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Why 'economic headwinds' are suddenly to blame for everything

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Why 'economic headwinds' are suddenly to blame for everything

An atmospheric disturbance is whipping through the job market.

When Volvo announced it was cutting more than a thousand jobs last year, its CEO cited a particular phenomenon for the cuts. When the founder of the Messenger announced to his hundreds of employees that they were all laid off without severance, less than a year after the online publication booted up, the same weather pattern got the blame.

Chief executives at accounting firms, cookie companies and Crypto.com have all laid off thousands of workers in the last year, and pointed the finger at one metaphorical culprit: economic headwinds.

The phrase evokes a solemn CEO scanning the sky from the deck of the corporate ship. Eye on the horizon, he senses a change in the weather, a different snap to the rippling canvas, a new chop to the sea. With a grim set to his jaw, he concludes that only one course of action can save the voyage: massive layoffs.

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Headwinds have always blown around in business English, but the phrase economic headwinds serves a special purpose: a majestic waving of the hand, an abandon to the fates, an inkling of force majeure.

“It’s a useful term, because we can’t control the wind,” said Thomas C. Leonard, a historian of economics at Princeton University. “If you’re a corporation trying to sell unhappy outcomes to shareholders or regulators, it’s a way of saying it’s a tough environment, but more importantly it’s a tough environment beyond our control.”

It’s a phrase heard often these days in the tech and media sectors, which face real challenges.

Tech companies that could raise and spend cash freely when interest rates were close to zero are struggling to stay afloat. The ad market has hit the doldrums — in part because all those companies that used to have cheap cash to pump into ads now have to keep their powder dry — which has taken the wind out of the sails of many media businesses, which had been facing financial problems for decades. And in L.A., Hollywood studios have been slow to pick up the pace of production after last year’s strikes, as they face questions over the viability of the streaming business model.

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Executives in these industries are using the term precisely because of the contrast between their challenges and the wider world, Leonard said.

“The wild thing is, notwithstanding the headwinds in media and technology, the economy is doing unbelievably well,” Leonard said. Inflation is down, unemployment is at historically low levels, the U.S. is outperforming other rich countries, the stock market is booming, and even inequality of wealth and income is falling, Leonard said.

This presents a conundrum for those tasked with swinging the ax: how to explain why your company is ailing when everybody can see blue skies above?

By leaning on economic headwinds, executives can acknowledge a problem while avoiding getting into the messy details — say an outdated business model or internal failings.

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EDGAR, the online database of the Securities and Exchange Commission, confirms that economic headwinds are being evoked more now than ever. In the 2000s, only a slight breeze was blowing, with public filings showing a handful of economic headwinds mentions. Things picked up in 2008 and 2009, as the financial crisis battered corporate America, but conditions seemed to subside in the middle of the last decade.

Then high interest rates rolled in. Since 2022, when the Federal Reserve started ratcheting up the federal funds rate to cool down the economy, EDGAR has been logging record after record. Nearly 500 companies mentioned economic headwinds in 2022. In 2023, that more than doubled to over 1,000.

A scan of the Newspaper Archive, which stretches back to the 18th century, tells a similar story. Through the booms and busts of the Gilded Age, the cataclysms of the Great Depression and the whirlwind of the 1970s oil crisis and stagflation, economic headwinds were barely worth mentioning. Most early mentions are riffs on the metaphor of the ship of state, with entire nations beating against the breeze, or come as puns in stories about airplanes or shipping companies.

But something changes after Y2K. Press usage of the phrase follows the same trajectory as the SEC record — with mentions up through the recession, followed by a dip, and now heading to new heights.

The collective experience of the last few years — pandemic, recession, inflation and now interest rate hikes — may have led to a turning of the rhetorical tides, said Robert Reich, professor of public policy at UC Berkeley and former secretary of Labor.

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“The dominant economic assumption for really the entire post-World War II era has been that Keynesian macroeconomic management can tame the uncertainties and extremes of the economy,” Reich said. But since 2020, it’s been difficult to avoid the sense that things are spiraling out of control. “Most people felt at sea, and there’s something not necessarily comforting but seemingly realistic about these metaphors now.”

