Crypto
Avalanche: More Pain Ahead? (Cryptocurrency:AVAX-USD)
bin kontan
When I last covered the Avalanche (AVAX-USD) blockchain in early June, I gave the native coin of the network a “bullish” call and noted what I viewed as a divergence between the AVAX price and the blockchain’s usage. Since that article, it’s been essentially nothing but pain for AVAX holders as the coin has declined by roughly 35% and has lagged notable smart contract network peers like Ethereum (ETH-USD) and Solana (SOL-USD):
My frustrations with the coin’s performance aside, I think it’s important to re-examine many of the factors that ultimately led me to go long AVAX in the first place to see if those setups still warrant a bullish position.
Network Activity
Back in June, I looked at daily transactions, daily active users, and NFT sales. Each of which were surging through April and May. That is no longer the case as we move through September.
IntoTheBlock
After topping out at over 500k transactions back in late May, it has been a slow decline back to trend for Avalanche transactions in the subsequent months. More importantly though, the surge in chain usage never impacted the AVAX price the way it did back in late 2021 and early 2022.
Avalanche DAUs (Token Terminal)
Daily active users on the network have fallen about 75% from the mid-June peak of 117k to the more recent level of 31-35k. When smoothing the figure out to a monthly average for DAUs, at 36k, so far September is the third consecutive monthly decline from 78k in June. As one might imagine, a large part of this decline in usage appears to be due to the declines in NFT activity on the network.
Month
Sales (USD)
Unique Sellers
Unique Buyers
Total Txns Avg Sale (USD)
September 2023
$75,171.39
1,546
4,926 12,003
$6.26
August 2023
$353,144.99
5,209 14,263
46,583
$7.58
July 2023
$461,909.51 16,789
19,159
81,675
$5.66
June 2023 $593,548.85
16,409
11,875
63,899
$9.29 May 2023
$774,626.36
11,089
5,888
35,685 $21.71
April 2023
$1,082,286.65
2,942
5,764 30,104
$35.95
Source: CryptoSlam
There were over $1 million in USD-denominated NFT sales on Avalanche in April and the average sale price of those NFTs was over $35 per item. Fast-forward to August and the average price of NFT sales fell below $8. On one hand, this is an indication that Avalanche can indeed be used for lower-value transactions. Which is something Ethereum has yet to be able to do on the main layer to this point. However, the argument could also be made that even with more buyers, sellers, and NFT transactions in August versus April, AVAX holders haven’t benefited from the increase in NFT-market headcount.
Valuation
One of the other things that I considered back in my June article was chain valuation. While I’ll concede that all of these networks have egregious P/S valuations if we’re comparing them to traditional equities, the “crypto P/S” valuation story on Avalanche had been improving earlier this summer. That is no longer the case.
Avalanche P/S Ratio (Token Terminal)
There are two different ways to measure the price-to-sales ratio of a smart contract blockchain network. We can look at the P/S ratio vs. the fully diluted coin supply or vs. the circulating coin supply. For the sake of simplicity, I’ve put both of those ratios in the chart above. Each of them have been gradually increasing over the last 4 months. The monthly average fully diluted P/S ratio was 483 in May. The monthly average circulating P/S ratio was 224. As of the article submission, those figures are currently 1,169 and 573 for the month of September. For a comparison, Ethereum trades at a fully diluted P/S ratio of 144 while Polygon (MATIC-USD) trades at 474.
Development
It isn’t all terrible news for Avalanche, however. Over the last several years, Avalanche has seen steady growth in development activity.
Avalanche Development (Santiment)
Santiment’s contributor count shows growth from a weekly average of 23 in August 2021 to 35 last August. That average grew slightly to 37 in August 2023. But the overall trend in both raw contributors and development activity is positive.
Risks
Aside from the decline in broad network usage and the valuation problems, there are other risks to consider as well. Avalanche has seen an absolutely enormous 95% decline in TVL from $11.6 billion in late 2021 to under $500 million currently:
Avalanche TVL (DeFiLlama)
The market capitalization of stablecoins on the network has also fallen from a high of $4.5 billion down to $1.2 billion. This is by no means a problem that is exclusive to just Avalanche but as I see it the decline in DeFi footprint on Avalanche is having an impact on the demand for AVAX. As interest rates rise, the incentive to buy bonds directly rather than playing in the DeFi markets becomes more apparent.
