Business
'Where does it stop?' Warehouse advance in Riverside County threatens rural lifestyle
Seen from above, the industrial-scale warehouses straddling Interstate 215 where it intersects Mead Valley shimmer like a sprawling lake of white concrete boxes.
In this unincorporated Riverside County community, the big-box distribution hubs responsible for fulfilling online shopping orders have long been contained to a substantial strip west of the freeway. Burlington, Living Spaces and FedEx are among nearly 50 warehouse properties located here, capitalizing on Mead Valley’s easy access to rail and freeway corridors.
Beyond this strip, though, Mead Valley residents embrace a rural lifestyle. People here raise horses and livestock; most streets are lined with gravel trails, rather than sidewalks, to accommodate riders on horseback. Besides the new Farmer Boys restaurant near the freeway, the community has few local businesses other than gas stations, feed stores and plant nurseries.
As e-commerce exploded during the COVID pandemic, more distribution centers rose along the freeway, bringing more trucks to local roadways. Still, there was an understanding that, beyond the clearly delineated industrial zone, Mead Valley residents could maintain their solitude and sweeping views, in exchange for shouldering a disproportionate share of an industry critical to America’s online shopping habit.
But that sacred line in the dirt — where warehouse development ends and rural living begins — could soon be blurred.
Riverside County leaders are reviewing a dozen requests that would rezone portions of rural residential land in Mead Valley to create more space for industrial warehouses.
(Brian van der Brug / Los Angeles Times)
County leaders are reviewing a dozen requests that would rezone portions of rural residential land in Mead Valley to create more space for industrial use. Developers are seeking to expand warehouse development beyond the established industrial zone; at least one proposal would result in the demolition of dozens of homes as well as dedicated open space. Others would pierce the existing boundary, bringing the potential for warehouses and their 24/7 noise and exhaust to the outskirts of existing neighborhoods, fundamentally altering residents’ lifestyles.
County Supervisor Kevin Jeffries, who represents the district that includes Mead Valley, said he has “deep concerns” about the proposed changes. He described drawing a “big red rectangle” over Mead Valley’s industrial zone, indicating where he believed the boundaries of warehouse development should remain.
“All the low-hanging easy parcels for warehousing are pretty much all spoken for. And so the really big, deep-pockets developers now see opportunities to try and propose to go beyond the boundaries that have been put in place for decades,” said Jeffries, who is retiring after 12 years on the board.
“It’s going to be a challenge if they cross that line and start marching into what you might call Mead Valley proper. You start moving up that way — when or where does it stop?”
Resident Karla Cervantes expressed similar concerns. Cervantes and her husband, Franco Pacheco, raise their children and sheep on two acres in Mead Valley. She worries neighborhoods will start falling like dominoes as more rural residential land is rezoned for industrial use.
“Once one neighborhood is surrounded by warehouses, then the investors will come, buy them out, and then it creeps up more and more and more,” Cervantes said.
The county’s general plan amendment process, a largely bureaucratic zoning review the county undertakes every eight years, could prove pivotal for residents of Mead Valley this year: Will leaders green-light the proposed zoning changes, paving the way for more warehouses — and with them more jobs and revenue flowing into county coffers? Or is this the moment that the rapid-fire proliferation of distribution centers stretching for miles in each direction along the 215 corridor finally slows?
Riverside County’s unique rezoning process is the result of a more than two-decade-old settlement with the conservation group Endangered Habitats League, which sued the county in 2003 over concerns about sprawling development.
The settlement “resulted in a way to slow-roll development in the rural areas of the county,” said county planning director John Hildebrand.
Under terms of the settlement, developers who want to request zoning changes for swaths of land from one of five major uses to another — agriculture, open space, rural, rural community or community development — are able to request that change only every eight years, during the county’s Foundation General Plan Amendment cycle.
The process was designed to provide county leaders with the opportunity to take a comprehensive look at rezoning proposals, and “look at the bigger picture instead of piecemealing it,” said Dan Silver, executive director of the Endangered Habitats League.
Mead Valley, a majority Latino community of about 20,500 people, already has 2,000 square feet of warehouses per person, including existing and approved warehouses and those under environmental review, according to a data analysis by Susan Phillips, director of the Robert Redford Conservancy for Southern California Sustainability at Pitzer College, and Mike McCarthy, an adjunct professor and data scientist at the college.
