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Coinbase, Robinhood: Examining The Impact Of Spot Bitcoin ETFs

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Coinbase, Robinhood: Examining The Impact Of Spot Bitcoin ETFs

The SEC approved nearly a dozen spot Bitcoin ETFs on January 10 in what was heralded as a “watershed” moment for the crypto industry, opening the door for investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin without directly holding it. It’s widely expected that this approval and subsequent widespread access for institutions and retail investors will shape up to be one of the most bullish fundamental moments in Bitcoin’s history.

We have been anticipating this moment since 2019 when we stated: “One of the biggest hurdles for institutions, however, is not the idea of a world run on digital currencies, but rather the decentralization concept and the need for cryptocurrency storage. Institutional investors need to know the assets are secure, insured, and under the care of a trusted third party, per SEC rules, which requires advisers to keep client funds with a qualified custodian.”

With a first batch of spot BTC ETFs approved, it’s prudent to assess the potential impact to exchanges and platforms, given that exchanges will now be competing on fees with ETFs, while increasing BTC prices and the next halving serve as potential tailwinds for miners.

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Trading Volumes Have Declined Significantly for Coinbase, Robinhood

For exchanges and trading platforms, such as Coinbase and Robinhood, that allow direct ownership of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, the ETF approval serves as a double-edged sword. The bull thesis is centered around how the approvals will help usher in a wave to new all-time highs for Bitcoin, and how that could translate into higher transaction revenues (which have declined significantly), while the main headwind and primary story is that the two may now be forced to compete on fees in the long run, which can keep transaction revenues depressed as trading volumes remain far below peak levels.

Coinbase has expressed no desire to change its fee structure to compete with ETFs in the immediate term, per President and COO Emilie Choi’s remarks in its Q3 earnings call:

Q: “Will Coinbase consider reducing transaction fees to make them more competitive with other platforms where ETFs are being traded at significantly lower prices?”

A: “We have no current plans to reduce transaction fees because of ETFs. If you just zoom out a little bit, spot ETF should be a positive catalyst for the entire crypto space. They should add credibility to the market, and we should see increased liquidity and market stability as we’ve seen with other asset classes such as gold.”

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Choi’s answer hinted towards a potential headwind to Coinbase’s model – market stability. Coinbase noted that in Q3, “crypto asset volatility, a driver of our trading business, continued to decline, and it reached levels that we haven’t measured since 2016.”

A majority of Q3 witnessed little to no volatility in Bitcoin prices – August saw one decline of more than (10%) and a 6% rise, but aside from that, prices were relatively stable. Volatility heightened in October as Bitcoin broke the $30,000 mark and ascended towards $35,000, while the remainder of Q4 witnessed relatively heightened volatility as well.

Due to stable crypto prices, Coinbase’s trading volume dipped more than (17%) QoQ and (52%) YoY to $76 billion in the quarter, while transaction revenues declined nearly (12%) QoQ and (21%) YoY to $289 million.

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Heightened crypto volatility is a primary driver of Coinbase’s trading business, so periods with less volatility, i.e. stability, correlate to lower trading volumes and transaction revenues. Coinbase noted that its October transaction revenue was $105 million (around 9% higher than Q3’s monthly average), but cautioned investors not to extrapolate that figure for Q4. If you do extrapolate that sum, Q4’s transaction revenues would fall between $310 million to $320 million, signaling flat to a low single-digit YoY decline in transaction revenue despite an ~80% rally in Bitcoin.

In a broader view, both trading volume and transaction revenue have declined significantly since peaking in Q4 2021, when Bitcoin made a round trip from $47,000 to new highs above $64,000 before pulling back to $47,000. Trading volumes in Q3 were nearly (83%) lower than Q4 2021, at $76 billion compared to $547 billion.

Transaction revenues similarly are down more than (87%) since then, with five straight quarters below $400 million. Transaction revenues accounted for more than 46% of Coinbase’s total revenue in Q3, so there is heightened risk to Coinbase’s model now that a fee-competitive asset class exists, as it may potentially draw away trading volume and thus transaction revenue via lower fees.

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Monthly transacting users have also declined (40%), from 11.2 million in Q4 2021 to 6.7 million in Q3 2023, with the decline accelerating over the past two quarters.

