the loss of Oklahoma and Texas.

So what about your school? Does its chances of success increase, decrease or remain the same in the sport’s new world order?

To assess, I’ve given all 67 power-conference schools a score between minus-5 and positive-5. The score is solely about a team’s ability to win, and does not take into account the team’s current coaching staff or roster. Scoring a 0 means the school is neither better nor worse off. A score from 1 to 5 ranges from mildly better to far better, and -1 to -5 ranges from mildly worse to … uh oh.

ACC

SMU: +5

Has there been a bigger realignment winner in the last 30 years? SMU had not finished in the Top 25 in four decades at the time it got the call up to the big leagues last September. Now it comes in with momentum after finishing last season No. 22.

Clemson: +3

Dabo Swinney’s 2015-2020 teams had to be near-perfect to reach the four-team CFP; his 11-2 ACC title squad in 2022 would have earned a top-4 seed. His aloof portal approach doesn’t help his cause, but it doesn’t factor into this score.

Florida State: +3

The irony of FSU trying to sue its way out of the ACC is that the new system works in its favor. Would it rather be the best team in the ACC and earn a top-4 seed and a first-round bye, or the fourth-best team in the SEC and live on the bubble?

Louisville: +2

Louisville has upside. The school has the resources and recruiting footprint to be a regular ACC and CFP contender, and it helps that Louisville is no longer trapped in a division with Florida State (which it does not play this season) and Clemson.

Miami: +2

The U has been stuck in the mud for two decades, but it began flexing its muscle as soon as NIL went into effect in 2021. The program has most of the elements needed to be a 12-team CFP regular, provided the right coach is in place.

Virginia Tech: +2

The Hokies would have made a 12-team CFP nine times in a 16-year span (1995-2010) under Frank Beamer. They may never replicate that level of consistency, but there’s no reason they can’t become a semi-regular contender again.

NC State: +1

The Wolfpack have not won a conference title since 1979. That might be a tad more attainable now that they’re no longer in the same division as Florida State and Clemson. (At least elsewhere, Wolfpack vibes are high.)

Georgia Tech: 0

Recruiting has always been challenging for the Yellow Jackets, made even more so now by NIL. But based on its history, Georgia Tech could make an occasional CFP appearance. It would have gone in 1990, 1998 and 2009, and would have been the first team out in 2014.

North Carolina: 0

This unquestioned basketball school has been long considered a sleeping giant in football but has yet to wake up. If it finally does, it will more likely be due to an inspired head-coaching hire than the various changes to the sport.

Pittsburgh: -2

Pitt is nearly 50 years removed from its national heyday, but it did win the ACC in 2021, which would have garnered a 12-team berth. But star receiver Jordan Addison’s jump to USC the following spring was a window into new NIL reality.

Syracuse: -2

It’s early, but new coach Fran Brown has discovered there’s money in the banana stand. Landing Ohio State QB Kyle McCord raised eyebrows. More broadly, though, it’s hard to argue the new landscape does much to benefit the Orange.

Virginia: -2

Arguably the one thing UVA had going for it was the mediocrity of the ACC Coastal Division, which it won in 2019 while going 9-3. Now, the Cavaliers — who last finished in the Top 25 back two decades ago — risk falling into deep irrelevance moving forward.

Wake Forest: -2

The tiniest school in Power 4 has more donor support than one might assume, and it’s not a championship-or-bust fan base. But reaching a 12-team CFP could be largely unattainable. Will programs like this be able to sustain interest?

Boston College: -3

BC is the type of school that suffers in a world of roster-poaching and NIL deals. Success will also be increasingly defined by Playoff appearances, and the Eagles have finished in the top 12 only twice since World War II.

Duke: -3

Duke just lived through the downside of its new reality. It lost coach Mike Elko to an SEC school after just two seasons and quarterback Riley Leonard went to Notre Dame, likely for a seven-figure NIL deal.

Stanford: -4

The Cardinal will always attract recruits that covet that degree. But the school’s admissions process limits it to taking only a few transfers a year, which creates a big disadvantage in the new landscape. And like Cal, the ACC is not ideal.

Cal: -5

Serious question: Would Cal have been better off getting Washington State/Oregon State’d? An already lagging program must now compete in a far-away Power 4 conference while receiving 30 percent of its money (and without SMU’s boosters).