AVAX Holder Concentration (IntoTheBlock)
Furthermore, the retail holder base of AVAX is small compared to other smart contract blockchains like Ethereum or Cardano (ADA-USD). The IntoTheBlock chart above shows 47% of AVAX is held by whales and 31% is held by what IntoTheBlock considers to be investors. That means retail holds just 22%. I think it could be reasonably argued that AVAX is functioning more as a pure speculative asset than as a utility coin used to pay gas for network activity.
Summary
While I’m downgrading AVAX today from a “buy” to a “hold,” I haven’t thrown in the towel on this network entirely. I still think there are interesting opportunities in the crypto market and Avalanche as a network continues to be one of those ideas. It’s a fast chain that has integrations with many of the top protocols in the DeFi ecosystem. It serves a market that Ethereum requires secondary layers to serve at this current time. I’m not out of AVAX entirely, but I have trimmed my position on this adoption weakness and will reassess the idea again in the months to come.
Cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase said Tuesday (Jan. 14) that it is investigating a problem with delayed sends of Ripple (XRP) on its platform.
“We are aware that some users may be experiencing delayed sends for Ripple (XRP),” Coinbase said in an incident report on its status page. “Buys, Sells and Fiat withdrawals/deposits are not affected. We are investigating this issue and will provide an update shortly.”
In an earlier, separate report on its status page, Coinbase said some users experienced delayed sends and receives for Stellar (XLM) on Friday (Jan. 10). That incident was resolved within 90 minutes.
On Thursday (Jan. 9), some users experienced latency or degraded performance with buys, sells, sends, Coinbase Onramp and Advanced Trade. That issue was resolved within two hours, according to the page.
In other, separate news about the company, it was reported Thursday (Jan. 9) that Coinbase told customers that it may have to share data demanded by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The regulator sent a subpoena to the firm that seeks information about Coinbase customers’ interactions with prediction market firm Polymarket, and Coinbase emailed some customers saying it may have to share that data with the CFTC.
“When we receive requests for information from a government, each request is carefully reviewed by a team of trained experts using established procedures to determine its legal sufficiency,” a Coinbase spokesperson told CoinDesk.
On Dec. 9, cryptocurrency payments solution firm Triple-A announced an integration with Coinbase that it said it designed to let Coinbase users make payments to select merchants in the Triple-A network.
“Triple-A’s integration with Coinbase Commerce will empower merchants to offer a Coinbase-specific payment option, enhancing the convenience for Coinbase users and allowing Coinbase to connect with a wider network of merchants, to drive the broader adoption of cryptocurrency payments,” the company said in a press release.
Coinbase upgraded its Coinbase One subscription program and launched a new tier called Coinbase One Premium on Dec. 4, saying that with these new offerings, “Coinbase One now truly benefits all types of traders.”
Coinbase One membership has reached 600,000 across 42 countries, the company added.
Stay Ahead of the Market:
An update from Axiom Capital Advisors, Inc. ( (TSE:WHIP) ) is now available.
Credissential Inc. announced a new Cryptocurrency Acquisition Policy aimed at enhancing shareholder value by purchasing digital assets like XRP and XLM. This move aligns with the company’s cryptocurrency initiatives and allows investors exposure to the growing digital asset market. The policy is also seen as a strategy to navigate inflationary pressures while diversifying the company’s treasury holdings, indicating a proactive approach to adapting to market trends and delivering long-term shareholder value.
More about Axiom Capital Advisors, Inc.
Credissential Inc. is a vertically integrated AI software development company focusing on advancing financial technology solutions. The company is committed to developing innovative products such as Antenna, a payment platform enhanced with AI and quantum encryption technologies, and DealerFlow, an AI-driven dealer management system designed to streamline operations and enhance efficiency.
YTD Price Performance: -6.45%
Average Trading Volume: 298,973
Technical Sentiment Consensus Rating: Buy
Current Market Cap: C$6.17M
Find detailed analytics on WHIP stock on TipRanks’ Stock Analysis page.