These trends in trading volumes and transaction revenues are not exclusive to Coinbase, as Robinhood is reporting similar weaknesses in both metrics.

Robinhood’s notional crypto trading volume was ~$6.8 billion in Q3, a (25%) QoQ and (53%) YoY decline. Since Q4 2021, trading volume has fallen (85%), interestingly nearly the exact percentage drawdown as Coinbase.

Transaction revenues peaked in Q2 2021 for Robinhood at $233 million, before plunging to $51 million the next quarter; unlike Coinbase, Robinhood did not see a second higher peak in transaction revenue. For Q3 2023, Robinhood reported $23 million in transaction revenue, representing a (26%) QoQ and (55%) YoY decline; unlike Coinbase, crypto transaction revenues are under 5% of Robinhood’s total revenue, so there is less risk from ETFs, as investors could choose to invest in the ETFs directly on Robinhood’s platform.

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Robinhood hinted that it is more willing to be competitive on fees, saying that it rolled out some UI changes in Q3 so its crypto customers “can clearly see the spreads that we offer on our crypto transactions. This makes it easier for customers to see their all-in cost of execution, compare it against other platforms and see how great of a deal Robinhood is giving them.” By focusing on offering a better deal than competitors, Robinhood is potentially limiting upside to transaction revenues via a lower average fee – its average fee rate in Q3 of 0.338% was more than 10% lower than Coinbase’s average fee rate of 0.380%.

With a basket of ETFs now approved, Robinhood and Coinbase will have to compete on fees, as certain classes of investors are likely to choose ETFs over directly holding crypto for exposure due to trust. In just the first week after the approval of the ETFs, we’ve seen strong demand for top of the class funds: BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust has surpassed $1 billion AUM in its first week, a rare milestone that few ETFs share.

This is the first major speed bump for the bull case – how Coinbase and Robinhood can find ways to drive trading volumes higher, while maintaining higher fees than ETFs, to drive an inflection in transaction revenues.

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Retail trading accounts for more than 95% of Coinbase’s transaction revenue while accounting for less than 15% of trading volume – this suggests that to drive a meaningful uptick in transaction revenues, Coinbase will need to see strong growth in retail trading volumes. More volatile Bitcoin prices, or a run to higher highs, can serve as a catalyst for higher trading activity; however, Coinbase holds the view that the ETFs will lead to more stability in the market, meaning more investors may choose to buy and hold with less active trading.

Custodial Fee Benefits & Risk for Coinbase

The ETF approvals offer one direct benefit to Coinbase, in that it stands to earn custodial fees by serving as the custodian for 8 of the 11 approved ETFs, including the most popular of the class, the iShares Bitcoin Trust.

Coinbase will be providing custodial, trading and lending services to the ETF issuers, giving it a stream of revenue via fees for these services, but opening up the door to a significant concentration of risk. Custodial fees currently account for ~2.5% of Coinbase’s revenue at less than $16 million in Q3, leaving opportunity for significant growth via ETFs – however, impacts from ETFs will not be visible until Q1 earnings, given the recent launch date.

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Serving as the sole custodian for more than three-quarters of the approved ETFs heightens risks to investors, as a security compromise, hack or other operational failure on Coinbase’s part could significantly impact the ETF’s value or increase difficulty in accessing funds.

A multi-custodian approach helps safeguard investor assets by reducing the dependency on a single entity for providing all of the necessary services for an ETF to function. Therefore, it is likely that these ETFs, and other approved ETFs, will diversify away from relying on Coinbase as a sole custodian to having multiple custodians. This could reduce custodial fees should Coinbase lose its status as custodian for more than 75% of spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Conclusion

The approval of the spot Bitcoin ETFs is expected a game-changer for crypto, as it is widely believed that the approval and subsequent widespread access for institutions and retail investors will shape up to be one of the most bullish fundamental moments in Bitcoin’s history.

To attempt to size the demand the ETFs may create, Grayscale has $18 billion assets under management, and iShares has surpassed $1 billion already. If we assume over the long run that these Bitcoin ETFs average $5 to $8 billion AUM, this could add an additional $55 to $90 billion in demand for a limited supply of Bitcoin. As a reminder, Bitcoin is limited to 21 million Bitcoins and the next halving occurs in 2024. Halving can lead to a higher value for Bitcoin as it reduces the number of new bitcoins being generated by the network.