Big Ten

Ohio State: +4

Only once in the past 19 seasons have the Buckeyes lost more than two regular-season games. That means they would have made a 12-team Playoff all but once in the past 19 seasons. And probably pulled off an extra national title or two.

Michigan: +3

For the most part, Michigan will still be Michigan. The Big House will still pack in 110,000. The season will still be defined by whether it beats Ohio State. But a 12-team Playoff field certainly doesn’t hurt.

Penn State: +3

Had the 12-team Playoff been in place all along, James Franklin would have made five appearances in his first 10 seasons. The format is ideal for programs like PSU: not quite “elite,” but has the resources to compete nationally.

Michigan State: +2

While the Spartans only made the four-team CFP once, they could have made a 12-team field as many as five times from 2011-21. They also get Ohio State off the books in 2025 and 2026 after having played the Buckeyes in 14 consecutive seasons.

Oregon: +2

The Ducks are the best-positioned of the four West Coast schools joining the Big Ten. They recruit nationally and have Phil Knight’s war chest. While national titles have remained elusive, regular CFP appearances are realistic.

Maryland: +1

The Terps are free! They are no longer stuck in the Big Ten East, where their ceiling would forever be 7-5 and fourth place out of seven. But the upside may be limited until the school’s donors make a bigger splash in the NIL world.

Rutgers: +1

Like “rival” Maryland, Rutgers is finally out from under the Big Ten East. It’s also doing surprisingly well in NIL. The program’s ceiling may still be limited to 8-4 or so, but that would still be much better than its first decade in the conference.

Nebraska: 0

It may be tougher for the Cornhuskers to contend for Big Ten championships in a bigger league. But right now, that’s not even the target, given they haven’t even reached a bowl game in eight years. How much worse can it get?

Wisconsin: -1

The program has long churned out double-digit wins by “holding serve” against most of the conference while occasionally punching up against Ohio State or Michigan. That could become harder with the arrival of USC, Oregon and Washington.

Illinois: -2

This program has struggled to find its footing for more than two decades, and nothing about this new world helps it. If anything, it will be tougher. Right out of the gate, the Illini face Penn State, Michigan and Oregon this season.

Indiana: -2

The good news: no more getting clobbered by Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State in the Big Ten East. The bad news: Indiana, long known for apathy in football, is not likely to be as flush in NIL money as most of its competitors.

USC: -2

While it didn’t play like one for most of the past 15 years, USC was the most prestigious program in its former conference. In the Big Ten, it will be, at best, the third banana to Ohio State and Michigan, and possibly fifth behind Penn State and Oregon.

Washington: -2

The Huskies were the class of the Pac-12 the last two seasons, but it helped not to have an Ohio State or Michigan in their league. Now they have both, plus USC, Oregon and Penn State. Will the brief Kalen DeBoer era go down as an outlier?

Minnesota: -3

It’s unfortunate for the Golden Gophers that they have yet to reach the Big Ten Championship Game, because now it may never happen. A Playoff berth is not impossible, but Minnesota has had one top-10 season in the past 60 years.

Northwestern: -3

The new world may not be kind to overachiever programs like Northwestern. While it regularly makes bowl games and posts occasional Top 25 seasons, it has not finished high enough to make a 12-team CFP since 1996.

Purdue: -3

Not likely to contend for Playoff berths whether the field is four or 12. Purdue’s goal is to get to bowl games, and reaching six wins becomes harder without the benefit of a Big Ten West schedule.

Iowa: -4

The Hawkeyes have made a living out of grinding out mediocre Big Ten West foes while losing 42-3 to Michigan or 54-10 to Ohio State. In an 18-team league with no more unbalanced divisions and three incoming Top-25 recruiting schools, Iowa could be in for a reckoning.

UCLA: -4

Almost nothing about the new world does the Bruins any favors. UCLA is a basketball school whose donors have done little to support football’s NIL efforts. It is joining a conference full of big brands and football-first fan bases. Not a recipe for success.

GO DEEPER

Maryland in the Big Ten: From ‘what are we doing?’ to ‘amazing decision’

Big 12

BYU: +5

The Cougars have finally climbed the mountaintop after spending their entire history either in a non-power conference or as an independent. They now have direct access to the CFP, and won’t finish ranked 16th with just one loss, as happened in 2020.

