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Raoul Pal: The US-China AI Race 2026 Is a War No One Can Win

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Raoul Pal: The US-China AI Race 2026 Is a War No One Can Win

Key Takeaways

Pal Warns the AI Race Has No Clear Winner

Retired Goldman Sachs hedge fund manager and co-founder of financial media platform Real Vision, Raoul Pal, framed the deepening U.S.-China artificial intelligence (AI) competition in stark terms recently, stating:

“The U.S.-China AI race is a race no one can win and no one can afford to lose. Every great power competition in history was for territory, resources, or weapons. This one is the first that is for none of them. It is a race for the substrate of intelligence itself.”

His comments arrive as the AI race between the two largest economies has reached a critical juncture, with both nations pursuing radically different strategies. While the U.S. retains a clear lead at the technological frontier, particularly in compute scale, model performance, and large language model (LLM) development, China has pivoted toward a model built on efficiency gains, open-source diffusion, and deep integration of AI into physical-world systems.

A May 2026 analysis argued that China is now winning dimensions of the race that Western analysts had underweighted, specifically domestic AI deployment at scale, manufacturing integration, and the ability to build competitive models with significantly less compute than U.S. frontier labs require.

Rather than competing for a single AGI breakthrough, China has fragmented its strategy across multiple simultaneous races, be it model efficiency, AI adoption, or AI-controlled industrial systems.

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Why Crypto Ownership and Universal Equity Matter

For Pal, the competitive stakes extend beyond pure technology into economic architecture. Speaking at Consensus 2026 in Miami, he proposed a concept called ‘Universal Basic Equity’ which gives citizens ownership stakes in AI systems as a structural response to the labor displacement expected as AI automates knowledge work at scale.

The proposal seems to align with Pal’s longstanding view that crypto-native ownership models may be better positioned than governments to distribute the economic gains from AI in the long run.

The broader geopolitical backdrop also carries implications for crypto markets in all of this given U.S.-China tech tensions have previously influenced export control regimes, chip access, and the regulatory environment for digital assets operating across both markets. A Brookings Institution analysis noted the competition spans multiple dimensions simultaneously (compute, models, adoption, integration, and deployment), making any single-axis assessment of “who is winning” incomplete.

What Pal’s framing adds to that picture is a philosophical dimension, i.e., the stakes may be unlike anything a geopolitical competition has involved before, since previous rivalries over territory, energy, or weapons were ultimately contests over finite resources. Intelligence and the systems that generate it are not analogous in the same way. That distinction, if Pal is right, can make the outcome of this race structurally different from anything that preceded it.

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After hundreds of millions lost to fraud, NC lawmakers push for crypto ATM protections

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After hundreds of millions lost to fraud, NC lawmakers push for crypto ATM protections

North Carolina lawmakers on Tuesday advanced a bill to protect consumers from cryptocurrency kiosk fraud.

House Bill 920, which passed the House with a 115-to-0 vote, aims to regulate an industry that its author claims is unregulated in the state.

“It’s the wild, wild West,” Rep. Neal Jackson, R-Moore, said during a committee discussion on Tuesday. “There is no regulation whatsoever in North Carolina. That’s what we’re trying to do here.”

Lawmakers cited a growing amount of fraud as the reason for the bill. About $389 million in losses were reported last year through cryptocurrency ATMs, a 58% increase from 2024, according to the FBI. The majority of those impacted are 60-plus.

The bill now goes to the Senate for consideration. It seeks to:

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  • Require licenses for all kiosk operators under the Money Transmissions Act.
  • Place operators under the supervision of the Commissioner of Banks.
  • Require fraud warnings and transaction receipts for every transaction.
  • Require compliance and consumer protection officers that are always available.

It also seeks to place limitations on transactions in an effort to reduce fraud, requiring a $2,000 daily limit for the first 30 days for new customers and a $5,000 daily limit for existing customers, who would qualify after 30 days.

While other states have service fees between 20% and 30%, Jackson suggests putting a cap at 14%.

State Rep. Tim Longest, D-Wake, expressed concern about having the kiosks at all in the state. He said the bill’s protections could be stronger. 

“These machines can be the subject of fraud, basically facilitating fraud on seniors and other vulnerable individuals and in those cases,” Longest said. “… In crafting regulations, I think it’s important that we ensure consumers are adequately protected by those regulations and I do not believe that, under the language of the bill currently before you, those regulations are sufficient to protect consumers.”

Jackson pointed to this bill as an effort to regulate, not shut down, cryptocurrency kiosks in the state and said there are even more consumer protections in place.

David N. Tente, the executive director of the ATM Industry Association, said the bill — and others like it — is problematic because it requires operators to provide refunds to fraud victims in certain instances.  

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“In most cases, the cash in the ATM/kiosk does not belong to the operator, which means that returning any of it would be, technically, theft,” Tente said. “If you give someone cash for something, and you change your mind after they leave, you probably won’t get it back.”

He added: “We certainly feel sorry for those being scammed, but there are very simple things you can do to avoid it.”  

Tente said these kinds of scams have existed for centuries, adding: “They are still here — just using different means of payment.”

