Connect with us

Culture

How do you know if a football manager is actually good at their job?

Published

on

How do you know if a football manager is actually good at their job?

An important thing to remember about Andre Villas-Boas is that he had ridiculously good hair.

You don’t spend a record-shattering €15 million (£12.9; $16.3m) fee to sign a rookie manager away from Porto unless you’re pretty sure you know what you’re getting, and one thing Chelsea knew for certain, back in the heady days of 2011, was that the man with a swirling, fox-red side-parting looked impossibly cool getting tossed in the air during trophy celebrations.


Villas-Boas at Porto in 2010 (Dimitar Dilkoff/AFP via Getty Images)

Hair like that had sexy new ideas — a philosophy, perhaps. It had the sort of rakish sweep that could command a press conference, smouldering volcanically above the jagged peaks of an unbuttoned collar. But when the 33-year-old prodigy conducted his first interview as the world’s most expensive manager, all of the glamour quickly drained away.

“Don’t expect something,” Villas-Boas warned gently, “from one man.”

True to his word, he was sacked by March.

Advertisement

Villas-Boas to Chelsea might have gone down as a historic blunder if not for all the other managers teams have squandered transfer fees on in the last few years alone: Marco Rose to Borussia Dortmund (€5 million up front for one lacklustre season); Adi Hutter to Borussia Monchengladbach (€7.5 million, ditto); Julian Nagelsmann to Bayern Munich (€25 million for 19 months); Graham Potter to Chelsea (let’s not talk about it). These were the cream of the crop, the head coaches clubs couldn’t afford to wait around for, yet in their new jobs they had the shelf life of a bunch of bruised bananas.

How do we know if a manager is good? The question sounds almost too obvious to ask — anyone down the pub will be happy to explain it to you loudly over a pint — but professional organisations with millions at stake whiff on it every year. Apparently the answer isn’t great hair. It can’t be trophies, either, since those are pretty much only available to managers already at top clubs. If the study of up-and-coming coaches can be called a science, it remains a largely theoretical one.

“We’ve done work with football clubs and leagues, actually, around what predicts head coach success and it’s very, very hard,” says Omar Chaudhuri of the sports consultancy 21st Group. “There are very few strong predictors.”

Everyone loves a winner, so it makes sense that employers would start by looking for coaching talent toward the top of the table. But we also know that in the grossly unequal world of European football, wage bills are destiny for most teams, no matter who’s in the technical area. The managers we admire most are the ones who find a way to punch above their weight.

To pick out those overachievers, we can start by modelling the relationship between squad strength and success using crowdsourced “market values” from Transfermarkt, which are a decent proxy for player quality when you don’t have wages handy. We’ll average this season’s values with last season’s, where available, to give coaches some credit for player development, then weight the values by minutes played to account for absences.

Advertisement

For the performance side, we’ll use a 70/30 blend of non-penalty expected goal difference and actual goal difference, which captures team strength pretty well and puts more emphasis on the parts of the game coaches are likely to have some influence over (creating and denying chances) than the parts they probably don’t (finishing, saving shots, successfully lobbying for penalties by doing the VAR rectangle thing with their fingers).

The results are striking. Over the last seven seasons across Europe’s top leagues, our simple player quality model can explain around 80 per cent of teams’ success.

But what about the remaining 20 per cent — who should get credit for that?

When we look at the outliers on the chart above, it seems fair to say that Gian Piero Gasperini’s freewheeling style helped elevate Atalanta’s mid-budget squad into a Champions League contender a few years back, and the whole platoon of head coaches and interim guys who oversaw Schalke’s disastrous 2020-21 campaign probably weren’t so hot at their job. Maybe performance over squad value is a fair measure of what a manager brings to the table.

Reassuringly, this season’s list of top teams for adjusted goal difference over expected is a veritable who’s who of coaching legends and the game’s hottest up-and-coming managers.

Advertisement

Xabi Alonso has turned down overtures from Bayern Munich and Liverpool to stay at German champs-in-waiting Bayer Leverkusen, while Brighton’s Roberto De Zerbi, whom no less an authority than Pep Guardiola called “one of the most influential managers of the last 20 years,” remains a strong contender for both jobs.

In Catalonia, Barcelona have been making eyes at Girona’s Michel. Sebastian Hoeness, Paulo Fonseca, Thiago Motta and Will Still have flocks of admirers, and maybe we should all be paying more attention to whatever Eric Roy’s got cooking at Brest.

So is that it — have we cracked the not-so-secret formula to finding Europe’s next top manager?

Well, hang on a second.

One important trait for a good sports stat is stability, or how much it varies from season to season. If last year’s performance can’t predict next year’s because the number is too sensitive to context, you probably don’t want to make it the sole basis for any expensive hiring decisions.