That’s one of the highest warehouse-per-resident ratios in the Inland Empire, according to their analysis. And the rezoning applications that developers have submitted would add more than 1,000 additional acres of warehouse projects.
In preparation for their requests, many developers have already positioned themselves as “property owners” of large parcels by getting enough local homeowners to agree to sell their land, in exchange for sizable payouts, contingent upon the county’s approval of the zoning changes.
The Planning Commission has so far heard three zoning-change requests for District 1, which includes Mead Valley; several were continued to future meetings. If supervisors approve the requests, the developers must return to get approval for specific projects.
“It’s going to be a challenge if they cross that line and start marching into what you might call Mead Valley proper,” Supervisor Kevin Jeffries says of warehouse development.
(Brian van der Brug / Los Angeles Times)
One developer, Hillwood, is seeking a zoning change to build a million-square-foot warehouse, along with a public park, on about 65 acres of land just west of Mead Valley’s industrial corridor.
Currently known as the Cajalco Commerce Center, the proposed development would require the demolition of 26 homes and a commercial building. The developer has promised an estimated 974 jobs, as well as infrastructure improvements and landscaping along a main thoroughfare, according to the project’s draft environmental impact report. It would have a “significant and unavoidable” impact on air quality and transportation, the report said.
Paz Treviño lives on the outskirts of Mead Valley’s industrial corridor, on a two-acre lot where he sells heavy construction equipment. He has agreed to sell his property to Hillwood for $3 million, contingent on county approvals, he said. He has outgrown his current lot, he said, and with the money he stands to make from selling his land, he hopes to buy five or 10 acres elsewhere.
A member of Mead Valley’s Municipal Advisory Committee, he supports allowing more industrial development.
The warehouses, he said, bring jobs to a community where fewer than 8% of residents have a bachelor’s degree. He’s heard concerns about the lack of grocery stores, restaurants and healthcare facilities, and predicted those amenities would come as family incomes rise.
“We’re going to start getting the stores that people want,” he said. “But we’re not going to get those other industries — the food industries, the retail industries — without first having a stabilized middle class.”
He is frustrated with the anti-warehouse advocates trying to stand in the way of rezoning, and believes landowners such as himself should be able to profit handsomely from their investments. “It’s the landowners that have the last say, is what I say,” he said. “And if you’re not within the area, mind your damn business.”
A warehouse development under construction in Mead Valley.
Shanowa De La Cruz could end up on the losing end of that equation.
De La Cruz, her wife and their children moved to a five-bedroom house on one acre in Mead Valley not far from Treviño’s property about three years ago. It was supposed to be their forever home, where they could raise their kids — five of six still live at home — as well as chickens, goats, ducks and a pig.
“We like our solitude. That’s why most of us live over here in Mead Valley,” De La Cruz said.
Six months after buying the property, they learned about the Cajalco Commerce Center proposal — and that some neighbors had already agreed to sell their properties to Hillwood. De La Cruz said she contacted the company and got an offer that barely covered what they paid for the home, presumably because the developer doesn’t need their property for the project.
The situation has left De La Cruz between a warehouse and a hard place: The developer would need to pay a “substantial” amount of money to get her family to move, she said. But if she stays and the proposal is approved, the development would loom nearby, infringing on their privacy and tanking their home value.
“It’s going to be one of those houses that is in between a warehouse” development, she said. “We’ve all seen those houses. No one’s going to buy that. You say, ‘Aw, pobrecito, they left them there.’”
Scott Morse, executive vice president with Hillwood, declined to comment on De La Cruz’s situation. He said the proposal has public support.
“We’re bringing something to the community that is needed and wanted by the community,” he said, “so that’s our compass.”
Mead Valley resident Raymond Torres says it’s “heartbreaking” to imagine the open space near his home converted for industrial development.
Raymond Torres moved away from the “hustle and bustle” of the San Diego area more than 20 years ago and eventually built two homes on a quiet street in Mead Valley.