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Zcash Climbs 80% Since June 5 as Traders Shrug off Orchard Bug Fears

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Zcash Climbs 80% Since June 5 as Traders Shrug off Orchard Bug Fears

Key Takeaways

The Orchard Vulnerability

Privacy coin Zcash (ZEC) surged on Tuesday, jumping 11.3% to $478 as it maintained a steady recovery that began shortly after it plunged to just under $265. At the time of writing (5:32 a.m. EST), the privacy coin’s latest climb pushed its gains since June 5 to approximately 80% and saw ZEC’s market capitalization reclaim the $8 billion threshold.

The coin, alongside rival monero, was one of a handful of altcoins that logged gains exceeding 5% even as bitcoin dipped below the $63,000 threshold. ZEC’s surge above $470 on June 9 resulted in $11.5 million in short positions on the coin being wiped out in 24 hours, compared with $2.43 million in liquidated long bets.

While Zcash has since wrestled back its top-dog status from chief rival Monero, the asset is still trading at a steep discount compared to its pre-June 5 peak of just over $600. Before the correction, ZEC was riding a powerful wave of momentum, fueled by a resurgence in the crypto-privacy narrative and high-profile endorsements from industry heavyweights like Arthur Hayes. However, that bullish trajectory ground to a sudden halt. The catalyst for the reversal was the unsettling discovery of a critical vulnerability within Zcash’s Orchard shielded pool—a zero-knowledge security flaw that had quietly lay dormant since 2022.

Despite this, supporters of the privacy coin believe the uncovering of the bug has not damaged ZEC’s long-term appeal. Posting on X, Eunice Wong insisted there is an extremely low likelihood an exploit was executed and said traders who offloaded their holdings had overreacted.

“Long-term thesis hasn’t changed. In an AI-driven world where every transaction is tracked, financial privacy will become the scarcest asset, and ZEC is still one of the strongest privacy plays in crypto. Catching this falling knife is going to look like a genius move,” Wong wrote.

Matthew Brienen, managing partner at Cryptocharged, said while he recently reduced his ZEC holdings, it was purely a risk-management decision rather than a change in conviction. Nevertheless, he offered an explanation for why caution is warranted even if there is no proof that ZEC was counterfeited.

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“The Orchard bug isn’t a confirmed inflation event. It’s a confirmed inability to prove supply integrity. Those are not the same thing. The most important fundamental fact to remember is that turnstile accounting is not the same as proving Orchard balances are legitimate. You can track what entered. You can track what exited. That doesn’t prove every claim inside the pool was valid,” Brienen explained.

He added, however, that if counterfeit Orchard notes do exist, they could remain hidden until redemption is ultimately forced. According to Brienen, the recent price action suggests that is exactly what the market is trying to price in.

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Top 100 Bitcoin Treasuries Now Hold 1.26M BTC

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Top 100 Bitcoin Treasuries Now Hold 1.26M BTC

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin Treasuries Are Turning Scarcity Into Strategy

Institutional bitcoin accumulation has grown dramatically, with the top 100 holders now controlling 1,258,090 BTC as of June 8, 2026, according to a chart published on X by HODL15Capital. This group includes public companies, private firms, mining operators, and treasury-focused entities, reflecting specialized corporate allocations alongside one dominant buyer.

At the top of the list, Strategy holds exactly 845,256 BTC, far surpassing every other entity. Twentyone Capital follows with 43,514 BTC, and Japan’s Metaplanet holds 40,177 BTC, showing that institutional BTC accumulation is global and spans multiple industries. Marathon Digital contributes 35,303 BTC.

Top 100 bitcoin treasury companies. Source: HODL15Capital

The size of Strategy’s lead reveals how uneven the race has become. One company controls more bitcoin than the rest of the top 100 combined, turning corporate treasury policy into a marketwide talking point. For investors, that concentration makes Strategy one of the clearest equity-market proxies for BTC exposure.

Other major names on the chart include Coinbase, Riot Platforms, Tesla, Spacex, Cleanspark, Block, Galaxy Digital, American Bitcoin Corp., and Hut 8. That lineup makes the trend easy to understand: bitcoin is no longer only a crypto-sector balance sheet bet. It now reaches miners, exchanges, technology firms, private companies, and treasury vehicles.

The BTC Concentration Across Sectors and Borders

The global spread of BTC holders is as notable as the headline total. Metaplanet’s top ranking shows adoption is no longer U.S.-centric, with participants from Japan, Canada, Europe, and Asia signaling worldwide corporate and institutional demand for bitcoin.

The supply angle is what makes the chart matter beyond crypto circles. The top 100 holders control more than 6% of bitcoin’s maximum 21 million supply, giving a singular corporate buyer a highly visible role in market liquidity. For shareholders, that creates both upside potential and sharper exposure to crypto-driven swings.

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Overall, the chart illustrates a highly centralized institutional concentration of bitcoin reserves. The focus is no longer just who holds the most, but how BTC has become a balance sheet battleground, with companies using treasury positions to signal conviction, attract investors, and position themselves in a more bitcoin-integrated financial landscape.

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