Bitcoin’s
price (BTC) is making significant gains on Tuesday, January 14, 2025, adding
over $2,000 to its value. However, Monday saw the market shaken, with the price
briefly dropping to a two-month low below the critical $90,000 psychological
level.
In this
article, I review what triggered the sudden drop, why the Bitcoin price is
going up today, and how to interpret the bullish pin bar above the 50-day
exponential moving average—a potentially strong buy signal.
On Tuesday,
Bitcoin is trading above $97,000 on Binance, marking its highest value in a
week. The cryptocurrency is currently up 2.7%, with altcoins following suit.
Ethereum (ETH) has gained 4.9% over the past 24 hours, reaching
$3,200, while XRP, the third-largest cryptocurrency by market cap, has
risen 7% to $2.56.
As shown in Bitcoin price is currently inside a consolidation. Source: Tradingview.com
the chart below, Bitcoin’s price remains in a consolidation phase that has been
in place since November, with the lower boundary near $92,000 and the upper
limit at its previous high of $98,000.
However,
Monday painted a less optimistic picture as
Bitcoin briefly dipped to just $89,398, causing significant panic and
confusion among retail investors.
The
temporary panic was also evident in the derivatives market: within four days,
investors pulled $1.6 billion from cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds (ETFs),
marking one of the longest selling streaks in recent times.
Over the Source: Coinglass.com
past 24 hours, both bulls and bears have incurred losses. Approximately $500
million in leveraged positions were liquidated across the market, with nearly
equal distribution between long and short positions. Bitcoin accounted for over
20% of this activity, with $44 million liquidated from long positions and $72
million from shorts.
Analysts
attribute the recent decline in Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market
to two primary factors: so-called “Trump Trade” and monetary policy.
Why Bitcoin Fell? Fed
Policy and Market Uncertainty Shake BTC Price
The
cryptocurrency market’s downturn is primarily driven by shifting expectations
about Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate policies. Strong economic indicators
have led investors to anticipate a longer period of higher interest rates. The
robust U.S. job market, with 256,000 new nonfarm payrolls and a 4.1%
unemployment rate, has particularly influenced this outlook.
According The chances that the Fed will lower rates this month are almost zero. Source: CME
to the CME’s FedWatch tool, the probability of a rate cut at the next meeting,
scheduled for January 29, is just 2.7%. The market is currently pricing in a
stronger likelihood (around 40%) of a cut to the 4.00–4.25% range in the second
half of the year. Earlier expectations were for a more aggressive path of rate
cuts, which was expected to fuel risk assets such as cryptocurrencies and
stocks.
Moreover, the
initial euphoria surrounding Trump’s pro-crypto stance has given way to more
cautious market sentiment. While Trump’s upcoming presidency promised to make
the U.S. the “crypto capital of the world,” investors are now
focusing on immediate economic realities rather than future policy promises.
The
cryptocurrency decline isn’t occurring in isolation. The selloff in Treasury
markets has created a ripple effect across various asset classes, affecting
both crypto and traditional markets. This broader market reaction demonstrates
Bitcoin’s increasing correlation with conventional risk assets.
Will Bitcoin Keep Going
Up? BTC Price Prediction and Technical Analysis
The
candlestick I want to highlight in the technical analysis of Bitcoin ‘s price
chart may seem modest and even barely noticeable. However, in my view, it
carries significant strength and buying potential. This is a bullish pin bar
(or doji candle) with an almost invisible body and a very long lower wick,
indicating that bears were in control but had to concede to bulls by the
session’s close.
What
does the chart show?
- The bullish
pin bar tested the 50 EMA and two critical support levels: $92,000 and $90,000. - All three
levels held, and the price responded with an immediate increase the following
day. - This strong
bullish signal confirmed the lower boundary of the consolidation range,
signaling that buyers are likely to actively defend the green-marked support
zone.