Standing in his driveway on a clear day, he can see the San Jacinto and San Gabriel ranges, and Big Bear and Palomar mountains. Across the street from his property is open space, where he says he regularly sees owls and kangaroo rats among the grasses and native plants. His neighbors ride horses on the land; he prefers to traverse it on wheels — by dirt bike, quad or go-kart.
The property directly across the street from him is not proposed for rezoning, but a large swath of open land surrounding it is. The real estate and investment firm Deca has proposed rezoning 648.5 gross acres from rural residential to community development, with a mix of residential, commercial and industrial components, according to Travis Duncan, Deca’s vice president of development.
“Additionally, we intend to set aside a substantial portion of the property as open space and are excited about the mix of commerce and conservation that the project offers,” Duncan said.
Torres said it’s “heartbreaking” to imagine the land being used for development.
“It’s our neighborhood,” he said. “We have pride in it.”
The Deca proposal would also bring industrial development much closer to the home of Cervantes and Pacheco. Their two-lane street already has become a truck bypass. They are concerned warehouses will beget warehouses, eventually ending up in their backyard.
Mead Valley is oversaturated with warehouses and semis, they argue, and yet the community itself remains underinvested. Mead Valley would look “amazing” if it was actually benefiting from major portions of the revenue that industrial development is generating for Riverside County, Cervantes jokes. Pacheco notes that the closest Target — on the other side of the freeway — is not a retail store but a massive distribution center.
Earlier this year, Pacheco and Cervantes launched the Mead Valley Coalition for Clean Air to oppose warehouse expansion. They see the rezoning fight as a fight for Mead Valley’s future. For the residents who stay, the question is whether county leaders will rubber-stamp continued expansion of the I-215 industrial corridor, and whether that line in the dirt — between industrial and rural residential — will survive.
But Cervantes said trying to keep Mead Valley from drowning in the shimmering sea of white warehouses often feels like an uphill battle. She worries about a future with worse air quality and decreased property values, and about the limited opportunities for young people growing up amid a mass logistics hub.
“When they look to see the sun rise,” she said, “they’re going to see the sun rise on a bunch of warehouses.”
This article is part of The Times’ equity reporting initiative, funded by the James Irvine Foundation, exploring the challenges facing low-income workers and the efforts being made to address California’s economic divide.
Business
Abandoned shops and missing customers: Fire-scarred businesses are still stuck in the aftermath
The charred remains of the historic Pacific Palisades Business Block cast a shadow over a once-bustling shopping district along West Sunset Boulevard.
Empty lots littered with debris and ash line the street where houses and small businesses once stood. A year since the Palisades fire roared through the neighborhood, only a handful of businesses have reopened.
The Starbucks, Bank of America, and other businesses that used to operate in the century-old Business Block are gone. All that remains of the Spanish Colonial Revival building are some arches surrounding what used to be a busy retail space. The burned-out, rusty remnants of a walk-in vault squat in the center of the structure.
Nearby, the Shade Store, the Free-est clothing store, Skin Local spa, a Hastens mattress store, Sweet Laurel Bakery and the Hydration Room are among the many stores still shuttered. Local barbershop Gornik & Drucker doesn’t know if it can reopen.
“We have been going back and forth on what it would take to survive,” co-owner Leslie Gornik said. “If we open, we have to start over from scratch.”
Hundreds gathered around Business Block on the anniversary of he fire on Wednesday to witness a military-style white-glove ceremony to pay respects to the families who lost loved ones. Photos of those killed from the neighborhood were placed at the Palisades Village Green next door.
The Palisades fire burned for 24 days, destroying more than 6,800 structures, damaging countless others and forcing most of the neighborhood’s residents to move elsewhere. About 30 miles northeast, the Eaton fire burned more than 9,400 structures. Combined, the fires killed 31 people.
Remnants of the the Pacific Palisades Business Block, which was completed in 1924 and burned in the Palisades fire.
The few businesses that are back in Palisades serve as a beacon of hope for the community, but owners and managers say business is down and customers haven’t returned.
Ruby Nails & Spa, located near the Business Block, was closed for eight months before reopening in September. Now business is only half of what it was before the fires, owner Ruby Hong-Tran said.
“People come back to support but they live far away now,” she said. “All my clients, their houses burned.”