A push to new all-time highs for Bitcoin sits at the core of the bull thesis for crypto platforms such as Coinbase, as higher prices theoretically would lead to higher volatility and thus higher trading volumes and higher transaction revenues. Even with Bitcoin’s 80% push back to the high $40,000 level, Coinbase’s clues suggest that transaction revenues may not meaningfully accelerate in the high-teen to low-20% range.

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Given this substantial decline in trading volume and resulting declines in transaction revenue for both Coinbase and Robinhood, the bull case centered around ETF approval ushering in strong revenue growth is weakened. There are many moving parts with how the ETFs will alter the crypto landscape, but unless both platforms witness trading volume more than double over the next few quarters, it is hard to see how this creation of a fee-competitive environment can serve as a tailwind to revenue growth over the short to medium-term.

If you own crypto stocks or Bitcoin, or are looking to own crypto stocks and Bitcoin, we encourage you to attend our weekly premium webinars, held every Thursday at 4:30 pm EST for premium members to discuss how to navigate the broad market, as well as various stock entries and exits. We offer trade alerts plus an automated hedging signal. The I/O Fund team is one of the only audited portfolios available to individual investors. Learn more here.

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Crypto Insiders Say Daily Senate Meetings Keep CLARITY Act Alive | PYMNTS.com

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Crypto Insiders Say Daily Senate Meetings Keep CLARITY Act Alive | PYMNTS.com

With time running out to strike a deal on cryptocurrency legislation, U.S. senators remain divided on several issues, Semafor reported Thursday (June 25).

Those issues include potential restrictions on President Donald Trump’s ability to profit from digital assets, how to fill empty seats at the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), how to govern yields on stablecoins, and how to combat illicit finance, according to the report.

Senators interviewed by Semafor had differing views on the likelihood of a deal being struck on the crypto bill.

Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyo.) said lawmakers hope to get a bill to the Senate floor in July.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) said of the negotiations: “There’s a path there, it’s just that we’re kind of running out of time.”

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Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.) said: “I’m pretty down on the lack of progress.”

Supporters of the bill hope to reach a bipartisan deal before the fall midterm elections, which will take away momentum from this and other legislative priorities, per the report.

Bloomberg Government reported Thursday that Lummis said lawmakers will soon release an updated draft of the CLARITY Act that will address some of the outstanding issues.

Kristin Smith, president of the Solana Policy Institute, said in a Thursday post on X that while many people in the crypto community are concerned about the progress of the CLARITY Act, and there’s never a guarantee that legislation will pass, she strongly believes there is a path to get the bill to the President’s desk.

There are active conversations going on between senators of both parties, the White House, the crypto industry and other stakeholders, Smith said in another post.

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“There are daily in-person meetings between key negotiators at the member level,” Smith said in a third post. “That wouldn’t be happening if no one thought this could go anywhere. In Congress, time is scarce, and CLARITY has a lot of attention.”

In Thursday post on X by the Blockchain Association, the organization’s CEO, Summer Mersinger, said that negotiations around outstanding issues in the CLARITY Act are “active, serious and solvable … A July vote should remain the goal — and is, in my view, absolutely achievable.”

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Bitcoin Slides Nearly 20% in June as $715M in Crypto Long Bets Collapse

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Bitcoin Slides Nearly 20% in June as 5M in Crypto Long Bets Collapse

Key Takeaways

Volatility Grips Bitcoin After Fresh YTD Low

After plummeting to a fresh year-to-date (YTD) low of $58,035 Thursday morning, bitcoin rebounded to erase its 24-hour losses. While the flat net performance paints a stable picture, the daily chart tells a different story—revealing violent price swings that triggered the moment bitcoin crossed below $59,000 on Wednesday.

Data shows bitcoin breached $61,000 less than three hours after tumbling to what was then its YTD low. Although it subsequently dropped below this level, the cryptocurrency traded close to it until shortly after midnight, when another rally eventually pushed it past $61,800. While it lost momentum before reaching $62,000, it nonetheless managed to hold above $61,000 until 9:20 a.m. EDT.

While its plunge to $58,000 took less than 30 minutes, a relief rally saw the cryptocurrency reclaim $59,000 about half an hour later. At the time of writing (1:42 p.m. EDT), the top cryptocurrency traded slightly above $59,500, translating to a mere 0.4% drop over 24 hours. This marginal drop left its market capitalization still under the $1.2 trillion mark.