Bitcoin technical analysis: BTC price chart drew a bullish pin bar candle. Source: Tradingview.com
While
Bitcoin remains in consolidation, this reaction suggests, from a purely
technical standpoint, the potential for a move towards $103,000 (the 2025
highs) and ultimately $108,000, the all-time high (ATH) to date.
Bitcoin Price Key Support
and Resistance Levels
|
Support |
Resistance |
|
$90,000 – psychological round |
$100,000 – psychological round |
|
$92,000 – local lows tested in |
$103,000 – highs from 2025 |
|
50 EMA – currently at $94,482 |
$108,000 – current ATH |
Breaking
above the current all-time high is a necessary condition for considering
ambitious forecasts for 2025 and beyond. Some of these projections are
truly bold.
Bitcoin Price Prediction:
Will BTC Reach $1 Million?
Late last
year, I explored the question, “Will
Bitcoin hit $1 million?” According to Jeff Park, Head of Alpha
Strategies at Bitwise Asset Management, this could be possible if the U.S.
government were to adopt a Bitcoin reserve strategy. However, he currently
assigns only a 10% probability to this scenario.
Arthur
Hayes, the Founder of the cryptocurrency exchange BitMEX, has frequently
mentioned such ambitious levels as $1 million. Last week, he appeared as a guest on
Tom Bilyeu’s show, where he discussed the current state of the
cryptocurrency market during a nearly two-hour interview. Hayes suggested that
Bitcoin is gradually heading toward seven-figure valuations and could
potentially reach them within the next five years.
“It’s the bull market. When the music is playing you gotta $DANCE.” ~ Arthur Hayes x Tom Bilyeu#crypto #dance #memecoin #solana #bullrun pic.twitter.com/g9MdkEtIZe
— DANCE MEMECOIN 🤩 (@dancememecoin) January 7, 2025
“Bitcoin
has already survived for 15 years. This makes investors start to believe that
it can last for decades to come.” – Hayes commented. “BTC will be here for
the next 15, 20, 100 years. I think it will be a store of value. I can use it
to pay for things I need, so I’m going to take 2%, 3%, 4%, 5%, 10% of my
retirement income or savings and start buying that asset now.”
Other
experts, including VanEck analysts, predict more down to earth numbers. Month
ago, they
forecasted that Bitcoin price could reach $180,000 in 2025.
JUST IN: $118 billion VanEck predicts $180,000 #Bitcoin and the U.S. will embrace a Strategic BTC Reserve in 2025 🇺🇸 pic.twitter.com/s7lnNgkyhn
— Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine) December 13, 2024
Bitcoin Price, FAQ
Why Is the Price of
Bitcoin Going Up?
Bitcoin’s
price is rising due to a strong bullish pin bar forming above critical support
levels, signaling strong buying activity. Market sentiment improved as Bitcoin
rebounded from a two-month low of $89,398 to trade above $97,000. This movement
reflects consolidation within the $92,000–$98,000 range, supported by technical
indicators and broader market optimism.
Will Bitcoin Rise Again?
Bitcoin’s
price is expected to rise further based on technical analysis. If it breaks
through key resistance at $103,000, it could test the all-time high of
$108,000. Long-term projections remain optimistic, with some experts predicting
significant gains by 2025, assuming market conditions remain favorable.
Why Is Bitcoin So Valuable
Today?
Bitcoin’s
value stems from its status as a decentralized digital asset with limited
supply, serving as a hedge against inflation and a potential store of value.
Its increasing adoption, network security, and potential as a global reserve
asset contribute to its high valuation.
Why Did Bitcoin Fall
Recently?
Bitcoin’s
recent decline was driven by market reactions to expectations of prolonged
higher interest rates from the Federal Reserve. Strong U.S. economic data
reduced the likelihood of rate cuts, pressuring risk assets like
cryptocurrencies. Additionally, shifting sentiment around pro-crypto policies
under the upcoming U.S. administration added to market uncertainty.
How Much Will Bitcoin Cost
in 2025?
Bitcoin’s
2025 price predictions vary widely. Analysts forecast potential highs ranging
from $180,000 (VanEck) to over $1 million (Arthur Hayes), depending on adoption
trends, macroeconomic conditions, and regulatory developments. A more
conservative estimate places Bitcoin at $180,000, reflecting steady growth
without speculative excess.