Ruby Hong-Tran, owner of Ruby Nails & Spa in Pacific Palisades, says her business is half of what it was since reopening.
It took months to clean all the smoke damage from her shop. The front is still being fixed to cover up burn damage.
The firestorms destroyed swaths of other neighborhoods, including Malibu, Topanga, Sierra Madre and Altadena, where businesses and homeowners also are struggling to build back.
Some are figuring out whether it is worth rebuilding. Some have given up.
The Los Angeles Economic Development Corporation estimated last year that more than 1,800 small businesses were in the burn zones in Pacific Palisades, Malibu and Altadena, impacting more than 11,000 jobs.
Businesses say they often have been on their own. The Federal Emergency Management Agency tasked the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to clean up debris at private residences, some public buildings and places of worship — but not commercial properties.
Business owners had to clean up the charred debris and toxic waste on their properties. Many had to navigate complicated insurance claims and apply for emergency loans to stay afloat.
Rosie Maravilla, general manager of Anawalt’s Palisades Hardware, said damage to her store was limited, and insurance covered the cleaning, so she was able to open quickly. The store reopened just one month after the fire.
Rosie Maravilla, general manager of Anawalt Palisades Hardware, in front of of the store in Pacific Palisades.
Still, sales are 35% lower than what they used to be.
“In the early days, it was bad. We weren’t making anything,” Maravilla said. “We’re lucky the company kept us employed.”
The customer base has changed. Instead of homeowners working on personal projects, the store is serving contractors working on rebuilding in the area.
An archival image of the area in Pacific Palisades hangs over the aisles in Anawalt Palisades Hardware, where business is down despite a customer base of contractors who are rebuilding.
Across the street from the Business Block, the Palisades Village mall was spared the flames and looks pristine, but is still closed. Shop windows are covered with tarps. Low metal gates block entry to the high-end outlets. The mall is still replacing its drywall to eliminate airborne contaminants that the fire could have spread.
All of its posh shops still are shut: Erewhon, Lululemon ,Bay Theater, Blue Ribbon Sushi, athletic apparel store Alo, Buck Mason men’s and Veronica Beard women’s boutiques.
Mall owner and developer Rick Caruso said he is spending $60 million to reopen in August.
The need to bring back businesses impacted by the fires is urgent, Caruso said, and not just to support returning residents.
“It’s critical to bring jobs back and also for the city to start creating some tax revenue to support city services,” he said. ”Leaders need to do more to speed up the rebuilding process, such as speeding up the approval of building permits and stationing building inspectors closer to burn areas.”
Pedestrians walk past the Erewhon market in Palisades Village that plans to reopen this year.
(Genaro Molina/Los Angeles Times)
Wednesday, on the anniversary of the fire, Caruso sent three light beams into the sky over the mall, which met in one stream to honor the impacted communities of Pacific Palisades, Altadena and Malibu.
The nighttime display will continue through Jan. 31.
Business Block’s history dates to 1924, when it served as a home for the community’s first ventures. In the 1980s, plans to tear it down and build a mall sparked a local uprising to save the historic symbol of the neighborhood’s vibrancy. It was designated a Los Angeles Historic-Cultural Monument in 1984.
Tiana Noble, a Starbucks spokesperson, said the landlord terminated the company’s lease when the building burned down. Bank of America said it secured a new lease to rebuild nearby.
Business Block’s fate is still unclear. Some people want to preserve its shell and turn it into a memorial.
This week, it was ringed by a fence emblazoned with the words “Empowering fresh starts together.”
Caruso said the ruins should be torn down.
“It needs to be demolished and cleaned up,” he said. “It’s an eyesore right now and a hazard. I would put grass on it and make it attractive to the community.”
Twisted and scorched remnants of the the Pacific Palisades Business Block still are there a year after the fire.
A short walk from the Business Block and near a burned-down Ralphs grocery store is the Palisades Garden Cafe, one of the few places in the neighborhood to get food and drink. The small, vibrant cafe was closed for two months after the fire, during which the employees went without pay.
Manager Lita Rodriguez said business is improving, but misses the regulars.
“We used to get tons of students and teachers who live and work here,” she said. “Our customers are mostly contractors now.”