With the June curtain closing, bitcoin is increasingly poised to clock 30-day losses north of 20% and leave the first half of 2026 bleeding out by more than 30%. The retreat exposes just how far the mighty have fallen; since scaling an all-time high of over $126,000 in October 2025, bitcoin has seen more than half of its peak value utterly erased.

A Crypto Crisis or a Macro Realignment?

Meanwhile, on the derivatives market, bitcoin’s price action over 24 hours saw $484 million in leveraged positions liquidated, with long bets accounting for approximately 70%, or $339 million. Overall, the crypto economy saw $1.01 billion in leveraged positions wiped out, with long bets accounting for $715 million.

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As bitcoin continues to slide to fresh yearly lows, investor panic is palpable, forcing many to scramble for the exits. However, seasoned analysts argue this is a macro story, not a fundamental failure. Boris Alergant, head of GTM at Babylon Labs, maintains that the sell-off mirrors a broader, market-wide risk-off reset rather than an isolated crypto event. If anything, Alergant suggests, this volatility proves bitcoin is no longer an island—it is deeply integrated into the traditional financial machine.

“It reacts to liquidity, rates, positioning, and institutional flows in the same way other major macro assets do. Near term, I do think the market could remain under pressure through the summer. AI has been absorbing a significant amount of investor mindshare, capital, and talent that might otherwise have flowed into crypto. With major AI companies moving closer to the public markets, there also appears to be some repositioning happening across growth and technology exposure more broadly,” Alergant said.

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The cryptocurrency industry has entered the “Show Me” era: merely relying on vision is no longer enough | WEEX Crypto News

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The cryptocurrency industry has entered the “Show Me” era: merely relying on vision is no longer enough | WEEX Crypto News

Author: Paul Cafiero, a16z PR Partner

Compiled by: Hu Tao, ChainCatcher

For decades, the tech industry has gained public recognition and external praise through its emerging interesting ideas.

So much so that the entrepreneurial concept of “Minimum Viable Product” has received the same abbreviation as Jalen Brunson (New York Eternal) —— MVP.

However, in the past decade, especially in recent years, the tech field has undergone tremendous changes: Minimum Viable Products (MVPs), brilliant ideas, and excellent teams can no longer attract external audiences. The cryptocurrency industry has been particularly hard hit —— regulatory issues and bad actors frequently making headlines have intertwined —— which has heightened people’s ability to discern authenticity, as they are increasingly overwhelmed by various noise and begin to filter.

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When traditional finance (TradFi) participants take cryptocurrencies seriously —— for example, BlackRock launching tokenized money market funds, Fidelity applying to issue cryptocurrency ETFs, and JPMorgan conducting trading settlements on its self-developed blockchain —— the focus of discussion has shifted. This is not only about the essence of cryptocurrencies but also about how to gain recognition in the industry.

This is the moment we find ourselves in now. This moment quietly rewrites the rules for all those building in this field. Welcome to the era of “Show Me.”

What has changed? Why now?

Throughout much of the development of the cryptocurrency industry, it has followed a logic of commitment: vision equals product. You only need a white paper and a token to launch a project, and the media and cryptocurrency community will flock to it. People have always bet on the potential future direction of things, rather than what has already been proven. But this dynamic has shifted.

Why? In short, I believe this shift in communication is the result of several factors working together: a deepening skepticism about the sustained existence of this technology (which has been developing for over twenty years); traditional financial institutions entering the cryptocurrency space on a large scale, not just nominally but actually launching related products; and the artificial intelligence industry (whose overnight fame was actually built over decades) launching viable consumer-facing products.

Large institutions are no longer just spectators or limiting innovation efforts to their respective independent “innovation departments,” but are beginning to build scalable solutions: BlackRock and Larry Fink fully embracing tokenization; Fidelity’s custody and ETF infrastructure; JPMorgan’s Onyx network; Franklin Templeton’s on-chain money market fund.

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These are no longer experiments —— they are real products, backed by corresponding traditional financial compliance frameworks, institutional clients, and balance sheets.