Advertisement

By that standard, our manager metric is a bust. For head coaches who change jobs, there’s no correlation whatsoever between the previous year’s performance above or below expectations at their old club and their first season at their new club. Even though goal difference added seemed pretty good at identifying this season’s hottest managers, it has zero predictive value for new hires.

When Chelsea spent £21.5 million to sign Graham Potter, he was coming off one of the best runs by any head coach in the last seven years: in 2020-21 and 2021-22, Brighton finished 22 and 13 adjusted goals better than expected. His seven months in London went, er, not quite as well.

Brighton, meanwhile, signed Roberto De Zerbi even though his final season at Sassuolo had been about average compared to their squad value. He’d had a pretty good season the year before that, and a respectable stint outside the top five leagues at Shakhtar Donetsk in between, but nothing that might have hinted that his first season at Brighton would be the fourth-best out of hundreds in our dataset.

What can explain the difference between these two very different hiring stories? Maybe there’s a clue in how Brighton’s famously analytical owner Tony Bloom explained his process. “I am confident,” he said of the De Zerbi hire, “his style and tactical approach will suit our existing squad superbly.”


De Zerbi (facing camera) and Potter in 2022 (Bryn Lennon/Getty Images)

Smart clubs don’t just hire successful managers in hopes that they possess some innate knowledge of how to win. They’re careful to match a coach’s tactics to the players they already have, knowing that changing styles will cost them money and time.

Advertisement

“I don’t want to have to replace 15 players or something like that over two years,” says one veteran analytics consultant, who requested anonymity to protect client relationships. “Because then it becomes a project of just kind of cycling through players and hoping things work out.”

Not every club is as careful about this step as Brighton. Chaudhuri explains that searches often start with a “performance piece” to determine whether managers are making the most of their current squad, but “then you have a playing style piece, which clubs generally tend to be quite vague on how they want to play. They say, ‘We want games to be attractive and exciting,’ whatever that means. And then you go, ‘Okay, tell us what you think that looks like.’”

The other consultant agrees. “I had this meeting yesterday, I gave five candidates, like, ‘What do you think of these five?’” he says. “And he was like, ‘Well, I like these four.’ But I said, ‘One of these four is actually not the style you said you want.’”

Figuring out which managers have exceeded expectations is the easy part. You can watch their players flinging them into the air at a trophy celebration and envision your club doing the same next season. But success, on its own, is fickle. It also tends to be expensive. The right question isn’t “How do we know if a manager is good?” but “How do we know if a manager will be good for this group of players?”

The secret ingredient in hiring the right coach is style — and not just the kind that comes with really good hair.

Advertisement

(Header photo: Lars Baron/Getty Images)


The Athletic recently profiled six of European football’s most innovative up-and-coming managers.

Advertisement

Culture

Closed-Door Romance Books That Will Make You Swoon

Published

on

Closed-Door Romance Books That Will Make You Swoon

As a lifelong fan of romantic comedies, my list of favorite “sweet” romances is extensive.

Not because I have a spice aversion — but because the rom-coms I love most, with that classic cinematic vibe, often come with fewer peppers on the spice scale.

Some people refer to these books as “closed door.” I prefer to think of them as “in the hall” romances (though that admittedly doesn’t roll off the tongue quite the same way). The reader is there for all the swoon, the burn and the banter — but when things head to the bedroom, the reader remains out in the hallway. With less focus on what happens inside the boudoir, all that juicy heightened tension and yearning really shine. Here are a few of my favorites.

Continue Reading

Culture

Book Review: ‘Seek the Traitor’s Son,’ by Veronica Roth

Published

on

Book Review: ‘Seek the Traitor’s Son,’ by Veronica Roth

SEEK THE TRAITOR’S SON, by Veronica Roth


I read Veronica Roth’s new novel for adults, “Seek the Traitor’s Son,” over one weekend and had a hard time putting it down, and not just because I was procrastinating on my house chores.

There’s much about the novel one would expect from Roth, the author of the Divergent series, one of the hottest dystopian young adult series of the 2010s. Thematically, the novels are similar. Like “Divergent,” this new book is also set in an alternate, dystopian version of our world; it is also packed with vivid, present-tense prose full of capitalized labels to let you know that something different is going on; and it also centers on a classic “Chosen One” who is burdened by the mantle of savior she carries.

These are classic tropes, but I, like many other genre fiction fans, enjoy that familiarity. Still, I’m always hoping for a subversion, a tornado twist that sucks me into imagination land.

In “Seek the Traitor’s Son,” our Chosen One is Elegy Ahn, the spare heir of the most powerful woman in Cedre. Elegy likes her life, even if it’s filled with danger. See, some time ago, a virus took over the world. The contagion is strange: Everyone who is infected dies, but 50 percent of the people who die come back to life with mysterious cognitive gifts.