The economy stopped feeling like a precision machine in need of a tuneup, pointed surely toward growth, and started feeling more like an unpredictable journey to an unknown shore.

“Seeing the economy as a boat, one of those old galleons, or a three-masted schooner, tossed on the great waves of uncertainty and the waves of this roiling system makes much more sense to people,” Reich said.

It’s also “a wonderfully convenient way of avoiding responsibility” when things go sideways, Reich added.

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Nautical metaphors are nothing new for the world of commerce — trade, finance and the joint-stock company can all trace their roots to seafaring merchants engaged in risky adventures to haul holds full of goods across the world in capital-intensive ships. And business euphemisms aren’t just limited to the seas. Few parts of the natural world have been spared from the corporate lexicon, with its changing landscapes and seismic shifts. Even the cosmos is fair game, especially in a tech world known for its moon shots and escape velocities.

Such fanciful phrases might serve a more grounded purpose: smoothing things over with investors. Research has shown that euphemisms actually work to soften bad news in the financial markets.

Kate Suslava, a professor of accounting at Bucknell University, spent years tracking how the use of metaphors in corporate earnings calls changes how the stock market reacts to new information. She found that investors aren’t total rubes — the stock prices of companies whose executives used negative metaphors like speed bumps or economic headwinds, or mentioned the need to tighten our belt or sharpen our pencils to get back to work after a series of missteps, indeed went down on the day of the earnings call.

What surprised her was that over the following months, the stock prices of the companies in question continued to drift down. “Investors take it as bad news, but it should be even worse news,” Suslava said. “If the market was efficient, they would completely capture it on the date of the call.”

In other words, a softening metaphor gets investors to under-react to the bad news. “Which is exactly the point of euphemisms,” Suslava said. “They work.”

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California’s gas prices push Uber and Lyft drivers off the road

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California’s gas prices push Uber and Lyft drivers off the road

The highest gas prices in the country are making it tougher for some gig drivers to make a living.

Gas prices have shot up amid the war in the Middle East. On average, California gas prices are the most expensive in the United States, according to data from the American Automobile Assn. The average price of regular gas in California is almost $6. The national average is a little above $4.

While Uber and Lyft drivers have concocted clever ways to cut gas consumption, they say that without some relief they will be forced to leave the ride-hailing business.

John Mejia was already struggling to make money as a part-time Lyft driver when soaring gas prices made his side hustle even harder.

“Unfortunately, it’s the economics of paying less to drivers and gas prices,” he said. “It actually is pulling people out of the business.”

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Guests at The Westin St. Francis hotel get into an Uber.

(Jess Lynn Goss / For The Times)

Gig work offers drivers the freedom to work for themselves and more flexibility, but being independent contractors also means they must shoulder unexpected costs.

Ride-sharing companies say they’re trying to help, but drivers say the gas relief comes with caveats. For now, drivers say they’re being pickier about what rides they accept, cutting hours and are looking at other ways to make money.

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Mejia, who started driving for Lyft more than a decade ago, said in his early days, he would sometimes make $400 in three hours. Now it takes 12 hours to rake in $200.

The San Francisco Bay Area consultant is an active member of the California Gig Workers Union, so he knows he isn’t alone. California has more than 800,000 gig rideshare drivers, according to the group, which is affiliated with the Service Employees International Union.

On social media sites such as Reddit and Facebook, gig workers have posted about how the higher gas prices are eating into their earnings. Among the tricks they are suggesting: reducing the number of times the ignition is turned on or off, avoiding traffic, working in specific neighborhoods and at times with high demand and switching to electric vehicles.

Gig drivers usually have only seconds to decide whether to accept a ride on the app, but they have become more strategic about which rides and deliveries they accept.

That means they are more likely to sit back in their cars and wait for higher fares for quick pick-up and drop-off.

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“I highly recommend the ‘decline and recline’ strategy, rejecting unprofitable rides until a better one appears,” wrote Sergio Avedian, a driver, in the popular blog the Rideshare Guy.

Pedestrians cross the street in front of a Lyft and Uber driver.