The large-scale influx of TradFi has raised the bar for “serious” projects in the cryptocurrency space. When the world’s largest asset management company begins to tokenize government bonds, the level of proof a credible project needs to demonstrate to the media, partners, and the market also increases.

From a policy perspective, the industry has also entered the mainstream view. With stablecoin legislation (the genius bill passed last year, now comprehensive market structure legislation with the “CLARITY Act” expected to go for a full Senate vote), the way products are communicated will further change. If the “CLARITY Act” is passed, founders will be able to publicly discuss the products they are developing with an unprecedented level of specificity.

In summary, the industry has matured regardless of whether it is ready.

The resulting communication environment no longer starts with “What are you building?” but rather:

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“What have you built? Who is using it?”

In fact, this means that merely having an engaging story is no longer enough to change the status quo. We need evidence.

The New Proof Stack

The previously effective sales pitch —— “We are building X for Y, and here’s why” —— now needs an upgrade. I call it “layered evidence”: it can transform hypothetical abstract narratives into credible, concrete realities.

So, what does this proof stack look like?

Real, tangible partnerships —— not “in discussions.” Actual integrations, signed contracts, and partners willing to publicly state their reasons for choosing you. In the past, announcing partnerships was merely a perfunctory way to measure actual influence. Today, it is only truly effective when the partnership itself is a manifestation of influence. That is to say, a significant institution, protocol, or platform has chosen you among many alternatives; and you can clearly explain why.

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This also means sharing more hard data, such as transaction volumes on the mainnet (not the testnet), active wallet counts, revenue, and user retention curves. Not “rapid growth,” but specific percentages, time spans, and baseline figures. Journalists covering this field are becoming increasingly professional, and they will conduct on-chain verification. If your data cannot withstand scrutiny from Dune, CoinMarketCap, or other analytical tools, your reporting will not hold up.

The verification stack also involves sharing real signals about product-market fit: who is using your product? Why do they (including other market clients) continue to use it?

I believe the best proof of product-market fit is not a product launch announcement, but an organically growing community that existed before the PR push.

If your most enthusiastic users are your investors or stakeholders, that is a red flag, as they have financial incentives to promote. But if they are people who found you through word of mouth, that is definitely a story worth telling.

All of this relates to reporting before, rather than after, media hype —— third-party verification, audits, and independent research. The most credible evidence is not fabricated, but rather what others tell the world is true.

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So, what does this mean for startup communication?

In the early stages —— when the product is still taking shape but the vision is clear —— it is easy to want to throw out the vision first and write a manifesto. This feels sincere, and it is indeed sincere.

But in the current environment, this is seen as a risk.

A better approach is to build your narrative around what you can prove. Start with your most confident data points, even if they are small: a thousand daily active users who do not know the founders is more persuasive than a million-dollar strategic investment. A protocol that processed $50 million in transaction volume in the first 90 days is more attractive than one that can only handle large volumes after “scaling up.”

This also means you need to express your points more precisely. “We are building the future of payments” is an argument, not a proof. “We have reduced cross-border settlement time from three days to four minutes, and today three companies are using this service” is a proof that conveniently includes the argument.

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For teams and founders responsible for communication, the practical implication is that the story should start from facts, not the other way around. This is a different way of writing —— in some ways more difficult, requiring more discipline —— but it is what is truly effective. Especially in the current climate.

Long-term Strategy

But this does not mean that vision is unimportant. The best crypto communication still follows two paths simultaneously: one is to introduce what we have built, and the other is to explain why it is just the beginning of a larger plan. The difference lies in the order of information and the proportion of delivery.

The “proportion” I refer to is that in 2021, you could measure success with 80% vision and 20% substance. But now, that ratio has completely flipped.

You can still publish white papers, manifestos… but that is not enough. Vision is still important —— it makes the argument more persuasive and provides material for journalists and analysts —— but the vision must be supported by the substance behind it.


The “Show Me Era” is not a temporary adjustment in the industry. The cognitive level of the cryptocurrency audience —— including media, institutions, and retail investors —— is increasingly rising, and this trend has become a foregone conclusion.

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The best developers in this field have realized that this is actually good news. If you have real user growth, authentic data, and genuine partners, then a higher bar is actually beneficial to you; it filters out distracting information and makes your signal clearer and louder.

The question is whether your communication strategy is designed to prove this, or if it is still just designed to make promises.

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