Advertisement

After the outbreak, Earth split into two factions: The dominant Talusar, who worship the Fever, believe it is a divine gift, willingly infect themselves with it and consider anyone who does not submit to it a blasphemer; and Cedre, a small country made up of everyone who rejects the virus and the dogma around it. They are, naturally, at war.

Early in the book, Elegy, solidly on the Cedre side, and Rava Vidar, a brutal Talusar general, are summoned by an order of prophets who tell them: One of you will lead your people to victory over the other, and one of the deciding factors involves an unnamed man whom Elegy is prophesied to fall in love with.

Elegy doesn’t want this. But the prophecy spurs the Talusar into action, and so her mother assigns her a Talusaran refugee as a knight and forces her into the fray as the Hope of Cedre.

If that seems like a lot of setup, don’t worry. That’s just the first few chapters. Besides, if you know those dystopian novel tropes, you’ll get the hang of it. Roth gets through the world exposition quickly, and after a rather jarring time skip, the plot takes off, effectively and entertainingly driving readers to the novel’s exhilarating end.

The strength of “Seek the Traitor’s Son” is Roth’s character work. Elegy is a dynamic heroine. She has a lot to lose, and she leads with love, which is reflected in the intense grief she feels for the people she’s lost in the war and the life the prophecy took from her. It’s love that makes her stop running from her destiny and do what she thinks is right to save the people she has left.

Advertisement

Many authors isolate their characters to back them into bad decisions, so it’s refreshing that Roth has given Elegy a community to support her. Her sister Hela in particular is a treat. She’s refreshingly grounded, and often gives a much needed reprieve from the melodrama of the other characters’ lives. (She has an important subplot that has to do with a glowing alien plant, but the real reason you should pay attention to her is that she’s funny, loves her sister so much, has cool friends and listens to gay romance novels.) Hela and Elegy’s unwavering loyalty to each other casts a positive illumination on both characters.

My favorite character is Theren, Elegy’s knight, who is kind and empathetic to everyone but himself. As the obvious romantic lead, his character most diverges from genre standard because of the nuanced depiction of his trauma. He has been so broken by his experiences that he thinks what he can do with his body is all he can offer, and it’s worth nothing to him.

But like I said, I need subversion, and for all the creative world-building, I didn’t quite get it. The most distinct part of the novel was the setting and structure of alternate Earth, as well as the subcultures born from that setting. But after ripping through the novel, I found that those details didn’t provide nourishment for thought, and the general handwaviness of the technology and history of Earth was distractingly easy to nitpick.

I am a greedy reader, so I want my books to have everything: romance, action, an intellectual theme, novel ideas about the future, and character development. “Seek the Traitor’s Son” comes close. The novel is the first in a series, and I’m willing to hold my reservations until I read the next book. Elegy and Theren are worth it.


SEEK THE TRAITOR’S SON | By Veronica Roth | Tor | 416 pp. | $29

Advertisement
Continue Reading

Culture

Revolution is the Theme at the Firsts London Book Fair

Published

on

Revolution is the Theme at the Firsts London Book Fair

To mark the 250th anniversary of the U.S. Declaration of Independence, “Revolution” is the timely theme of the Firsts London book fair, opening Thursday in the contemporary art spaces of the Saatchi Gallery.

The fair, running Thursday through Sunday, will feature 100 dealers’ booths on three floors of the neoclassical, early 19th-century building in the upscale Chelsea neighborhood and will take place at a moment of geopolitical convulsion, if not revolution. It also coincides with a profound change in reading habits: Fewer people read for pleasure, and when they do, more often it is on a screen. And yet some physical books are fetching record prices.

Why is that? Clues can be found at Firsts London, regarded as Britain’s pre-eminent fair devoted to collectible books, maps, manuscripts and ephemera. Dealers will be responding to the revolution theme by showing a curated selection of items that document political upheavals over the centuries.

While the organizers — members of the nonprofit Antiquarian Bookseller’s Association and the International League of Antiquarian Booksellers — have been eager to expand the theme to include material that throws light on revolutions in other realms such as science and social attitudes, the momentousness of the Declaration’s anniversary has spurred dealers to bring items with ties to 18th-century America.

The New York-based dealer James Cummins Bookseller, for instance, will be offering a 1775 London printing of Congress’s declaration of the “Causes and Necessity of Taking Up Arms” against the British authorities. Mostly written by John Dickinson and Thomas Jefferson and published just a year before the Declaration of Independence, the document represents a decisive moment in the colonies’ struggle for self-determination. It is priced at $22,500.

Advertisement

“We’re generalists. We’re bringing a bit of everything,” said Jeremy Markowitz, a specialist on American books at Cummins. “But this year, because of the anniversary, we’re bringing Americana that we otherwise wouldn’t have brought.”