Pedestrians cross the street in front of a Lyft and Uber driver on Wednesday. High gas prices have made it hard for gig drivers to make a living, cutting into their profits.

(Jess Lynn Goss / For The Times)

Uber, Lyft and other companies have unveiled several ways to help drivers save on gas.

Uber said drivers can get up to 15% cash back through May 26 with the Uber Pro card, a business debit Mastercard for drivers and couriers. Based on a worker’s tier, they can get up to $1 off per gallon of gas through Upside — an app that offers cash rewards — and up to 21 cents off per gallon of gas with Shell Fuel Rewards. The company also offers incentives for drivers who want to switch to electric vehicles.

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“We know the price of gas is top of mind for many rideshare and delivery drivers across the country right now,” Uber said in a blog post about its gas savings efforts.

Lyft also said it’s expanding gas relief through May 26 because the company knows that the extra cost “hits hardest for drivers who depend on driving for their income.”

The company is offering more cash back, depending on the driver’s tier, for drivers who use a Lyft Direct business debit card to pay for gas at eligible gas stations. They can get an additional 14 cents per gallon off through Upside.

Drivers say the fine print on the offers dictates which card they use and where they fill up gas, making it difficult for them to save money.

“If I do the math, it’s ridiculous,” Mejia said. “They’re offering us nothing.”

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Uber declined to comment, but pointed to its blog post about the gas relief efforts. Lyft also referenced the blog post and said “the gas savings were structured through rewards to maximize stackable opportunities.”

Guests at The Westin St. Francis hotel get into an Uber.

Guests at The Westin St. Francis hotel get into an Uber.

(Jess Lynn Goss / For The Times)

Gig workers have struggled with rising gas prices in the past.

In 2022, Lyft and Uber temporarily added a surcharge to their fares amid record-high gas prices following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This year, Uber is adding a fuel charge to its fares in Australia for roughly two months to offset the high cost of gas for drivers. Lyft said it hasn’t added a fuel charge in the U.S. or elsewhere.

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Margarita Penalosa, who drives full time for Uber and Lyft in Los Angeles, started as a rideshare driver in 2017. Back then, gas was cheaper. She would easily hit her goal of making $300 in eight hours. Now she’s making just $250 after working as much as 14 hours.

Gas prices, she said, used to be less than $3 per gallon. Now some gas stations are charging more than $8 per gallon.

“Take out the gas. Take out the mileage from my car and maintenance. How much [do] I really make? Probably I get $11 for an hour,” she said.

Jonathan Tipton Meyers wants to spend fewer hours as a rideshare driver.

He already juggles multiple gigs even while driving for Uber and Lyft in Los Angeles. He’s a mobile notary and loan signing agent, a writer and performer.

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Driving is “a very challenging, full-time job,” he said. “It’s very taxing and, of course, wages were just continually decreasing.”

A man stands for a portrait in a white button up shirt

John Mejia, a longtime Lyft and Uber driver, poses for a portrait before attending a meeting about unionizing gig drivers.

(Jess Lynn Goss / For The Times)

Even if oil continues to flow through the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran reopened Friday, it could take a while for gas prices to come down to earth, said Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moody’s Analytics.

“There’s an old adage that prices rise like a rocket and fall like a feather,” he said. “I think that’ll apply.”

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In the meantime, it will be survival of the fittest drivers. If enough of them decide to leave the apps, the ride-hailing companies could be forced to raise fares further to attract some back.

“Those who approach rideshare driving strategically, tracking expenses, choosing trips carefully, and optimizing efficiency are far more likely to weather periods of high gas prices,” wrote Avedian in the Rideshare Guy blog. “For everyone else, a spike at the pump can quickly turn rideshare driving from a side hustle into a money-losing venture.”

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‘We’ve lost our way’: Clifton’s operator gives up on downtown Los Angeles

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‘We’ve lost our way’: Clifton’s operator gives up on downtown Los Angeles

The proprietor of Los Angeles’ legendary Clifton’s has given up on reopening the shuttered venue.

It’s just too difficult to do business in downtown’s historic core, he says.