Bitcoin’s
price (BTC) is making significant gains on Tuesday, January 14, 2025, adding
over $2,000 to its value. However, Monday saw the market shaken, with the price
briefly dropping to a two-month low below the critical $90,000 psychological
level.
In this
article, I review what triggered the sudden drop, why the Bitcoin price is
going up today, and how to interpret the bullish pin bar above the 50-day
exponential moving average—a potentially strong buy signal.
On Tuesday,
Bitcoin is trading above $97,000 on Binance, marking its highest value in a
week. The cryptocurrency is currently up 2.7%, with altcoins following suit.
Ethereum (ETH) has gained 4.9% over the past 24 hours, reaching
$3,200, while XRP, the third-largest cryptocurrency by market cap, has
risen 7% to $2.56.
As shown in Bitcoin price is currently inside a consolidation. Source: Tradingview.com
the chart below, Bitcoin’s price remains in a consolidation phase that has been
in place since November, with the lower boundary near $92,000 and the upper
limit at its previous high of $98,000.
However,
Monday painted a less optimistic picture as
Bitcoin briefly dipped to just $89,398, causing significant panic and
confusion among retail investors.
The
temporary panic was also evident in the derivatives market: within four days,
investors pulled $1.6 billion from cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds (ETFs),
marking one of the longest selling streaks in recent times.
Over the Source: Coinglass.com
past 24 hours, both bulls and bears have incurred losses. Approximately $500
million in leveraged positions were liquidated across the market, with nearly
equal distribution between long and short positions. Bitcoin accounted for over
20% of this activity, with $44 million liquidated from long positions and $72
million from shorts.
Analysts
attribute the recent decline in Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market
to two primary factors: so-called “Trump Trade” and monetary policy.
Why Bitcoin Fell? Fed
Policy and Market Uncertainty Shake BTC Price
The
cryptocurrency market’s downturn is primarily driven by shifting expectations
about Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate policies. Strong economic indicators
have led investors to anticipate a longer period of higher interest rates. The
robust U.S. job market, with 256,000 new nonfarm payrolls and a 4.1%
unemployment rate, has particularly influenced this outlook.
According
to the CME’s FedWatch tool, the probability of a rate cut at the next meeting,
scheduled for January 29, is just 2.7%. The market is currently pricing in a
stronger likelihood (around 40%) of a cut to the 4.00–4.25% range in the second
half of the year. Earlier expectations were for a more aggressive path of rate
cuts, which was expected to fuel risk assets such as cryptocurrencies and
stocks.
The chances that the Fed will lower rates this month are almost zero. Source: CME
Moreover, the
initial euphoria surrounding Trump’s pro-crypto stance has given way to more
cautious market sentiment. While Trump’s upcoming presidency promised to make
the U.S. the “crypto capital of the world,” investors are now
focusing on immediate economic realities rather than future policy promises.
The
cryptocurrency decline isn’t occurring in isolation. The selloff in Treasury
markets has created a ripple effect across various asset classes, affecting
both crypto and traditional markets. This broader market reaction demonstrates
Bitcoin’s increasing correlation with conventional risk assets.
Will Bitcoin Keep Going
Up? BTC Price Prediction and Technical Analysis
The
candlestick I want to highlight in the technical analysis of Bitcoin ‘s price
chart may seem modest and even barely noticeable. However, in my view, it
carries significant strength and buying potential. This is a bullish pin bar
(or doji candle) with an almost invisible body and a very long lower wick,
indicating that bears were in control but had to concede to bulls by the
session’s close.
What
does the chart show?
- The bullish
pin bar tested the 50 EMA and two critical support levels: $92,000 and $90,000. - All three
levels held, and the price responded with an immediate increase the following
day. - This strong
bullish signal confirmed the lower boundary of the consolidation range,
signaling that buyers are likely to actively defend the green-marked support
zone.
Bitcoin technical analysis: BTC price chart drew a bullish pin bar candle. Source: Tradingview.com
While
Bitcoin remains in consolidation, this reaction suggests, from a purely
technical standpoint, the potential for a move towards $103,000 (the 2025
highs) and ultimately $108,000, the all-time high (ATH) to date.