The London dealer Shapero Rare Books will be showing a letter written in January 1797 by Thomas Paine, one of the most influential Founding Fathers, to his friend Col. John Fellows who had served with the American militia during the Revolutionary War. The text reiterates the views of Paine’s open letter to George Washington, urging him to retire from the presidency, fearing that the office might become hereditary. With an asking price of 95,000 pounds, or about $130,000. Paine’s letter to Fellows was written just weeks before Washington stood down in March at the end of his second term, a practice later enshrined in the 22nd Amendment limiting presidents to two terms.

Bernard Quaritch, another London bookseller, will be exhibiting a first edition in book form of “The Federalist Papers,” the celebrated collection of essays written in favor of the new Constitution by Alexander Hamilton, James Madison and John Jay from 1787-1788. (These texts are mentioned in Lin-Manuel Miranda’s award-winning musical “Hamilton.”) In its original binding, with the pages uncut and largely unopened, this pioneering work of U.S. political philosophy is priced at £220,000.

The fair, like the United States, has gone through its own process of reinvention. It is the sixth annual edition of Firsts London, but its origins stretch from 1958, when its more traditional forerunner, the London International Antiquarian Book Fair, was founded.

The rebranded Firsts London was initially held at an exhibition space in Battersea Park in 2019, then transferred to the Saatchi in 2021. (There is also Firsts New York and Firsts Hong Kong.) Last year the event attracted an estimated 5,000 visitors over its four days, according to the organizers, and notable sales were made.

Advertisement

“Book fairs are now part of the ‘experience culture.’ In an age where everything is available at a click, fairs have to present themselves in a different way,” the exhibitor Daniel Crouch said.

Crouch will be showing two late-18th-century engraved maps printed on paper of New York by Bernard Ratzer, an engineer commissioned by the British to survey the city and its environs in 1766 and 1767 in case it became a battlefield. Ratzer’s large three-sheet map of the southern end of Manhattan and part of New Jersey and Brooklyn is priced at £240,000; his smaller map of south Manhattan at £25,000. Both date from January 1776, just six months before the Declaration of Independence was adopted in Philadelphia on July 4, 1776.

Other revolutions are also represented. The cover design of Millicent Fawcett ’s classic 1920 Suffragists tract, “The Women’s Victory — and After,” from the collection of the Senate House Library at the University of London, is the poster image for the event and the library is lending the entire pamphlet for display at the fair.

Scientific revolutions are represented by items like a 1976 first edition of Richard Dawkins’s book “The Selfish Gene,” offered at £2,250 by Ashton Rare Books of Market Harborough in Leicestershire, England. Fold the Corner Books in Surrey is offering a handwritten letter by an anonymous British spy describing scenes in Paris in 1791 during the French Revolution, and the dealers at Peter Harrington are bringing a Chinese parade banner from the Cultural Revolution. The banner and the letter are each priced at £750.

While the U.S. document’s anniversary has spurred many exhibitors to show rare 18th-century American items, the organizers stressed the fair’s wider remit.

Advertisement

“We wanted to do something related to our cousins over the water, but something a bit broader than just the American Revolution,” said Tom Lintern-Mole, the chairman of this year’s London fair.

“Revolution is a concept,” he said. “It encompasses everything to do with our world. Printing itself was a revolution. It helps foment revolutions. We like to think that books make history, as well as being artifacts of it.”

In terms of making sales, science fiction and science and fantasy are genres that many traders see as the key growth areas, because of, in great part, recent Hollywood adaptations. “Affluent younger collectors are moving the needle in the market,” said Pom Harrington, owner of Peter Harrington.

Cummins is offering a 1965 first edition of “Dune” for $16,500, while the London-based Foster Books will be asking £22,500 for a 1954-1955 three-volume first edition of “The Lord of the Rings” by J.R.R. Tolkien. It is sumptuously covered in red morocco leather by the binders at Bayntun Riviere.

And with the rise of tech, online sales have increasingly replaced high street transactions, resulting in many rare-book shops closing. Tom W. Ayling, who trades from his home in Oxfordshire and is exhibiting at Firsts London, is one of the most prominent of a cohort of young dealers who sell online and at fairs without the expense of a shop.

Advertisement

“I get almost all my customers through social media,” said Ayling, who has about 298,000 followers on Instagram alone.

Tolkien is a favorite subject for his engaging, regular video posts. Ayling will be bringing a copy of the author’s extremely rare collection of poems, “Songs for the Philologists.” Printed in 1936, only about 15 copies of the collection are known. Ayling is asking £65,000 for this one.

“I put as much content out there as I can to get people interested in book collecting,” Ayling said. “I want to widen the arcane world of book collecting to a mass audience.”

A mass audience collecting — let alone reading — books? That really would be a revolution.

Advertisement
Continue Reading
Advertisement

Trending