Andrew Meieran bought Clifton’s on Broadway in 2010 and poured more than $14 million into repairs, renovations and upgrades, adding additional bar and restaurant spaces in the four-story building. In 2018, he found that demand for cafeteria food was too low to be profitable, and he pivoted to a nightclub and lounge concept called Clifton’s Republic, featuring multiple dining and drinking venues. Meieran has tried elaborate themed environments, such as a tiki bar and forest playgrounds, and renting out the location for big events to spark more interest.

It was never easy, but during and since the pandemic, the neighborhood has grown increasingly unsafe as downtown has emptied of office workers and visitors.

Storefronts are gated up due to vandalism in the historic district in downtown Los Angeles on Tuesday.

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(Eric Thayer / Los Angeles Times)

The alley behind Clifton's Cafeteria in the downtown historic district Tuesday.

The alley behind Clifton’s Cafeteria in the downtown historic district Tuesday.

(Eric Thayer / Los Angeles Times)

Vandalism has been rampant, with graffiti appearing on the historic structure almost daily. Vandals would use acid or diamond glass cutters to deface the windows, often cracking the glass. It would cost Meieran more than $30,000 each time to replace the windows. Insurance companies either stopped offering policies that covered vandalism or raised premiums by as much as 600%, he said.

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There has been continuous crime in the area, he said, including multiple assaults on people in front of his building. He last shut the venue last year, hoping things would improve and he could come back with a business that could work. Now he has given up. Someone else may take over the space or even the name of the historic spot, but he is done trying.

“We’ve lost our way,” Meieran said. “I want to get up on the tops of the skyscrapers and yell that people need to pay attention to this.”

The disenchantment of a business leader who used to be one of downtown L.A.’s biggest backers shines a spotlight on the stubborn safety concerns, rising costs and thinner foot traffic that have made it increasingly difficult for even iconic businesses to survive.

The once-popular institution dates back to 1935, when it was a Depression-era cafeteria and kitschy oasis that sold as many as 15,000 meals a day when Broadway was the city’s entertainment hub.

It served traditional cafeteria food such as pot roast, mashed potatoes and Jell-O in a woodsy grotto among fake redwood trees and a stone-wrapped waterfall reminiscent of Brookdale Lodge in Northern California.

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It’s not the only once-prominent destination that has failed to find a way to flourish in today’s market. Cole’s, one of L.A.’s most famous restaurants and often credited with inventing the French dip sandwich, closed last month after a 118-year run.

“The bigger problem for us and the rest of the industry is the high cost of doing business,” said Cedd Moses, who used to operate Cole’s and has backed many other bars and restaurants in historic buildings downtown for decades. “That’s what is killing independent restaurants in this city.”

Outside of Clifton's Cafeteria.

Outside of Clifton’s Cafeteria.

(Eric Thayer / Los Angeles Times)

Clifton's Republic owner Andrew Meieran stands next to a boat on the top floor of the historic restaurant in 2024.

Clifton’s Republic owner Andrew Meieran stands next to a boat on the top floor of the historic restaurant in 2024.

(Wally Skalij / Los Angeles Times)

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Clifton’s opened and closed repeatedly during the pandemic and, more recently, after a burst pipe caused extensive damage. Meieran opened it for special events such as last Halloween, but it has otherwise been closed.

Police are woefully understaffed and hampered by public policy, said Blair Besten, president of downtown’s Historic Core Business Improvement District, a nonprofit that arranges graffiti removal, trash pickup and safety patrols in the area.

Businesses and residents in the area would like to see a bigger police presence, but there have been protests against that by people who are not from downtown, she said.

“People are starting to see the fruits of the defunding movement,” she said. “It has not led us to a better place as a city.”

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The Los Angeles Police Department is making progress downtown, Captain Kelly Muniz said, with violent crime down more than 10% from last year.

“While we’re working very hard to solve crime, to prevent crime, there are still elements such as trash, open-air drug use, homelessness and graffiti,” she said. “We’re swinging in the right direction.”