Business
California led the nation in job cuts last year, but the pace slowed in December
Buffeted by upheavals in the tech and entertainment industries, California led the nation in job cuts last year — but the pace of layoffs slowed sharply in December both in the state and nationwide as company hiring plans picked up.
State employers announced just 2,739 layoffs in December, well down from the 14,288 they said they would cut in November.
Still, with the exception of Washington, D.C., California led all states in 2025 with 175,761 job losses, according to a report from outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas.
The slowdown in December losses was experienced nationwide, where U.S.-based employers announced 35,553 job cuts for the month. That was down 50% from the 71,321 job cuts announced in November and down 8% from the 38,792 job cuts reported the same month last year.
That amounted to good news in a year that saw the nation’s economy suffer through 1.2 million layoffs — the most since the economic destruction caused by the pandemic, which led to 2.3 million job losses in 2020, according to the report.
“The year closed with the fewest announced layoff plans all year. While December is typically slow, this coupled with higher hiring plans, is a positive sign after a year of high job cutting plans,” Andy Challenger, a workplace expert at the firm, said in a statement.
The California economy was lashed all year by tumult in Hollywood, which has been hit by a slowdown in filming as well as media and entertainment industry consolidation.
Meanwhile, the advent of artificial intelligence boosted capital spending in Silicon Valley at the expense of jobs, though Challenger said the losses were also the result of “overhiring over the last decade.”
Workers were laid off by the thousands at Intel, Salesforce, Meta, Paramount, Walt Disney Co. and elsewhere. Apple even announced its own rare round of cuts.
The 75,506 job losses in technology California experienced last year dwarfed every other industry, according to Challenger’s data. It attributed 10,908 of the cuts to AI.
Entertainment, leisure and media combined saw 17,343 announced layoffs.
The losses pushed the state’s unemployment rate up a tenth of a point to 5.6% in September, the highest in the nation aside from Washington, D.C., according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data released in December.
September also marked the fourth straight month the state lost jobs, though they only amounted to 4,500 in September, according to the bureau data.
Nationally, Washington, D.C., took the biggest jobs hits last year due to Elon Musk’s initiative to purge the federal workforce. The district’s 303,778 announced job losses dwarfed those of California, though there none reported for December.
The government sector led all industries last year with job losses of 308,167 nationwide, while technology led in private sector job cuts with 154,445. Other sector with losses approaching 100,000 were warehousing and retail.
Despite the attention focused on President Trump’s tariffs regime, they were only cited nationally for 7,908 job cuts last year, with none announced in December.
New York experienced 109,030 announced losses, the second most of any state. Georgia was third at 80,893.
These latest figures follow a report from the Labor Department this week that businesses and government agencies posted 7.1 million open jobs at the end of November, down from 7.4 million in October. Layoffs also dropped indicating the economy is experiencing a “low-hire, low-fire” job market.
At the same time, the U.S. economy grew at an 4.3% annual rate in the third quarter, surprising economists with the fastest expansion in two years, as consumer and government spending, as well as exports, grew. However, the government shutdown, which halted data collection, may have distorted the results.
Still, December’s announced hiring plans also were positive. Last month, employers nationwide said they would hire 10,496 employees, the highest total for the month since 2022 when they announced plans to hire 51,693 workers, Challenger said.
The December plans contrasted sharply with the 12-month figure. Last year, U.S. employers announced they would hire 507,647 workers, down 34% from 2024.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
Business
Commentary: Yes, California should tax billionaires’ wealth. Here’s why
That shrill, high-pitched squeal you’ve been hearing lately? Don’t bother trying to adjust your TV or headphones, or calling your doctor for a tinnitis check. It’s just America’s beleaguered billionaires keening over a proposal in California to impose a one-time wealth tax of up to 5% on fortunes of more than $1 billion.
The billionaires lobby has been hitting social media in force to decry the proposed voter initiative, which has only started down the path toward an appearance on November’s state ballot. Supporters say it could raise $100 billion over five years, to be spent mostly on public education, food assistance and California’s medicaid program, which face severe cutbacks thanks to federal budget-cutting.
As my colleagues Seema Mehta and Caroline Petrow-Cohen report, the measure has the potential to become a political flash point.
The rich will scream The pundits and editorial-board writers will warn of dire consequences…a stock market crash, a depression, unemployment, and so on. Notice that the people making such objections would have something personal to lose.