Cincinnati: +4

The Bearcats’ dream season in 2021 does not have to be an aberration going forward, as they won’t have to go undefeated to make the Playoff. And power-conference status should help them land more recruits in their fertile city and state.

Houston: +4

After nearly 30 years in the post-Southwest Conference wilderness, the Cougars are back in a major conference alongside old rivals Baylor, Texas Tech and TCU. But achieving consistent success in the Big 12 is hardly a given after up-and-downs in the AAC.

UCF: +4

Like BYU, Cincinnati and Houston, UCF got its Power 4 life raft, and it’s not like the Knights were struggling beforehand. They’ve reached three BCS/CFP bowl games since 2013. The only question is how they’ll fare as a geographic outlier in the new Big 12.

Baylor: +2

Since 2013, the Bears have won three Big 12 titles and reached four BCS bowls but have fallen short of reaching the CFP. In a 12-team field, all of those teams would make it. And that was with Texas and Oklahoma in the conference.

Kansas State: +2

K-State could thrive in the new world. It would have made the 12-team CFP four times since 2011. It has sneaky-good NIL support. The biggest challenge will be revenue-sharing. Only three public Power 5 schools made less in 2022.

Oklahoma State: +2

Mike Gundy has fielded eight double-digit win teams, all of which would have been 12-team CFP contenders. Most of those teams lost to Oklahoma, against which Gundy is 4-15. The Cowboys no longer have to deal with the Sooners.

TCU: +2

The Frogs would have made a 12-team field three times since 2014, and, thanks to the Metroplex, they have the highest recruiting ceiling among the holdovers.

Colorado: +1

Anything would be better than the Buffs’ abysmal 13-year tenure in the Pac-12. The Buffs get back into the Texas footprint, which they benefitted from in the old Big 12. But the school still faces an uphill climb in the NIL world, with or without Deion Sanders.

Texas Tech: +1

The Red Raiders have largely flailed since the late Mike Leach’s 2009 ouster, but it’s not for lack of resources and fan support. Getting out from under Texas could help, and while CFP berths might be infrequent, they’re attainable.

Iowa State: 0

The Cyclones, who have not won a conference championship since 1912, will still have all the same evergreen challenges. They could benefit from a more level version of the Big 12, but they’ll still have to perpetually overachieve.

Kansas: 0

The same Iowa State blurb can be applied to Kansas, which has finished ranked roughly once per decade. An expanded Playoff gives the Jayhawks slightly more hope for glory, but 2007 seasons may remain incredibly rare.

Utah: -1

Utah enters its new league as strong as any of its programs, but man, did the Utes have a good thing going in the Pac-12. Not only did they reach four league title games in five years, but they could lord their Power 5 membership over rival BYU. No more.

West Virginia: -1

The Mountaineers have lost a great deal of their identity since leaving the old Big East for the Big 12 in 2012, and the further dilution of the conference won’t help. But they did at least gain their first geographic partner when Cincinnati joined.

Arizona: -2

Joining the Big 12 was great for Arizona basketball. Probably not so much for football, where it has little in common with schools in football-crazed Texas. History suggests the Wildcats will rarely contend for a spot in the Playoff.

Arizona State: -3

ASU president Michael Crow had to be dragged kicking and screaming into the Big 12. The pro-market school has little in common with the likes of Texas Tech and Oklahoma State, which, unlike the Sun Devils, have rabid fan bases.

GO DEEPER

Welcome to the new Big 12: Featuring Deion, parity, shifts in playing styles

SEC

Alabama: +4

I don’t expect post-Nick Saban Alabama to make a 12-team CFP nearly every single year, like I do Ohio State, simply because of the depth of the SEC. But it’s still one of a small handful of programs built to succeed in any era.

Georgia: +4

Now, even Georgia’s “down” seasons might still end in CFP berths. Kirby Smart would currently have seven straight, up from three in eight seasons. Between Smart and Mark Richt, the Bulldogs would have 13 since 2001.

LSU: +3

The Tigers have won three national championships this century, but they might have played for even more were there a 12-team field. They would have made nine by now. Of course, they may also fire coaches more frequently for missing the Playoff.

Texas: +3

Unlike rival Oklahoma, Texas has won just three conference titles this century, so that shouldn’t be the measuring stick. But Mack Brown showed what the ceiling can be. He would have reached eight 12-team CFPs in a decade.