Retailers have been opting out of downtown L.A., said real estate broker Derrick Moore of CBRE, who helps arrange commercial property leases. Brands have headed to more vibrant nearby neighborhoods such as Echo Park and Silver Lake.

“A lot of operators are just electing to skip over downtown,” he said. “They’re leasing spaces elsewhere, where they feel they have a greater chance at higher sales.”

A man walks past a pile of trash left on the street in the historic district.

A man walks past a pile of trash left on the street in the historic district.

(Eric Thayer / Los Angeles Times)

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While some businesses are struggling, many downtown residents say their perceptions of safety are improving and that the area is regaining some vibrancy.

“A lot of people live here. I think people forget that,” Besten said. “We’re all surviving. It’s just hard for all the businesses to survive.”

A green shoot for the Historic Core is Art Night on the first Thursday of every month, when 50 or 60 locations, including permanent art galleries and pop-up galleries in unused storefronts, display art to map-toting visitors who come for the occasion.

They often end up in Spring Street bars, which more typically thrive on weekend nights but are still a draw to downtown.

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“I think nightlife will thrive downtown, since bars attract people that don’t mind a little grittier atmosphere,” said Moses. “Our sales are hitting new records at our bars downtown, fortunately, but our costs have risen dramatically.”

A closed sign for Clifton's Cafeteria.

A closed sign for Clifton’s Cafeteria.

(Eric Thayer / Los Angeles Times)

Clifton’s former backer, Meieran, says he doesn’t think things are going to bounce back enough to warrant more massive investment. He has sold the building, and the owner is looking for a new tenant to occupy Clifton’s space. He still controls the Clifton’s name.

While there is still a chance he could let someone else use the name Clifton’s, Meieran is done for now — too many bad memories.

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“There was a guy who was terrorizing the front of Clifton’s because he decided he wanted to live in the vestibule in front, and he didn’t want us to operate there,” Meieran said. “He would threaten to kill anybody who came through.”

He doesn’t believe official statistics that show crime and homelessness are way down in the area, and he doesn’t want to restart a business when criminals can so easily erase his hard work.

“What business that’s already on thin margins can survive that?” he said.

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If you shop at Trader Joe’s, it may owe you $100

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If you shop at Trader Joe’s, it may owe you 0

Trader Joe’s customers might soon get a payout from the popular grocery chain.

The Monrovia-based company agreed to a $7.4-million settlement in a class action lawsuit that claimed customers were left vulnerable to identity theft.

Customers who purchased items with a credit or debit card from March to July in 2019 might be eligible for a payment as part of the settlement.

The plaintiff alleged that some receipts printed in 2019 included 10-digit credit or debit card numbers —double what’s allowed under the Fair and Accurate Credit Transactions Act.

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Trader Joe’s “vigorously denies any and all liability or wrongdoing whatsoever,” the grocery chain said in the settlement website. The grocery chain decided to settle to avoid a long and costly litigation process.

The payout will go toward paying impacted customers as well as attorney fees and other expenses.

About $2.6 million will go toward attorney fees, and the plaintiff will receive a $10,000 incentive payment, according to the settlement. The remaining funds will be distributed evenly among customers who submit valid claims.

It’s unclear how much money each customer would get, but the payout could be about $102, according to the settlement notice.

To receive the payout, customers must have received a receipt displaying the first six and last four digits of the card number.

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Some customers identified as part of the settlement class have been notified and received a class ID number to file a claim.

Customers have from now until June 6 to file a claim online or by phone.

A customer not identified in the settlement can still submit a claim by entering the first six and last four digits of the card used, along with the date it was used at Trader Joe’s.

Brian Keim, the plaintiff who brought the case, used his debit card at stores in Florida in 2019. He said some stores printed transaction receipts that included the first six and last four digits of customers’ card numbers.

The receipts did not include other personal information, such as the middle digits of the users’ cards, the cards’ expiration dates, or the users’ addresses. No customer has reported identity theft as a result of the receipts since the lawsuit was filed, the grocer said.

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However, identity theft doesn’t require submitting a claim for payment.

The settlement was agreed upon by both the grocer and the plaintiff, but still has to be approved by a court. A hearing is set in August.

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