— Donald Trump advocating a wealth tax, in 2000
Its well-heeled critics include Jessie Powell, co-founder of the Bay Area-based crypto exchange platform Kraken, who warned on X that billionaires would flee the state, taking with them “all of their spending, hobbies, philanthropy and jobs.”
Venture investor Chamath Palihapitiya claimed on X that “$500 billion in wealth has already fled the state” but didn’t name names. San Francisco venture investor Ron Conway has seeded the opposition coffers with a $100,000 contribution. And billionaire Peter Thiel disclosed on Dec. 31 that he has opened a new office in Miami, in a state that not only has no wealth tax but no income tax.
Already Gov. Gavin Newsom, a likely candidate for the Democratic nomination for president, has warned against the tax, arguing that it’s impractical for one state to go it alone when the wealthy can pick up and move to any other state to evade it.
On the other hand. Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Fremont), usually an ally of Silicon Valley entrepreneurs, supports the measure: “It’s a matter of values,” he posted on X. “We believe billionaires can pay a modest wealth tax so working-class Californians have Medicaid.”
Not every billionaire has decried the wealth tax idea. Jensen Huang, the CEO of the soaring AI chip company Nvidia — and whose estimated net worth is more than $160 billion — expressed indifference about the California proposal during an interview with Bloomberg on Tuesday.
“We chose to live in Silicon Valley and whatever taxes, I guess, they would like to apply, so be it,” he said. “I’m perfectly fine with it. It never crossed my mind once.”
And in 2000, another plutocrat well known to Americans proposed a one-time tax of 14.25% on taxpayers with a net worth of $10 million or more. That was Donald Trump, in a book-length campaign manifesto titled “The America We Deserve.”
“The rich will scream,” Trump predicted. “The pundits and editorial-board writers will warn of dire consequences … a stock market crash, a depression, unemployment, and so on. Notice that the people making such objections would have something personal to lose.” (Thanks due to Tim Noah of the New Republic for unearthing this gem.)
Trump’s book appeared while he was contemplating his first presidential campaign, in which he presented himself as a defender of the ordinary American. His ghostwriter, Dave Shiflett, later confessed that he regarded the book as “my first published work of fiction.”
All that said, let’s take a closer look at the proposed initiative and its backers’ motivation. It’s gaining nationwide attention because California has more billionaires than any other state.
The California measure’s principal sponsor, the Service Employees International Union, and its allies will have to gather nearly 875,000 signatures of registered voters by June 24 to reach the ballot. The opposition is gearing up behind the catchphrase “Stop the Squeeze” — an odd choice for a rallying cry, since it’s hard to imagine the average voter getting all het up about multibillionaires getting squoze.
The measure would exempt directly held real estate, pensions and retirement accounts from the calculation of net worth. The tax can be paid over five years (with a fee charged for deferrals). It applies to billionaires residing in California as of Jan. 1, 2026; their net worth would be assessed as of Dec. 31 this year. The measure’s drafters estimate that about 200 of the wealthiest California households would be subject to the tax.
The initiative is explicitly designed to claw back some of the tax breaks that billionaires received from the recent budget bill passed by the Republican-dominated Congress and signed on July 4 by President Trump. The so-called One Big Beautiful Bill Act will funnel as much as $1 trillion in tax benefits to the wealthy over the next decade, while blowing a hole in state and local budgets for healthcare and other needs.
California will lose about $19 billion a year for Medi-Cal alone. According to the measure’s drafters, that could mean the loss of Medi-Cal coverage for as many as 1.6 million Californians. Even those who retain their eligibility will have to pay more out of pocket due to provisions in the budget bill.
The measure’s critics observe that wealth taxes have had something of a checkered history worldwide, although they often paint a more dire picture than the record reflects. Twelve European countries imposed broad-based wealth taxes as recently as 1995, but these have been repealed by eight of them.
According to the Tax Foundation Europe, that leaves wealth taxes in effect only in Colombia, Norway, Spain and Switzerland. But that’s not exactly correct. Wealth taxes still exist in France and Italy, where they’re applied there to real estate as property taxes, and in Belgium, where they’re levied on securities accounts valued at more than 1 million euros, or about $1.16 million.