Florida: +2

Florida must play Georgia every year while mixing in Texas and Oklahoma. But a 12-team Playoff could prove a godsend; the Gators would have made the postseason three consecutive times under Dan Mullen and 10 times since 2000.

Ole Miss: +2

Ole Miss has not won the SEC since 1963. Oklahoma and Texas won’t make it any easier. But the program can make the 12-team CFP, and its NIL collective has become one of the models in the sport.

Tennessee: 0

The Vols are still playing rivals Alabama, Florida and Georgia for the next two seasons while adding Oklahoma. That’s rough. But Tennessee’s collective is strong, and it has the resources and recruiting cachet to reach occasional CFPs.

Auburn: -1

A drawing of the history of Auburn football arcs like a roller coaster, with brief spurs of national supremacy mixed in between long stretches of middle-of-the-pack. And the league just added two more above-the-middle historical programs.

Missouri: -1

Missouri would have reached 12-team fields in 2007, 2013 and 2023. That development is good. But the Tigers have benefitted at times from being in the SEC’s easier division, which is now gone, and they are .250 all-time against Oklahoma and Texas.

Arkansas: -2

On the bright side, Arkansas gets old rival Texas back. On the downside, the Razorbacks have yet to win the SEC in its 32 years of membership, and it’s not getting easier. They would have reached a 12-team CFP three times in those 32 years.

Texas A&M: -2

The best thing the Aggies had going for them in the SEC was that Texas wasn’t in it. Alas. The return of annual matchups with the Longhorns should be fantastic for entertainment purposes but could make for a tougher schedule.

Kentucky: -3

Mark Stoops is on track to have a statue sculpted for taking the Wildcats to eight straight bowl games, but those Gator and Music City bowls might not feel as significant in the new world. They also may become harder to reach with no SEC East.

Mississippi State: -3

The Bulldogs have finished above .500 in SEC play this century just once, in 2014 with Dak Prescott. The SEC getting bigger, and possibly moving to nine conference games, is likely to be unkind for State.

Oklahoma: -3

From 1938-2021, the Sooners claimed a Big 8/Big 12 championship in 47 of those 83 seasons. No major program in the country has more league titles. Realistically, OU will not come close to enjoying that level of dominance in the SEC.

South Carolina: -3

Save for that one three-year peak under Steve Spurrier from 2011-13, the Gamecocks have rarely lived in the top half of the SEC. Now they’re losing the SEC East. It will become even more difficult to maintain relevance.

Vanderbilt: -4

Vanderbilt was already stuck playing the worst cards in the SEC deck. Now there’s a whole new set of challenges stacked against their deck: the bigger SEC, the importance of NIL and roster poaching from the portal.

The rest

Notre Dame: +2

Some might fixate on the fact that the independent Fighting Irish can never get a first-round bye in the new system, but that misses the larger point: They could reach many more CFPs. They would have made five in Brian Kelly’s 12 seasons.

Oregon State and Washington State: -5

There’s no sugarcoating it: Two historic Power 5 programs have been relegated to de facto Group of 5 status, playing de facto Mountain West schedules. And unlike actual G5 schools, they have no guaranteed access to the Playoff.

All Group of 5 programs: -3

For the first time in history, one of these schools is guaranteed to compete for a national championship every year. But that does not offset the further irrelevance — nor the pain of Power 4 schools poaching all of their best players.

Bigger takeaways

1. As usual, the biggest changes to the sport almost always mostly benefit the “big boys” the most. Outside of the former G5 programs moving up, the biggest beneficiaries are the Alabamas, Georgias and Ohio States of the sport. There are, however, a few exceptions: Oklahoma and USC fall into the “be careful what you wish for” category.
2. And while the Big 12 is currently scrounging for any additional penny it can raise, no conference had a higher percentage of on-field gainers. That’s because Playoff berths are now attainable for the likes of Oklahoma State, Kansas State and TCU.
3. Only two of the former Pac-12 schools (Oregon and Colorado) got a positive score, as most are entering their new conferences begrudgingly. It will never not be stupefying to think about how Pac-12 leadership screwed it up so badly.

(Top illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; Photos: Sam Wasson, Kevin C. Cox, Scott Taetsch, Brett Deering / Getty)