Bitcoin Price Key Support
and Resistance Levels
|
Support |
Resistance |
|
$90,000 – psychological round |
$100,000 – psychological round |
|
$92,000 – local lows tested in |
$103,000 – highs from 2025 |
|
50 EMA – currently at $94,482 |
$108,000 – current ATH |
Breaking
above the current all-time high is a necessary condition for considering
ambitious forecasts for 2025 and beyond. Some of these projections are
truly bold.
Bitcoin Price Prediction:
Will BTC Reach $1 Million?
Late last
year, I explored the question, “Will
Bitcoin hit $1 million?” According to Jeff Park, Head of Alpha
Strategies at Bitwise Asset Management, this could be possible if the U.S.
government were to adopt a Bitcoin reserve strategy. However, he currently
assigns only a 10% probability to this scenario.
Arthur
Hayes, the Founder of the cryptocurrency exchange BitMEX, has frequently
mentioned such ambitious levels as $1 million. Last week, he appeared as a guest on
Tom Bilyeu’s show, where he discussed the current state of the
cryptocurrency market during a nearly two-hour interview. Hayes suggested that
Bitcoin is gradually heading toward seven-figure valuations and could
potentially reach them within the next five years.
“It’s the bull market. When the music is playing you gotta $DANCE.” ~ Arthur Hayes x Tom Bilyeu#crypto #dance #memecoin #solana #bullrun pic.twitter.com/g9MdkEtIZe
— DANCE MEMECOIN 🤩 (@dancememecoin) January 7, 2025
“Bitcoin
has already survived for 15 years. This makes investors start to believe that
it can last for decades to come.” – Hayes commented. “BTC will be here for
the next 15, 20, 100 years. I think it will be a store of value. I can use it
to pay for things I need, so I’m going to take 2%, 3%, 4%, 5%, 10% of my
retirement income or savings and start buying that asset now.”
Other
experts, including VanEck analysts, predict more down to earth numbers. Month
ago, they
forecasted that Bitcoin price could reach $180,000 in 2025.
JUST IN: $118 billion VanEck predicts $180,000 #Bitcoin and the U.S. will embrace a Strategic BTC Reserve in 2025 🇺🇸 pic.twitter.com/s7lnNgkyhn
— Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine) December 13, 2024
Bitcoin Price, FAQ
Why Is the Price of
Bitcoin Going Up?
Bitcoin’s
price is rising due to a strong bullish pin bar forming above critical support
levels, signaling strong buying activity. Market sentiment improved as Bitcoin
rebounded from a two-month low of $89,398 to trade above $97,000. This movement
reflects consolidation within the $92,000–$98,000 range, supported by technical
indicators and broader market optimism.
Will Bitcoin Rise Again?
Bitcoin’s
price is expected to rise further based on technical analysis. If it breaks
through key resistance at $103,000, it could test the all-time high of
$108,000. Long-term projections remain optimistic, with some experts predicting
significant gains by 2025, assuming market conditions remain favorable.
Why Is Bitcoin So Valuable
Today?
Bitcoin’s
value stems from its status as a decentralized digital asset with limited
supply, serving as a hedge against inflation and a potential store of value.
Its increasing adoption, network security, and potential as a global reserve
asset contribute to its high valuation.
Why Did Bitcoin Fall
Recently?
Bitcoin’s
recent decline was driven by market reactions to expectations of prolonged
higher interest rates from the Federal Reserve. Strong U.S. economic data
reduced the likelihood of rate cuts, pressuring risk assets like
cryptocurrencies. Additionally, shifting sentiment around pro-crypto policies
under the upcoming U.S. administration added to market uncertainty.
How Much Will Bitcoin Cost
in 2025?
Bitcoin’s
2025 price predictions vary widely. Analysts forecast potential highs ranging
from $180,000 (VanEck) to over $1 million (Arthur Hayes), depending on adoption
trends, macroeconomic conditions, and regulatory developments. A more
conservative estimate places Bitcoin at $180,000, reflecting steady growth
without speculative excess.
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