Switzerland’s wealth tax is by far the oldest, having been enacted in 1840. It’s levied annually by individual cantons on all residents, at rates reaching up to about 1% of net worth, after deductions and exclusions for certain categories of assets.
The European countries that repealed their wealth taxes did so for varied reasons. Most were responding at least partially to special pleading by the wealthy, who threatened to relocate to friendlier jurisdictions in a continent-wide low-tax contest.
That’s the principal threat raised by opponents of the California proposal. But there are grounds to question whether the effect would be so stark. For one thing, notes UC Berkeley economist Gabriel Zucman, an advocate of wealth taxes generally, “it has become impossible to avoid the tax by leaving the state.” Billionaires who hadn’t already established residency elsewhere by Jan. 1 this year have missed a crucial deadline.
The initiative’s drafters question the assumption that millionaires invariably move from high- to low-tax jurisdictions, citing several studies, including one from 2016 based on IRS statistics showing that elites are generally unwilling to move to exploit tax advantages across state lines.
As for the argument that billionaires could avoid the tax by moving assets out of the state, “the location of the assets doesn’t matter,” Zucman told me by email. “Taxpayers would be liable for the tax on their worldwide assets.”
One issue raised by the burgeoning controversy over the California proposal is how to extract a fair share of public revenue from plutocrats, whose wealth has surged higher while their effective tax rates have declined to historically low levels.
There can be no doubt that in tax terms, America’s wealthiest families make out like bandits. The total effective tax rate of the 400 richest U.S. households, according to an analysis by Zucman, his UC Berkeley colleague Emmanuel Saez, and their co-authors, “averaged 24% in 2018-2020 compared with 30% for the full population and 45% for top labor income earners.” This is largely due to the preferences granted by the federal capital gains tax, which is levied only when a taxable asset is sold and even then at a lower rate than the rate on wage income.
The late tax expert at USC, Ed Kleinbard, used to describe the capital gains tax as our only voluntary tax, since wealthy families can avoid selling their stocks and bonds indefinitely but can borrow against them, tax-free, for funds to live on; if they die before selling, the imputed value of their holdings is “stepped up” to their value at their passing, extinguishing forever what could be decades of embedded tax liabilities. (The practice has been labeled “buy, borrow, die.”)
Californians have recently voted to redress the increasing inequality of our tax system. Voters approved what was dubbed a “millionaires tax” in 2012, imposing a surcharge of 1% to 3% on incomes over $263,000 (for joint filers, $526,000). In 2016, voters extended the surcharge to 2030 from the original phase-out date of 2016. That measure passed overwhelmingly, by a 2-to-1 majority, easily surpassing that of the original initiative.
But it may be that California’s ability to tax billionaires’ income has been pretty much tapped out. Some have argued that one way to obtain more revenue from wealthy households is to eliminate any preferential rate on capital gains and other investment income, but that’s not an option for California, since the state doesn’t offer a preferential tax rate on that income, unlike the federal government and many other states. The unearned income is taxed at the same rate as wages.
One virtue of the California proposal is that, even if it fails to get enacted or even to reach the ballot, it may trigger more discussion of options for taxing plutocratic fortunes. One suggestion came from hedge fund operator Bill Ackman, who reviled the California proposal on X as “an expropriation of private property” (though he’s not a California resident himself), but acknowledged that “one shouldn’t be able to live and spend like a billionaire and pay no tax.”
Ackman’s idea is to make loans backed by stock holdings taxable, “as if you sold the same dollar amount of stock as the loan amount.” That would eliminate the free ride that investors can enjoy by borrowing against their holdings.
The debate over the California wealth tax may well hinge on delving into plutocrat psychology. Will they just pay the bill, as Huang implies would be his choice? Or relocate from California out of pique?
California is still a magnet for the ambitious entrepreneur, and the drafters of the initiative have tried to preserve its allure. Those who come into the state after Jan. 1 to pursue their ambitious dreams of entrepreneurship would be exempt, as would residents whose billion-dollar fortunes came after that date. There may be better ways for California to capture more revenue from the state’s population of multibillionaires, but a one-time limited tax seems, at this moment, to be as good as any.
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